Financial Results Q1 2009

Transcription

1 Millicom International Cellular S.A. Financial Results Q April 21st, 2009 Mikael Grahne François-Xavier Roger

2 : : Highlights Significant negative pressure from Forex, especially in Africa Margins improving in Q1 09 Strong VAS growth Market share stabilization Slow down of growth in Local currency Positive Operating Free Cash Flow Lower churn Economic Drivers Management Drivers 2

3 : : Financial Highlights US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 Change Subscribers ('000) 33,621 26,075 29% Revenues % EBITDA % EBITDA margin 44.5% 42.3% +219 bp Net Profit % Capex % Capex% of revenues 25% 33% Free Cash Flow * % * EBITDA - CAPEX - WC movements - Interest - Taxes - Corp. Costs Improvement of EBITDA margin by 219 bp 3

4 : : Revenue growth Forex impact US$m % 72 6% - 9% % Revenue Q1 08 Underlying performance AMNET/ NAVEGA Forex impact Revenue Q1 09 Forex loss of 9% Revenue growth from underlying performance of 9%

5 : : Revenue growth Forex effect by region Revenue Revenue Local currency growth Forex Acquisitions US$m Q1 08 Q1 09 $m growth $m growth $m growth Growth Central America % -4-1% % South America % % 237 2% Africa % % 172 5% Asia % -1-2% 68 7% AMNET 43 6% 43 Total MIC % -70-9% 45 6% 847 6% Significant Forex impact in South America and Africa South America +16% Africa +25% in local currency 5

6 : : EBITDA growth Forex impact US$m % 5% % % EBITDA Q1 08 Underlying performance AMNET/ NAVEGA Forex impact EBITDA Q1 09 Forex loss of 8% EBITDA growth from underlying performance of 14%

7 : : EBITDA growth Forex effect by region EBITDA EBITDA Local currency Forex Acquisitions US$m Q1 08 Q1 09 $m growth $m growth $m growth Growth Central America % -3-2% % South America % -8-11% 94 31% Africa % % 59 11% Asia % 0-1% 24-3% AMNET 16 6% 16 Total MIC % -24-8% 17 5% % South America +42% Africa +36% in local currency 7

8 : : Revenue split by category US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ Local currency growth growth Airtime % 7% % of Mobile Revenues 78% 88% VAS/SMS/3G % 45% % of Mobile Revenues 15% 12% Other (*) % 66% Total Revenues % 15% (*) Telephone & Equipment + Broadband VAS/SMS/3G revenue growth 45% YoY in local currency VAS/SMS/3G revenue 15% of mobile revenue 8

9 : : Total Subscriber growth % 58% 53% 38% 29% Closing Subscribers YoY change Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Subscribers +29% YoY 9

10 : : Churn evolution 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.2% 3.5% 5.4% 4.9% 8.0% 7.1% 3.7% 3.9% 5.5% 4.9% Q4 08 Q % CA SA Africa Asia MIC TOTAL Churn decreasing by 0.6 percent 10

11 : : Impact of economic crisis EM Economies affected: - slow-down of remittances in Central America (-8% in Jan-Feb 09 YoY) - drop in raw material prices - decline in tourism Change in consumer behavior : - more on-net calls - fewer cross-net calls - less roaming - reduced incoming international calls - more buying on promotion - increase in multiple SIM usage Average ARPU in local currency down by 3.2% in Q1 09 vs. Q

12 : : Managing through the crisis subscriber segmentation with differentiated service offerings deeper affordability through lower denominations for reloads / scratch cards development of loyalty programs reload promotions with free benefits (airtime, SMS ) 12

13 Click to add title Quarterly Highlights

14 : : Quarterly Highlights Central America US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ Local currency growth growth Subscribers ('000) 11,534 9,787 18% % of total MIC 34% 38% Revenues % -3% % of total MIC 39% 43% EBITDA % -1% % of total MIC 49% 55% EBITDA margin 56% 55% +91 bp Capex % Capex% of revenues 8% 20% Free Cash Flow

15 : : Quarterly Highlights South America US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ Local currency growth growth Subscribers ('000) 7,735 6,464 20% % of total MIC 23% 25% Revenues % 16% % of total MIC 28% 29% EBITDA % 42% % of total MIC 25% 21% EBITDA margin 40% 31% 826 bp Capex % Capex% of revenues 16% 30% Free Cash Flow

