JP J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference, March 2011

Transcription

1 JP J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference, March

2 TODAY S AGENDA Presentation of DS NORDEN (DNORD) Company profile Recent performance Fleet values Market expectations Full year financial guidance Q & A 2

3 SNAPSHOT OF 140 YEARS OF HISTORY One of the oldest listed shipping companies worldwide Up until 1970s primarily tonnage provider Entered dry cargo in the 1970s and tanker in 1980s 1871 Mads C. Holm founds NORDEN; first vessel delivered in Norient Product Pool established First vessel calls China & Japan 1884 Mads C. Holm co-founds Danish Ship Association New growth strategy based on longterm charters with purchase options Offices in Singapore, Annapolis, Shanghai, h Rio de Janeiro and Mumbai 1990 Tanker Department is established 1979 Fleet consists of bulk carriers only 1973 First of 5 standard bulk carriers delivered from Mitsui Number of act tive vessels

4 A LEADING GLOBAL TRAMP OPERATOR Dry Cargo Product tanker Capesize LR1 Post-Panamax MR Panamax Dry cargo offices Tank & Norient Product Pool offices Port Captains Site offices at yards Handysize Handymax Handysize One of the most modern fleets in our industry Global network of offices and port captains Very strong balance sheet 4

5 ASSET LIGHT BUSINESS MODEL Active fleet can quickly be adjusted to demand and market conditions Fleet employment based on portfolio view Significant asset upside through purchase options Flexible fleet Coverage and customer focus Capacity Employment Sale and purchase Technical competencies in-house Owned (28) Contracts of affreightment Customer relations Logistical efficiencies Option-based flexibility 5-7 year firm periods Chartered w. POP (42) TC out FFA market 2-10 year firm periods Quick and easy cover Flexibility and scale Arbitrage Single-trip charters Other chartered (139) Spot market * Active fleet per 31 Dec 2010 People Brand Systems 5

6 LAST 5 YEARS PERFORMANCE USD 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Earnings per share 16,8 16,7 5,8 5,2 41 4, Cash flows, operations and investments 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Profit from Return vessel on sales: Equity USD 70m 27% 70% 47% Dividend yield 12% 13% USDm Cash from operations Net cash from investments % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2,1% 6,2% 7,1% Excl. share buyback of 2% 3,3% 4,0% Calculated as dividend for the year divided by year-end share price 6

7 Financial strength = future profitable growth opportunities Strong capital structure Strong focus on cash flow generation Cash in low-risk deposit accounts and securities New-building orderbook fully covered by available cash USD 58m bank debt; all but 4 ships paid cash Equity ratio at 89% Low gearing of book equity - gearing 0.2 Cash and cash equivalents USDm Gearing Net committed cash USDm Adjusted Net Interest Bearing Assets* T/C obligations** -1,925-2,199 New building installments less proceeds from vessel sales** Revenue from coverage** 1,377 1,203 Net commitments * Adjusted for prepayments on vessel sales and currency swaps. ** Present values Gearing 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,

8 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2010 Comments Dry Cargo EBITDA up 80% compared to 2009 Up 23% excluding one-off items of USD 78 mill. Executed on strategy of covering exposure Tanker result substantially higher than expected in tough market O/A cost unchanged Depreciations rising along with growing own fleet Net profit impacted positively with USD 30 mill. value adjustments on hedging instruments 2010 Financials (USDm) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full Year CM II Group O/A Group EBITDA Group EBITDA Dry Cargo EBITDA Tanker Vessel sales Depreciation EBIT Group Net profit

9 FLEET VALUES Total theoretical NAV of USD 2.3 bn or DKK 308 per share Value of CPs with purchase options of DKK 42 per share No need for impairments of fleet values Value development Total theoretical NAV (USDm) Comparable value change during 2010 (excl. new vessels) Dry: + 9% Tanker: + 7% Fleet values include MtM value of USD 41 m. from 6 charterparties High proportion of large, modern designs Added value on new Tanker acquisitions + USD 22 m. Dry Cargo fleet Ta anker fleet N /B installment ts C harterparties with purchase optiu ons N et interest bea aring assets Other assts, ne t To otal theoretica al NAV Market Cap 9

10 2010 CORE FLEET CHANGES Improved quality and timing of asset base Strong growth in cash generating core fleet Core fleet changes Dry Cargo: Buy/sell to improve portfolio Sell prompt; invest deferred New fuel efficient designs Tanker: +27%; now 26% of group core fleet Growth in cash generating core fleet Active, cash generating core fleet up 40% in 2010 Core fleet development in 2010 (Owned vessels and long term charters with purchase options) Sold and delivered Restructurings Newbuildings Long term TC with Purchase options 2nd hand tonnage Dry Tanker Eco-types; two more done in Jan/Feb 2/3 of core fleet orderbook to deliver 2011 Core fleet end

