The BGSA Supply Chain Index

Transcription

1 The BGSA Supply Chain Index December 2018 Copyright 2018 by BG Strategic Advisors No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the permission of BG Strategic Advisors.

2 BG Strategic Advisors The BGSA Supply Chain Index The BGSA Supply Chain Index tracks nine segments within our core coverage area of supply chain and logistics: Logistics Global Parcel / Logistics Truckload Less Than Truckload Railroads / Rail Services Supply Chain Technology and Software Technology Distribution Healthcare Distribution Energy Transportation and Logistics The following pages highlight current public valuation trends throughout each of these industry segments, including EV / LTM EBITDA and one year stock performance, among others Introduction to BG Strategic Advisors ( BGSA ) BGSA is the leader in supply chain investment banking with a unique set of unmatched capabilities Due to our unique approach to strategy-led investment banking, BGSA has become the leading advisor on premium sell-side deals, the first call for buyside acquisition strategy and execution, and a true thought leader with over 30 completed transactions in the supply chain sector BGSA completed over 50 transactions within supply chain, logistics, and transportation Recent Performance and Key Takeaways The BGSA Supply Chain Index as a whole is currently trading at an average EV / EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, slightly down from 10.9x in October - Supply Chain Technology, Logistics and Railroads are currently outperforming the broader index, trading at 19.6x, 12.2x and 11.4x, respectively The BGSA Supply Chain Index ended the month of November up 2.4%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.7% - The decline in oil price had an impact on the Energy Logistics segment that ended the month of November down 6.3% Over the last 12 months, the BGSA Supply Chain Index was up 3.9%, while the S&P 500 was up 4. - The highest performing segments were Railroad. Up 19.8%; and Supply Chain Technology, up 15.6% On Nov 2, Masterpiece International, a portfolio company of Magnate Capital Partners, acquired Domek Logistics On Nov 5, Hub Group entered into an agreement to acquire CaseStack for approximately $260 million On Nov 8, Turvo announced today it has closed $60 million in Series B funding led by Mubadala Ventures On Nov 9, Manitoulin Global Forwarding acquired N.J. International On Nov 13, Inmar acquired Innovative Return Concepts On Nov 15, Kuehne + Nagel announces the acquisition of Quick International Courier 2

3 The BGSA Supply Chain Index EV / LTM EBITDA 25.0x EV / LTM EBITDA 20.0x 19.6x The BGSA Index Average: 10.8x 15.0x 12.2x 11.4x 10.0x 10.3x 10.2x 10.1x 8.7x 7.5x 7.0x 5.0x 0.0x Supply Chain Technology and Software Logistics Railroads / Rail Services Global Parcel / Logistics Healthcare Distribution Energy Transportation and Logistics Technology Distribution Truckload Less Than Truckload 3

4 The BGSA Supply Chain Index Stock Performance One Year Stock Performance (2.) (4.) 3.9% (6.) BGSA Index S&P 500 One Month Stock Performance % (1.) 0.7% (2.) (3.) (4.) (5.) Nov 1 Nov 5 Nov 9 Nov 13 Nov 17 Nov 21 Nov 25 Nov 29 BGSA Index S&P 500 4

5 One Year Stock Performance by Segment Logistics Global Parcel / Logistics Truckload 1 (2.6%) 1 (10.3%) (10.) (1) 1 Less-Than-Truckload (2) Railroads / Rail Services (1) Supply Chain Technology & Software % 15.6% (1) Technology Distribution Healthcare Distribution Energy Transportation & Logistics 4. 8% 6% 4% 2% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) (12%) (14%) (1) (4.4%) (1) 5

