Etisalat Group. Aspire Forward. Investor Presentation. May 2016

Transcription

1 Etisalat Group Investor Presentation May 2016 Aspire Forward

2 Disclaimer Emirates Telecommunications Group Company PJSC and its subsidiaries ( Etisalat Group or the Company ) have prepared this presentation ( Presentation ) in good faith, however, no warranty or representation, express or implied is made as to the adequacy, correctness, completeness or accuracy of any numbers, statements, opinions or estimates, or other information contained in this Presentation. The information contained in this Presentation is an overview and should not be considered as the giving of investment advice by the Company or any of its shareholders, directors, officers, agents, employees or advisers. Each party to whom this Presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the Company after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary. Where this Presentation contains summaries of documents, those summaries should not be relied upon and the actual documentation must be referred to for its full effect. This Presentation includes certain forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks of uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. 2

3 Agenda 1. Key Company Highlights 2. Financial Overview 3. Appendix 3

4 1. Key Company Highlights

5 Key Company Highlights 1 Most valuable Telecom Operator With Largest Market Cap among Middle East & Africa Telcos 5 2 Highly Rated Telco (Aa3/AA-/A+) with Low Leverage Leading Telecom Operator With highest revenue and EBITDA among Middle East & Africa Telcos 4 Strong FCF Profile with Consistent History of Returning Capital to Shareholders 3 Diversified Operator with Exposure to Attractive and High Growth Markets Across Africa and Asia 5

6 1 Most Valuable Telecom Operator in the Middle East and Africa Top Telecom Companies in ME & Africa Top 10 GCC Companies (1) Top 10 UAE Companies (1) Etisalat $45bn SABIC $66bn Etisalat $45bn STC $34bn Etisalat $45bn DP World $15bn MTN Group $19bn STC $34bn FGB Bank $15bn Vodacom Maroc Tel $17bn $12bn Qatar National Bank $32bn Emirates NBD $12bn Turk Cell $9bn Al Rajhi Bank $25bn Emaar Proporties $12bn Du $8bn Saudi Electricity $18bn NBAD $12bn Ooredoo $8bn Industries Qatar $17bn Emaar Malls $10bn Mobily $6bn FGB Bank $15bn ADCB $9bn Zain Group Vodafone Qatar $5bn $3bn Kingdom Holding $12bn DIB $6bn Global Telecom $2bn Emaar Proporties $12bn Aldar Properties $5bn Source: Bloomberg Data as at 5 May 2016 (1) Ranking by Market Cap 6

7 2 Leading Telecom Operator in the Middle East and Africa FY 2015 Revenue (USD bn) Top 10 Telecom Companies in Middle East and Africa FY 2015 EBITDA (USD bn) Etisalat Group 14.1 Etisalat Group 7.2 STC 13.5 STC 5.0 MTN Group 10.2 MTN Group 4.2 Ooredoo 8.8 Ooredoo 3.5 Vodacom 5.4 Vodacom 1.9 Turk Telecom 5.1 Turk Telecom 1.8 Turk Cell 4.5 Maroc Tel 1.8 Mobily 3.8 Zain Group 1.6 Zain Group 3.8 Du 1.5 Maroc Tel 3.6 Turk Cell 1.4 Source: Bloomberg Data as at 5 May

