Kotak Portfolio Management Services Pharma Focused Strategy. April 2018

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1 Kotak Portfolio Management Services Pharma Focused Strategy April 2018

2 Kotak Portfolio Management Services Strong Pedigree Enviable Track Record 2

3 Strong Pedigree And Client Focus Amongst the Oldest PMS on the street Over a decade of experience in the Indian capital markets Part of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co Proven track record of market beating performance Since inception, Special Situations Value portfolio has generated a CAGR of 28.1% vs. Nifty 500 at 14.5 % Strong Research and Operations team 8 member research team In-house, top-notch, IT systems and back-office support Consistent client interaction Quarterly performance reporting Fund manager outlook 3

4 Broad Investment Strategy 1. Large market opportunity : Market size should be at least 2x company s current sales. This gives the company a long runway for future growth 2. Businesses with robust competitive advantages : Strong brands, High Switching costs, Network economics, Low cost advantages or Innovative products 3. Strong Financials and Earnings Growth : We prefer low debt companies and our portfolio debt to equity is under 0.5x. We prefer companies with earnings growth and margins higher than their peers 4. Management Dynamism and Good Corporate Governance : We prefer companies with passionate and transparent management. Asset turns and working capital turns at industry levels or trending there 5. Fair Valuations : We look to buy businesses at fair valuations, where future earnings growth is not priced in 4

5 What is the source of our edge? There are three broad sources of outperformance on the Street Information Asymmetry Insider trading rules, hence not possible Superior analysis of same data Possible only in pockets, as the street is crowded with analysts Our focus areas Behavioral differentiation Awareness of human biases and avoidance of same Durable Differentiator Work to consciously avoid Common human biases Social Proof: Herd like behavior, for safety in crowds Overconfidence and Over-optimism: In one s business assessment Present-ism: Projecting immediate past into future Misunderstanding randomness: Seeing patterns where none exist 5 Anchoring: On irrelevant data, etc.

6 PMS Team Details Anshul Saigal: Head - PMS; Senior Vice President & Portfolio Manager Key Responsibilities: Heads the Portfolio Management Services (PMS) business of KMAMC. He is an expert on value investing principles - preserving capital and generating market beating returns. Experience: 16 years of Indian capital markets, of which he has spent over 10 years with Kotak Portfolio Management Services. Prior to this, Anshul has worked with JP Morgan (Equity Research), ICICI Bank and Standard Chartered Bank, where he analysed equities and corporate credit. Educational Background: MBA (Finance), B.E. (Industrial Engineering) Ashish Jagnani Key Responsibilities: Equity Research Analysis Experience: 15 years of Indian Capital markets. He had been a voted Equity Research analyst with Asia Money, Asia Institutional investor survey during his analyst tenure with Global Research firms like UBS, Citigroup and covered a wide range of sectors Educational Background: C.A., Masters in Financial Management Rukun Tarachandani Key Responsibilities: Equity Research Analyst Experience: 5 years in Indian Capital Markets of which he has spent 3 years with Kotak PMS. Prior to Kotak, he was with Goldman Sachs Educational Background: MBA (Finance), B.E. (Information Technology). Cleared all the three levels of CFA. 6 Aditya Suresh Joshi, CFA, CFP Key Responsibilities: Business Growth & Equity Research. Experience: 10 years in Indian Capital Markets of which the last 8 years he has served with the Kotak Group. He started his career in the investment advisory/wealth management domain and then moved on to the research side. Educational Background: B.E.(Mech), MBA (Finance), Certified Financial Planner (CFP), Chartered Financial Analyst, USA (CFA)

