Financial results for Q4 and full year 2017

Transcription

1 Financial results for Q4 and full year 2017 CEO Karl-Henrik Sundström CFO Seppo Parvi

2 Disclaimer It should be noted that Stora Enso and its business are exposed to various risks and uncertainties and certain statements herein which are not historical facts, including, without limitation those regarding expectations for market growth and developments; expectations for growth and profitability; and statements preceded by believes, expects, anticipates, foresees, or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. Since these statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, they involve risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to materially differ from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: (1) operating factors such as continued success of manufacturing activities and the achievement of efficiencies therein, continued success of product development, acceptance of new products or services by the group s targeted customers, success of the existing and future collaboration arrangements, changes in business strategy or development plans or targets, changes in the degree of protection created by the group s patents and other intellectual property rights, the availability of capital on acceptable terms; (2) industry conditions, such as strength of product demand, intensity of competition, prevailing and future global market prices for the group s products and the pricing pressures thereto, price fluctuations in raw materials, financial condition of the customers and the competitors of the group, the potential introduction of competing products and technologies by competitors; and (3) general economic conditions, such as rates of economic growth in the group s principal geographic markets or fluctuations in exchange and interest rates. All statements are based on management s best assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to it and Stora Enso assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement except to the extent legally required. 2

3 Accelerated profitable growth. Q year-on-year Sales MEUR, +3.0%, excl. Paper +6.2% Fourth consecutive quarter of sales growth 7% of sales from new products and services in 2017 Operational EBIT 280 MEUR, +47%, EBIT margin 11.2% (7.8%) Cash flow from operations 519 MEUR (461 MEUR), after investing activities 262 MEUR (240 MEUR) Operational ROCE 13.5% (8.9%), second consecutive quarter above long-term target of 13% Strong cash generation strengthened the balance sheet further, net debt to operational EBITDA improved to 1.4 The 50 MEUR profit improvement programme Over 50% of the cost-savings achieved with full effect expected end of

4 and increased dividends third consecutive year Confirmation of transformation Dividend proposal of 0.41 EUR per share for 2017 totalling 323 MEUR, increased by 11% Dividend policy: Strive to pay stable dividends linked to the long-term performance One half of net profits over a business cycle *Dividend proposal 4

5 Operational EBIT increased 47% Demonstrating the strength of transformation Q4 y-o-y 5

6 Transformation steps during 2017 Yet another active year Ramp-up of new projects - Beihai Mill - Varkaus kraftliner - Varkaus LVL - Murów sawmill - Ala pellet Acquisitions - Letter of intent aiming at structural changes in Bergvik Skog signed Divestments and closures - Kvarnsveden SC 100 kt PM closure - Re-board business in Sweden - Bulleh Shah Packaging - Puumerkki, a wholesaler of wooden building materials in Finland - Baienfurt sheeting centre in Germany New investments CAPEX 350 MEUR* Completed project in 2017: - Beihai PE coating line - Imatra PE coating line and automated warehouse - Skoghall chemical plant - MFC Imatra and Fors Ongoing projects: - Skutskär fluff pulp - Lahti corrugated packaging - Heinola Fluting Mill capacity increase - Hylte biocomposite granules - Gruvön CLT production unit - Tychy corrugated plant - China Packaging capacity extension and technology - Ingerois MFC - Enocell dissolving pulp - Imatra CTMP drying capacity * Capex excluding maintenance capex 6

7 Beihai Mill reached operational EBITDA break-even Much more to come The consumer board machine in Beihai reached operational EBITDA break-even in Q4/2017 as promised (excluding insurance compensation) Ramp-up continued ahead of plan and the consumer board machine reached its designed capacity level Production volume (72 000) tonnes in Q4/2017 Beihai Mill has moved now to a new stage of global optimisation of the product portfolio within the Consumer Board division, and the separate reporting on Beihai will be discontinued 7

8 Transformation journey Growth businesses 71% of sales and 84% of operational EBIT Consumer Board Packaging Solutions 1 Biomaterials Wood Products Paper 2 Other & eliminations 1 In 2006 included in Consumer Board 2 In 2006 includes merchants 8

9 Accelerated profitable growth Summary financials Q EUR million Q4/17 Q4/16 Change% Q4/17- Q4/16 Q3/17 Change% Q4/17- Q3/ Change % 2017/2016 Sales % % % Operational EBITDA % % % Operational EBITDA margin 17.0% 14.1% 17.2% 15.8% 14.9% Operational EBIT % % % Operational EBIT margin 11.2% 7.8% 11.6% 10.0% 9.0% Profit before tax excl. IAC % % % EPS excl. IAC, EUR EPS (basic), EUR Operational ROCE 13.5% 8.9% 13.9% 11.9% 10.2% Operational ROCE excl. Beihai operations 15.7% 12.1% 16.3% 14.3% 13.0% Cash Flow from Operations % % % Net debt/last 12 months operational EBITDA

10 Consumer Board Beihai Mill reached operational EBITDA break-even as promised Q4 y-o-y Sales +10% to 636 MEUR Improved volumes, sales prices and mix in Beihai Mill Operational EBIT 69 MEUR +82% Clear improvement at Beihai Mill Operational ROOC excluding Beihai operations 32.1% (30.8%) Beihai ramp-up continue ahead of the plan Operational EBITDA break-even reached during Q4/2017 as promised, excluding insurance compensation CTMP investment at Imatra Mills in Finland announced in October Completed investments during the quarter PE plant at Beihai Mill, China PE plant and automated warehouse at Imatra Mills, Finland Chemical plant at Skoghall Mill, Sweden MFC investments at Imatra and Fors mills 10

11 Packaging Solutions Record sales and profitability continue Q4 y-o-y Sales +18% to all-time high Q4 at 334 MEUR Favourable prices in European operations and growth in China Packaging Operational EBIT record high at 58 MEUR Clearly higher sales prices especially in containerboard, good sales mix management and operational improvements in China Packaging Third consecutive quarter with record high sales and profitability Operational ROOC 26.9% (8.8%) Varkaus kraftliner mill in Finland exceeded its profitability target set for the investment 11

12 Biomaterials Capitalising on favourable pulp prices Q4 y-o-y Sales +4% to 364 MEUR Clearly higher sales prices, partly offset by negative FX impact and lower deliveries due to altered sequencing of the annual maintenance shutdowns and production problems mainly at Skutskär and Montes del Plata mills Operational EBIT +53% to 61 MEUR Clearly higher pulp prices, partly offset by higher maintenance costs and lower volumes. Negative net FX also decreased profitability Investment in a Xylose demo plant in Raceland, LA, USA proceeded to the commissioning phase First commercial deliveries expected during 2018 An 52 MEUR investment at Enocell Mill to increase its dissolving pulp capacity from 150k tonnes to 430k tonnes, announced in October Skutskär Mill fluff pulp investment proceeding according to plan and expected to be completed in Q2/

13 Wood Products Highest ever Q4 operational EBIT Q4 y-o-y Sales increased 6% excluding the divested Puumerkki and the Baltic wood supply operations (transferred to the segment Other) Growth from strategic investments Murów, Varkaus LVL and Ala pellet Highest ever fourth quarter operational EBIT at 25 MEUR Improved net mill price and increased share of value added business more than offset slightly higher raw material and fixed costs Ramp-up of the LVL production at Varkaus Mill continues Full production expected in mid-2018 CLT investment at Gruvön, Sweden proceeding as planned Scheduled to begin during Q1/

14 Paper Back on track Q4 y-o-y Sales decreased -34 MEUR to 726 MEUR following the incident at Veitsiluoto Mill PM2 in Q3/2017 Increased local sales prices in all grades, except for coated mechanical, was partly offset by negative FX impact Operational EBIT decreased by -18 MEUR to 46 MEUR Lower volumes and additional repair costs related to the incident at Veitsiluoto Mill, and higher variable costs especially for paper for recycling and chemicals Cash flow after investing activities to sales ratio 6.3% Result of lower EBITDA and higher capex, both impacted by the incident at Veitsiluoto Mill 14

15 Nordic wood supply situation Challenging harvesting conditions in the Nordics due to mild weather in Q4/2017 Possible limitations of Russian birch plywood exports may cause disturbance also to pulpwood exports Actively managing challenging harvesting conditions enabling stable wood inventories in Q4/2017 y-o-y to ensure undisturbed wood supply to the mills Financial impact is expected to be marginal in Q1/

16 Steady progress in the right direction Group strategic targets Q4 16 Q Dividend To distribute 50% of net income over the cycle 0.37 EUR 0.41 EUR** Growth* To grow faster than the relevant market 4.5% (YoY) 6.2% (YoY) 3.1% (YoY) 8.5% (YoY) Net debt to operational EBITDA <3.0x Fixed costs to sales <20% 25.8% 26.9% 25.3% 25.1% Debt to equity <80% 47% 38% 47% 38% Operational ROCE >13% 8.9% 13.5% 10.2% 11.9% Operational ROCE excl. Beihai op. 12.1% 15.7% 13.0% 14.3% Divisional strategic targets Q4 16 Q Consumer Board Operational ROOC > 20% 7.4% 14.2% 12.7% 14.6% Consumer Board excl. Beihai op. 30.8% 32.1% 36.2% 36.7% Packaging Solutions Operational ROOC > 20% 8.8% 26.9% 7.6% 19.6% Biomaterials Operational ROOC > 15% 6.1% 10.4% 8.5% 10.5% Wood Products Operational ROOC > 20% 13.1% 18.5% 16.8% 20.5% Paper Cash flow after investing activities to sales > 7% 11.8% 6.3% 8.5% 5.5% * Excluding Paper ** Dividend proposal 16

17 Guidance for Q Compared to Q Sales are estimated to be similar to or slightly higher than the amount of MEUR recorded in Q4/2017 Operational EBIT is expected to be somewhat higher than the 280 MEUR recorded in Q4/2017 No major scheduled annual maintenance shutdowns in Q1/2018 Annual maintenance Q Q Q Consumer Board - Skoghall and Fors mills Packaging Solutions - Heinola Mill Biomaterials - Veracel and Skutskär mills Paper - Nymölla Mill 17

18 Accelerated profitable growth Demonstrating the strength of transformation Sales growth four consecutive quarters 7% of sales from new products and services Strategic projects, product mix and favourable prices drive profitable growth Sales growth 3.0%, excl. paper 6.2% ROCE 13.5% second consecutive quarter above strategic target Solid cash flow generation strengthened the balance sheet further; net debt/ebitda 1.4 Higher dividend proposed third year in a row Moving from asset transformation to innovation and sales transformation 18

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20 Operational EBIT by segments EUR million Q417 Q416 Change % Q417/Q416 Q317 Change % Q417/Q Change % 2017/2016 Consumer Board % % % % of sales 10.8% 6.6% 13.5% 11.3% 10.8% Packaging Solutions % % % % of sales 17.4% 6.7% 15.1% 13.5% 6.1% Biomaterials % % % % of sales 16.8% 11.5% 23.2% 17.8% 16.3% Wood Products % % % % of sales 6.3% 4.3% 7.0% 6.7% 5.5% Paper % % % % of sales 6.3% 8.4% 4.0% 4.4% 6.5% Other % % % % of sales 3.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 20

21 Year-on-year net debt/ebitda 21

22 Healthy cash flow generation continues 22

23 Cash flow by divisions in Q4 23

24 Capex is moving towards targeted level Maintenance capex Strategic capex Biological capex Capex estimate for 2018 Depreciation and operational decrease in the value of biological assets 24

25 Targeted ROOC is driving CAPEX allocation Capex forecast in 2018 *Operational ROOC target ** Cash flow after investing activities to sales target 25

26 Net Financials EUR million Q Q Change MEUR Q417/ Q416 Q Change MEUR Q417/ Q317 Net interest expense Average interest rate* 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% Foreign exchange gains and losses Other financial items. of which Fair valuation of interest rate derivatives** Fair valuation of long-term debt Pension costs (IAS 19R) Other items Total net financial items * Quarterly gross interest expense divided by average gross debt ** Not hedge accounted interest rate derivatives. 26

27 Net FX by division Net FX impact -23 MEUR in Q4/2017 on operational EBIT 27

28 Maturity profile Q Bonds Forest owner deposits Joint Venture financing Loans from financial institutions Other loans/liabilities Revolving Credit Facility 600 MEUR MEUR Revolving Credit Facility 600 MEUR matures in January 2023 and is fully undrawn 28