8 3 Diversified Telecom Operator Maroc Telecom, Morocco Licence type % Ownership (1) 53% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Sotelma, Mali Licence type % Ownership (2) 51% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Etisalat Misr, Egypt Licence type Mobile & Internet % Ownership 66% Etisalat, Afghanistan Licence type Mobile % Ownership 100% PTCL, Pakistan Mauritel, Mauritania Licence type % Ownership (2) 41% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Licence type % Ownership 23% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Etisalat Lanka, Sri Lanka Licence type Mobile % Ownership 100% Atlantique Telecom, Moov West Africa Licence type Onatel, Burkina Faso Licence type Mobile % Ownership (2) 100% % Ownership (2) 51% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Maroc Telecom (4) Other Africa Middle East Asia Thuraya, UAE Licence type % Ownership 28% Network coverage Etisalat, UAE Licence type Satellite telecommunication 140 countries % Ownership 100% Mobile, Fixed & Internet Gabon Telecom, Gabon Licence type % Ownership (2) 51% Mobile, Fixed & Internet EMTS, Etisalat Nigeria Licence type Mobile % Ownership 40% Canar, Sudan Licence type Fixed % Ownership 92% Etihad Etisalat (Mobily), Saudi Arabia Licence type % Ownership 27% Mobile & Internet (1) The 53% stake in Maroc Telecom is held by Etisalat Investment North Africa LLC (EINA), an indirect subsidiary of Etisalat in which Etisalat holds effective ownership of 91.3% and Abu Dhabi Fund for Development holds the remaining 8.7%. (2) Maroc Telecom ownership. 8

9 4 Strong Financial Profile and Consistent Track Record of Shareholder Remuneration Operating Cash Flows (AED bn) Capex / Revenue (%) Net Debt/(Cash) Position (AED bn) Strong Cash Flow Generation, Consistent Reinvestment and Robust Balance Sheet % 20% 10% 13% Q'15 1Q'16 (1.29) Q'15 1Q' Q'15 1Q'16 (2.63) Dividend Payout Ratio (%) Dividend (AED bn) & DPS (AED Dividend Yield (%) Consistent History of Attractive Shareholder Returns 78.2% 64.3% 84.2% % 6.1% 5.1% Dividend (AED bn) DPS (1) 1. Annualized dividend yield stock price is based on actual payment date of 18 August 2015 and 26 April

10 5 Highest Rated Telco outside Asia with Strong Balance Sheet and Lowest Leverage Among Peers MEA Telco Ratings and Total Debt / EBITDA Etisalat s Credit Rating Ratings Etisalat, AAxxx AA-/Stable A+/Stable 12 A A - STC, A- Ooredoo, A- (1) Aa3/Stable 8 6 A A Batelco, BB MTN, BBB- Bharti, BBB- Net Debt (Net Cash) / EBITDA 0.07X 0.02X Q' x -2 yyy Debt/EBITDA -0.85X Source: Company filings, Bloomberg (1) On March 6, 2015 Moody s placed Etisalat Group under review 10

11 2. Financial Overview

12 Etisalat Group Financial Highlights 1Q 2016 Revenue Breakdown 1Q 2016 (AED m) EBITDA Breakdown 1Q 2016 (AED m) 24% 12.9 bn 9% 8% 2% 24% 6% 6% 3% 6.4 bn 57% 61% +1% -2% YoY Growth YoY Growth UAE +1% UAE -4% MT Group (LC +10%) +7% MT Group (LC +5) +2% Egypt (LC +16%) +9% Pakistan (LC -3%) -6% Egypt (LC +14) +8% Pakistan (LC +1%) -2% (1) Financial figures are restated to exclude the impact of discontinued operations Represents others 12

13 Etisalat Group Financial Highlights FY2015 Revenue Breakdown FY 2015 (AED m) EBITDA Breakdown FY 2015 (AED m) 24% 51.7 bn 9% 8% 3% 24% 6% 5% 4% 26.5 bn 56% 61% +7% +14% YoY Growth YoY Growth UAE +6% MT Group +52% Egypt (LC +2%) -6% Pakistan (LC -9%) -10% UAE +9% MT Group +42% Egypt (LC +2%) -4% Pakistan (LC +4%) +2% (1) Financial figures are restated to exclude the impact of discontinued operations Represents others 13

