Comparison of Services Trade Development among Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore

Transcription

1 Comparson of Servces Trade Development among Shangha, Hong Kong and Sngapore Zha Gu Yong Abstract In Sep 9, Internatonal Trade Center (ITC) has become another mportant development strategy of Shangha after Internatonal Fnance and Shppng Center. As the necessary component of ITC, Servces Trade n Shangha s lagged. Shangha should mprove Servces Trade by drawng on the experence of ITCs n Hong Kong, Sngapore and etc. So t s necessary to analyze the effectve factors and put forward correspondng references of the development of Servces Trade by comparng the development of Servce Trade among Shangha, H.K. and Sngapore. Index Terms Comparatve analyss, effectve factors, nternatonal compettveness, servces trade. I. INTRODUCTION In Sep 9, Shangha (SH) set a goal to buld Internatonal Trade Centre (ITC) and determned the sx specfc measures, ncludng developng Servces Trade. By Comparng wth Hong Kong (H.K.) and Sngapore (SGP), Shangha has great development n Internatonal Goods Trade, but Internatonal Servces Trade has great gap wth H.K. and Sngapore. Wth the ncreasng dependence of economy and socety on servces, the poor Servces Industry and Servces Trade wll be a lmtaton for Shangha to buld ITC. So, on the bass of comparng the comparson of the development of Servce Trade among Shangha, H.K. and SGP, ths paper analyzes the effectve factors on the development of Servce Trade and puts forward correspondng suggestons for Shangha to develop Servce Trade and mprove buldng of ITC. II. COMPARING THE SCALE OF SERVICE TRADE AMONG SH, HKG AND SGP From the 2st Century, Servces Trade of Shangha has developed dramatcally (Table Ⅰ). From to, the Servces Export ncreased by tmes whle the Servces Import ncreased more than 9 tmes. But ts overall scale was stll less than those of H.K and SGP. Manuscrpt receved November 6, 2; revsed February,. Ths work was supported by Shangha Muncpal Educaton Commsson Scentfc Research and Innovaton Proect No.2YS9 and Mnstry of Educaton of the People s Republc of Chna Research Proect No. YJC79. Guyong Zha s wth Shangha Customs College, Shangha, Chna (e-mal: zhaguyong@6.com). III. ANALYZING THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF SERVICE TRADE A. Constructon of Internatonal Compettveness Indexes There are some man ndexes to count and compare nternatonal compettveness n the regardng studes []. TABLE I: THE SCALES OF SERVICE TRADE OF SH, HKG AND SGP HK EX HK IM SG EX SG IM SH EX SH IM Resources: WTO, Internatonal Trade Statstcs 2, ; Shangha Muncpal Commsson of Commerce,Shangha Servce Trade Development Report, Shangha Jont Publshng Press,. Internatonal Market Share (IMS) refers to the rato of the export of product of country n the total export of product of the world. The IMS s more hgh, the compettveness of product of country s more strong. Export Contrbuton Rate (ECR) refers to the rato of the export of product n the total export of country. The ECR s more hgh, the compettveness of product of country s more strong. Compettve Advantage Index (CAI), also called Trade Specal Index (TSI), Net-export Rato Index (NRI) and Trade Compettveness Index (TCI), refers to the rato of the trade balance n the total trade of product of country. The formula s as follows: TCI ( X M ) / ( X M ) (),,,,. Theren, X s the export of product of country,, M s, the mport of product of country. DOI:.776/JOEBM..V

2 CAI s from - to ; CAI s equal to, the compettveness s average;cai s above, the compettveness s strong, and CAI s more near, the compettveness s stronger; CAI s under, the compettveness s weak, and CAI s more near -, the compettveness s weaker. As relatve data, CAI can remove the effects of macroeconomcs such as currency or economy nflaton, economy scale and etc. Revealed Comparatve Advantage (RCA) refer to the rato between the proporton of the export of product of country n the total export of product of world and the proporton of the total export of country n the total export of world. The formula s as follows: X X X X RCA,. (2), w w Theren, X s the export of product of country,, X s the total export of country; X s the export of product of the world, X s the total export of the world. w If RCA s above 2.5,the compettveness of the Servce Trade of country s very strong; If RCA s from.25 to 2.5, the compettveness s much strong; If RCA s from.8 to.25, the compettveness s average; If RCA s under.8, the compettveness s weak. w, TABLE II: INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEXES OF SERVICE TRADE IN SH, H.K. AND SGP IMS(%) ECR(%) CAI HK SGP SH HK SGP SH HK SGP SH RCA RTCA NRCA HK SGP