The BGSA Supply Chain Index

Transcription

1 The BGSA Supply Chain Index October 2017 Copyright 2017 by BG Strategic Advisors No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the permission of BG Strategic Advisors.

2 BG Strategic Advisors The BGSA Supply Chain Index The BGSA Supply Chain Index tracks nine segments within our core coverage area of supply chain and logistics: Logistics Global Parcel / Logistics Truckload Less Than Truckload Railroads / Rail Services Supply Chain Technology and Software Technology Distribution Healthcare Distribution Energy Transportation and Logistics The following pages highlight current public valuation trends throughout each of these industry segments, including EV / LTM EBITDA and one year stock performance, among others Introduction to BG Strategic Advisors ( BGSA ) BGSA is the leader in supply chain investment banking with a unique set of unmatched capabilities Due to our unique approach to strategy-led investment banking, BGSA has become the leading advisor on premium sell-side deals, the first call for buyside acquisition strategy and execution, and a true thought leader with over 30 completed transactions in the supply chain sector BGSA completed over 50 transactions within supply chain, logistics, and transportation Recent Performance and Key Takeaways The BGSA Supply Chain Index as a whole is currently trading at an average EV / EBITDA multiple of 11.8x, significantly higher than11.0x in Aug - Supply Chain Technology and Logistics are currently outperforming the broader index, trading at 17.4x and 14.9x, respectively The BGSA Supply Chain Index ended the month of Sept up by 5.7%, while the S&P 500 was up by 1.7% Over the last 12 months, the BGSA Supply Chain Index was up 21.3%, while the S&P 500 was up 16.6% - The highest performing segments were LTL, up 54.; Truckload, up by 37.; Logistics, up 31.3%; and Railroads / Rail Services, up 29.1% - The weakest performing segment was Healthcare Distribution, down 5.5% The transportation and logistics M&A market maintained its high activity level during the month of September - On Sept 5, Daseke announced a merger with R&R Trucking - On Sept 5, The Carlyle Group acquired United Road Services from Charlesbank Capital Partners - On Sept 7, Pitney Bowes announced it is acquiring Newgistics for $475 million - On Sept 13, Trimble announced the acquisition of 10-4 Systems - On Oct 2, NFI announced the acquisition of California Cartage - On Oct 3, Wal-Mart Stores announced that it has acquired Parcel, Inc. 2

3 The BGSA Supply Chain Index EV / LTM EBITDA EV / LTM EBITDA 20.0x 18.0x 17.4x 16.0x 14.0x 14.9x The BGSA Index Average: 11.8x 12.0x 11.7x 11.5x 11.4x 10.6x 10.4x 10.0x 9.6x 8.6x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x Supply Chain Technology and Software Logistics Global Parcel / Logistics Energy Transportation and Logistics Truckload Railroads / Rail Services Healthcare Distribution Technology Distribution Less Than Truckload 3

4 The BGSA Supply Chain Index Stock Performance One Year Stock Performance One Month Stock Performance (5.) (10.) BGSA Index S&P % 16.6% % 1.7% (1.) (2.) Sep 1 Sep 5 Sep 9 Sep 13 Sep 17 Sep 21 Sep 25 Sep 29 BGSA Index S&P 500 4

5 One Year Stock Performance by Segment Logistics Global Parcel / Logistics Truckload 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% (5%) (1) 31.3% 25% 2 15% 1 5% (5%) 21.9% % 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% (5%) (1) Less-Than-Truckload Railroads / Rail Services Supply Chain Technology & Software (1) % 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% (5%) (1) 29.1% 5.8% 8% 6% 4% 2% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) (1) Technology Distribution Healthcare Distribution Energy Transportation & Logistics 25% 21.3% 1 (5.5%) 0.5% 15% 2 5% 1 15% 1 5% (5%) (1) 5% (5%) (5%) (15%) (1) (1) (2) (15%) 5