16 : : Quarterly Highlights Africa US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ Local currency growth growth Subscribers ('000) 9,813 6,441 52% % of total MIC 29% 25% Revenues % 25% % of total MIC 20% 21% EBITDA % 36% % of total MIC 16% 16% EBITDA margin 34% 32% 242 bp Capex % Capex% of revenues 62% 53% Free Cash Flow

17 : : Quarterly Highlights Asia US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ Local currency growth growth Subscribers ('000) 4,539 3,383 34% % of total MIC 14% 12% Revenues % 8% % of total MIC 8% 8% EBITDA % -2% % of total MIC 6% 8% EBITDA margin 36% 40% -407 bp Capex * % Capex% of revenues 38% 68% Free Cash Flow

18 : : Quarterly Highlights Amnet US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 $ growth Revenues 43 0 #DIV/0! % of total MIC 5% 0% EBITDA 16 0 #DIV/0! % of total MIC 4% 0% EBITDA margin * 37% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Capex ** 14 0 #DIV/0! Capex% of revenues 32% #DIV/0! Free Cash Flow 1 * EBITDA margin depressed by one-off restructuring costs; EBITDA margin on recurring basis is 42% ** High Capex level due to phasing; Capex level in Q1 does not reflect outlook for full

19 : : Amnet - Highlights '000 Q1 09 Q3 08 Growth Subscribers - Cable TV % Subscribers- Broadband % Total Revenue Generating Units % Homes Passed 1,206 1,081 12% Bidirectional Home Passed % 73% 61% Broadband subscribers growth of 22% Homes passed growth of 12% Market Share Cable TV Broadband El Salvador 61% 22% Costa Rica 50% 21% Honduras 25% 49% Leading provider of cable and Broadband internet services in El Salvador, Costa Rica and Honduras 19

20 Financial review

21 : : Quarterly Capex % 45% 38% 51% 25% Capex Capex % of rev Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Active management of Capex 21

22 : : Quarterly Depreciation Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Total Depreciation (USD m) Depreciation stabilizing through control of Capex 22

23 : : Quarterly Net Debt/EBITDA ratio Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Stabilization of debt at low level 23

24 : : Debt maturity as at Less than 1 year % notes years 2-3- years 3-4 years 4-5 years more than 5 Debt maturity (USD m) Average maturity above 3 years 24

25 : : Quarterly Interest expense % 43 9% % 50 10% 43 8% Total interest cost Effective rate * Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Total Interest expense (USD m) * Due to change of estimate of HY notes early redemption costs Benefit of declining rates on variable rate debt portion 25

26 : : Taxes US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 PBT Taxes Effective tax rate 25% 22% Positive country mix and tax planning 26

27 : : Quarterly EPS Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 * excluding discontinued operations and impact of DTA in Colombia EPS Normalized EPS * Normalized EPS increase of 19% vs Q408 27

28 : : Free Cash flow 150 Free Cash Flow (US$m)* (50) (150) Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 * E BIT DA - Capex + /- W C- Interests - T axes - Corporate costs Positive Free Cash Flow: 5.7% of revenues in Q

29 : : Free Cash Flow by region Q108 0 Q (26) (24) (10) (19) -100 (64) Central America South America Africa Asia Africa still in investment position 29

30 : : Cash flow US$m Q1 09 Q1 08 Net cash provided by operating activities Cash used by investing activities Cash (used) provided by financing activities Net cash from continuing operations Discontinued operations -3-6 Exchange rate changes Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents, ending 729 1,212 30

31 : : Outlook Full Year 2009 Stabilization of EBITDA Margin at current level Capex around US$m 850 Positive Free Cash Flow 31

32 A strategic review of Asian assets will be carried out and could lead to the disposal of part or all of these operations 32

33 Click to add title Appendix 33

34 : : Subscribers contribution by region Q1 09 Africa 29% Asia 14% SAM 23% CAM 34% Africa Q1 08 Asia 13% CAM 37% From 25% to 29% of total MIC subscribers Africa 25% SAM 25% 34