6 Logistics Agility $ 2.66 $ 3,853.4 $ $ 4,467.7 $ 5,062.3 $ $ % x 10.0x 13.6x 1.0x 14.9x CH Robinson , , , , % 5.3% 0.8x 14.5x 15.8x 1.1x 19.1x DSV , , , % 1.2x 16.1x 17.7x 1.0x 21.9x Echo Global Logistics , % 2.1% 0.4x 11.5x 17.3x 2.0x 14.1x Expeditors International ,132.4 (990.6) 12, , % 9.9% 1.6x 14.7x 15.7x (1.2x) 22.9x Forward Air , , , % x 12.3x 16.6x 0.1x 20.0x Hub Group , , , % x 7.4x 11.8x 0.2x 14.1x Kuehne + Nagel ,826.6 (218.2) 16, , , , % 4.8% 0.8x 13.4x 16.4x (0.2x) 20.8x Landstar System ,484.8 (100.6) 4, , x 12.3x 13.9x (0.3x) 17.2x Panalpina , , , % 1.9% 0.6x 24.0x 29.7x 0.9x 29.4x Ryder System , , , , , % 7.3% 1.1x 4.9x 15.6x 3.3x 9.2x Universal Truckload , % 4.6% 0.7x 8.4x 15.4x 2.7x 10.9x XPO Logistics , , , , , % x 9.4x 18.0x 2.6x 18.8x Min $ $ (990.6) $ $ 1,220.9 $ 76.6 $ % 1.9% 0.3x 4.9x 11.8x (1.2x) 9.2x Mean $ 6,578.3 $ $ 7,526.4 $ 8,269.9 $ $ % 0.9x 12.2x 16.7x 1.0x 18.0x Median $ 3,853.4 $ $ 4,467.7 $ 6,054.5 $ $ % 0.8x 12.3x 15.8x 1.0x 18.8x Max $ 16,826.6 $ 6,222.4 $ 16,619.5 $ 20,930.2 $ 1,888.9 $ 1, % 9.9% 1.6x 24.0x 29.7x 3.3x 29.4x 6

7 Global Parcel / Logistics Deutsche Post $ $ 39,253.4 $ 15,959.1 $ 55,083.4 $ 71,361.7 $ 5,298.0 $ 3, % 5.2% 0.8x 10.4x 14.7x 3.0x 12.3x FedEx , , , , , , % x 8.8x 14.0x 1.7x 12.5x United Parcel Service , , , , , , % x 11.8x 15.2x 1.9x 15.2x Min $ 39,253.4 $ 14,575.0 $ 55,083.4 $ 67,205.0 $ 5,298.0 $ 3, % 5.2% 0.8x 8.8x 14.0x 1.7x 12.3x Mean $ 66,211.4 $ 16,351.7 $ 82,529.4 $ 69,613.9 $ 7,929.0 $ 5, % 8.1% 1.2x 10.3x 14.6x 2.2x 13.3x Median $ 60,345.1 $ 15,959.1 $ 74,920.1 $ 70,275.0 $ 8,512.0 $ 5, % x 10.4x 14.7x 1.9x 12.5x Max $ 99,035.8 $ 18,521.0 $ 117,584.8 $ 71,361.7 $ 9,977.0 $ 7, % x 11.8x 15.2x 3.0x 15.2x 7

8 Truckload Celadon Group $ 1.89 $ 52.4 $ $ - $ 1,054.6 $ 83.5 $ % 0.8% NM NM NM 4.5x NM Covenant Transportation % x 5.0x 11.9x 1.7x 9.0x Daseke $ 4.02 $ $ $ $ 1,423.3 $ $ % 0.7x 6.5x 29.9x 4.4x NM Heartland Express ,700.0 (120.0) 1, % 7.6% 2.5x 10.3x 33.0x (0.8x) 22.0x JB Hunt $ $ 11,612.0 $ 1,062.0 $ 12,674.0 $ 8,287.2 $ 1,131.3 $ % x 11.2x 17.9x 0.9x 17.3x Knight-Swift , , , x 7.7x 14.5x 1.0x 13.3x Marten Transport $ $ 1,060.9 $ (35.7) $ 1,025.2 $ $ $ % 7.7% 1.3x 7.0x 17.3x (0.2x) 17.5x P.A.M. Transportation % 6.3% 1.0x 6.4x 15.4x 2.4x 0.0x Werner Enterprises $ $ 2,410.6 $ $ 2,526.0 $ 2,378.9 $ $ % x 6.3x 14.2x 0.3x 13.6x Min $ 52.4 $ (120.0) $ - $ $ 76.8 $ % 0.8% 0.7x 5.0x 11.9x (0.8x) 0.0x Mean $ 2,652.3 $ $ 2,982.0 $ 2,352.4 $ $ % 6.3% 1.3x 7.5x 19.3x 1.6x 13.3x Median $ 1,060.9 $ $ 1,025.2 $ 1,054.6 $ $ % x 6.8x 16.3x 1.0x 13.6x Max $ 11,612.0 $ 1,062.0 $ 12,674.0 $ 8,287.2 $ 1,131.3 $ % x 11.2x 33.0x 4.5x 22.0x 8