SH HK SGP SH HK SGP SH Note: The goods trade of Shangha s on the bass of the customs area n order to be n lne wth Hong Kong and Sngapore, and the same below. Resources: UNCTAD, Handbook of Statstcs 2, Shangha Muncpal Commsson of Commerce, Shangha Servce Trade Development Report, Shangha Jont Publshng Press, ; Shangha Statstcs Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook, 2. RCA can obectvely reflect the relatve advantage by elmnate the mpact of the gross volume fluctuate of the country and the world. Revealed Trade Compettve Advantage (RTCA) refers to the gap between the relatve export proporton and the relatve mport proporton of product of country n the world. The formula s as follows: RTCA RCA M M / M M (),,, w, w Theren, M, s the mport of product of country, M s the total mport of country; the world, M w, M s the total mport of the world. w s the mport of product of 268

3 RTCA s above, the compettveness of product of country s strong, and s weak f RTCA s under ; RTCA s more bg, the compettveness s more strong, and vce versa. Net-export Revealed Comparatve Advantage (NRCA) refers to the gap between the rato of the export of product n the total export of country and the rato of the mport of product n the total mport of country. The formula s as follows: NRCA M (), X, X M, RTCA s above, the compettveness of product of country s strong and s weak f RTCA s under ; RTCA s more bg, the compettveness s more strong, and vce versa. Because NRCA ndcates the both mpacts of the export and mport by elmnatng the affect of ntra-ndustry specalzaton and trade, so t the best ndex to apprase the nternatonal compettveness of ndustry. B. Comparson of the Internatonal Compettveness of Servces Trade References The above ndexes of Servces Trade among SH, HK and SGP are showed n Table II. Accordng to Table Ⅱ, all of these sx ndexes ndcate the compettveness of Shangha Servces Trade s much lower than that of H.K. and SGP. Especally, CAI, RTCA and NRCA n vew of the mport ndcate the compettveness of Shangha Servces Trade s worsenng, whle those of Hong Kong and Sngapore are enhancng or mprovng. In a word, Shangha has only start to buld ITC and must make great endeavor to settle a lot of dffcultes. Then, accordng to the classfcaton of WTO, ths paper counts the CAI, RCA and NRCA of ten knds of sub-ndustres servce trade of SH, HKG and SGP n order to analyze deeply ther nternatonal compettveness of servce trade. Accordng to CAI, Shangha has compettveness only n Computer & Informaton, Other Busness Servce, personal and cultural and recreatonal servces. When comparng wth H.K. and SGP, Shangha s n the lead n communcatons, Computer and Informaton Servce, and s mddle n contracton, other busness servce, personal and cultural and recreatonal servces, and s lag n other sub-ndustres of servce. Especally the nsurance and fnancal servce has a great lag and does not comply wth the buldng of ITC and Internatonal Fnance Center. Accordng to RCA, Shangha has compettveness only on personal and cultural and recreatonal servces because the RCA s above.25 from 5, all other sub-ndustres of servce has no compettveness because all the RCAs has been kept under.8. Comparng wth H.K. and SGP, Shangha s lead n computer and nformaton, and s mddle n constructon and nsurance servce, and s laggard n other sub-ndustres of servce. Accordng to NRCA, Shangha has compettveness only on constructon, computer and other busness servce. The ten knds of sub-ndustres servce trade refer to transport, travel, communcatons, contracton, nsurance, fnancal servce, computer and nformaton, royaltes and lcense fees, other busness servce, personal and cultural and recreatonal servces. The data of ndexes are not lsted, please contact the author drectly f need. Comparng wth H.K. and SGP, Shangha s lead n communcaton, computer and nformaton, and s mddle n constructon, royaltes and lcense fees. By comparng comprehensvely, Shangha has a strong compettveness n computer and nformaton, whch maybe due to the development of Informaton Technology Outsourcng (ITO). But foregn nvestments take over leadng role n ITO, so we must revew the compettve advantage of computer and nformaton [2]; Shangha has a mddle compettveness n other busness servce, personal and cultural and recreatonal servces. IV. EFFECTIVE FACTORS OF COMPETITIVENESS OF SERVICE TRADE OF SH, HKG AND SGP The nternatonal compettveness of Servces Trade n Shangha s far lower than those of H.K. and SGP, and can not adapt to the buldng of ITC at a certan extent. So, t s mportant and necessary to analyze the cause of the gap between Shangha, H.K. and SGP, n order to provde references for Shangha to mprove the compettveness of servce trade. A. The Gap of Labor Productvty of Servce Industry Labor productvty s a determnng factor of the economc growth potental and nternatonal compettveness. Generally, more hgh labor productvty means more low socally necessary labor tme, producng cost and prce, and more strong nternatonal compettveness []. Table III shows the rank of labor productvty of servces ndustry s consstent to the rank of nternatonal compettveness of SH, H.K. and SGP. Shangha must mprove labor productvty of servce ndustry. TABLE III: LABOR PRODUCTIVITY OF SERVICE INDUSTRY IN SH, HKG AND SGP (USD/L) HK SG SH Resources: Hong Kong Stats Offce, Hong Kong Statstcs Yearbook 2, Sngapore Stats Offce, Sngapore Statstcs Yearbook 2, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook, 2. B. The Development Level of Servce Industry Accordng to the Natonal Damond Theory, a country must buld ts own compettve ndustres n order to gan nternatonal compettveness, because the development level of ndustres s a materal foundaton and a key factor of the compettveness of the ndustry. Table IV shows that the rank of development level of servce ndustry ndcated by the ratos of add value and employment of servce ndustry s totally consstent wth the rank of the nternatonal compettveness of servce trade n SH, H.K. and SGP, and ndcates that the development of servce ndustry n SH has lagged behnd relatvely and can not provde a sold foundaton to the servce trade n Shangha, and Shangha s servce trade has no compettveness. Shangha must fleetly develop the servce 269

4 ndustry. TABLE IV: DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF SERVICE INDUSTRY IN SH, H.K. AND SGP (%) 5 Rato of Servce HK Industry SG GDP In Total SH GDP Rato of Servce HK Industry SG Employment n Total Employment SH Resources: Chnese Stats Offce, Internatonal Statstcs Yearbook,, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook, 2, C. The Scale of Goods Trade The operaton of goods trade needs the nput of servces, so the rapd expanson of goods trade s the crucal prerequste of the emergence and development of the servce trade. Especally n modern socety, servce ndustry becomes an nalenable part of the manufacture and marketng of lots of fnshed products because that servces ndustry can provde varous necessary nputs such as engneerng desgn and data processng etc., and promote the sales of products by provdng after-sale servces. Table V shows that the rank of the scale of goods trade s totally consstent wth the rank of nternatonal compettveness of servce trade n SH, H.K. and SGP, namely Shangha must strve to develop goods trade n order to strengthen the foundaton of servce trade. TABLE V: TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOODS TRADE IN SH, HK AND SGP (BILLION USD) HK SG SH Resources: WTO, Internatonal Trade Statstcs 2, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook, 2, D. FDI Inflow of Servce Industry The nternatonal captal flow can optmze the captal allocatons all over the world, and has a deep mpact on the ndustry development and nternatonal compettveness upgrade of the host country by spllover effect []. Table VI shows that the rank of FDI nflow s totally n lne wth the rank of nternatonal compettveness of Servce Trade n SH, H.K. and SGP. Shangha must accelerate the openng of servce ndustry and enlarge the FDI nflow to Servce Industry. E. Comparson of Human Captal Wth the development of scence and progress of socety, servce ndustry has a change n ts nteror constructon the human captal ntensve emergng servce ndustry and specal servce ndustres appear n abundance and become 7 9 domnant, then the make servce ndustry be human captal ntensve [5], and the nternatonal compettveness of servce ndustry s up to the human captal at a large degree. The human captal s measured by the rato of publc expense n GDP and the rato of the enrolment students n hgh educaton nsttutons n total populaton. Table VII shows that the ranks of these two ratos are totally accordant to the rank of the nternatonal compettveness n Servce Trade of SH, H.K. and SGP. So, Shangha must ncrease the nvestment n educaton, especally n hgh educaton. TABLE VI: RATIO OF FDI INFLOWS TO SERVICE INDUSTRY IN THE TOTAL FDI INFLOWS IN SH, H.K. AND SGP (%) HK SG SH Resources: UNCTAD, Foregn Drect Investment database 2, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook 2, TABLE VII: HUMAN CAPITAL OF SH, H.K. AND SGP (%) 5 9 Rato of Publc HK Educaton SG Expense n GDP SH Rato of Enrollment In Hgh Educaton Inst. In Total Populaton HK SG SH Resources: Hong Kong Stats Offce, Hong Kong Statstcs Yearbook, Sngapore Stats Offce, Sngapore Statstcs Yearbook, 2, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook 2. F. Development