7 Research Team Name Sector Managed/ Portfolio Managed Education Background Total Experience Ms. Shibani S Kurian Head Equity Research, BFSI,IT and Economy B.Sc (Hons) - Economics, PGDM 16 yrs Mr. Akshit Gandhi Cement, Building material and Sugar MBA Finance, CFA 14 yrs Mr. Devender Singhal FMCG, Auto, Paints and Consumer Discretionary B. A(Hons) Maths, PGDM 15 yrs Mr. Nalin Bhatt Infrastructure, Power Utilities, Real Estate, Airports,Ports B. Com, CA 12 yrs Mr. Mandar Pawar Oil & Gas, Metals, Pipes, Shipping, Retail and Logistics B.Com, MMS 11 yrs Mr. Dhananjay Tikariha Telecom, Capital goods, Industrials, Pharmaceuticals B.Tech, PGDM 10 yrs Mr. Arjun Khanna Auto Ancillary, Media,Midcaps and Hotel B.Eng., MMS(Finance), CFA 9 yrs 7

8 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 SSV Significant outperformance Performance of 100 invested at Inception (31st July 2012 ) Kotak SSV Nifty Date of Inception 31-Jul-12 INR (%) 3 Months 6 Months 9 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 year Since Incp. KMAMC Special Situations Nifty * Returns are of Model Portfolio (net of management fee) ** Returns are annualised for periods greater than 1 year 8

9 SSV Portfolio Construct Sector Allocation March 2018 Cash & Cash Equivalent 7% Agri Commodities 7% Textiles 17% Technology 4% Banking and Financial Services 21% Real Estate Development 5% Pharmaceutical & Healthcare 1% Paper 3% Others 3% Mining 9% Media 4% Engineering and Capital Goods 11% Consumer Products 8% Market Cap Break up March 2018 Cash 7% Large Cap 34% Disclaimer : As per our Classification 9 Small Cap : below 1,500 Cr Mid Cap : above 1,500 Cr and below 10,000 Cr Large Cap : above 10,000 Cr Midcap 55% Small Cap 4%

10 Pharma Sector Opportunity to average in 10

11 Pharma Wealth creators in the last cycle 2,50,000 In. Cr 2,00,000 1,50,000 1,00,000 12x 50,000-16x 7x 2x 4x Sun Pharma Lupin Cadila Cipla Dr. Reddy's FY06 FY09 FY12 FY15 Pharma large caps have been the leading wealth creators of the last cycle, driven by robust US growth and high profitability in India

12 12 And more Dollar Billionaires than any other sector

13 Pharma Sector has been a big outperformer In last 15 years Rs 1 Cr invested in Pharma index would be over Rs 11.1 Cr today, while the same amount invested in Nifty would be Rs 7.25 Cr 13

14 Pharma Sector has been a big outperformer 14 Same story in last 7 years Rs 1 Cr invested in Pharma index would be over Rs 5.9 Cr today. Same amount invested in Nifty would be Rs 3.1 Cr

15 Law of average also applies to Pharma Sector Trend changed over last 1 year, with Pharma index underperforming Nifty by 5.4%... Reversion to the mean 15

16 Pharma Sector Past, Present and Future Potential 16

17 Pharma Sector Sustainable Value Creation Drivers Secular growth outlook, reasonably insulated across business cycles Penetration & US FDA compliance to drive years of growth Moving from simple to complex/ specialty products would provide long term opportunity of growth Scalable Business Huge domestic patient population Globally competitive: Most global sector out of India selling in over 100 countries Shareholder Return Business/Consumer Sector Characteristics High ROE Strong cash flows Low Capex Offers a combination of stability & growth potential Key beneficiary of the currency depreciation Last 1 year INR depreciated over 6% vs US Dollar 17

18 Pharma outperformance has been driven by Earnings BSE healthcare has generated an amazing 11% CAGR alpha over BSE Sensex The alpha has been mostly a result of superior earnings growth. BSE HC grew earnings at a CAGR of 20% vs 9% for the Sensex Pharma sector earnings have grown at 2x the broader market % -2% 18% 9% -2% 7% Earnings CAGR Multiple Compression Stock Return Earnings CAGR Multiple Compression Stock Return BSE Healthcare BSE Sensex 18 Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Asset Management