6 Logistics Agility $ 2.94 $ 4,085.6 $ $ 4,551.2 $ 4,248.6 $ $ % 6.1% 1.1x 12.4x 17.7x 1.0x 15.9x CH Robinson , , , , % 5.6% 0.8x 13.9x 15.2x 1.3x 22.7x DSV , , , , % 1.4x 19.7x 23.1x 1.3x 25.1x Echo Global Logistics , % 0.4% 0.4x 22.9x NM 5.9x 23.0x Expeditors International ,819.0 (1,114.9) 9, , % 10.2% 1.5x 13.8x 14.8x (1.6x) 25.0x Forward Air , , , % 1.7x 12.1x 16.4x 0.1x 23.6x Hub Group , , , % 2.6% 0.4x 10.1x 15.1x 0.1x 24.3x Kuehne + Nagel ,120.6 (346.5) 21, , , % 5.1% 1.2x 19.5x 24.0x (0.3x) 27.2x Landstar System ,180.0 (120.1) 4, , % x 14.9x 17.4x (0.4x) 26.0x Panalpina ,477.1 (257.1) 3, , % 1.7% 0.6x 27.2x 35.1x (2.2x) 32.8x Ryder System , , , , , % 1.4x 5.4x 17.1x 2.9x 17.9x Universal Truckload , % 2.8% 0.7x 11.3x 25.9x 3.2x 20.2x XPO Logistics , , , , , % 3.8% 0.9x 10.9x 23.5x 3.9x 30.2x Min $ $ (1,114.9) $ $ 1,028.8 $ 31.7 $ % 0.4% 0.4x 5.4x 14.8x (2.2x) 15.9x Mean $ 6,631.4 $ $ 7,522.7 $ 7,051.6 $ $ % 5.4% 1.0x 14.9x 20.4x 1.2x 24.2x Median $ 4,180.0 $ $ 4,551.2 $ 5,460.7 $ $ % 1.1x 13.8x 17.6x 1.0x 24.3x Max $ 22,120.6 $ 5,329.5 $ 21,784.2 $ 17,945.8 $ 1,815.6 $ % 1.7x 27.2x 35.1x 5.9x 32.8x 6

7 Global Parcel / Logistics Deutsche Post $ $ 53,825.5 $ 4,441.5 $ 58,800.1 $ 67,863.1 $ 5,137.5 $ 3, % 5.3% 0.9x 11.4x 16.2x 0.9x 15.7x FedEx , , , , , , % 8.6% 1.2x 8.7x 13.8x 1.4x 17.1x United Parcel Service , , , , , , % 8.9% 1.9x 15.0x 20.9x 1.7x 19.5x Min $ 53,825.5 $ 4,441.5 $ 58,800.1 $ 60,953.0 $ 5,137.5 $ 3, % 5.3% 0.9x 8.7x 13.8x 0.9x 15.7x Mean $ 72,738.5 $ 9,860.8 $ 82,787.0 $ 63,913.4 $ 7,078.8 $ 4, % 7.6% 1.3x 11.7x 17.0x 1.3x 17.4x Median $ 60,488.8 $ 11,653.0 $ 72,141.8 $ 62,924.0 $ 7,847.0 $ 5, % 8.6% 1.2x 11.4x 16.2x 1.4x 17.1x Max $ 103,901.2 $ 13,488.0 $ 117,419.2 $ 67,863.1 $ 8,252.0 $ 5, % 8.9% 1.9x 15.0x 20.9x 1.7x 19.5x 7

8 Truckload Celadon Group $ 6.75 $ $ $ $ 1,054.6 $ 83.5 $ % 0.8% 0.5x 6.7x NM 4.5x NM Covenant Transportation % 3.2% 1.1x 7.4x 32.7x 1.9x 35.5x Daseke $ $ $ $ $ $ 74.5 $ % x 12.7x NM 4.1x NM Heartland Express ,089.2 (171.3) 1, % x 11.6x 29.2x (1.0x) 32.4x JB Hunt $ $ 12,156.1 $ $ 13,092.0 $ 6,767.8 $ 1,058.4 $ % 10.2% 1.9x 12.4x 19.0x 0.9x 27.4x Knight-Swift ,378.6 (88.7) 7, , % 11.3% 6.5x 30.0x NM (0.4x) 29.5x Marten Transport $ $ 1,120.2 $ (10.1) $ 1,110.2 $ $ $ % 7.1% 1.6x 8.3x 22.9x (0.1x) 31.1x P.A.M. Transportation % 0.7x 5.4x 22.5x 2.5x 24.4x Werner Enterprises $ $ 2,641.6 $ 52.4 $ 2,694.0 $ 2,048.2 $ $ % 5.9% 1.3x 8.1x 22.4x 0.2x 27.0x Min $ $ (171.3) $ $ $ 52.4 $ % 0.8% 0.5x 5.4x 19.0x (1.0x) 24.4x Mean $ 2,981.5 $ $ 3,180.1 $ 1,557.6 $ $ % x 11.4x 24.8x 1.4x 29.6x Median $ 1,120.2 $ $ 1,110.2 $ $ $ % 5.9% 1.4x 8.3x 22.7x 0.9x 29.5x Max $ 12,156.1 $ $ 13,092.0 $ 6,767.8 $ 1,058.4 $ % x 30.0x 32.7x 4.5x 35.5x 8