of Informaton Technology Wth the development of scence and technology, especally the IT revoluton n 96s, there are great changes n the tems and knds of the servces whch can be utlzed trans-natonally, and the development of servce ndustry and servce trade depend on the advanced IT and Communcatons technology at a very large extent. That s to say, the nternatonal compettveness of servce trade s up to the nformatzaton level of a country [6]. Table VIII shows that the rank of the development level of IT measured by the popularzng rate of broadband and person computers s accordant to the nternatonal compettveness of Servce Trade n SH, HKG and SGP. Hence, Shangha must stll mprove the applcaton and popularzaton of IT. TABLE VIII: DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF IT IN SH, HKG AND SGP Broadband Number per Persons Internatonal Internet Users Per Persons HK SG SH HK SG SH Resources: World Bank, World Development ndex 2, Shangha Stats Offce, Shangha Statstcs Yearbook, 2, 27

5 G. Free Trade Area (FTA) n Servce Trade Wth the development of servce trade whch becomes the new growth pont of natonal trade and economy, more and more FTAs break through the goods trade and brng the servce trade nto ther categores n order to mprove the lberalzaton and compettveness of servce trade. For a long tme, Hong Kong has been carryng out free trade and compettve polces, and has bult an open and transparent envronment for trade and nvestment, and keep to be one of the most open economcs allover the world. So, Hong Kong has been buldng good envronments for the development of Servce Industry and Trade, and has provded a stronger nternatonal compettve system. As one member of ASEAN, Sngapore has benefted lots from the lberalzaton of servce trade of ASEAN, because the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Servces and the four followng Package Agreements have sgnfcant nfluences on the nternatonal compettveness of Sngapore Servce Trade. Except for Asa-Pacfc trade agreement (Bangkok Agreement), Sngapore has sgned peces of blateral FTAs wth New Zealand, Japan, EU, Australan and etc, and has reached consensuses n sgnng blateral FTAs wth Egypt, Bahran, Kuwat and Unted Arab Emrates, and s negotatng blateral FTAs wth Canada, Mexco and Pakstan. Especally, Sngapore sgned the frst FTA crossng three contnents wth New Zealand, Chle and Brune. Except for CEPA and Bangkok Agreement, Chna has ssued 9 peces of blateral FTAs wth Chle, Pakstan, New Zealand, Sngapore, Peru, Costa Rca and ASEAN and s negotatng to sgn FTAs wth GCC, Australa, Ice Land, Norway and SACU. Comparatvely speakng, Shangha falls behnd Sngapore n quantty and qualty (the economy development level of contractng partes) of FTAs, and lead to a relatvely laggard Servce Industry and weak nternatonal compettveness. Hence, Shangha must fnd out a new route for the lberaton of Servce Trade and mprove the progress of lberaton. V. CONCLUSION The lower nternatonal compettveness and laggard development of Servce Trade wll be the prncpal bottlenecks for Shangha to buld ITC. Hence, Shangha should learn the experences and lessons from Hong Kong and Sngapore to accelerate the development and mprove the nternatonal compettveness of ts servce trade, and tamp a relable and sold foundaton for the buldng of ITC. REFERENCES [] Y. Feng. Measure and Stablty Analyss of Comparatve Advantage of Chnese Servce Trade, Fnance & Trade Economcs, pp. 8-88, Jun. [2] J. Wang. (Mar 9). The Introducton of the development of Servce Outsourcng n Shangha. [Onlne]. Avalable: [] H. Rcardo, J. Hwang, and D. Rodrk. What You Export Matters, NBER, Workng Paper, no. 95, 6. [] G. Y. Zha, Analyss of the Overspll Effect of FDI Attracted by the Chnese Servce Industry, Internatonal Economcs and Trade Research, pp. 6-66, May 7. [5] J. C. Zheng and Q. Xa, Effectve Factors of Internatonal Compettveness of Servce Trade, Journal of Internatonal Trade, pp. 2, December. [6] L. Chen, A Study on the Influencng Factors of Chnese Servce Trade Structure, Chna Busness & Trade, pp. 99-, October. Zha Gu Yong was born n Jngxan County Anhu Provnce Chna n Nov 978. Zha has got the bachelor n hstory (Modern and Contemporary Chnese Hstory) n Lanzhou Unversty n Gansu Provnce n, and the master n economcs (Internatonal Trade) n Shangha Insttuton of Foregn Trade n, and the doctor n economcs (World Economy) n East-Chna Normal Unversty n Shangha n 7, and had a Academc Vst to Unversty of Calforna-San Bernardno n U.S. for three months. Now Dr Zha s an assocate professor n Shangha Customs College and has been engaged n the teachng and study of Internatonal Trade, Internatonal Investment and Management of Internatonal Corporatons. 27