35 : : Revenue contribution by region Q1 09 Africa 20% SAM 28% Asia 8% CAM 39% AMNET 5% Q1 08 Africa 21% Asia 8% CAM 42% SAM 29% 35

36 : : EBITDA contribution by region Q1 09 Africa 16% Asia 6% CAM 49% SAM SAM 25% Q1 08 Africa 16% Asia 7% AMNET 4% Increasing contribution in Q1 09 SAM 21% CAM 56% 36

37 : : Capex contribution by region Q1 09 Africa 50% Q1 08 Asia 12% Asia 16% CAM 13% AMNET 7% CAM 25% SAM 18% Africa From 33% to 50% of total Capex Africa 33% SAM 26% 37

38 : : Geographical presence Central America: 28 m South America: 61 m Africa*: 164 m Asia: 41 m Mobile operations pops under license*: 294m Amnet: 38m Guatemala 14m El Salvador 6m Honduras 8m Costa Rica 4m Nicaragua 6m Guatemala 14m El Salvador 6m Senegal 12m Chad 10m Laos 6m Cambodia 14m Ownership: 55.0% #1 of 3 Total of 4.7 m subscribers Ownership: 100% #1 of 5 Total of 2.6 m subscribers Ownership: 100% #2 of 3 Total of 2.0 m subscribers Ownership: 100% #2 of 2 Total of 0.7 m subscribers Ownership: 74.1% #2 of 4 Total of 0.3 m subscribers Ownership: 58.4% #1 of 6 Total of 2.2 m subscribers Nicaragua 6m AMNET Costa Rica 4m AMNET Sierra Leone 6m Rwanda 10m Ownership: 87.5% License acquired in November 2008 Honduras 8m Ownership: 100% Asset held for sale Ownership: 66.7% #1 of 4 Total of 4.3 m subscribers Bolivia 10m Ownership: 100% #2 of 3 Total of 1.6 m subscribers Paraguay 6m Ownership: 100% #1 of 4 Total of 2.8 m subscribers Colombia 45m Ownership: 50% + 1 share #3 of 3 Total of 3.3 m subscribers Ghana 24m Ownership: 100% #2 of 5 Total of 2.9 m subscribers Democratic Republic of the Congo 67m Ownership: 100% #3 of 5 Total of 1.2 m subscribers Tanzania 40m Ownership: 100% #3 of 6 Total of 2.7 m subscribers Mauritius 1m Ownership: 50.0% #2 of 3 Total of 0.4 m subscribers Sri Lanka 21m Ownership: 100% #2 of 5 Total of 2.1 m subscribers * Includes license in Rwanda not yet operational and excludes Sierra Leone an asset held for sale 38

39 : : Penetration rates Asia Avg penetration 33% CAM Avg penetration 80% SAM Avg penetration 84% Africa Avg penetration 21% MIC Avg penetration 41% Cambodia Guatemala El Salvador Sri Lanka Bolivia Honduras Chad Paraguay Colombia DRC Rwanda Ghana Mauritius Senegal MIC Tanzania Millicom Laos Penetration % Low penetration in Asia and Africa = future growth opportunities 39

40 : : Market share evolution: Q1 09 Q4 08 Asia Avg Market Share 34% CAM Avg Market Share 53% SAM Avg Market Share 15% Africa Avg Market Share 29% MIC Avg Market Share 28% % Market share Cambodia Millicom Laos Sri Lanka El Salvador 48 Tanzania Ghana Mauritius Senegal DRC Chad Paraguay Colombia Bolivia Honduras Guatemala MIC Q4 08 Q1 09 Increase Laos El Salvador (market leader) Guatemala (market leader) Bolivia DRC Senegal Tanzania Stable MIC Colombia Paraguay (market leader) Chad Mauritius Decrease Cambodia (market leader) Sri Lanka Honduras (market leader) Ghana 40

41 : : Population Coverage Availability Asia Avg Population coverage 68% CAM Avg Population coverage 92% SAM Avg Population coverage 77% Africa Avg Population coverage 42% Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Sri Lanka Millicom Laos Cambodia Colombia Bolivia DRC Chad Paraguay Tanzania Ghana Mauritius Senegal Population coverage %