29 Transaction risk and hedges Q EUR Million USD SEK GBP Estimated annual operating cash flow exposure Transaction hedges as at 31 December Hedging percentage as at 31 December 2017 for the next 12 months 50% 53% 50% Operational EBIT: Currency strengthening of +10%* EUR million USD 126 SEK -96 GBP 36 *Before currency hedges assuming no other changes other than a single currency rate movement occurs 29

30 Sensitivity analysis Impact on operational EBIT 10% decrease in Impact* Energy prices Wood prices Chemical and filler prices Positive 13 MEUR Positive 182 MEUR Positive 64 MEUR 10% increase in Impact* Market pulp price, total Positive 105 MEUR 10% strengthening against Euro in the value of** Impact* US dollar Swedish krona British pound Brazilian real Positive 126 MEUR Negative 96 MEUR Positive 36 MEUR Negative 12 MEUR *Impact on operational EBIT for the next twelve months. ** Before FX hedges An increase of energy, wood or chemical and filler prices or decrease of pulp prices, as well as weakening of the currencies would have the opposite impact 30

31 Pulp sensitivity analysis 10% change in prices, impact on operational EBIT 10% increase in Impact* Hardwood pulp** prices Softwood pulp prices Fluff pulp prices Dissolving pulp prices Market pulp price, total Positive 45 MEUR Positive 35 MEUR Positive 15 MEUR Positive 10 MEUR Positive 105 MEUR * Impact on operational EBIT for the next twelve months. A decrease of pulp prices would have the opposite impact. ** Includes tonnes from Montes del Plata 31

32 Stora Enso energy balance* Q TWh/a Impact on non-hedged volume on operating profit from 10% change in: EUR million p.a. Electricity market price ~5.0 Fossil fuel price ~9.3 *) Pulp, paper and board mills in Europe and overseas, incl. Beihai 32

33 Stora Enso electricity procurement* Q *) Pulp, paper and board mills in Europe and overseas, incl. Beihai from year

34 Permanent pulp, paper and board capacity reductions since 2006 Mill Date Grade Capacity reduction, t Corbehem PM 3 and PM 4 Jun 2006 LWC Varkaus PM 1 End 2006 WFC Berghuizer Mill Oct 2007 WFU Reisholz Mill End 2007 SC Summa Mill Jan 2008 Newsprint, uncoated mag, book paper Anjala Mill PM1 Feb 2008 Coated magazine paper Baienfurt Mill End 2008 FBB Kabel Mill PM 3 End 2008 Coated magazine Kemijärvi Pulp Mill April 2008 Long-fibre (SW) pulp Norrsundet Pulp Mill Dec 2008 Long-fibre (SW), pulp Varkaus Mill coreboard machine Dec 2008 Coreboard Imatra PM 8 Mar 2010 WFU Varkaus PM 2 and PM 4 Sep 2010 Newsprint, directory paper Maxau PM 7 Nov 2010 Newsprint Hylte PM1 Dec 2012 Newsprint Ostroleka PM2 Jan 2013 Containerboard Hylte PM2 May 2013 Newsprint Kvarnsveden PM11 May 2013 Newsprint Veitsiluoto PM1 Apr 2014 Coated magazine Corbehem Mill July 2014 LWC Varkaus Aug 2015 WFU Suzhou Jun 2016 WFU Kvarnsveden PM8 Jun 2017 SC Total

35 Permanent sawn wood capacity reductions since 2006 Mill Date Capacity reduction, m 3 Veitsiluoto Sawmill Honkalahti Sawmill Sauga Sawmill Jun Sollenau Sawmill Näpi Sawmill Kotka Sawmill Paikuse Sawmill End Zdirec Sawmill Ybbs Sawmill 2008 & Jun Kitee Sawmill 2008 & Jun Varkaus Sawmill Jun Tolkkinen Sawmill End Kopparfors Sawmill End Sollenau Sawmill Jul Total

36 Global bleached chemical market pulp inventories by grade in tonnes and days of supply Source: EPIS 36

37 Kraftliner and testliner prices Source: FOEX 37

38 Pulp price development Source: FOEX 38

39 Pulp wood and saw log prices Wood prices in Finland Source: Luonnonvarakeskus 39

40 Paper for recycling prices German RCP price development. free delivered Source: Verband Deutscher Papierfabriken/Stora Enso 40

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