9 Less-Than-Truckload ArcBest Corporation $ $ $ $ $ 2,773.6 $ $ % 1.7% 0.3x 6.5x 20.1x 0.7x 22.5x Old Dominion Freight Line , , , % 2.9x 12.7x 17.6x 0.1x 25.1x Roadrunner Transportation , % x 7.6x 12.8x 4.0x 25.1x Saia , , , % 1.3x 10.3x 19.9x 0.9x 26.0x TFI International , , , , % 5.7% 1.1x 9.7x 18.5x 3.4x 15.5x YRC Worldwide , , % 2.1% 0.3x 4.9x 12.5x 3.0x 9.4x Min $ $ 61.2 $ $ 1,291.9 $ $ % 1.7% 0.3x 4.9x 12.5x 0.1x 9.4x Mean $ 2,441.8 $ $ 2,913.5 $ 2,906.1 $ $ % x 8.6x 16.9x 2.0x 20.6x Median $ 1,219.4 $ $ 1,481.3 $ 2,948.0 $ $ % 4.4% 0.7x 8.6x 18.0x 2.0x 23.8x Max $ 9,072.0 $ 1,296.0 $ 9,133.1 $ 4,800.8 $ $ % 2.9x 12.7x 20.1x 4.0x 26.0x 9

10 Railroads / Rail Services American Railcar $ $ $ $ 1,190.4 $ $ $ % 18.2% 2.2x 7.8x 12.2x 3.0x 17.0x Canadian National Railway , , , , , , % 43.9% 7.2x 13.3x 16.4x 1.5x 19.5x Canadian Pacific Railway , , , , , , % 42.3% 6.3x 12.2x 14.8x 2.5x 17.4x CSX , , , , , , % 5.2x 11.6x 15.5x 2.1x 22.6x Genesee & Wyoming , , , , % 18.7% 3.5x 11.8x 18.8x 3.8x 22.3x Kansas City Southern , , , , , % x 12.0x 16.4x 2.1x 19.6x Norfolk Southern , , , , , , % 31.7% 4.7x 11.1x 14.7x 2.2x 20.2x The Greenbrier Companies , , , % 0.7x 4.6x 5.8x 0.2x 15.8x Union Pacific , , , , , , % 37.3% 5.2x 10.9x 13.9x 1.5x 19.2x Min $ $ 67.2 $ 1,190.4 $ $ $ % 0.7x 4.6x 5.8x 0.2x 15.8x Mean $ 31,697.5 $ 6,033.1 $ 37,882.7 $ 7,167.7 $ 3,267.5 $ 2, % 30.4% 4.5x 10.6x 14.3x 2.1x 19.3x Median $ 24,495.2 $ 6,342.5 $ 31,090.2 $ 4,952.9 $ 2,546.1 $ 2, % 5.2x 11.6x 14.8x 2.1x 19.5x Max $ 92,820.6 $ 14,384.0 $ 107,204.6 $ 20,724.0 $ 9,800.0 $ 7, % 43.9% 7.2x 13.3x 18.8x 3.8x 22.6x 10

11 Supply Chain Technology and Software Absolute Software $ 6.20 $ $ (32.9) $ $ 91.2 $ 12.3 $ % 0.9% 2.3x 17.2x NM (2.7x) NM American Software (84.2) % 9.3% 2.4x 20.5x 25.7x (6.8x) 32.5x CACI International , , , , % 6.8% 1.1x 12.5x 15.4x 3.2x 20.5x Descartes Systems ,089.0 (47.5) 2, % 17.6% 9.4x 28.1x NM (0.7x) 24.1x Exlservice Holdings ,967.8 (191.8) 1, % 2.5x 17.6x 27.7x (1.9x) 21.7x Manhattan Associates ,865.3 (86.6) 2, % 32.3% 4.7x 13.7x 14.4x (0.4x) 21.7x PFSweb % 0.2% 0.7x 11.9x NM 2.1x NM Min $ $ (191.8) $ $ 91.2 $ 12.3 $ % 0.2% 0.7x 11.9x 14.4x (6.8x) 20.5x Mean $ 1,581.7 $ $ 1,690.2 $ $ $ % 10.9% 3.3x 17.4x 20.8x (1.0x) 24.1x Median $ 1,967.8 $ (47.5) $ 1,776.2 $ $ 72.6 $ % 8.9% 2.4x 17.2x 20.5x (0.7x) 21.7x Max $ 3,408.7 $ 1,169.1 $ 4,578.0 $ 4,354.6 $ $ % 32.3% 9.4x 28.1x 27.7x 3.2x 32.5x 11