42 : : Affordability Best Value for money Low denomination reloads Affordability Price leadership Per second billing 42

43 : : Number of Outlets ( 000) Accessibility % 200 0% 192 1% % 70 Asia CAM SAM Africa Growth vs Q4 08 (%) No of outlets Q1 09 Total number of Outlets : 636 K 43

44 : : Q1 09 Market Overview by Segment Millicom Segments Central America South America Africa Asia Amnet Total Market Overview Population (million)* Mobile Penetration** 80.1% 84.0% 21.0% 32.7% 41.3% Operational Data Total Subs. (000) 11,534 7,735 9,813 4,539 33,621 Attributable Sub (000) 8,008 7,735 9,605 3,636 28,984 Capex Churn 3.5% 4.9% 7.1% 3.9% 4.9% Cell sites (Mar-09) 4,076 4,102 3,070 2,731 13,979 Outlets 000 (Mar-09) Key Financials (Attributable) Revenue ($m) EBITDA ($m) EBITDA Margin 56% 40% 34% 36% 37% 44% * Population figures - CIA The World Fact Book (2007 est.) ** Penetration based on interconnect includes Rwanda 44

45 : : Market Overview by Country Latin America Central America AMNET South America El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Bolivia Colombia Paraguay Shareholding 100.0% 55% (p) 66.7% (p) 100.0% 100.0% 50% + 1 share 100.0% License Period (yrs) 20 yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr yrs renewal Date of Expiry Market Overview Population (M) GDP per Pop (PPP) $ 6,400 5,400 3,700 4,700 9,000 4,300 Mobile Penetration 96% 71% 84% 45% 93% 79% Market Position One of Five One of Three One of Four Two of Three Three of Three One of Four Market Share 46% 48% 66% 35% 8.0% 55% Operational Data Total Subscribers / RGUs 2,593,310 4,677,643 4,263, ,935 1,601,983 3,331,637 2,801,435 Cell sites at y-e , Cell sites at Mar , Pop coverage at Mar 09 89% 94% 91% 88% 73% 91% Other Operators Digicel America Movil America Movil Entel America Movil Personal America Movil Telefonica Digicel NuevaTel Telefonica America Movil Telefonica Honducel Vox Red (p): proportionally consolidated 45

46 : : Market Overview by Country Africa Chad DRC Ghana Mauritius Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Shareholding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 50% (p) 87.5% (p) 100.0% 100.0% License Period (yrs) 10 yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr 2000* 15 yrs fr yrs fr yrs fr 2007 Date of Expiry Market Overview Population (million) GDP per pop (PPP) $ 1, ,500 12, ,800 1,400 Mobile Penetration 15% 9% 45% 75% 11% 43% 23% Market Position Two of Two Three of Five Two of Five Two of Three Not launched Two of Three Three of Six Market Share 45% 21% 27% 43% Not launched 37% 29% Operational Data Total Subscribers 691,395 1,192,759 2,875, ,183 1,968,601 2,669,331 Cell sites at y-e Cell sites at Mar Pop coverage at Mar 09 52% 15% 73% 99% 67% 58% Other Operators Zain Zain MTN Cellplus MTN France Telecom Vodacom Vodacom Ghana Telecom MTMC Rwandatel Zain CCT H. Whampoa Zantel Standard Zain TTCL Mobile BOL (p): proportionally consolidated * Amended and extended by one year in

47 : : Market Overview by Country Asia Cambodia Laos Sri Lanka Shareholding 58.4% (p) 74.1% 100.0% License Period (yrs) 35 yrs from yrs from yrs fr 2008* Date of Expiry Market Overview Population (million) GDP per pop (PPP) $ 2,100 2,100 4,400 Mobile Penetration 31% 18% 38% Market Position One of Six Two of Four Two of Five Market Share 51% 22% 26% Operational Data Total Subscribers 2,172, ,493 2,111,295 Cell sites at y-e Cell sites at Mar 09 1, Pop coverage at y-e 08 68% 26% 81% Other Operators CamShin Lao Telecom Dialog Samart ETL Mobitel Viettel Star Telecom Hutchison Telecom Starcell Cadcom (p): proportionally consolidated * Already renewed 47

48 Thank You!