14 Group Revenue Revenue (AED m) and YoY growth (%) Sources of Revenue growth Q1 16 vs Q1 15 (AED m) 38,853 48,509 51,737 12, ,853 18% 26% 7% 30% 12,726 12,853 1% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 UAE 57% Geographical Split of Revenue (1Q 2016) Domestic vs. Int l Int'l 43% Revenue YoY growth % MT 57% International Egypt 21% Pakistan 19% Others 3% Q1'15 UAE MT Group Egypt Pakistan Others Q1'16 Key Highlights Revenue growth is attributed to UAE, MT Group and Egypt operations Positive revenue growth in the UAE impacted by lower handset sales Higher contribution from international consolidated operations Growth in MT Group driven by int l subsidiaries Revenue growth in Egypt despite currency devaluation Revenue growth in Pakistan continued negatively impacted by increased competition in international and mobile revenues 14

15 Group EBITDA EBITDA (AED m) & EBITDA Margin Sources of EBITDA growth 1Q 16 vs 1Q 15 (AED m) 18,901 23,212 26,526 6, , % 48% 51% 51% 50% 6,530 6,424 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 UAE 61% EBITDA Geographical Split of EBITDA (Q1 2016) Domestic vs. Int l Int'l 37% Others 2% MT 66% EBITDA Margin International Egypt 17% Pakistan 15% Others 2% Q1'15 UAE MT Group Egypt Pakistan Others Q1'16 Key Highlights EBITDA in the UAE negatively impacted by higher cost of sales and network costs. Higher contribution of EBITDA of consolidated international operations due to: Positive contribution from Maroc Telecom Group due to int l subsidiaries Positive contribution from Egypt due to higher revenue Pakistan contribution impacted by currency devaluation while grew in local currency 15

16 Group CAPEX CAPEX (AED m) & CAPEX/Revenue Ratio (%) Sources of Capex growth Q1 16 vs Q1 15 (AED m) 8,914 10, ,639 6,334 1, % 18% 20% 1,266 1, % 13% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 CAPEX CAPEX/Revenue Q1'15 UAE MT Group Egypt Pakistan Others Q1'16 Geographical Split of CAPEX (Q1 2016) Domestic vs. Int l International Key Highlights Lower capital spend in the UAE Others 3% Egypt 13% Increased Capital expenditure in international operations due to: UAE 26% Int'l 70% (2) MT 68% Pakistan 18% Higher capex spend in MT Group due to License acquisition in Ivory Coast and Togo Others 4% Others 1% Higher capex spending in Pakistan driven by investment in the mobile network 16

17 Group Balance Sheet, Cash Flows and Debt Profile Balance Sheet (AED m) Dec-15 Mar-16 Investment Grade Credit Ratings Cash & Cash Equivalent (1) 21,422 24,676 Total Assets 128, ,139 AA-/Stable Total Debt (1) 22,080 22,050 Net Cash / (Debt) (658) 2,626 Total Equity 59,375 57,573 A+/Stable Aa3/Stable (2) Net cash position (AED m) Mar 15 Mar 16 Operating 4,255 5,096 Investing (1,175) (1,737) Financing (25) (243) Net change in cash 3,054 3,116 Effect of FX rate changes Reclassified as held for sales (6) (69) Ending cash balance 22,148 24,676 Highlights Maintained healthy liquidity position Net Cash to EBITDA level Better operating cash flow due to better profitability and working capital management Maintained strong credit ratings with stable outlook from the three credit ratings agencies (1) Balances excludes discontinued operations (2) On March 8 th, 2016 Moody s placed Etisalat Group under review 17

18 Debt Profile: Diversified debt portfolio Borrowings (1) by Operation Q1 16 (AED m) Borrowings (1) by Currency 15,503 MAD 12% Euro 44% Others 16% 3,370 1,961 1,216 USD 28% Group MT Group Egypt Pakistan Debt (1) by Source Q1 16 (AED m) Repayment (1) Schedule 14,943 11,503 6,459 4,200 4, Bonds Bank Borrowings Vendor Financing Others 2, years > 5 years (1) Debt balance excludes borrowing from discontinued operations 18

