Shipping 1Q13 Previews

Transcription

1 Sector Report 15-Apr-13 Shipping 1Q13 Previews Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: Platou Shipping index relative to key indices, rebased apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. okt. 12 des. 12 feb. 13 apr Platou Shipping (Rebased) OSEBX index (Rebased) Company Share Share price perf. Target price* 3m 6m 12m price Rec. AP Moller-Maersk % 0 % -8 % NEUTRAL Awilco LNG % -29 % -53 % 4.0 BUY Balt ic Trading % 7 % -19 % 6.0 BUY Capit al Product Part ners % 0 % -1% 10.0 BUY Cost amare % -2 % 7 % 16.0 NEUTRAL d'amico Int ernational Shipping % 36 % -12 % 0.70 BUY D/S Norden % 14 % 11 % 39.0 BUY Danaos % 24 % -5 % 3.5 NEUTRAL DHT Holdings % -25 % 431 % 7.0 BUY Diana Cont ainerships % -12 % -19 % 6.0 NEUTRAL Diana Shipping % 39 % 17 % 15.0 BUY Dryships % -22 % -48 % 3.5 BUY Euronav % -38 % -54 % 3.0 SELL Front line % -46 % -71% 2.5 NEUTRAL Front line % 69 % 85 % 10.0 BUY GasLog % -1% 6 % 14.0 NEUTRAL Genco Shipping % -41% -61% 1.0 SELL Golar LNG % -11 % -10 % 46.0 BUY Golden Ocean % 29 % 9 % 1.5 BUY Hoegh LNG % 11 % -7 % 12.0 NEUTRAL Navios Marit ime Acquisit ion % 22 % -4 % 5.0 BUY Nept une Orient Lines % -1% -19 % 1.2 NEUTRAL Nordic American Tankers % -1% -37 % 10.0 NEUTRAL Norwegian Car Carriers % -25 % -18 % 2.5 BUY Odf jell % 30 % -26 % 6.0 BUY Orient Overseas % 2 % -21% 54.0 NEUTRAL Pacific Basin % 12 % 4 % 5.0 NEUTRAL Scorpio Tankers % 39 % 15 % 13.0 BUY Ship Finance % 10 % 19 % 22.0 BUY Stealt hgas % 63 % 89 % 12.0 NEUTRAL Stolt -Nielsen % 5 % 6 % 24.0 NEUTRAL Teekay Tankers % -31% -57 % 4.0 BUY Thoresen Thai Agencies % 0 % 0 % 18.0 NEUTRAL Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA % 21 % 25 % 10.0 NEUTRAL Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding % % 6 % 37.0 BUY * The share price is in local currency, Target price is in USD except f or d'amico, Euronav, Maersk, Nept une Orient Lines, Norwegian Car Carriers, Orient Overseas, Pacif ic Basin and Thoresen Thai. Shipping 1Q13 Previews Investing in shipping stocks today is a bet on a cyclical recovery of freight rates over the next two years. Given the sharply lower fleet growth in most segments during the forecast period, we believe such a bet is attractive. The stocks that have done well the last months have been able to tie a story around acquisition of ships at historically low asset values, and we expect the winners this year will remain growth-oriented companies. We continue to favour product tankers and dry bulk shipping where demand growth is high and therefore should be able to absorb the overcapacity of ships faster than in other segment. Closures of refinery capacity in mature markets means trading distances for product tankers will increase, while China will be increasingly reliant on dry bulk imports because of constrained local production of iron ore and coal with new low-cost supply from Australia and Brazil opening up arbitrage opportunities. 1Q13 market review:product tankers enjoyed much better rates in 1Q, particularly for MRs that averaged $18,000 per day. We believe this reflects that US product exports are driving up trading distances, although seasonal refinery turnarounds helped as well. Dry bulk earnings remained at operating cost levels, although we have seen improved freight rates for the smaller Handysize, Supramax and Panamax vessels during March on the back of a strong South American grain season and rising port congestion. In the crude tanker sector, rates have struggled due to reduced OPEC production and declining crude imports to both USA and China. However, we expect the end of a heavy refinery maintenance period to lift Saudi crude exports in coming months, provided oil prices do not drop much further. The container shipping market saw flat box rates q/q but 16% higher y-y, which should help the container operators to avoid the dramatic losses seen during 1Q12. However, box rates have underperformed last year s level during April. In our view this is due to too high fleet growth and still struggling volumes and demand from Europe. LPG and LNG carriers saw rates slip in the first quarter due to lower export volumes whereas chemical tanker earnings were up 4% y-y. Recommendation changes:we have lifted our rating for Nordic American Tankers from Sell to Neutral following the recent equity raise, the alignment of management s incentives with other shareholders, and growth clearly on the agenda with recent investments. We have also lifted Diana Containerships from Sell to Neutral after the recent stock price decline. We have changed StealthGas from Buy to Neutral following the strong share price performance. Valuation: Tanker stocks (both crude and clean) today trade 1.4x NAV (simple peer group average) which we find implies around 16% higher asset values compared with broker quotes. Dry bulk stocks on the other hand trade on average 1.03x NAV. Since we are at the trough of the shipping cycle (with ship values historically low when inflation adjusted), we find that today s NAV is not very meaningful to base an investment on since it is fair to price in a recovery of asset values. Based on EV/EBITDA, the tanker peer group trades at 7x 15e while dry bulk on average trades at 3.5x 15e (both sectors based on mid-cycle rates of $30,000/day for Capesize and $43,000/day for VLCC). We reiterate our view from our Shipping Quarterly February 2013 that we believe both dry bulk and tankers will bottom out in 2013 and see a gradual recovery towards mid-cycle rates in Our top picks include d Amico Shipping, Frontline 2012, Golden Ocean, Navios Acquisition, Scorpio Tankers and Ship Finance. RS PLATOU MARKETS AS Haakon VII s gate 10 P.O. BOX 1474 Vika N-0116 Oslo, Norway Telephone Telefax office@platou.com NO MVA

