INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER INDEX

Transcription

1 NDUSTRA RODUCTON NDEX NDUSTRA TURNOVER NDEX 1. urose, naure and use The ndusrial roducion ndex is а rincial shor-erm economic business indicaor, which aims o measure a a monhly frequency he us and downs of indusrial roducion during he long eriod of ime. Monhly survey allows idenifying he urning oins in economic develomen a an early sage; also, he imely indusrial roducion index is one of he mos imoran measures of economic aciviy. The ndusrial Turnover ndex is oher imoran shor-erm indicaor, which measure he develomen of he marke of goods and services. Turnover index gives measure of he develomen of he receis of sales including he sales of goods (merchanmen goods) and services rovided o oher aries. 2. Definiion and sources of informaion ndusrial roducion index mus reflec: (1) Variaions in ye and qualiy of he commodiies and of he inu maerials; (2) Changes in socks of finished goods and changes in work in rogress; (3) Relaed services, such as assembling of roducion unis, mouning, insallaion, reairs, lanning, engineering. For comilaion of ndusrial roducion index NS has acceed mehod of deflaed value of roducion The Turnover comrises he oals invoiced by he observaion unis during he reference eriod: receis from sales of own roducs and services; a sale of merchaned goods (resale), Turnover includes all duies and axes on roducs (excise duies) invoiced by he uni, bu excludes value added ax. also includes all oher charges (ransor, ackaging ec.) assed on o he cusomer, even if hese charges are invoiced searaely. ndusrial roducion and ndusrial Turnover ndexes measure changes in roducion and resecively in urnover beween wo differen eriods of ime. The survey do no aem o measure he acual roducion level, i aims o measure he average change in value of roducion beween wo oins of ime. The indexes are based on monhly survey Sales in indusry, consrucion rade and services. For calculaion he indusrial roducion, NS uses aroximaion o he roducion value ha is calculaed as receis from sales of finished roducs, goods and services minus value of goods urchased for resale in he same condiions as received, correced wih changes in socks of finished roducs. Turnover includes all receis from sales 1

2 (including sales of raw maerials), excluding financial income and receis from sales of fixed asses. ndusrial roducion and urnover cover all aciviy of he enerrises, values of subsidiary, non-indusrial aciviies of he enerrises are included. 3. Coverage, model and samle size ndusrial roducion and ndusrial Turnover ndexes are calculaed by economic aciviies for Mining and quarrying indusry, manufacuring indusry and Elecriciy, gas, seam and air condiioning suly. ndexes are calculaed by economic aciviies a division level (2-nd digi level of NACE.BG 28), a secion level, for Main ndusrial Grouings (MGs: nermediae roducs, nvesmen roducs, Consumer durable roducs, Consumer non-durable roducs, Energy roducs) and for oal ndusry level. ndexes are calculaed a fixed base year, which according o requiremens of Regulaion 1158/25 and amending Regulaion 1168/98, concerning shor-erm saisics is changed every 5 years, ending by 5 or 1. The samling oulaion includes enerrises wih more han 9 ersons emloyed. Monhly is observed a samle of enerrises (exraced from he samling oulaion) ha have nearly 98% share in he oal urnover in indusry. The samle mehod used is Sraified Random Samle. Crierion for sraificaion of he enerrises is number of ersons emloyed. Firs enerrises are sraified by grous (3-h digi level of NACE.BG 28) and hen in each grou hey are sraifies by number of ersons emloyed. Enerrises wih 1 or more emloyees are surveyed exhausively. Enerrises emloying beween 1 and 99 emloyees are randomly samled, enerrises ha have less han 9 emloyees are no observed monhly. 4. Calculaion of ndusrial roducion and ndusrial Turnover ndexes The roducion value of indusrial enerrises deends on quaniies roduced as well as deends on chances in rices. For ndusrial roducion index comilaion, he values are deflaed wih roducer rice indexes in order o isolae he rice (inflaion) flucoaions and he real roducion develomens o be resened. Turnover indexes are calculaed hrough direc comarison of he values of he urnover a curren rices, urnover values are no correced wih he rice changes. The Turnover indexes reflec he develomen of he value of sales as well as changes in rices. ndusrial roducion and ndusrial urnover indexes are base weighed (aseyres) indexes; currenly he base year is Calculaion of monhly base year ndusrial roducion index (21 =1) The calculaion of ndusrial roducion index involves wo sage calculaion rogess: Calculaion he index a lowes level - 3-h digi level of NACE.BG 28 Calculaion he aggregaed indexes a differen aggregaion levels. 1 Since January 213 ndusrial roducion indexes and Turnover indexes are calculaed a 21 as s base year. Hisorical daa are recalculaed a he new base year and hey are ublished a NS web age. 2

3 Calculaion he ndusrial roducion index a grou level (3-h digi of NACE.BG 28. A ha sage index calculaion is made on he bases of direc comarison of he daa from he curren monh a consan rices and daa on he average monhly roducion value in he base (21) year. roducion value is deflaed a 3-h digi level of NACE.BG 28 wih he Toal roducer rice index ha is calculaed as weighed average of roducer rice indexes on domesic marke and roducer rice index on nondomesic marke. 2 W W /12 - ndusrial roducion index for aciviy W, ; W - roducion value in he curren eriod and in he base eriod resecively - Toal roducer rice indexes in he curren eriod a he base year -21 /12 - Average monhly roducion value in he base year W Calculaion of ndusrial roducion index a higher levels of aggregaion. ndusrial roducion indexes a higher level of aggregaion division (2-nd digi level), secion, Main indusrial grouings and oal ndusry level are calculaed as base weighed (aseyres) indexes - ha is o say hey are weighed according o he value added a facor coss in he base year, currenly 21. The source for aciviy weigh -value added a facor coss is received from Srucural Business Saisics survey ha is based on annual enerrise s accouns and i is defined as difference beween roducion value and inermediae consumion minus duies and axes linked o roducion. ndusrial roducion indexes a higher levels of aggregaion (2-nd digi level and higher) are calculaed as weighed average - indexes a lower levels are weighed wih he value added a facor cos srucure. n 1 ( * v ) - ndusrial roducion index in monh - ndusrial roducion index for grou (division) in monh v - Value added a facor cos srucure in he base year Calculaion of monhly base year ndusrial urnover index (21 =1). 2 The Toal roducer rice index a differen level of aggregaion is calculaed from roducer rice indexes on domesic marke and roducer rice index on non-domesic marke, weighed wih he sales srucure on domesic marke and on non-domesic marke o he oal sales a each level of aggregaion. 3

4 Three Turnover indexes are calculaed: Turnover indexes on domesic marke, Turnover indexes on non-domesic marke and Toal urnover indexes. Firs Turnover indexes on domesic marke and Turnover indexes on non domesic marke are calculaed. A he lowes level of aggregaion (3-h digi level of NACE.BG 28) indexes calculaion is made on he bases of direc comarison of he daa from he curren monh and daa on he average monhly urnover value in he base (21) year. ( ) k () k () T h hk Th hk T h() /12 T ( ) h () /12 - ndusrial urnover index on domesic/ non-domesic marke in eriod - Turnover value on domesic/ non-domesic marke in eriod - Average monhly urnover value on domesic/ non-domesic marke in he base year (21) A higher levels of aggregaion ndusrial urnover indexes on domesic and on nondomesic marke are calculaed as weighed average - indexes a lower levels are weighed wih urnover srucure in he base year following he srucure of he NACE.BG 28 Toal ndusrial urnover indexes are calculaed from Turnover indexes on domesic marke and Turnover indexes on non-domesic marke weighed wih he urnover srucure on domesic and on non-domesic marke o he oal value of urnover a each level of aggregaion. T * * DMT vdm NDMT vdm vndm v NDM T - Toal ndusrial urnover index DMT - Turnover index on domesic marke NDMT - Turnover index on non-domesic marke v - Turnover value on domesic marke in he base year DM NDM v - Turnover value on non-domesic marke in he base year 4.3. Calculaion of base year roducion indexes for differen eriods of ime. ndexes for differen eriods of ime a 21 as a base are calculaed as a simle average of he monhly base year rice indexes. For examle he rice index for he eriod from he beginning of he year can be calculaed as a sum of he monhly base year indexes from he beginning of he year divided by he number of he monhs wihin ha eriod. 4

5 n T 1 n T - ndex for he eriod from he beginning of he year a 21 as a base - Monhly index for monh n - Number of he monhs wihin he eriod 4.4. Calculaion of he monhly indexes and indexes for eriods a differen index base. From calculaed in such a way base year indexes migh be calculaed monhly indexes (examle index for he curren monh according o he revious monh or o he corresonding monh of he revious year) and indexes for eriods of ime (examle index for he eriod from he beginning of he year o he corresonding eriod of he revious year) a differen index base. / 1 * 1; / 12 * / 1 - ndex according o he revious monh / 12 - ndex according o he same monh of he revious year - Monhly base year index (for monh ) - Monhly base year index for revious monh (for monh -1) 1 - Monhly base year index for he dame monh of he revious year (-12) Seasonal and working day adjusmen of ndusrial roducion index n accordance wih Regulaions concerning STS only ndusrial roducion indexes are seasonally adjused (ndex of urnover in indusry are no seasonally adjused, only original (no seasonally adjused) daa are ublished). Working day adjusmen is an adjusmen for variaions caused by calendar effecs, differen number of calendar and working days in he monhs, naional holydays and ouliers. n working day adjusmen he ime series are esed for calendar effec. Calendar effecs yically include: - he differen number of working days in a secific monh, - he comosiion of working days, - he lea year effec, moving holidays such Easer. Seasonal adjusmen is a saisical mehod, which eliminaes he seasonal comonen of ime series and i is aricularly suiable for long-erm comarisons and analysis of he daa. n seasonal adjusmen he following aroach is alied: 5

6 The series are checked for ouliers of differen yes, wih auomaic rocedure for deecing ouliers; Comlee auomaic rocedure for auomaic selecion wihin a large number of models, afer checking for model adequacy using sandard saisical ess (e.g. normaliy, heeroskedasiciy, serial correlaion, ec.); Auomaic decomosiion scheme selecion using informaion crieria.the decomosiion scheme secifies how he various comonens - rend-cycle, seasonal and calendar comonen and irregular combine o form he original series. Usually, he defaul decomosiion scheme is mulilicaive, because in mos economic ime series, he magniudes of he seasonal comonen vary roorionally o he level of he series; Direc seasonal adjusmen is erformed. 6. ubliciy and ransarency The ndusrial roducion ndexes are firsly released 37-4 days afer he end of he reference monh. The announcemen includes he base year seasonally and working day adjused ndusrial roducion indexes as well as indexes changes according o he recious monh (calculaed from seasonally adjused daa) and indexes changes according o he same monh of he revious year (calculaed from working day adjused daa) h:// h:// ndusrial roducion ndexes and ndusrial Turnover ndexes (oal on domesic marke and on non-domesic marke) ime series (from January 2) a 2-nd digi and higher level of aggregaion of NACE.BG-28 are available on he websie of NS in he online daabase NFOSTAT: hs://infosa.nsi.bg/infosa/ages/module.jsf?x_2=188 6