EdelMetall & Rohstoff Messe

Transcription

1 EdelMetall & Rohstoff Messe Munich, Germany November 7, 2008 Presented by John Kaiser Evaluation & Analysis of Resource Juniors Bewertung und Analyse von Junior- Resourcenunternehmen

2 Kaiser Services! Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online Membership US $250 per quarter or $800 per year! One time one month KBFO Trial at $100! Kaiser Blog Membership Free

3 Presentation Outline! Macro Context for the Resource Sector! Analysis and Evaluation of Resource Juniors! Sector Strategies

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6 The Wall of Worry! Securitized Mortgage Paper! Subprime Defaults! Asset Backed Commercial Paper! Liquidity Crunch! Foreclosure! Real Estate Collapse! Reverse Wealth Effect! Bankruptcy! Globalization! OECD Deindustrialization! Energy Costs & Peak Oil! Derivative Pyramid Collapse! Collapsing US Dollar! Stock Market Collapse! Minneapolis Bridge Collapse! Iraqi Quagmire! Pakistan and Iran! Osama bin Laden! Implosion of China! Resurgence of Russia! Creationism! Pandemic! Global Warming! Food Price Inflation! Satellite Orbit Demolition! Aging Boomer Bubble! Health Cost Inflation! Depression! Haldron Collider Black Hole! Asteroid Collision To worry or not to worry?

7 Hank, are you sure these things bounce? Fannie Mae NASDAQ DJIA S&P 500

8 Financial Services Bubble IMF estimates losses from non-government debt will reach $1 trillion! (adjusted for splits and rollbacks) Countrywide Bear Stearns

9 Real Estate Bubble Collapse

10 The New Problem: Funding the Boomer Retirement! Social Security! Health Care! Longevity! Quality of Life

11 The China Price! Cheap Labor urbanization of rural China and the dismantlement of state run enterprises! No Health & Safety for Workers! No environmental emission controls! No Unions to secure medical or pension benefits! US Dollar Peg: the devil s bargain of maintaining an undervalued yuan by bankrolling the US trade deficit through the accumulation of US treasury debt! Piracy and Counterfeiting! FDI: foreign direct investment and technology transfer Made in China and Packed with Pride in America

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16 Why do we think these costs will never go down but metal prices will?! Higher Capital Costs! Higher Energy Costs! Personnel Shortages! Water & Power Shortages! Labor Disruptions! Grade Flexing Errors! Permitting Delays! NGO Opposition! Government Revenue Grab! Commodity Price Uncertainty

17 A Matter of Perspective Is your standard of living shrinking or growing? Is your footprint growing or shrinking? 1 Billion OECD 3 Billion BRIC

18 Green Economy & Infrastructure Renewal Boom! Watch footprint consciousness driven by climate change and the environmental impact of the Rise of Asia change the way people consume, helped along by the end of consumer debt.! Watch for a capital spending boom based on transformative infrastructure renewal in the US that keeps Americans busy while China transitions to a self-sustaining economy! Watch the growing Silicon Valley venture capital boom in green technology! Watch for manufacturing to return to the OECD in a highly automated form! Watch raw material and energy prices never go back to the bear market levels of 5 years ago! Watch for a US foreign policy that reflects the end of American hegemony Watch the November Elections! ASCE estimates $1.6 trillion needed over next 5 years just for infrastructure maintenance!

19 EurAsia UpForGrabs AustralAsia NoSoMerica

20 Will a minefield of satellite debris eventually poke out America s s Eyes in the Sky?

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27 New GeoPolitical Realities for the 21 st Century! Beware the fragmentation of commodity supply channels as strategic value backed by sovereign wealth becomes an important part of acquisition and production decisions.! Beware China s ability to simultaneously bankroll infrastructure in a third world country and secure mine development rights.! Beware the destruction of the American eyes in the sky and the enfeeblement of US military technology.! Beware a future where the US dollar no longer serves as the benchmark for discovering the price of everything, a future where it becomes impossible to monetarily cost project economics.