19 Earnings growth was driven by industry strength Increasing generic penetration in US (largest pharma market) USFDA efforts to promote generics led to faster approvals Large number of patent expiries of large products and shortages leading to opportunities for super normal gains Volume growth in US Markets accelerated These volumes were of higher realizations than the home market and hence higher margins Steady strong growth in the India, which generated cash for investing in R&D and US entry High profitability from the emerging markets Last ten years were a golden period for profitability and wealth creation in the sector

20 However..dynamics are changing Volume growth decelerated from past levels due to USFDA doubling total number of ANDA approvals as a result of GDUFA (Generic Drug user fee Act) implementation to increase competition Size of patent expiries in chemical entities plateauing Focus of USFDA on improving quality impacting facility approvals Margins have also been under pressure as Consolidation in US distribution channel has impacted pricing There has been an increasing political focus on price hikes These developments have impacted profitability.

21 Q1FY12 Q2FY12E Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Leading to Blip in Large Caps EBIDTA growth (10) (20) Growth P/E Earnings Trajectory to move upwards. Valuations to follow? Sector hit an air pocket after robust growth for many years. Valuations however were still at peak. Sector was primed for a correction

22 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 and Mid Cap EBIDTA growth, with resultant correction in valuations 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% -30% -50% Ebitda growth (LHS) PE (RHS) 22 Similarly in Mid Cap space also EBITDA compression led to valuation compression

23 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 and valuations have become reasonable 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Average: 48% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EV/EBITDA premium of BSE HC over Nifty % Source: Capitaline, Kotak Asset Management Valuations have corrected now and are below historical average 23

24 Multiples of Key stocks have corrected significantly from peak Sun Pharma Lupin Dr. Reddy Cipla Cadila Peak P/E Multiple Current P/E multiple 24 Have these stocks become bargains?? PE Multiples have corrected between 25% to 35%

25 Pharma sector is in consolidation phase Indicators FY06-15 Up cycle FY16-17 Consolidation FY18 onwards Up cycle Growth Robust growth in US and India Moderate US growth. Steady growth in India Moderate growth in US and India Competition low due to rapid expansion of mkt High due to large number of players Low in complex and speciality products Regulatory issues Low as USFDA promoted generics High as USFDA is pushing to improve quality Likely to see decline in as companies become compliant Profitability Stock returns Sharp Improvement 5x-15x Steady Correction & consolidation Expected to improve as companies move into complex products Should do well again Growth is likely to return in the ensuing future, with concerns largely priced in

26 Large US Opportunity Secular Generics Play 26

27 US Markets major growth driver US is the largest market in terms of healthcare spending (per capita healthcare cost ($8508) in the world There are concerted efforts to reduce this cost with higher aging population & slowdown in economy. Obama Healthcare (The Affordable Care Act) focuses on providing more Americans with access to affordable health insurance, improving the quality of health care and health insurance, regulating the health insurance industry, and reducing health care spending in the US and hence higher usage of generic drugs. This has provided a very big opportunity for Indian pharma companies to tap the huge generic market in the US 27 The US generics opportunity expected to be huge over the next 5 yrs

28 Healthcare is at the center of US Political & Social debates After Esmin Green, a 49-year-old black woman, was involuntarily admitted for "agitation and psychosis, she collapsed and died on the floor of a waiting room at a Brooklyn psychiatric hospital and lay there for more than an hour as employees ignored her. Upon her admission, Green had waited nearly 24 hours for treatment. Since the video went viral, there was a public furore about the state of US healthcare 28

29 Pharma Sector Macro environment favourable for the sector 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Generics share of prescriptions in US 88% 72% 52% 43% 33% 19% Share of Generics in prescriptions has risen from 19% in 1984 to 88% in This trend is likely to favor Indian Pharma