11 DRY CARGO HIGHLIGHTS Total coverage up almost days since Q3 54% of capacity covered for Half of open exposure in the period is in Handysize 11

12 DRY CARGO MARKET - SHORT TERM Expected lower market average in but Q2 may see rebound due to strong grain trade In real oversupply situation, NORDEN is ready to invest Mil. dwt Dry Bulk Deliveries Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Planned Actuals non-deliveries (RHA) Source: RS Platou, Clarksons, 2011 Q1 actuals only for Jan 1st Mar 11th Pct 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Expected lower market average in 2011 Overall commodity demand growth remains very strong, but momentum is slowing High world prices make Chinese internal production competitive Gradual monetary policy tightening Record newbuilding deliveries expected in 2011 Despite all-time high deliveries in 2010, orderbook remains high at 46% of existing fleet Congestion, inefficiency and scrapping remain swing factors 12

13 DRY CARGO MARKET LONG TERM Continued high commodity prices expected to support investments in capacity expansions Brazilian exports will have major impact on market Monthly Chinese iron imports by source Planned iron ore export capacity expansions (mtpa) 2013 Large miners iron ore capacites (mtpa, % increase over 2010) Iron ore e, million tons per month Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Brazil Australia India % +67% +25% % 75 BHP RIO Vale FMG India Australia South Africa Brazil Sources: China Customs, World Steel Dynamics 13

14 TANKER HIGHLIGHTS Key achievements Realised TCE beat market again Scale benefits through h Norient Product Pool MOEPS significant efficiencies and bunker savings Growing capacity positioned for market recovery Acquired 6 modern second hand units and looking for more Investments in ice class vessels are paying off USD per day Ship pdays MR T/C rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q NORDEN ACM 1 yr TC Known capacity at the beginning of the year Adaption of capacity during the year 14

15 TANKER MARKET Global oil demand driven by emerging markets Chinese and Indian refineries expected to drive increases in throughput (Asia ex. OECD countries, mb/d) 21 +4% 20 +6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: IEA 15

16 TANKER SUPPLY The worst of supply growth is most likely behind us Expectations for 2011 is a 5% increase in the MR fleet and a 6% decline in the Handysize fleet 20% LR1 Fleet 16% MR Fleet 15% 12% Handysize Fleet 10% 9% 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% 2% 0% 0% -1% -5% -5% -6% -10% Source: SSY

17 OUTLOOK ON STRATEGY Strategy long term growth in challenging times is focused on leveraging the unique strengths of NORDENs brand name and balance sheet Group target: Provide superior total shareholder returns compared to peer group Dry cargo Grow cargo volumes by 15% p.a. Growth through strategic alliances Expansion of core fleet Tanker Grow owned fleet to 25+ units Beat spot market rates Current cargo book WOOD PRODUCTS OTHER CEMENT & CLINKER SLAGS SALT LIMESTONE GRAIN COAL BAUXITE

18 2011 FULL YEAR GUIDANCE Outlook USDm Dry Cargo Tanker Total Key assumptions Guidance based on current capacity and coverage EBITDA Profit from vessel sales EBIT Korea Line default on remaining 2.5 years of charter Gain from settlement of USD 9 m. included in earnings Only known and confirmed vessel sales are included in guidance CAPEX Open capacity in Tankers employed at rates of USD 13,500 14,000 per day Sensitivities For each segment, a +/- 10% change in the forward curve will increase / reduce earnings by USD 10 mill. 18

19 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements reflecting the management s present judgment of future events and financial results. Statements relating to the remainder of 2011 and subsequent years are subject to uncertainty, and NORDEN s actual results may therefore differ from the projections. Factors that may cause such variance include, but are not limited to, changes in macro-economic and political conditions, particularly in the Company s principal markets; changes to the Company s rate assumptions and operating costs; volatility in rates and tonnage prices; regulatory changes; any disruptions to traffic and operations as a result of external events, etc. 19

20 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Q&A Session 20

21 BACK UP 21

22 DRY CARGO FLEET OVERVIEW NORDEN's Dry Cargo fleet at 31 December 2010 Post- Capesize Vessel type Panamax Panamax Handymax Handysize Size (dwt) >150, , , , ,000 Length (meter) Main cargoes Iron ore, coal Iron ore, coal Iron ore, coal, Iron ore, coal, Cement, grains & bauxite steel, bauxite, cement steel, salt, petcoke, alumina Vessels in operation Owned vessels A Chartered vessels with purchase option Total active core fleet Chartered vessels without purchase option Total active fleet Vessels to be delivered Owned vessels B Chartered vessels with purchase option Total for delivery to core fleet Chartered vessels without purchase option Total for delivery to active fleet Total gross fleet Total chartered with purchase option Global fleet (no.) 896 n.a On order, global fleet (no.) 616 n.a Source: R.S. Platou A Of which 1 unit sold B Of which 2 units in 50%-owned joint venture 22