2 1Q13 Expected reporting dates (source: Bloomberg) Company Rep/ date Tankers EURONAV SA April 16 CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS LP May 2 DHT HOLDINGS INC May 3 SCORPIO TANKERS INC May 3 NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS LTD May 6 D'AMICO INTERNATIONAL SHIPPI May 7 NAVIOS MARITIME ACQUISITION May 8 TEEKAY TANKERS LTD-CLASS A May 17 SHIP FINANCE INTL LTD May 24 FRONTLINE 2012 LTD May 29 FRONTLINE LTD May 31 Dry Bulk BALTIC TRADING LTD April 30 GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD April 30 DIANA SHIPPING INC May 3 D/S NORDEN May 15 THORESEN THAI AGENCIES PCL May 16 DRYSHIPS INC May 29 GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD May 31 PACIFIC BASIN SHIPPING LTD August 1 Container DANAOS CORP April 29 DIANA CONTAINERSHIPS INC May 2 COSTAMARE INC May 8 NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD May 14 AP MOELLER-MAERSK A/S-B May 17 ORIENT OVERSEAS INTL LTD August 8 Gas carriers STEALTHGAS INC May 22 AWILCO LNG AS May 23 HOEGH LNG HOLDINGS LTD May 23 GASLOG LTD May 28 GOLAR LNG LTD May 30 Chemical tankers ODFJELL SE-A SHS May 7 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD July 3 Car carriers WILH WILHELMSEN HOLDING-A May 8 NORWEGIAN CAR CARRIERS ASA May 31 Source: Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 2

3 Crude tanker market graphs VLCC spot earnings (USD/day) USD/day Suezmax spot earnings (USD/day) USD/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Aframax spot earnings (USD/day) Crude tanker earnings, quarterly USD/day '000 USD/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Avg VLCC Suezmax Aframax Source: LoneStar, Baltic Exchange, RS Platou Markets 3

4 Product tanker market graphs LR2 spot earnings (USD/day) LR1 spot earnings (USD/day) USD/day USD/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Avg USD/day MR spot earnings (USD/day) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec e Product tanker earnings, quarterly '000 USD/day Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 LR2 LR1 MR Source: Baltic Exchange, RS Platou Markets 4

5 Dry bulk market graphs Baltic Dry Index Capesize spot earnings (USD/day) Baltic Dry Index 2012/ Average Baltic Dry Index USD/day Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg ytd Avg Panamax spot earnings (USD/day) Dry bulk earnings, quarterly USD/day '000 USD/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 0 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Avg Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Source: Baltic Exchange, RS Platou, RS Platou Markets 5

6 Container market graphs Box rates per major trade lanes China Containerized Freight Index ($/TEU) USD/TEU /2013 ($/TEU) Average ($/TEU) 500 Sep 07 Feb 08 Jul 08 Dec 08 May 09 Oct 09 Mar 10 Aug 10 Jan 11 Jun 11 Nov 11 Apr 12 Sep 12 Feb Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 900 Intra-Asia CCFI Asia-Europe CCFI Transpacific CCFI Avg Asia-Europe rates (spot) USD/TEU Asia-USWC rates (spot) USD/FEU 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, RS Platou Markets 6