30 Pharma Sector Macro environment favourable for the sector USD 88 Bn of drugs will go off patent in next 5 years and Indian Pharma will be the key beneficiary

31 US: 10 years of strong growth for Indian Companies US$ Mn 31 Source: Companies, US FDA Disproportionate growth of Indian generics companies over last 10 years is expected to be replicated in the coming years

32 Still Revenues of Indian Generics are miniscule v/s Large Global Generics Teva $19.5 Bn Allergan $17.8 Bn Mylan $9.8 Bn Sandoz $10 Bn Sun Pharma $4.3Bn The largest Indian Generics company (Sun Pharma) is small by global generics standards. Large Canvas for Growth

33 Domestic Opportunities Big Consumption Play 33

34 India is underserved and underpenetrated Per Capita consumption of medication in India is amongst the lowest in the developing world. Room for Secular Growth 34

35 Many drivers for growth of Indian Pharma market 35 Growth to be driven by a combination of low penetration, growing markets and increasing insurance coverage/ household incomes

36 Emerging Market Opportunity & CRAMS Huge untapped market 36

37 EM: India s Penetration of EM s is miniscule large room for growth Source: Capitaline, Kotak Asset Management Branded generics dominate sales in emerging markets. Indian Pharma cos have core competence in this space, which they can leverage to grow 37 beyond their sub 5% share

38 EM: Market opportunity is large Source: Capitaline, Kotak Asset Management The incremental emerging market opportunity is over $200 Bn and growing at a CAGR of 7% 38

39 CRAMS: Drivers for outsourcing Global majors desire to focus on research is a key driver for growth in outsourcing. India with a low market share to be a key beneficiary 39

40 Pharma Sector Opportunity Secular Upside Ahead 40

41 Pharma Sector - High growth the norm 16% 14% 12% Revenue Growth (CAGR) Nifty 500 BSE Healthcare 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 9% 9% 4% Source: Capitaline, Kotak Asset Management E Revenue growth of pharma companies is expected to outpace that of Nifty companies over the next two years 41

42 Pharma Sector High RoE at Reasonable Valuations Return on Equity (Avg) 22% Nifty 500 BSE Healthcare 20% 19% 19% 18% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Source: Capitaline, Kotak Asset Management E Pharma companies return ratios are also superior by a margin 42

43 M&A protects downside 43 The sector has witnessed large M&A activity over the last few years, which has ensured downside protection

44 Indian companies in Pharma sector are world class Windlas Healthcare, a small drug manufacturer which set up a tablet manufacturing unit in Dehradun, is one such firm that has come up trumps from a pre-approval inspection by US FDA in February. "We closely examined and reexamined the reams of FDA warning letters and made our processes foolproof against chances of deviations, or human errors, that were mentioned in those letters," Hitesh Windlass, chief executive, Windlas Healthcare, told ET. Source: Economic Times 44

45 Pharma IPOs have given handsome returns 80% 70% 74% 60% 50% 40% 30% 41% 39% 34% 28% 50% 32% 24% 56% 20% 14% 10% 0% Thyrocare Narayana Hrudalaya Dr Lal Pathlab Alkem Lab Syngene International % Gain on listing day % Gain since listing till date 45 There were 22 IPOs over last 1 year on the Indian bourses. 14 of them are trading in positive territory today. All 5 pharma IPOs are trading in positive territory

