CMP: INR587 TP: INR705 (+21%) Upgrade to Buy

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1 BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 34,346 10,554 Stock Info Bloomberg AUBANK IN Equity Shares (m) Week Range (INR) 739/358 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -9/-1/- M.Cap. (INR b) M.Cap. (USD b) 3.1 Avg Val, INRm 1285 Free float (%) 67.1 Financials Snapshot (INR b) Y/E MAR FY18E FY19E FY20E NII PPP PAT EPS BV/Share P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoA (x) ROE(X) Shareholding pattern (%) As On Dec-17 Sep-17 Promoter DII FII Others FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (since listing) AU Small Finance Sensex - Rebased Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 CMP: INR587 TP: INR705 (+21%) Upgrade to Buy Perfect start to a promising journey; Upgrading to Buy 28 February2018 Update Sector: Financials AU Small Finance Bank AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) has reported strong progress as it undertakes transitioning from a leading retail-focused NBFC (AU Finance) to a small finance bank (SFB). While migration to an SFB is expected to weigh on the return ratios over the near term, we believe operating costs should peak out in FY18E and will begin to gradually improve thereafter. The bank continues to record robust balance sheet growth and has also surprised positively in terms of liability franchise development (2.7x CD ratio, 37% CASA ratio within three quarters of banking operations), which should provide cushion against a decline in yields. We expect 42% earnings CAGR over FY18-20E, driving RoA/RoE to 1.98%/20.1% in FY20E. Post the recent correction, the stock trades at 4.9x FY20E BV and 27x FY20E EPS. In view of its long-term sustainable business and earnings growth potential, we believe that AUBANK should continue trading at a premium. We thus upgrade the stock to Buy with a target price of INR705 (unchanged), based on 5.9x FY20E BV/32.7x FY20E EPS. Business growth remains robust; diversification set to improve further Post transition to an SFB, AUBANK has launched several new deposit/lending products and also expanded its presence in chosen geographies. Business growth, too, continues to be strong (67% YoY loan growth; 38% YoY AUM growth). Aided by its strong distribution network and launch of new products (including housing finance), AUBANK should deliver 42% loan book CAGR over FY18-20E in our view. We believe loan mix and geographical diversification will add stability to the franchise and help maintain steady growth. Deposit accretion surprises positively; will help cushion against drop in yields arising from banking transition AUBANK has surprised positively in terms of liability franchise development (88% YoY deposits growth in 3Q) and demonstrated robust CASA growth (CASA ratio at 37%, +400bp QoQ). Deposits now form ~37% of total credit v/s 23% in 2QFY18 this should provide protection against a decline in yields, containing contraction in the NIM (~80bp moderation over FY17-20E). Earnings growth to accelerate from FY19E; cost ratios have likely peaked We expect the return ratios to bounce back to healthy levels over FY19-20E as opex ratios have likely peaked out in FY18E while strong build-up of liability franchise will cushion NIM contraction. We believe a diversified loan book, wide geographical presence and strong underwriting skills across different lending segments will enable AUBANK to complete its SFB transition expeditiously. We expect RoA/RoE to bottom out at 1.82%/14.1% in FY18 and recover to 1.98%/20.1% by FY20E. Valuation and view We expect a CAGR of 43% in loan book and 42% in PAT over FY18-20, with RoA/RoE of 1.98%/20.1% in FY20. Post the recent correction, the stock trades at 4.9x FY20E BV, and we believe AUBANK should continue trading at a premium, given its superior performance and accelerated SFB transition. We upgrade to Buy with a TP of INR705 (unchanged), based on two-stage GGM, corresponding to 5.9x FY20E BV. Our PT corresponds to 32.7x FY20E EPS even as we expect the bank to deliver 40%+ earnings CAGR over the medium term. Research Analyst: Nitin Aggarwal (Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com); Anirvan Sarkar (Anirvan.Sarkar@MotilalOswal.com); Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); Piran Engineer (Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

2 Business growth remain robust; off-balance sheet mix to decline further New products to scale up gradually and provide diversification: As an assetfinancing NBFC, AUBANK had built a strong franchise across three secured lending segments: Vehicle loans, MSME loans and SME loans. Post transition to an SFB, it has launched several new deposit/lending products and has also expanded into newer geographies. The bank has also launched the housing finance business where in it has successful prior experience. Given its prior experience in housing finance and rapidly expanding presence in tier-ii/iii centers, AUBANK is well placed to rapidly scale up this business post launch, in our view. Even though the bank s business mix is largely in favor of vehicle and SME loans (82% of AUM), newer products will help it build scale and diversify risks. We expect AUBANK to deliver ~42% loan book CAGR over FY18-20E. Exhibit 1: We expect the bank to register 37% AUM CAGR over FY18-20E AUM (INRb) Loan book (INRb) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 2: AUBANK has recorded strong AUM growth across verticals YoY growth in 3QFY Exhibit 3: with increasingly diversified AUM mix Wheels Secured MSME Secured SME Gold loans Agri loans NBFC RE Group Business Banking Vehicle finance Secured MSME Secured SME NBFC QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 Decreasing off-bs should improve NIM (including off-bs): As a bank, AUBANK has access to deposits we note that it has progressed well on deposits accretion, bringing down incremental cost of funds. This will enable AUBANK to engage in more direct lending rather than securitization / direct assignment of loans which it had resorted to in a higher cost of funds scenario as an NBFC. We expect off-bs loan contribution to decline to 15% of total AUM by FY20E from ~25% now. 28 February

3 Exhibit 4: Off-BS loans as % of total AUM should decline to 15% by FY20E Off BS % Exhibit 5: NIM (including off BS) to remain stable over FY18-20E NIM (including off BS) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Fee income growth to be supported by distribution fees Third-party distribution fee growth should offset likely moderation in PSLC fees: As an SFB, AUBANK is required to maintain 75% of PSL-compliant loans on its books. As the bank diversifies its product mix in favor of non-psl compliant loans, it will decrease the quantum of PSL certificates the bank can sell, leading to some moderation in PSLC fees. However, this will likely get compensated by healthy growth in third-party distribution fees, as the bank has tied up with 11 mutual funds, one health insurance and one non-life insurance company to distribute their products. Deposit build-up beats expectations; to form 68% of total funds by FY20E Fast-paced deposit accretion to cushion against drop in yields: AUBANK has surprised positively with fast-paced build-up of its liability franchise (88% YoY deposits growth in 3Q) while also demonstrating robust CASA growth (CASA ratio at 37%, +400bp QoQ). The CD ratio has improved to 270% in 3QFY18 within just nine months of the launch of its banking operations. Accelerated deposits build-up has favored cost of funds, as incremental cost of funds for 9MFY18 stands at 7.2%, with cost of deposits at 6.55%. Granularity of deposits is at a healthy level, with an average SA ticket size of INR40,000. We note that 89% of AUBANK s deposits come from new to bank customers. We believe that robust growth in deposits will protect against a decline in yields, containing NIM contraction (9.3% in FY20 v/s 10.1% in FY17, excluding off-bs). 28 February

4 Exhibit 6: Funding mix incrementally diversified with growing mix of deposits (34% in 3QFY18) NCDs Refinance CPs Loans-Banks and NBFC Deposits Others Exhibit 7: We expect deposits to form 68% of total funds by FY20E Deposits Borrowings QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY FY18E FY19E FY20E Exhibit 8: CASA ratio is best-in-class among listed SFBs, even though AUBANK started operations after Equitas and Ujjivan Exhibit 9: Cost of funds to decline steadily aided by healthy deposit accretion CASA ratio Cost of funds AU Bank Equitas Ujjivan Source: Company, MOSL FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Source: Company, MOSL Asset quality improving post a minor bump-up from GST/90dpd migration Asset quality to improve with stabilization in vehicle portfolio: A large proportion of secured advances, strong underwriting and effective credit monitoring has enabled AUBANK to maintain NPL ratios at controlled levels. However, post the launch of its SFB operations, migration to the 90dpd recognition basis in 1QFY18, combined with inability to recognize repossessed vehicles as a bank (NBFCs are allowed) had resulted in an increase in the GNPL ratio to ~3%. Vehicle finance portfolio NPAs are partly also due to GST implementation which had impacted AUBANK s customer segment. However, as the implementation issues iron out, asset quality in this segment should improve further. In 3QFY18, asset quality improved slightly with ~19% QoQ decline in fresh slippages to INR680m, leading to a 25/22bp QoQ improvement in the GNPA/NNPA ratios to 2.83%/1.87% (2.12%/1.40% including off-balance sheet). Vehicle finance GNPAs declined to 3.2% in 3QFY18 from 3.7% in 2QFY18. PCR for the bank had declined post 4QFY17 due to aggressive write-offs (the bank provides 100% for loans that are delinquent for > 730 days), but improved to 34.4% in 3QFY18 from 28.6% in 1QFY18. Management has guided for a further improvement in PCR to 38-40% by end-fy February

5 Exhibit 10: Asset quality expected to improve steadily GNPA NNPA PCR FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Earnings growth to accelerate from FY19E; cost-ratios have likely peaked Transitioning into an SFB will impact the return ratios on (i) negative carry due to CRR/SLR, resulting in margin compression and (ii) higher operating expenses due to investments in technology, branches, operating centers, employees, etc. However, we believe that operating expenses will peak out in FY18E and operating leverage should improve gradually FY19E onward. We also believe that fast-paced deposit accretion will help reduce incremental cost of funds, helping cushion against NIM contraction. We expect the return ratios to bounce back to healthy levels over FY19-20E. Exhibit 11: Operating leverage is expected to improve FY19 onward Cost to income Cost to average assets FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E We believe a diverse loan book, wide geographical presence and strong underwriting skills across different lending segments will enable AUBANK to complete its SFB transition expeditiously. We expect RoA/RoE to bottom out at 1.82%/14.1% in FY18 and recover to 1.98%/20.1% by FY20E. 28 February

6 Exhibit 12:...leading to an improvement in RoA/RoE over FY19/20E RoA RoE FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Valuation view We expect a CAGR of 43% in loan book and 42% in PAT over FY18-20, with RoA/RoE of 1.98%/20.1% in FY20. Considering the likelihood of business and earnings growth sustainability with strong management at the helm, we believe the stock should continue trading at a premium. Post the recent correction, the stock trades at 4.9x FY20E BV. We thus upgrade AUBANK to Buy, with a target price of INR705 (unchanged), based on two-stage GGM, corresponding to 5.9x FY20E BV. 28 February

7 Financials and Valuations INCOME STATEMENT (INR Million) Y/E MARCH E 2019E 2020E Interest Income 3,370 4,984 6,429 9,351 12,298 18,761 27,995 38,873 Interest Expense 1,972 2,876 2,820 3,953 5,003 7,402 10,964 15,487 Net Financing income 1,398 2,108 3,609 5,399 7,294 11,359 17,031 23,386 Change (%) Income from Sec ,441 1,521 1,273 1,284 Net Income (Incl Secur) 2,109 2,764 4,219 6,152 8,736 12,880 18,305 24,669 Change (%) Other Income ,326 Net Income 2,133 2,822 4,243 6,202 8,871 13,353 19,133 25,995 Change (%) Operating Expenses 965 1,134 1,554 2,538 3,489 7,270 10,387 13,818 Change (%) Operating Profits 1,168 1,688 2,690 3,665 5,382 6,084 8,746 12,177 Change (%) Total Provisions ,508 2,162 2,886 % to operating income PBT 1,001 1,081 2,084 3,226 4,730 4,576 6,584 9,291 Exceptional items , PBT including exceptional 1,001 1,081 2,084 3,226 11,433 4,576 6,584 9,291 Tax ,110 3,214 1,556 2,239 3,159 Tax Rate (%) PAT ,402 2,116 8,220 3,020 4,345 6,132 Adjusted PAT ,402 2,116 3,400 3,020 4,345 6,132 Change (%) Change (on adjusted basis) (%) BALANCE SHEET Y/E MARCH E 2019E 2020E Equity Share Capital ,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 Reserves & Surplus 4,014 5,548 7,667 9,654 17,033 20,130 24,572 30,824 Equity Networth 4,419 5,978 8,108 10,094 19,876 22,973 27,414 33,666 Interest bearing liabilities 24,821 21,300 28,783 47,826 70,710 1,26,745 1,81,947 2,68,433 Change (%) Other liabilities 1,889 2,308 3,462 5,022 7,531 8,661 12,991 17,538 Change (%) Total Liabilities 31,128 29,586 40,353 62,942 98,117 1,58,440 2,22,414 3,19,699 Loans 18,432 24,560 34,040 56,208 63,900 1,15,587 1,65,051 2,35,594 Change (%) Investments 7,387 1,136 1,398 2,316 21,503 30,104 41,544 60,239 Net Fixed Assets ,758 6,896 13,103 22,930 Other assets 5,142 3,721 4,721 4,172 9,956 4, ,500 Total Assets 31,128 29,586 40,353 62,942 98,117 1,58,440 2,22,414 3,19,699 Total Assets (incl. off BS) 49,740 49,516 61,990 88,947 1,41,556 1,91,042 2,58,645 3,61,275 AUM Mix E 2019E 2020E AUM (INR b) 37,043 44,490 55,677 82,213 1,07,339 1,48,189 2,01,282 2,77,169 Change (%) On BS (%) Off BS (%) February

8 Financials and Valuations RATIOS Y/E MARCH E 2019E 2020E Spreads Analysis (%) Avg. Yield - on earning assets Avg. Yield - on loans Avg. Cost of funds Spreads Net Interest Margin Net Interest Margin (Incl off BS) Profitability Ratios (%) RoE RoA (On balance Sheet) RoA (incl off BS AUM) Op. Exps./Net Income Empl. Cost/Op. Exps Asset-Liability Profile (%) Net NPAs to Adv Debt/Equity (x) Assets/Equity (Avg) Assets/Equity (Avg - Incl off) CAR Tier I Valuations E 2019E 2020E Book Value (INR) BV Growth (%) Price-BV (x) EPS (INR) Adjusted EPS (INR) EPS Growth (%) Price-Earnings (x) E: MOSL Estimates 28 February

9 N O T E S 28 February

10 Explanation of Investment Rating Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month) BUY >=15% SELL < - 10% NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15% UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation *In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend. Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). AU Small Finance Bank Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. 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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai ; Tel No.: ; Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai Tel No: Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.: Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ (BSE/NSE/MSE); CDSL: IN-DP ; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL ; Research Analyst: INH AMFI: ARN Investment Adviser: INA Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP ) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP ) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products 28 February