7 Industrial shipping market graphs VLGC spot earnings (USD/day) USD/day Chemical Tanker Earnings Index (incl. bunkers) Index (100 = mid-cycle) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Avg LNG shipping rates Spot 12m T/C Bunker fuel prices USD/day USD / ton Oct 05 May Dec Jul 07 Feb 08 Sep 08 Apr 09 Nov 09 Jun 10 Jan 11 Aug Mar Oct Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct cst bunker prices, Singapore 380cst bunker prices, Rotterdam Jan-13 Apr-13 Source: RS Platou, Baltic Exchange, RS Platou Markets 7

8 RS Platou Markets peer group TP Last M.Cap EV NAV P/ EV/ EV/EBITDA Yield % Rating USD* local USDm USDm USD* NAV ASSETS Tankers Capital Product Partners Buy d'amico International Shipping Buy DHT Holdings Buy Euronav Sell Frontline Neutral nmf Frontline 2012 Buy nmf Navios Maritime Acquisition Buy Nordic American Tankers Neutral Scorpio Tankers Buy Ship Finance Buy Teekay Tankers Buy Weighted average Dry bulk Baltic Trading Buy nmf Diana Shipping Buy Dryships Buy D/S Norden Buy Genco Shipping Sell nmf 1.43 nmf Golden Ocean Buy Pacific Basin Neutral Thoresen Thai Neutral Weighted average Container AP Moller-Maersk Neutral Costamare Neutral Danaos Neutral Diana Containerships Neutral Neptune Orient Lines Neutral Orient Overseas Neutral Weighted average (excl. Maersk) Gas carriers Awilco LNG Buy Hoegh LNG Neutral GasLog Neutral Golar LNG Buy StealthGas Neutral Weighted average Chemical tankers Odfjell Buy Stolt-Nielsen Neutral Weighted average Car carriers Norwegian Car Carriers Buy Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA Neutral W.Wilhelmsen Holding Buy Weighted average * NAV and TP in local currencies for Maersk, d'amico, Euronav, Neptune Orient Lines, Norwegian Car Carriers, Orient Overseas, Pacific Basin and Thoresen Thai. Source: RS Platou Markets estimates 8

9 Result Preview 15-Apr-13 AP Moller-Maersk Sector: Marine Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Recommendation: Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: NEUTRAL (unchanged) Target price (DKK): (unchanged) Next report date: Disclosure: Company description Danish conglomerate with diversification across a broad range of businesses including world-leading positions in container shipping, tankers, terminals, tugs and niche offshore supply services. Comprehensive oil & gas activities. Listed at OMX Copenhagen. Share price (DKK) in AP Moller-Maersk relative to key indices apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. 12 okt. 12 des. 12 feb. 13 AP Moller-Maersk OMX Copenhagen 20 (Rebased) OSE Transportation (Rebased) Shareholders Shares Votes A.P. Møller and Hustru 51.1 % 64.1 % Franklin Resources INC 4.2 % 6.5 % MC-Kinney Moeller Maersk 3.7 % 5.9 % Free Float 41.0 % 41.0 % Changes in estimates (DKKm) 2013E 2014E New Old Chg. New Old Chg. Oper. revenue % % EBITDA, adj % % EBIT, adj % % Net income, adj % % EPS, adj. (DKK) % % Company data (2013E) Share price (DKK) No. of shares (m) 4.4 Market cap. (DKKm) Net debt YE (DKKm) Enterprise value (DKKm) Analyst: Alex Gheorghe Tel: ag@platou.com Weak container results focus on Oil reserves update AP Moller-Maersk will report 1Q13 results on May 17. We expect focus to be on updated resource estimates for Maersk Oil and as always, the near term outlook for the struggling container market. We remain NEUTRAL. 1Q13 expectations: We look for EBITDA of DKK 16bn down from DKK 18bn in 4Q12 due to lower results from Maersk Line. Compared to preliminary Bloomberg consensus we are DKK 2bn lower on EBITDA level. Maersk Line: The container market in 1Q13 was much better than 1Q12 when Maersk Line posted a negative DKK 3.4bn net loss. Still, we look for a slightly negative result of DKK -0.13bn. We factor in 6% lower volumes y-y but 6% higher rates y-y (but flat rates vs. 4Q12). Compared with 4Q12 the result is negatively impacted by higher bunker costs. Maersk Oil: Updated reserves figures along with resources, perhaps with more granularity than previously disclosed, will be the focus with 1Q13 results. While production is expected to be weak at 232 mbbl/d, we forecast a rebound settling by 3Q13. More importantly, we will be watching for changes in pace and costs in developments going forward. Our 2013e EPS is maintained at DKK 4,380 for now. However, given the weaker than expected container market we see downside risk on our estimates should the May 1 container surcharges not be successful. We therefore maintain our Neutral recommendation. Key figures E 2014E 2015E Revenue (DKKm) EBITDA (DKKm) EBITDA, adj. (DKKm) EBIT, adj. (DKKm) Pre-tax profit, adj. (DKKm) Net income, adj. (DKKm) EPS, adj. (DKK) OCFPS (DKK) FCFPS (DKK) BVPS (DKK) Net asset value (NAV) (DKK) Dividend (DKK) EV/EBITDA, adj. (x) EV/EBIT, adj. (x) P/E, adj. (x) n.m P/OCF (x) EV/FCF (x) n.m. 9.6 n.m P/Book (x) P/NAV (x) n.m. n.m n.m. n.m. n.m. Dividend yield (%) Description of adjustments: Sale of assets, agio/disagio and gain/losses on financial instruments. Key Assumptions E 2014E 2015E Oil price (Brent USD/bbl) Asia-Europe spot rates $/TEU Maersk Line achieved box rates $/FEU