46 Universe 46 Name Segment Mkt Cap (Cr.) 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR 15 yr CAGR Sun Pharma.Inds. Formulation 197,219 30% 25% 31% Lupin Formulation 66,698 29% 31% 59% Dr Reddy's Labs Formulation 51,778 13% 16% 16% Cipla Formulation 41,149 10% 7% 13% Cadila Health. Formulation 32,448 15% 22% 27% Glaxosmit Pharma Formulation 32,192 13% 10% 16% Torrent Pharma. Formulation 22,670 36% 29% 36% Glenmark Pharma. Formulation 22,412 23% 18% 38% Piramal Enterp. Formulation 17,877 20% 15% 22% Alkem Lab Formulation 16,339 NA NA NA Ajanta Pharma Formulation 12, % 64% 38% Alembic Pharma Formulation 11,321 NA NA NA Wockhardt Formulation 10,754 25% 7% 14% Strides Shasun Formulation 9,725 24% 12% NA Biocon Formulation 9,642 7% 8% NA Syngene Intl. Formulation 7,685 NA NA NA Ipca Labs. Formulation 7,316 14% 24% 34% Natco Pharma Formulation 7,177 50% 31% 41% Sequent Scien. Formulation 3,488 55% 34% NA FDC Formulation 3,294 13% 14% 21% Denotes outperformance over Nifty 50 Denotes underperformance over Nifty 50

47 Universe 47 Name Segment Mkt Cap (Cr.) 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR 15 yr CAGR Dishman Pharma. Formulation 2,710 27% 6% NA Indoco Remedies Formulation 2,653 37% 19% NA J B Chem & Pharm Formulation 2,115 13% 8% 20% Unichem Labs. Formulation 2,016 3% 7% 19% Aurobindo Pharma API 43,595 50% 27% 30% Divi's Lab. API 26,150 24% 27% NA Jubilant Life API 6,632 20% 5% 36% Shilpa Medicare API 3,301 37% 32% NA Granules India API 2,599 67% 29% NA Suven Life Scie. API 2,454 63% 25% 25% Vinati Organics API 2,001 40% 59% 39% Abbott India MNC 10,003 28% 22% 20% Sanofi India MNC 9,212 15% 7% 16% Pfizer MNC 8,173 8% 4% 8% Astrazeneca Phar MNC 2,892-2% 6% 20% Novartis India MNC 2,073 0% 1% 6% Apollo Hospitals Hospitals 18,426 23% 18% 23% Fortis Health. Hospitals 8,126 3% NA NA Narayana Hrudaya Hospitals 5,839 NA NA NA Dr Lal Pathlabs Diagnostics 7,619 NA NA NA Denotes outperformance over Nifty 50 Denotes underperformance over Nifty 50

48 48 Catching a falling knife

49 Recommendation NSE Pharma Index has underperformed NIFTY in FY 16 by ~ 6.4 %. Few Pharma Stocks have corrected for concerns like US FDA issues, Few are in the process of correcting. The underperformance may continue in FY 17 due to US FDA related challenges and Rebuilding of pipeline for US Markets. Market is likely to have discounted many of the concerns & hence could provide opportunity for a long term investor Recommend to invest on a STP ( Systematic Transfer Plan ) or SIP (Systematic Investment Plan ) basis in FY 17 to average your entry into a Pharma Sector Portfolio We are aiming to play for a revival in Pharma Sector over FY19 onwards. Investment horizon of more than three years is a must. 49 Risk to the strategy is regulatory changes not priced by the market, inability of Indian Companies to meet US FDA standards, longer recovery cycle than priced by the market.

50 Important Notice Investments in securities are subject to market risk and there is no assurance or guarantee of the objectives of the Portfolio being achieved or safety of corpus. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Investors must keep in mind that the aforementioned statements/presentation cannot disclose all the risks and characteristics. Investors are requested to read and understand the investment strategy, and take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile, and the like and take professional advice before investing. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We have reviewed the document though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither the company, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own independent professional advice. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Investors and others are cautioned that any forward - looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe this restriction. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Statutory Details: Portfolio Manager: Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd. SEBI Reg No: INP Registered Office: 27 BKC, C-27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai , Principal Place of Business: 2 nd Floor, 12 BKC, Plot No. C-12, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai Address of correspondence :6th Floor Kotak Towers, Building No 21 Infinity Park, Off W. E. Highway, Gen A K. Vaidya Marg, Malad (E), Mumbai Contact details: