Extended Supply-Use Tables for Internationally Integrated Economic Accounts

Transcription

1 Extended Supply-Use Tables for Internatially Integrated Ecomic Accounts UNECE: GROUP OF EXPERTS ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Geneva, July 2016

2 LUX HUN SVK CZE IRL KOR SVN EST FIN BEL ISL DNK PRT POL CHN MEX SWE AUT ESP ITA TUR DEU FRA ISR GRC IND CAN GBR CHE CHL NLD ZAF NOR NZL USA JPN AUS RUS IDN BRA Global Value Chains have rebounded Foreign Value Added Ctent of Exports 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

3 with MNEs at the fore Gross Value Added of Foreign Affiliates (% of total gross value added, 2011) ISIC Rev 4: B to N ex K Mining, manufacturing, business services excluding finance and insurance 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

4 But. Increasing intercnectedness and role of MNEs creates increasing measurement complexities

5 ..and although the respse has been significant Double counting of trade flows Double counting of FDI flows Exporting firms Improved efforts in FATS Improved guidance Trade in Services Separate accounts with/without SPEs TiVA BMD4 TEC Reinforced by improved accounting standards 2008 SNA and BPM6 And guidance Globalisati in the NA, TF Global Producti, Compilers Guides Merchandise Trade and TIS

6 ..it remains fragmented.. Discnected sources Business registers Trade Registers Admin data SBS, NA, FATS? FDI, TiS? Merchandise, TiS? With the potential to create cfusi TEC foreign owned firms vs FATs NA exports vs Merchandise trade FATs vs FDI Tourism statistics vs n-residents expenditures TEC exports vs NA exports. Not to menti bilateral internatial asymmetries in all fields?

7 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Germany Denmark Spain Estia Finland France United Greece Hungary Italy Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Sweden..and quality (heterogeneity) remains an issue Large and foreign owned firms are more export intensive 10 to 49 employees 50 to 249 employees Domestic Foreign And more intensive.. Foreign ctrolled as % of firms % exports % s 1 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Export/Turnover intermediate s over total purchases Fitted values

8 particularly with the blurring between services and income.and the interpretability of affiliate flows As value-added doesn t always stick 60% 50% Ireland s VA to Export (TiVA) ratios with and without reallocated income flows 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% VA- Export (TiVA) Ratio Ex US affiliate GOS

9 ..& many questis remain unanswered What are the upstream spill-overs of FDI, in particular for SMEs? What is the real scale of internatial inter-linkages - Trade in Income as opposed to TiVA? Are MNEs more productive and do they create more jobs than domestic equivalents and why? With so much heterogeneity, how can we improve the quality of TiVA estimates? Are exporters more productive than n-exporters? What is the ratio of corporate taxes to value-added in MNEs compared to n MNEs?

10 ..driven by increasing complexity. Especially (but not exclusively) in affiliated transactis (MNEs) Trade in intellectual property products Transfer Pricing Operatial leasing Debt interest payments And new types of firms Factoryless producers, processors, SPEs

11 An Intercnected (Fragmented) World requires an Intercnected (Integrated) approach Extended Supply-Use Tables An approach to bring together disparate statistics under a comm coherent umbrella A mechanism to respd to policy demands related to globalisati Without increasing respse burdens Given increased momentum by the UNSC endorsement of the Recommendatis of the FOCG Internatial Trade and Ecomic Globalisati Expert Group Extended SUTs 1 st meeting in Aguascalientes: October nd meeting planned October 2015 A number of countries producing provisial results China, Costa Rica, Mexico and United States But -going support needed to maintain momentum 11

12 Expert Group Extended SU tables To create an integrated ecomic accounting framework for globalisati as part of staged approach More detailed SU tables: Imports With all products at fob and separate column for residents expenditure abroad Broken down by firm characteristics and used to inform flow tables Industries More heterogeneity: Foreign/Domestic MNE/Domestic, Export/n-export, S/M/L Exports Broken down by firm characteristic In the export column but also as an of-which of output With n-residents expenditure and re-exports separately identified With transparent adjustments for some n-observed items (e.g. own account agricultural producti) Jobs by industry row Emissis by industry row With new rows for property income flows: interest, distributed income of corporatis, reinvested earnings FDI, Investment income disbursements And, for fiscal optimisati : current taxes income, wealth etc 12