10 1Q13 Result preview AP Moller-Maersk (DKK bn) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13E Consensus avg. Platou vs. Cons. TCE Income (2) Operating expenses (67) (68) (67) (67) (64) EBITDA excl. one-offs (2) Gain/loss sale of assets Depreciation & amortization (7) (7) (9) (8) (7) EBIT (2) Associated companies Net interest (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Other financial income Pretax profit (2) Taxes (2) (7) (6) (4) (5) Minorities (1) (0) (0) (0) (0) Net profit (1) Net profit, adjusted (1) EPS EPS, adjusted (171) (131) Currency USD/DKK Net profit per segment Maersk Line (3.4) (0.1) Maersk Oil APM Terminals Maersk Drilling Maersk Supply Service Maersk Tankers (0.2) (0.0) (1.6) 0.0 (0.0) Damco SVITZER (0.5) 0.1 Maersk FPSOs and Maersk LNG Dansk Supermarked Other industrial Other/consolidation eliminations (1.0) (1.4) (0.6) (0.8) (0.8) Total net profit (before minority) Key value drivers Transported volumes (mill FEU) Average container freight rate (USD per FEU) Entitlement oil production (bpd 000) Oil price (USD/bbl) APM Terminals equity throughput (mill TEU) Source: Company, Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 10

11 Profit and loss (DKKm) E 2014E 2015E Total revenue Voyage expenses & commissions Time-charter equivalent Operating expenses EBITDA, adj Gain/loss sale of assets EBITDA Depreciation Amortization/Write down EBIT EBIT, adj Associated companies Net interest Gains/losses on securities or financial instruments Other financial Items Pre-tax profit Tax Minorities Result from discontinued operations/ Other Net income Adjustments after tax Adjusted net income EPS (DKK) EPS, adj. (DKK) Balance sheet (DKKm) E 2014E 2015E Long-term interest bearing assets Fixed assets Other long-term assets Long-term assets Other current assets Cash and liquid assets Current assets Total assets Equity Minorities Long term interest bearing debt Other long-term liabilities Long term liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Other short term liabilities Current liabilities Total liabilities and equity Working capital Net debt Cash flow (DKKm) E 2014E 2015E Pre-tax profit Associated companies Depreciation and amortization Payable tax /- Other operating items Cash flow from operations Change in working capital Operating cash flow Maintenance capex Growth capex Acquisition capex Sale of assets Cash flow from investments Free cash flow Dividend paid Share buy back Equity increase Cash flow from financing Other items Change in net debt

12 Result Preview 15-Apr-13 Awilco LNG Sector: Marine Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Recommendation: BUY (unchanged) Target price (USD): 4.0 (5.0) Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: Next report date: Disclosure: Company description Owns 3 LNG carriers built in and two newbuilds for 2013 delivery marketed for spot and term chartering in the LNG shipping market. Share price (NOK) in Awilco LNG relative to key indices apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. okt. 12 des. 12 feb. 13 apr. 13 Awilco 12 LNG OSEBX index (Rebased) OSE Transportation (Rebased) Shareholders Shares Votes Awilco AS 33.7 % 33.7 % Home Capital AS 7.9 % 7.9 % Astrup Fearnley AS 7.6 % 7.6 % Uthalden A/S 7.6 % 7.6 % Free Float 66.3 % 66.3 % Changes in estimates (USDm) 2013E 2014E New Old Chg. New Old Chg. Oper. revenue % % EBITDA, adj % % EBIT, adj % % Net income, adj % % EPS, adj. (USD) % % Company data (2013E) Share price (NOK) No. of shares (m) 67.8 Market cap. (USDm) 178 Net debt YE (USDm) 254 Enterprise value (USDm) 431 Waiting for contracts and financing Awilco LNG will report their 1Q13 figures on May 5 th. We are in line with consensus on estimates and expect main focus to be the newbuilds with 2H13 delivery. 1Q13 figures: We expect revenue of USD 10m and EBITDA of USD 5m, in line with consensus at USD 11m and USD 5m respectively. Only WillGas is on long term contract while WilEnergy is reported by brokers to have fixed two spot voyages, to Brunei and West Australia. We expect $40,000/day, hence, lower earnings for the Company q/q. WilPower is idle and will likely remain idle as we enter into the seasonally slow period over the summer. Consequently 2013 estimates are lowered as we model in WilPower being idle going forward. Newbuildings and financing: Management has guided newbuild contracts 3-6 months prior to vessel delivery, consequently we expect the first contract prior to summer. Duration and rate level will determine financing, but 70% debt financing should be achievable either fully through bank debt or in combination with bonds. Valuation: With at least $80,000/day on the newbuilds one could argue for USD 225m value of the newbuilds. With scrap value of USD 20m on the remaining 3 vessels and USD 36m contract value for WilGas we arrive at USD 4/share after USD 280m of capex. Furthermore, the 2x newbuilds alone should be able to provide USD 15m of dividend capacity, assuming 15 year debt profile. We lower target to USD 4/sh, but reiterate BUY. Key figures E 2014E 2015E Revenue (USDm) EBITDA (USDm) EBITDA, adj. (USDm) EBIT, adj. (USDm) Pre-tax profit, adj. (USDm) Net income, adj. (USDm) EPS, adj. (USD) OCFPS (USD) FCFPS (USD) BVPS (USD) Net asset value (NAV) (USD) Dividend (USD) EV/EBITDA, adj. (x) EV/EBIT, adj. (x) n.m P/E, adj. (x) n.m P/OCF (x) EV/FCF (x) n.m. n.m. n.m P/Book (x) P/NAV (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. Dividend yield (%) Description of adjustments: Sale of assets, agio/disagio and gain/losses on financial instruments Key Assumptions E 2014E 2015E Short term T/C, USD/Day Short term T/C, USD/Day old tonnage

13 1Q13 Result preview Awilco LNG (USDm) 1Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Platou 1Q13E Cons. avg. 1Q13E TCE Income Operating expenses (5) (6) (5) (5) (5) EBITDA excl. one-offs Gain/loss sale of assets Depreciation & amortization (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) EBIT Associated companies Net interest 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) Other financial income Pretax profit Taxes (1) (0) Minorities Net profit Net profit, adjusted EPS EPS, adjusted Dividend Source: Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 13

14 Profit and loss (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Total revenue Voyage expenses & commissions Time-charter equivalent Operating expenses EBITDA, adj Gain/loss sale of assets EBITDA Depreciation Amortization/Write down EBIT EBIT, adj Associated companies Net interest Gains/losses on securities or financial instruments Other financial Items -1 Pre-tax profit Tax Minorities Result from discontinued operations/ Other Net income Adjustments after tax Adjusted net income EPS (USD) EPS, adj. (USD) Balance sheet (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Long-term interest bearing assets Fixed assets Other long-term assets Long-term assets Other current assets Cash and liquid assets Current assets Total assets Equity Minorities Long term interest bearing debt Finance obligation Other long-term liabilities Long term liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Other short term liabilities Current liabilities Total liabilities and equity Working capital Net debt Cash flow (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Pre-tax profit Associated companies Depreciation and amortization Payable tax /- Other operating items Cash flow from operations Change in working capital Operating cash flow Maintenance capex Growth capex Acquisition capex Sale of assets Cash flow from investments Free cash flow Dividend paid Share buy back Equity increase Cash flow from financing Other items Change in net debt

15 Result Preview 15-Apr-13 Baltic Trading Sector: Marine Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Recommendation: BUY (unchanged) Target price (USD): 6.0 (unchanged) Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: Next report date: Disclosure: Company description Drybulk shipping company established in 2010 and based in New York. Listed at NYSE under the ticker BALT US. Share price (USD) in Baltic Trading relative to key indices Apr. 12 Jun. 12 Aug. 12 Oct. 12 Dec. 12 Feb. 13 Baltic Trading S&P 500 Index (Rebased) OSE Transportation (Rebased) Shareholders Shares Votes Genco 26.0 % Free Float 74.0 % 74.0 % Changes in estimates (USDm) 2012E 2013E New Old Chg. New Old Chg. Oper. revenue % % EBITDA, adj % % EBIT, adj % % Net income, adj % % EPS, adj. (USD) % % Company data (2012E) Share price (USD) 3.66 No. of shares (m) 22.3 Market cap. (USDm) 82 Net debt YE (USDm) 98 Enterprise value (USDm) 180 Will dividends be cut or not? We are in line with consensus on earnings expectations, but see potential for dividends to be cut in light of the weak dry bulk market. Nevertheless, with a strong balance sheet and low cash-breakeven we reiterate BUY and USD 6 target as we believe the dry bulk market will bottom out in Q13 numbers: We expect revenue of USD 6m and negative USD 0.2m of EBITDA, same as consensus expectations. Consensus expects EPS adj. of minus USD 0.23/share, in line with our negative USD 0.22/share estimate. Dividend cut? The dividend policy of BALT is net income less maintenance capex plus non-cash compensation and subject to reserves established by the board. Based on this we see the risk that dividends should be reduced to zero. However, due to the solid financial position of the Company and the limited cash drain from dividends it may be that the Company continues to distribute some cash to shareholders. If dividends are paid for 1Q13 it will be a signal that minimum dividends are USD 0.01/share, in our view. Valuation: We estimate mid-cycle NAV of USD 7.6/sh while EV/EBITDA target multiple of 7.5x on 20 year average rates gives USD 7/sh target. However, due to the management agreement we set our target USD 1 lower to reflect the cost of terminating the agreement. We reiterate BUY and USD 6/share target price. Key figures E 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (USDm) EBITDA (USDm) EBITDA, adj. (USDm) EBIT, adj. (USDm) Pre-tax profit, adj. (USDm) Net income, adj. (USDm) EPS, adj. (USD) OCFPS (USD) FCFPS (USD) BVPS (USD) Net asset value (NAV) (USD) Dividend (USD) EV/EBITDA, adj. (x) EV/EBIT, adj. (x) n.m. n.m. n.m. 9.8 P/E, adj. (x) 22.6 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 6.7 P/OCF (x) n.m EV/FCF (x) n.m n.m. n.m P/Book (x) P/NAV (x) n.m. n.m. 0.7 n.m. n.m. n.m. Dividend yield (%) Description of adjustments: Sale of assets, agio/disagio and gain/losses on financial instruments Key Assumptions E 2013E 2014E 2015E Capesize spot USD/Day 42,000 33,100 16,000 9,500 11,000 19,000 30,000 Supramax spot USD/Day 19,000 22,500 14,500 9,500 9,000 13,000 17,000 Global drybulk fleet utilization (%)

16 1Q13 Result preview Baltic Trading (USDm) 1Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Platou 1Q13E Consensu s avg. Platou vs. cons. TCE Income Operating expenses (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (0) EBITDA excl. one-offs 0 (0) 0 (0.2) (0.2) 0 Gain/loss sale of assets Depreciation & amortization (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) EBIT (3) (4) (3) (4) (5) 1 Associated companies Net interest (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Other financial income (0) (0) (0) - Pretax profit (4) (5) (4) (5) Taxes Minorities Net profit (4) (5) (4) (5) (4) (1) Net profit, adjusted (4) (5) (4) (5) (5) 0 EPS (0.20) (0.22) (0.19) (0.22) (0.19) (0.03) EPS, adjusted (0.20) (0.22) (0.19) (0.22) (0.23) 0.01 Dividend (0.01) Source: Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 16

17 Profit and loss (USDm) E 2013E 2014E 2015E Total revenue Voyage expenses & commissions Time-charter equivalent Operating expenses EBITDA, adj Gain/loss sale of assets EBITDA Depreciation Amortization/Write down EBIT EBIT, adj Associated companies Net interest Gains/losses on securities or financial instruments Other financial Items 0 0 Pre-tax profit Tax Minorities Result from discontinued operations/ Other Net income Adjustments after tax Adjusted net income EPS (USD) EPS, adj. (USD) Balance sheet (USDm) E 2013E 2014E 2015E Long-term interest bearing assets Fixed assets Other long-term assets Long-term assets Other current assets Cash and liquid assets Current assets Total assets Equity Minorities Long term interest bearing debt Finance obligation Other long-term liabilities Long term liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Other short term liabilities Current liabilities Total liabilities and equity Working capital Net debt Cash flow (USDm) E 2013E 2014E 2015E Pre-tax profit Associated companies Depreciation and amortization Payable tax /- Other operating items Cash flow from operations Change in working capital Operating cash flow Maintenance capex Growth capex Acquisition capex Sale of assets Cash flow from investments Free cash flow Dividend paid Share buy back Equity increase Cash flow from financing Other items Change in net debt