23 TANKER FLEET OVERVIEW NORDEN's Tanker fleet at 31 December 2010 Vessel type LR1 MR Handysize Size (dwt) 60-75, , ,000 Length (meter) Main cargoes Fuel and Fuel and Fuel and heating oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha heating oil, gasoline, veg. oil, diesel heating oil, gasoline, veg. oil, diesel Vessels in operation Owned vessels C hartered vessels with purchase option Total active core fleet C hartered vessels without purchase option Total active fleet Vessels to be delivered Owned vessels C hartered vessels with purchase option Total for delivery to core fleet C hartered vessels without purchase option Total for delivery to active fleet Total gross fleet Total chartered with purchase option Global fleet (no.) On order, global fleet (no.) Source: SSY 23

24 FLEET VALUES AND NAV Fleet values (before tax) at 31 December 2010 USD million Owned (active and newbuildings) Calculated value of charter parties with purchase and extension option Dry cargo Number Carrying amount/ cost Market value* Added value Number Charter party Purchase and extension option Value of charter party and purchase option C apesize Post-Panamax Panamax Handymax Handysize Tankers MR Handysize** Total Net Asset Value at 31 December 2010 USD million DKK per share Equity excl. minority interests per share Added value own fleet -5-1 Net Asset Value Calculated value of charter parties with purchase and extension option Total theoretical NAV Note: * Including joint ventures, assets held for sale and charter party, if any ** Excluding the value of 1 purchased secondhand vessel to be delivered during 1st quarter

25 2010 COMMODITIES AND GEOGRAPHIES Geographical distribution of imports (2010) Transports, Dry Cargo 2010 Western Europe China Other India North America South America Other Asia Japan Coal Grain Cement and clinker Iron ore Salt Other 100% 90% 80% 70% 20% 60% 50% 40% 30% 7% 8% 45% 20% 9% 10% 12% 0% NORDEN Market 25

26 COVERAGE AND CAPACITY DRY CARGO Capacity and coverage, at 31 December 2010 Dry Cargo Gross capacity Ship days Costs for gross capacity (USD per day) C apesize Post-Panamax Panamax Handymax Handysize Total Coverage Ship days Revenue from coverage (USD per day) C apesize Post-Panamax Panamax Handymax Handysize Total Coverage in % C apesize 101% 50% 38% 0% Post-Panamax 50% 0% 0% 0% Panamax 120% 96% 61% 32% Handymax 78% 52% 26% 7% Handysize 40% 18% 12% 8% Total 85% 46% 26% 9% 26

27 COVERAGE AND CAPACITY TANKER Capacity and coverage, at 31 December 2010 Tanker Gross capacity Ship days Costs for gross capacity (USD per day) LR MR Handysize Total Coverage Ship days Revenue from coverage (USD per day) LR MR Handysize Total Coverage in % LR1 4% 0% 0% 0% MR 34% 11% 6% 0% Handysize 40% 8% 0% 0% Total 36% 10% 3% 0% 27

28 DRY CARGO FLEET NORDEN is active within 5 drycargo segments, offering the highest possible flexibility to cargo clients Future fleet expansion mainly in Handysize and Handymax Vessel type Size (DWT) Typical length Main cargoes Capesize >150, metres Iron ore Post-Panamax , metres Iron ore and coal Panamax 65-90, metres Iron ore, coal grain and bauxite Edit / no cranes Handymax 40-65, metres Iron ore, coal, bauxite, cement clinker, grain, steel and fertilizer Handysize 25-40, metres Cement clinker, grain, steel, petcoke, fertilizer, salt, alumina, scrap, concentrates 28

29 TANKER FLEET - Active within 3 tanker vessel types - Exited crude oil in 2007, now purely focused on products - In a joint venture with INTERORIENT, NORDEN operates approx. 70 vessels Vessel type Size (DWT) Typical length Main cargoes LR , metres Fuel oil, heating oil, gasoline, diesel, naphhta, jetfuel MR 42-60, metres Fuel oil, heating oil, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, jetfuel, vegoil Handysize 27-42, metres Fuel oil, heating oil, gasoline, diesel, naphtha, jetfuel, vegoil 29

30 THE SHARE (DNORD) Master data Composition of shareholders Shareholder capital DKK 44,600,000 Number of shares and denomination 44,600,000 shares of DKK 1 17,751 registrered shareholders Approx. 37% international ownership Approx. 57% effective free float Classes of shares 1 Voting and ownership restrictions None Per November 2010 NASDAQ OMX Stock exchange Copenhagen 12,5 Ticker symbol DNORD 26,6 26,4 ISIN code DK ,9 Bloomberg code DNORD.DC 17,9 5,7 A/S Motortramp POLYSHIPPING AS NORDEN, treasury shares Other top 20 shareholders Other registered Non-registered Reuters code DNORD.CO 30