13 EG E-SUTS: Links to TEC type data: Use Table Reference Year Year' Domestic Use at Purchasers prices ISIC Code equivalent Product Industry 1 Industry 2 N- N- Total intermediate csumpti Household final csumpti NPISH GGFC GFCF Valuables Changes in Inventories Exports of which nresidents expenditure of which reexports Total Demand at Purchasers prices ISIC? Product (Industry) 1 ISIC? Product (Industry) 2 Total Imports Total Intermediate csumpti at purchasers prices Gross Value added - Basic Prices Gross Operating surplus Mixed Income Compensati of Employees Other Taxes Producti Other subidies producti Total Output at Basic Prices exports by product Primary product Other products own-account producti of: Product (Industry) 1 Product (Industry) 2 software R&D other

14 EG E-SUTS: Links to TEC type data: Use Table Reference Year Year' Domestic Use at Purchasers prices ISIC Code equivalent Product Industry 1 Industry 2 N- N- Total intermediate csumpti Household final csumpti NPISH GGFC GFCF Valuables Changes in Inventories Exports of which nresidents expenditure of which reexports Total Demand at Purchasers prices ISIC? Product (Industry) 1 ISIC? Product (Industry) 2 Total Imports Total Intermediate csumpti at purchasers prices Gross Value added - Basic Prices Gross Operating surplus Mixed Income Compensati of Employees Other Taxes Producti Other subidies producti Total Output at Basic Prices exports by product Primary product Other products own-account producti of: Product (Industry) 1 Product (Industry) 2 software R&D other

15 EG E-SUTS: Links to FATS type data: Use Table Reference Year Year' Domestic use at purchasers prices ISIC Code equivalent Please insert ISIC equivalent code below Product Industry 1 Industry 2 Foreign Domestic MNE Domestic ally owned Foreign Domestic MNE Domestic ally owned Household final csumpti NPISH GGFC GFCF Valuables Changes in Inventories Exports of which nresidents expenditure of which reexports Total of which intrafirm exports Purchasers Demand at prices ISIC? Product (Industry) 1 ISIC? Product (Industry) 2 Total Imports Total Intermediate csumpti at purchasers prices Gross Value added - Basic Prices Gross Operating surplus Mixed Income Compensati of Employees Other Taxes Producti Other subidies producti Total Output at Basic Prices exports by product Primary product Other products Product (Industry) 1 Product (Industry) 2 own-account producti of: software R&D other

16 More generally.and in an ideal world? Foreign Owned Domestically owned MNE Domestic Owned With high Export With low Export With high Export With low Export With high Export With low Export s N-s s N-s s N-s Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L S M L

17 + extensis.. Property income payments - to abraod of which Interest Distributed Income of Corporatis Reinvested Earnings FDI Investment Income Disbursements Property Income payments - to abroad of which Interest Distributed Income of Corporatis Reinvested Earnings FDI Investment Income Disbursements Current taxes income and wealth Employment Employees Hours worked Co2 emissis Industry 1 Industry 2 Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic N- N- N- N-

18 an illustrati of why this matters TiVA 2015 for China.. Foreign Value Added Ctent: ICIO Foreign Value Added Ctent: Natial I-O Processing s as % of processing exports 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

19 SME domestic value added exports via large enterprises, % industry total..and what might be possible.. SME upstream value-added and MNEs, % 50% 45% 40% ITA FRA ESP DEU NLD ESP ITA CZE POL ESP POL Chemicals Computers Motor vehicles 35% ITA DEU FRA POL NLD CZE 30% 25% 20% DEU FRA GBR HUN GBR AUT NLD AUT CZE GBR AUT HUN HUN 15% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Foreign affiliate share of domestic value-added, % industry total