18 Result Preview 15-Apr-13 Capital Product Partners Sector: Marine Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Recommendation: BUY (unchanged) Target price (USD): 10.0 (unchanged) Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: Next report date: Disclosure: Company description The CPLP fleet consists of 25 vessels, mainly trading in the product tanker market. Share price (USD) in Capital Product Partners relative to key indices Apr. 12 Jun. 12 Aug. Oct. 12 Dec. Capital 12 Product Partners 12 S&P 500 Index (Rebased) OSE Transportation (Rebased) Feb. 13 Apr. 13 Shareholders Shares Votes Capital Maritime 25.6 % 25.6 % Kayne Anderson Capital 12.6 % 12.6 % Crude Carriers 4.7 % Free Float 74.4 % 74.4 % Changes in estimates (USDm) 2013E 2014E New Old Chg. New Old Chg. Oper. revenue % % EBITDA, adj % % EBIT, adj % % Net income, adj % % EPS, adj. (USD) % % Company data (2013E) Share price (USD) 8.55 No. of shares (m) 92.8 Market cap. (USDm) 794 Net debt YE (USDm) 446 Enterprise value (USDm) 1,240 Transparent cash flow coverage We expect CPLP to report their 1Q13 numbers May 2 nd. We expect numbers above consensus and support the recent fleet additions, building support for long term dividends. BUY and target USD 10/share reiterated. 1Q13 numbers: We expect USD 41m of revenue and USD 27m of EBITDA, somewhat above consensus at USD 39m and USD 26m respectively. The spread to consensus could likely be explained by our estimates including profit sharing contribution from some of the product tankers. Contract renewals: CPLP has 9 product tankers that are up for contract renewal in 2013 with average base rates below $14,000/day. Consequently we expect contracts to be renewed on higher rates, which could result in increased unit distribution during the year. Growth: In1Q13 CPLP acquired two 5,000 teu eco-vessels with long term contracts to Hyundai Merchant Marine at gross $29,350/day until 2025 for USD 130m. With 1.25% management fee on the gross rate we estimate return on equity of ~15% based on opex of $7,500/day, ~40% debt and 5% cost of debt with 25 year asset lifetime.we view this growth important for the Company as it offers transparency on long term cash flow and dividend distribution. Valuation: With operational cash flows financing the dividend we find 9% yield target fair, implying USD 10/sh. We reiterate BUY and USD 10/share target price. Key figures E 2014E 2015E Revenue (USDm) EBITDA (USDm) EBITDA, adj. (USDm) EBIT, adj. (USDm) Pre-tax profit, adj. (USDm) Net income, adj. (USDm) EPS, adj. (USD) OCFPS (USD) FCFPS (USD) BVPS (USD) Net asset value (NAV) (USD) Dividend (USD) EV/EBITDA, adj. (x) EV/EBIT, adj. (x) P/E, adj. (x) n.m. n.m P/OCF (x) EV/FCF (x) 46.4 n.m n.m P/Book (x) P/NAV (x) n.m. n.m n.m. n.m. n.m. Dividend yield (%) Dividend expectation is on a blended basis based on 68m common units and 15.6m Class B converted preferred units in 2012 and assumed conversion in 2013 Key Assumptions E 2014E 2015E VLCC spot USD/Day 28,000 34,500 17,000 21,000 20,000 25,000 43,000 Suezmax spot USD/Day 25,900 28,000 17,000 15,000 18,000 22,000 34,000 MR Clean USD/day 15,000 14,000 13,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 18,500 18

19 1Q13 Result preview Capital Product Partners (USDm) 1Q12 3Q12 4Q12E Platou 1Q13E Consens us avg. Platou vs. cons. TCE Income Operating expenses (14) (14) (13) (13) (13) (0) EBITDA adj (2) Gain/loss sale of assets Depreciation & amortization (12) (12) (55) (12) (13) 1 EBIT (31) (44) Associated companies Net interest (9) (4) (4) (5) (4) (0) Other financial income 1 (0) 0 - Pretax profit 3 7 (35) 11 9 (44) Net profit 3 7 (35) 11 8 (43) Net profit, adjusted EPS (0.42) (0.50) EPS, adjusted Dividend Source: Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 19