19 Country by Country Financial Review 19

20 UAE: Moderate revenue growth with strong profitability UAE Market Facts Financial Performance 19M Total Subscribers 200% Mobile Penetration AED Million FY 15 YoY% 1Q 16 YoY% Revenue 28,774 +6% 7,290 +1% EBITDA 16,279 +9% 3,896-4% EBITDA % 57% +1pp 53% -3pp Profit 7,325 0% 1,885 +4% ~ 86% FTTH Coverage > +80% Smartphone Penetration ~ 90% LTE Coverage Capex 4, % % Key Highlights Revenue growth driven by strong performance of fixed and mobile broadband Margin weakening on higher interconnection and roaming costs, higher special project and G&A expenses Profit improvement due to lower royalty charges Capital spending focused on network modernisation and maintenance 20

21 Etisalat UAE financial Performance: Revenue (AED bn) / YoY Growth (%) EBITDA (AED bn) / EBITDA % % 9% 6% 11% 8%% % 57% 55% 57% 56% 53% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 Revenue YoY growth % FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 EBITDA EBITDA % Net Profit (AED bn) / Profit Margin (%) Free Cash Flow (1) (AED bn) % 27% 25% 25% 26% 48% 46% 39% 47% 48% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 Net Profit Margin % FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 FCF FCF% (1) Free Cash Flow represents EBITDA less Capex 21

22 UAE: Consistent high value subscriber growth Mobile Subs (m) & ARPU (1) (AED) Fixed Subs (m) & ARPL (2) (AED) Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Postpaid Prepaid Blended ARPU Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Fixed ARPL elife Subs Double & Triple-Play (m) Fixed Broadband (3) Subs (m) Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 E-Life (2P & 3P) ARPL Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Fixed BB ARPL (1) Mobile ARPU ( Average Revenue Per User ) calculated as total mobile voice, data and roaming revenues divided by the average mobile subscribers. (2) ARPL ( Average Revenue Per Line ) calculated as fixed line revenues divided by the average fixed subscribers. (3) Fixed broadband subscriber numbers calculated as total of residential DSL (Al-Shamil), corporate DSL (Business One) and E-Life subscribers. 22

23 UAE: Competitive dynamics Mobile Market Share (%) Fixed Market Share (%) 55.4% 44.6% 83.7% 16.3% Mobile Value Share (%) Fixed Value Share (%) 35.3% 81.7% 18.3% 64.7% Du Etisalat Based on Company s disclosures 23

24 Int l Operations Financial Highlights 1Q 2016 Revenue (AED m)/ebitda (AED m) / EBITDA Margin (%) Revenue & EBITDA (AED m) / EBITDA Margin (%) / YoY Growth % Maroc Telecom Group 1Q 2016 YoY Growth in AED Growth in MAD 44% 40% 43% Revenue 3,119 +7% +10% 57% EBITDA 1,571 +2% +5% 5,287 5,489 5,480 Etisalat Misr EBITDA Margin 50% 1Q pp YoY Growth in AED -3pp YoY growth in EGP 21% Revenue 1,165 +9% EBITDA % +16% +14% 2,319 2,207 2,364 Pakistan EBITDA Margin 35% 1Q pp YoY Growth in AED 0pp YoY growth in PKR 19% Revenue 1,028-6% -3% Q1'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 EBITDA 347-2% +1% Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin 34% +1pp +1pp (1) Financial figures are restated to exclude the impact of discontinued operations 24