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30 Post-Financing Boom Hazards! Bankruptcy, Suspension, Delisting projects under construction not fully funded are particularly vulnerable.! Corporate Reorganizations (RollBacks) large 10:1 or more stock consolidations followed by post-rollback 80-90% further price declines.! Massive Equity Dilution at rock bottom hail mary financings or vulture capitalism! Convertible Debenture Financing large financings with the asset as security and a high conversion price investors are seeking high interest yield with twofold expectation of a brief bear market followed by higher stock prices that justify conversion into equity, or an extended bear market that causes the junior to default and allows the debenture holders to acquire the asset through massive dilution of existing equity holders by conversion of debt into paper at rock bottom.! Major Shareholder Advances management at mercy of parent who has no incentive to support stock price boosting initiatives, eventually converts debt into paper at cheap prices or privatizes the company.! Friendly Paper Takeover Bids by stronger juniors or intermediates desire by management to be relieved of financing burden in bear market and secure liquidity.! Hostile Paper Takeover Bids by stronger juniors seeking cash of weaker junior! Cash Vanishing Acts - bad acquisitions, normal course issuer bids, investments in other juniors, merger with private companies, foolish farm-ins, high paid management paralysis.

31 The Optimistic Outlook! Indiscriminate and widespread liquidation by hedge funds in response to redemption notices.! Indiscriminate tax loss selling by individual investors.! Existing resource sector speculators maintain their resource sector exposure by selling losers and rotating the capital into other cheap juniors.! New institutional and retail money comes to take advantage of an extraordinary bottom-fishing window.! The resulting record TSXV volume will be a catharsis that sets the stage for an unrestrained resource sector bull market with everybody on board.! Wall Street decides that the solution to all problems is to rebuild infrastructure and invest in new commodity supply, setting the stage for the next valuation bubble.

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33 Profit Making Exit Strategies! Cash Takeover by Major Absolute Liquidity! Paper Takeover by Intermediate Absolute Liquidity! Merger among Equals Partial Liquidity! Equity Stake Purchase by Major Partial Liquidity! Repricing through graduation to next exploration stage Minor Liquidity! Repricing through exploration driven expansion of dream target value Minor Liquidity! Repricing through upwards adjustment of consensus outllook for long term metal prices Minor Liquidity! Repricing through bigger market profile Minor Liquidity! Repricing through adjustment to comparables Minor Liquidity

34 The Elements of Bottom-Fish Research! Chart: does the stock chart have a bottoming pattern?! People: is the management team full-fledged and does it have a track record of success?! Structure: do insiders own enough paper to be motivated to turn the junior into a success?! Capital: does the company have enough money to achieve its goals, especially if we face a prolonged slump?! Story: does the company have a project either with intriguing discovery potential, or ounces/pounds in the ground that deserve development?! Speculative Value: using the rational speculation model, does the story offer good speculative value?

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43 Cash Vanishing Acts! Spending it rapidly in hope of a homerun! Down the road acquisition related balloon payments coming due! Farming into other juniors projects! Spending it to facilitate service sector kickbacks! Spending it because it is flowthrough money! Lending it to related juniors! Investing it in other juniors paper! Advancing it into a planned acquisition black hole! Buying cash flow! Purchasing a debt laden asset! Diluting the capital structure through cheap financings to insiders! Amalgamating with a cash poor junior! Conserving the cash for overhead and new project investigation costs! Normal Course Issuer Bid

44 Two Basic Story Types in the Resource Sector Commodity Speculation Ounces and Pounds in the Ground Development Focused DCF & Peer Group Comparison Discovery Speculation No Resource Estimate Exploration Focused Rational Speculation Model

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50 Rational Speculation Model A formal system for valuing a spec stock Three Steps! Outcome Analysis what is the dream target and the key assumptions behind it?! Probability Analysis where in the exploration cycle is the project and what is it worth now?! Risk-Reward Analysis is it a good, fair, or poor bet?

51 Outcome Analysis Step 1 What is a deposit worth?! In situ gross metal value (GMV) the rock value of all recoverable metals x tonnage! Recoverable gross metal value the rock value adjusted for recoveries using conventional metallurgical processes! Total Cash Flow Value - usually a lot less than the gross value after deducting operating costs! Real Value - the net present value using the discounted cash flow model Fruta del Norte: 58,900, g/t (0.23 oz per tonne) Rock Value at $760/oz gold: $175/t In situ GMV: 58,900,000 x $175 = $10.3 billion

52 Outcome Analysis Step 1 What is an orebody worth? m Discounted Cash Flow Model Annual Cash Flow (1 + Discount Rate) n n=1 Less Capital Cost n = year of cash m = mine life (years of mining)

53 Outcome Analysis Step 1 What are the key inputs for mining cash flow? Revenue Inputs Tonnage Grade Recovery Commodity Price Production Rate Cost Inputs Operating Cost Taxes Capital Cost Annual Gross Revenue less Operating Costs = Operating Profit less Taxes = After Tax Cash Flow

54 Outcome Analysis Step 1 Quickie Net Present Value Calculation Simplified discounted cash flow model Gross Revenue (Annual for 10 yr Mine) less Operating Costs Operating Profit less Taxes = After Tax Cash Flow (ATCF) Present Value = ATCF times Discount Rate Multiplier (Multiplier: 4 for 20%, 6 for 10%, or 8 for 5% discount rate) Net Present Value = Present Value less Capital Cost

55 Outcome Analysis Step 1 Use reasonable input guesses to narrow the dream target to one of the following: aka Ultimate Project Value (UPV)!$100 million!$500 million!$2 billion Bottomline Question: what game applies to your play?

56 Outcome Analysis Step 1 The footprint: is there room for your dream target?! do you have targets or just the right geology?! what all defines your target: surface geology, geochemical anomaly, geophysical anomaly, drill defined mineralized zones, or structural geology?! what are the tonnage implications of your targets?! what are the grade implications?

57 What would the dream target look like? Orebody Arithmetic! Figure out geometry of target or zone simplify into rectangular blocks! Calculate rock volume for each zone (in metres): Volume of rock = length x width x thickness! Calculate tonnage = volume x specific gravity (2.6 for ordinary rock, 4.5 for massive sulphides)! Assign grade for recoverable metals (g/t or %)! Calculate rock value = metal price x grade! Deposit s gross value = tonnage x rock value Tonnage Potential: Length x Width x Depth x Specific Gravity

58 Outcome Analysis Step 1 Excel Spreadsheet Rock Value Calculator Rock Value, also known, as Gross Metal Value (GMV) per tonne, sometimes as in situ, tells you the value of pounds or ounces in the ground before any extraction costs. This is the first calculation you should do with either a drill intersection grade or a resource estimate. Avoid Equivalent Grades!

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61 Outcome Analysis Step 1 Outcome Analysis Questions! What kind of deposit style is it?! Can you name a deposit similar to your target?! What is the analogue worth?! What is the physical footprint of your target?! How many tonnes does that represent?! What grade are you looking for?! Are there metallurgical issues that affect recoveries or costs?! What are your long term metal price assumptions?! What is the rock value at these grades and prices?! What would the in situ value be?! Where is the project located?! Are there infrastructure issues such as transportation, water supply and power?! What is such a deposit worth in DCF and comparable market valuation terms?

62 Outcome Analysis Step 1 More Outcome Analysis Questions! Who operates the project, for how long, and what is their agenda if it is not you?! When are you vested and what ownership related deadlines apply?! How are you funding the exploration cycle?! What is the timeline for your exploration cycle?! Are there any title issues?! Are there any geopolitical risk issues?! Are there any local or aboriginal issues?! Are there environmental risk issues?! Are there any specific permitting obstacles?! What is being done about any of these obstacles? Increase the DCF discount rate to adjust the dream target value downwards for extra risks!

63 Probability Analysis Step 2 Probability Analysis Questions! What is your fully diluted?! What is your stock price?! What exploration stage is it at?! What are the intrinsic odds of delivering the dream target as a mine?! What is your net project interest?! What does the market say your play is worth right now (the Implied Project Value )? Calculate Play s IPV: FD x Price / net interest

64 Probability Analysis Step 2 How is the market pricing a project? Aurelian s s 100% owned 14 million oz Fruta del Norte Project in Ecuador Calculating Implied Project Value = Fully Diluted Shares X Market Price Net Project Interest = ( 152,051,000 x $5.20)/1.0 = $843,000,000

65 Probability Analysis Step 2 What if Ecuador expropriates 50% of Fruta del Norte? (50% net) Calculating Implied Project Value = Fully Diluted Shares X Market Price Net Project Interest = ( 162,051,000 x $5.20)/0.5 = $1,685,000,000

66 Probability Analysis Step 2 How do we get to a mine? Stage Exploration Cycle Stage Objective Time Required 0 Grassroots Conceptual, land acquisition 1 year 1 Target Generation & Drilling Filtering for drill targets 1-2 years 2 Discovery Delineation Defining the limits of a discovery - tonnage & grade 1-2 years 3 Infill Drilling Producing a mineral resource estimate & scoping study 1-2 years 4 Bulk Sample & Metallurgy Evaluating recoveries and optimal processing method 1 year 5 Prefeasibility Produce a mineable reserve, establish a mining plan and associated costs 1-2 years 6 Feasibility & Permitting Securing regulatory approval and a production decision 1-3 years 7 Construction Building the mine 1-3 years 8 Production Mining cash flow years

67 Probability Analysis Step 2 What are the intrinsic odds of becoming an economic mine at each stage of the exploration cycle? The Probability Ladder

68 Risk-Reward Analysis Step 3 Step 3 Risk-Reward Reward Analysis! Determine appropriate dream target! Calculate Implied Project Value! Assign exploration stage! Plot onto IPV Chart! See which probability ladder applies! Review the target outcome from step 1! Assess speculative value! Note information flow timeline

69 Risk-Reward Analysis Step 3 Reviewing a Basic Gambling Concept The probability of an anticipated outcome should match the payout delivered when the outcome is achieved.! Fair Bet 10:1 odds, pays 10:1! Poor Bet 10:1 odds, pays 5:1! Good Bet 5:1 odds, pays 10:1

70 Risk-Reward Analysis Step 3 Applying basic gambling logic to exploration projects Find the fair speculative value corresponding to the target outcome and the exploration stage

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72 Risk-Reward Analysis Step 3 When key exploration results are released the market asks 2 questions:! What do the results do to the scale and value of the dream target?! Is the play ready to move to the next exploration cycle stage and its lower failure odds?

73 Peregrine Diamonds (PGD-T) the next Dia Met?

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80 Sector Priorities! Gold greatest potential for substantial move in near term, if of a quantum nature, will stimulate exploration boom! Silver potential to track an upward gold move! Platinum Group is South Africa destabilizing?! Copper supply expectations hinge on development in geopolitically unstable regions! Uranium- watch Obama administration s attitude! Specialty Metals strategic shortages hamper commercialization of new technology! Molybdenum key incremental input for infrastructure! Fertilizer Minerals starvation is not a global option! Nickel needs $10 lid to limit laterite supply! Zinc need to ignore price for next two years

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104 Reasons for Good Spec Value (Why do they appear undervalued?)! Truth machine has destroyed the dream! Title problem! Political risk problem! Permitting problem! Infrastructure problem! Metallurgical problem! Model credibility problem! Management credibility problem! Measurement problem! Partner problems! Cyclical market low or downtrend for target metals! Funding problem! News flow timing dead zone! Market awareness problem! Late life cycle stock with rollback risk! General bear market - extreme pessimism

105 Thank You