20 Profit and loss (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Total revenue Voyage expenses & commissions Time-charter equivalent Operating expenses EBITDA, adj Gain/loss sale of assets EBITDA Depreciation Amortization/Write down EBIT EBIT, adj Associated companies Net interest Gains/losses on securities or financial instruments Other financial Items Pre-tax profit Tax Minorities Result from discontinued operations/ Other Net income Adjustments after tax Adjusted net income EPS (USD) EPS, adj. (USD) Balance sheet (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Long-term interest bearing assets Fixed assets , , Other long-term assets Long-term assets ,134 1,021 1,105 1,059 1,013 Other current assets Cash and liquid assets Current assets Total assets ,196 1,070 1,161 1,121 1,118 Equity Minorities Long term interest bearing debt Finance obligation Other long-term liabilities Long term liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Other short term liabilities Current liabilities Total liabilities and equity ,196 1,070 1,161 1,121 1,118 Working capital Net debt Cash flow (USDm) E 2014E 2015E Pre-tax profit Associated companies Depreciation and amortization Payable tax /- Other operating items Cash flow from operations Change in working capital Operating cash flow Maintenance capex Growth capex Acquisition capex Sale of assets Cash flow from investments Free cash flow Dividend paid Share buy back Equity increase Cash flow from financing Other items Change in net debt

21 Result Preview 15-Apr-13 Costamare Sector: Marine Analyst: Frode Mørkedal Tel: Recommendation: Analyst: Herman Hildan Tel: NEUTRAL (unchanged) Target price (USD): 16.0 (15.0) Next report date: Disclosure: Company description Costamare Inc. is a non operating owner of containerships, chartering its vessels to liner companies and listed its common stock on NYSE in late Majority owned by Konstantakopoulos family and operates current fleet of 47 vessels including 10 newbuilds. Share price (USD) in Costamare relative to key indices apr. 12 jun. 12 aug. okt. 12 des. 12 feb. 13 apr Costamare S&P 500 Index (Rebased) Shareholders Shares Votes Konstantakopoulos Family 64.8 % 64.8 % Free Float 35.2 % 35.2 % Changes in estimates (USDm) 2013E 2014E New Old Chg. New Old Chg. Oper. revenue % % EBITDA, adj % % EBIT, adj % % Net income, adj % % EPS, adj. (USD) % % Company data (2013E) Share price (USD) No. of shares (m) 74.8 Market cap. (USDm) Net debt YE (USDm) Enterprise value (USDm) Dividend yield of 7% We expect CMRE to reiterate 27 cents per share in dividend for 1Q13. However, as two containership newbuilds were delivered at the end of the quarter with further 5 in 2Q-3Q13, we expect dividend per share to be hiked to 28 cents next quarter, giving implied annual dividend yield of 7%. 1Q13 expectations: We look for revenues of USD 94m and EBITDA of USD 58m, down slightly from 4Q12 EBITDA of USD 60m. The Company has guided on 5% higher opex ($7,150/day) for This is however 8% higher than 4Q12. Should opex come in steady, EBITDA would have been USD 2m higher. We look for adjusted EPS of 20 cents and DPS of 27 cents. Investments: We estimate excess cash of about USD 130m which could go to investments. Assuming 70% debt with 10 year contracts, this should be enough to buy ships worth USD 430m (e.g. four 13,000 TEU newbuilds.) Valuation: Trading at 10x 13e and 8x 14e EV/EBITDA seems rich when considering average age of fleet of about 12 years. However, dividend yield of 7% supports on the downside, and investment in new (or second-hand) container ships which can add to the distribution capacity should be a positive trigger, in our view. The market for asset providers is unfavourable, but CMRE is well positioned to grow at attractive prices. We reiterate Neutral due to fair valuation. Key figures E 2014E 2015E Revenue (USDm) EBITDA (USDm) EBITDA, adj. (USDm) EBIT, adj. (USDm) Pre-tax profit, adj. (USDm) Net income, adj. (USDm) EPS, adj. (USD) OCFPS (USD) FCFPS (USD) BVPS (USD) Net asset value (NAV) (USD) Dividend (USD) EV/EBITDA, adj. (x) EV/EBIT, adj. (x) P/E, adj. (x) P/OCF (x) EV/FCF (x) 17.8 n.m. n.m. n.m P/Book (x) P/NAV (x) Dividend yield (%) Description of adjustments: Sale of assets, agio/disagio and gain/losses on financial instruments Key Assumptions E 2014E 2015E 21

22 1Q13 Result preview Costamare Inc (USDm) 1Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13E Consensus avg. Platou vs. cons. TCE Income (2) Operating expenses (32) (33) (32) (36) EBITDA excl. one-offs (1) Gain/loss sale of assets (3) (6) Depreciation & amortizatio (22) (22) (22) (23) EBIT Associated companies Net interest (20) (19) (17) (20) Other financial income 3 0 (0) - Pretax profit Taxes Minorities Net profit (1) Net profit, adjusted (5) EPS (0.03) EPS, adjusted (0.07) Dividend Source: Company, Bloomberg, RS Platou Markets 22