25 Int l Operations Financial Highlights FY 2015 Revenue (AED m)/ebitda (AED m) / EBITDA Margin (%) Revenue & EBITDA (AED m) / EBITDA Margin (%) / YoY Growth % Maroc Telecom Group FY 2015 YoY Growth in AED Growth in MAD 31% 39% 43% Revenue 12, % +75% 55% EBITDA 6, % +61% 21,107 22,344 Etisalat Misr EBITDA Margin 51% FY pp YoY Growth in AED -4pp Growth in EGP 13,182 20% Revenue 4,544-6% EBITDA 1,692-4% +2% +2% 4,035 8,306 9,571 Pakistan 19% EBITDA Margin +37% FY pp YoY Growth in AED Revenue 4,236-10% +1pp Growth in PKR -9% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 1,292 +2% EBITDA Margin 30% +4pp +4% +4pp (1) Financial figures are restated to exclude the impact of discontinued operations 25

26 Maroc Telecom: Growth driven by int l operations Morocco, Benin, Burkina Faso, CAR, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Togo Subscribers (m) Revenue (AED m) / EBITDA Margin CAPEX (AED m) & CAPEX/Revenue Ratio (%) ,477 12,728 12,316 3, % 54% 51% 53% 50% 2,159 1,995 2,921 3,119 17% 16% 29% % % 14% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 Key Highlights Strong subscriber acquisition driven by Int l operations Revenue EBITDA % Macro and Market Snapshot (2015) (3)(4) Morocco Burkina Faso CAPEX CAPEX/Revenue Gabon Mali Mauritania Newly Acquired (2) Revenue growth impacted by currency depreciation Y/Y growth in local currency attributed to international operations and local domestic fixed segment Int l contribute 41% of Group revenues Maintained healthy EBITDA margin above 51% level Increase in capital spending due to license acquisitions license in Morocco, Niger and Mauritania, Ivory Coast and Togo. Population (m) GDP per Capita ($) (4) 3, , ,347 2,148 GDP Growth (%) Penetration Rate (%) M127/F ARPU ($) Number of Players Between 2 and 5 Country Position (1) Revenue figures in AED for FY 13 and FY 14 are not comparable to FY 15 due to differences in accounting policies (2) Newly Acquired Operations are in Benin, CAR, CDI, Gabon, Niger and Togo (3) Source: World Bank and GSMA Intelligence (4) Based on latest available statistics 26

27 Egypt: Strong revenue growth and improved operating profit in local currency Total Subscribers (1) (m) Revenue (AED m) / EBITDA Margin CAPEX (AED m) & CAPEX/Revenue Ratio (%) ,742 4,844 4,544 1,229 1,229 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% % 36% 37% 36% 35% 1,070 1,165 26% 26% 19% % % FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 Market Subs Market Share Revenue EBITDA % CAPEX CAPEX/Revenue Key Highlights Revenue growth Y/Y impacted by currency depreciation Maintained growth in local currency mostly due to data segment Improvement in EBITDA in local currency despite higher network and billing costs, interconnections and termination costs. Sustained EBITDA margin at 36% level Capex spending focused on network expansion Macro and Market Snapshot (2015) (1) (3) Population (m) 86.7 GDP per Capita($) 3,304 GDP Growth (%) 2.2 Penetration Rate (%) 113 ARPU ($) 3.3 Number of Players (Mobile) Country Position 3 3 (1) Subscribers and market share data as per statistic published by the Ministry of Information and Technology (2) Source: IMF, Business Monitor International (3) Based on latest available statistics 27

28 Pakistan: Subscriber growth amidst intense competition Subscribers (m) Revenue (AED m) / EBITDA Margin CAPEX (AED m) & CAPEX/Revenue Ratio (%) 4,761 4,719 2, , % 27% 30% 32% 34% 1,094 1,028 1,392 29% 63% 1,028 24% 21% 12% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 Subscriber growth impacted by regulatory mandated biometric verification measures Turnaround in net mobile subscriber growth in the last two quarters Key Highlights Macro and Market Snapshot (2015) (1) (2) Maintained growth in data revenue driven by growth in DSL EVO Revenue growth impacted by subscriber loss and adverse competitive environment in the mobile segment and lower int l incoming traffic EBITDA margin improved due to costs optimisation measures Capital spending focused on mobile network enhancement Revenue EBITDA % CAPEX CAPEX/Revenue Population (m) GDP per Capita ($) 1,243 GDP Growth (%) 4.1 Penetration Rate (%) Mobile 64 / Fixed 3 ARPU ($) 1.9 Number of Players (Mobile/ Fixed) 5 Country Position Fixed 1 / Mobile 4 (1) Source: IMF, Business Monitor International (2) Based on latest available statistics 28

