The Impact of EU Free Trade Agreements on Economic Development and Regional Integration in Southern Africa

Transcription

1 The Impact of EU Free Trade Agreements on Economic Development and Regional Integration in Southern Africa The Example of EU-SACU Trade Relations Mareike Meyn PETER LANG EuropäischerVerlagderWissenschaften

2 Tableof Contents I. List of Abbreviations 21 II. ListofTables 25 III. List offigures 27 IV. ListofBoxes 30 V. List of Appendixes Introduction, Objectives and Methodology of the Study 1.1 Introduction Objectives and Scopeof the Study Main Theses and Methodology Organisation of the Study The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 2.1 Economic and Socio-Economic Indicators of SACU Member States Costs and Benefits arising from Regional Integration: Static and Dynamic Effects Foundation and Purpose: the SACU Agreement 1969 and the Role of South Africa Costs and Benefits of Regional Integration for SACU Members The Revised SACU Agreement: Challenges for the BLNS Countries SACU - Quo Vadisl SACU's External Trade Relations and Trade Regimes with the EU Conclusions SACU - EU Trade Relations: From Unilateral Preferences to Reciprocal Trade 3.1 Overview of the Objectives and Instruments of the Lome Conventions (I - IV) Theoretical Assumptions of the Lome Conventions The Internat Reasons for the Failure of the Lome Conventions 113

3 EU-BLNS Trade and the Impact of Lome Preferences on BLNS Countries' Exports BNS Countries' Agro-Based Exports to the EU: Diversification Efforts and Constraints The External Reasons for the Failure of Lome The EU-South Africa Free Trade Agreement and its Impact on the BLNS Countries and Regional Integration in Southern Africa The EU's Approach of "Economic Partnership Agreements" (EPAs) and its Implications for Regional Integration in Southern Africa What Should an "Optimal" EPA for Southern African Countries Look Like? Conclusions: Credibility and Commitment of the new EU Policy towards Southern Africa 160 The Contribution of Free Trade Agreements to Industrialisation, Regional Integration and Economic Development in the SACU Countries 4.1 What Can Industrialisation Strategies in Developing Countries Look Like? Links between Trade and Economic Development The Relevance of Manufacturing Value Added Activities for Economic Development in SACU SACU Countries' Manufacturing Activities and Industrialisation Policies The Contribution of FDI and Trade Preference Schemes to SACU Countries' Industrialisation Strategies SACU Countries Industrial Policy Options in a Liberalising Trading Environment The Contribution of Deeper Regional Integration and EU North-South Free Trade Agreements to Economic Development in SACU Conclusions: Industrialisation Policies, Regional Integration and the Impact of North-South Free Trade Agreements on SACU countries' Industrialisation Process 211

4 5 Cases of Successful Industrial Policy and the Contribution of EU Free Trade Agreements: Evidence from the South African Automotive Industry and the Namibian Fishing Industry Economic Relevance of the South African Automotive and the Namibian Fishing Industry and the Role of Free Trade Agreements with the EU Main Theses and Key Questionsof Case Studies Organisation of Case Studies Case Studv 1: The South African Automotive Component Industrv Structure of Case Study Economic Performance, Value Addition and Prospects for the South African Automotive Industry Automotive Trade and Trade Liberalisation with the EU Empirical Findings Methodology, Firm Profiles and Characteristics Exports to the EU and Development of Export Options Europe's Relevance as an Input Source Competition in the Domestic and International Markets Value Chain and Value Addedof Exports Companies' Strategy Summary of Empirical Findings thus far The South African Automotive Manufacturing Industry and the TDCA Conclusions: The Implications for Upgrading, Value Addition and Industrialisation Strategies when Including the South African Automotive Industry into a Free Trade Agreement with the EU Case Studv 2: The Namibian Fishing Industrv Structure ofcase Study Gains and Losses of Including Fisheries into Free Trade - Some Considerations from a Developing Country's Perspective Economic Performance of the Namibian Fishing Industry and Exports to the EU "Namibianisation" and other Management Policies in the Fishing Industry Empirical Findings Methodology, Firm Profiles and Characteristics Exports to the EU and Development of Export Options Europe's Relevance as an Input Source 311

5 Competition in the Domestic and International Markets Value Chain and Value Added of Exports Companies'Strategy Chances and Risks for Namibia of Entering into a Fishery Agreement with the EU Conclusions: The Implications for Upgrading, Value Addition and Industrialisation Strategies when Including the Namibian Fishing Industry into a Free Trade Agreement with the EU Overall Conclusions: Economic Performance. Industrial Policv and the Impact of Free Tfade with the EU: Common Grounds and Differences of the South African Automotive Industrv and the Namibian Fishing Industrv 331 Trade Capacity Building in the SACU countries and its Relevance for Development Oriented Trade Relations with the EU 6.1 Free Trade Agreements and Economic Development: Why is Trade Capacity Building Crucial? The Capacity of SACU Countries' Public and Private Sectors to Participate in Regional and International Trade Negotiations Case Studv 3: Trade Capacity in Botswana and Namibia Methodology and Characteristics of Interview Partners Awareness and Appraisal of the EU-South Africa Free Trade Agreement in Botswana and Namibia Technical Assistance and Training Needs Information and Participation Policy Appraisal on the Impact of the EU-South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Regional Integration and SACU's External Trade Relations Summary of Empirical Findings The Relevance of Trade Capacity Building for EU-SACU Trade Relations What Needs to be Done to Improve BLNS Countries' Capabilities to Participate Effectively in Trade Negotiations? 363

6 19 7 Synthesis, Recommendations and Outlook of the Study 7.1 Analytical and Strategie Syntheses Appraisal of the effects of EU Free Trade Agreements On Regional Integration within SACU On the Development Aspects of Future Trade Relations with the BLNS Countries On SACU Countries' Industrialisation Strategies and Industrial Policy Options On the South African Automotive and the Namibian Fishing Industry On SACU Countries Trade-Related Capacities Conclusions and Outlook 393 References 397 Appendix 433