12 Technology Distribution Arrow Electronics $ $ 7,097.1 $ 2,649.2 $ 9,790.4 $ 24,603.9 $ 1,088.8 $ % 3.8% 0.4x 9.0x 10.5x 2.4x 10.3x Avnet , , , % 3.4% 0.3x 7.4x 9.1x 0.9x 12.1x CDW Corporation , , , , , % 5.8% 1.0x 12.8x 16.7x 3.4x 16.4x ScanSource , , , % 2.6% 0.3x 9.7x 12.3x 0.3x 14.5x SYNNEX , , , % 0.4x 9.3x 12.0x 1.3x 13.4x Tech Data , , , , % 1.3% 0.2x 9.3x 11.5x 2.5x 9.2x Min $ 1,110.1 $ 41.2 $ 1,151.4 $ 3,568.2 $ $ % 1.3% 0.2x 7.4x 9.1x 0.3x 9.2x Mean $ 5,277.3 $ 1,517.6 $ 6,802.2 $ 17,702.8 $ $ % 3.3% 0.4x 9.6x 12.0x 1.8x 12.6x Median $ 4,923.1 $ 1,020.0 $ 5,656.5 $ 16,530.3 $ $ % 3.3% 0.3x 9.3x 11.7x 1.9x 12.7x Max $ 10,220.7 $ 3,713.7 $ 13,934.4 $ 30,464.5 $ 1,091.9 $ % 5.8% 1.0x 12.8x 16.7x 3.4x 16.4x 12

13 Healthcare Distribution AmerisourceBergen Corporation $ $ 18,131.5 $ 2,474.4 $ 20,605.9 $ 151,584.4 $ 2,426.0 $ 2, % 1.3% 0.1x 8.5x 10.2x 1.0x 14.0x Cardinal Health, Inc , , , , , , % 1.8% 0.2x 8.1x 10.5x 1.2x 13.5x Henry Schein, Inc , , , , , % x 14.8x 17.9x 1.3x 21.6x McKesson Corporation , , , , , , % 0.2x 10.0x 12.9x 1.4x 12.4x Owens & Minor Inc , , , % x 10.0x 12.1x 2.3x 13.7x Patterson Companies, Inc , , , , % 5.7% 0.8x 11.7x 14.9x 2.7x 16.5x PharMerica Corporation , , % 0.6x 10.0x 19.0x 3.2x 14.1x Min $ $ $ 1,331.2 $ 2,205.8 $ $ % 1.3% 0.1x 8.1x 10.2x 1.0x 12.4x Mean $ 12,972.0 $ 2,142.4 $ 15,470.6 $ 72,932.7 $ 1,603.0 $ 1, % 3.2% 0.5x 10.4x 13.9x 1.9x 15.1x Median $ 12,963.6 $ 1,327.7 $ 15,046.7 $ 11,968.5 $ 1,019.7 $ % x 10.0x 12.9x 1.4x 14.0x Max $ 32,298.1 $ 5,639.0 $ 39,537.1 $ 199,851.0 $ 3,943.0 $ 3, % x 14.8x 19.0x 3.2x 21.6x 13

14 Energy Transportation and Logistics Civeo Corporation $ 2.85 $ $ $ $ $ 72.6 $ (56.3) 19.2% (14.9%) 1.8x 9.2x NM 4.0x NM Clean Harbors , , , , % 4.4% 1.6x 10.9x 35.8x 3.1x NM World Fuel , , , % 0.6% 0.1x 10.9x 15.4x 1.9x 13.4x Gibson Energy , , , % 0.4% 0.7x 14.3x NM 3.9x NM Mullen Group , , % 9.2% 2.1x 12.9x 23.1x 2.4x 24.2x Trimac Transportation , , % 13.8% 1.8x 11.1x 12.8x 0.6x 16.2x Min $ $ 85.8 $ $ $ 72.6 $ (56.3) 0.8% (14.9%) 0.1x 9.2x 12.8x 0.6x 13.4x Mean $ 1,826.1 $ $ 2,377.4 $ 6,788.6 $ $ % 2.3% 1.3x 11.5x 21.8x 2.6x 18.0x Median $ 1,801.4 $ $ 2,285.8 $ 1,902.0 $ $ % 2.5% 1.7x 11.0x 19.2x 2.8x 16.2x Max $ 3,240.6 $ 1,287.9 $ 4,528.6 $ 31,472.3 $ $ % 13.8% 2.1x 14.3x 35.8x 4.0x 24.2x 14

15 BGSA Supply Chain Conference BG Strategic Advisors will hold its 12th annual conference, BGSA Supply Chain 2018, on January 24-26, 2018 at The Breakers Hotel in Palm Beach, Florida For more information please click here or Shai Greenwald at 15