29 Nigeria: Growth impacted by challenging regulatory and macro economic environments Subscribers (m) Revenue (AED m) / EBITDA Margin CAPEX (AED m) & CAPEX/Revenue Ratio (%) ,343 4,230 1,487 1, ,341 1,114 15% 18% 16% 14% 1% 1,040 1,083 45% 34% 26% % 4% FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 Revenue EBITDA % FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 1Q'15 1Q'16 CAPEX CAPEX/Revenue Key Highlights Macro and Market Snapshot (2015) (1) (2) Maintained Y/Y subscriber growth Slow down is attributed to to regulatory mandated registration process Revenue growth Y/Y impacted by currency devaluation Strong revenue growth in local currency driven by higher subscriber base new products and services Higher EBITDA due to higher revenue trend, resulting in better margin Lower capex spend due to the tower sales and leaseback transaction Population (m) GDP per Capita ($) 1,343 GDP Growth (%) 6.31 Penetration Rate (%) 81% ARPU ($) 8.4 Number of Players 4 Country Position 3 (1) Source: IMF, Business Monitor International (2) Based on latest available statistics 29

30 2016 Actual Against Guidance: Confident in delivering the full year management guidance Financial KPI Guidance 2016 In AED Guidance 2016 Constant Currencies (1) Actual Q In AED Actual Q Constant Currencies Revenue Growth % Stable Low single digits +1% +3% EBITDA Margin% ~ 48% - 50% 50% CAPEX / Revenue % ~ 18% 13% (1) Constant currency: Financial results assuming constant foreign currency exchange rates used for translation based on the rates in effect for the comparable prioryear period. In order to compute our constant currency results, we multiple or divide, as appropriate, our current AED results by the current year monthly average foreign exchange rates and then multiply or divide, as appropriate, those amounts by the prior year monthly average foreign exchange rates. 30

31 3. Appendix

32 Etisalat Group Etisalat Group Consolidated FY 14 FY 15 FY Growth 1Q 15 1Q 16 1Q Growth Subs (m) (1) % % Revenue (AED m) 48,508 51,737 +7% 12,726 12,853 +1% EBITDA (AED m) 23,212 26, % 6,530 6,424-2% EBITDA Margin 48% 51% +3pp 51% 50% -1pp Net Profit 8,601 8,263-4% 2,177 2,001-8% Net Profit Margin 18% 16% -2pp 17% 16% -2pp EPS (AED) % % Etisalat UAE FY 14 FY 15 FY Growth 1Q 15 1Q 16 1Q Growth Subs (1) (m) % % Revenue (AED m) 27,095 28,774 +6% 7,221 7,290 +1% EBITDA (AED m) 14,957 16,279 +9% 4,060 3,896-4% EBITDA Margin 55% 57% +1pp 56% 53% -3pp Net Profit 7,309 7,325 0% 1,807 1,885 +4% Net Profit Margin 27% 25% -2pp 25% 26% +1pp CAPEX 2,524 4, % % CAPEX/Revenue 9% 17% +8pp 9% 6% -3pp (1) Subscriber numbers calculated as aggregate number of GSM, CDMA, fixed, fixed broadband and WLL lines generating revenue during the last 90 days. 32

33 Currency Trend: USD / MAD USD / EGP FY'12 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 FY'12 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 Average EoP Average EoP USD / PKR USD / NGN FY'12 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 Average EoP FY'12 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 Q1'15 Q1'16 Average EoP 33

34 Etisalat Investor Relations Website: 34