9 Less-Than-Truckload ArcBest Corporation $ $ 1,034.3 $ 37.2 $ 1,071.5 $ 3,030.2 $ $ x 4.7x 8.8x 0.2x 10.5x Old Dominion Freight Line ,177.7 (132.5) 11, , % x 11.5x 14.9x (0.1x) 17.8x Roadrunner Transportation ,225.0 (22.9) (61.4) (1.) (2.8%) 0.2x NM NM (22.6x) 0.0x Saia , , , % 1.0x 7.2x 12.6x 0.5x 13.8x TFI International , , , , % 7.8% 1.1x 8.2x 13.5x 2.3x 12.1x YRC Worldwide , % x 3.6x 8.7x 2.8x 5.8x Min $ 27.5 $ (132.5) $ $ 1,581.1 $ (22.9) $ (61.4) (1.) (2.8%) 0.2x 3.6x 8.7x (22.6x) 0.0x Mean $ 2,812.5 $ $ 3,203.9 $ 3,264.4 $ $ % 6.4% 1.0x 7.0x 11.7x (2.8x) 10.0x Median $ 1,285.2 $ $ 1,364.2 $ 3,409.8 $ $ % 5.9% 0.7x 7.2x 12.6x 0.3x 11.3x Max $ 11,177.7 $ 1,142.8 $ 11,045.2 $ 5,053.2 $ $ % x 11.5x 14.9x 2.8x 17.8x 9

10 Railroads / Rail Services American Railcar $ $ 1,341.0 $ $ 1,793.2 $ $ $ % 3.6x 13.7x 25.5x 3.4x 28.1x Canadian National Railway , , , , , , % 40.4% 6.7x 13.4x 16.5x 1.7x 18.8x Canadian Pacific Railway , , , , , , % 42.7% 6.7x 12.9x 15.6x 2.2x 17.8x CSX , , , , , , % 38.8% 6.2x 12.4x 15.9x 2.1x 17.6x Genesee & Wyoming , , , , % 19.8% 3.1x 10.2x 15.9x 3.1x 19.3x Kansas City Southern , , , , , % 35.8% 5.0x 10.3x 13.9x 2.0x 15.5x Norfolk Southern , , , , , , % 35.1% 5.1x 11.4x 14.5x 2.1x 17.1x The Greenbrier Companies ,582.2 (66.7) 1, , % 8.3% 0.7x 5.9x 8.1x (0.2x) 11.4x Union Pacific , , , , , , % 38.2% 5.9x 12.4x 15.6x 1.9x 17.8x Min $ 1,341.0 $ (66.7) $ 1,679.4 $ $ $ % 8.3% 0.7x 5.9x 8.1x (0.2x) 11.4x Mean $ 36,892.8 $ 7,129.4 $ 44,054.3 $ 7,763.6 $ 3,590.8 $ 2, % 30.4% 4.8x 11.4x 15.7x 2.0x 18.2x Median $ 30,112.3 $ 6,294.0 $ 36,226.0 $ 5,433.0 $ 2,805.1 $ 2, % 35.8% 5.1x 12.4x 15.6x 2.1x 17.8x Max $ 113,303.6 $ 20,511.0 $ 133,814.6 $ 22,525.0 $ 10,763.0 $ 8, % 42.7% 6.7x 13.7x 25.5x 3.4x 28.1x 10

11 Supply Chain Technology and Software Absolute Software $ 6.17 $ $ (34.6) $ $ 94.9 $ 8.3 $ % 5.4% 2.3x 25.9x 42.0x (4.2x) 50.6x American Software (80.7) % 7.8% 2.1x 19.6x 26.9x (6.6x) 34.7x Descartes Systems , , % x 26.4x 53.0x 0.2x 23.8x Exlservice Holdings , , % x 17.4x 28.4x 0.5x 19.8x Manhattan Associates ,238.2 (93.9) 3, % 25.6% 5.6x 20.7x 22.0x (0.6x) 34.6x PFSweb % 2.4% 0.6x 7.8x 23.3x 1.5x 31.1x Wisetech Global ,095.8 (88.9) 4, % 28.7% NM NM NM (1.6x) NM Min $ $ (93.9) $ $ 94.9 $ 8.3 $ % 2.4% 0.6x 7.8x 22.0x (6.6x) 19.8x Mean $ 1,752.7 $ (27.5) $ 1,725.5 $ $ 64.3 $ % x 19.6x 32.6x (1.5x) 32.4x Median $ 1,985.5 $ (34.6) $ 2,044.4 $ $ 55.5 $ % x 20.1x 27.7x (0.6x) 32.9x Max $ 4,095.8 $ 58.6 $ 4,008.3 $ $ $ % 28.7% 8.5x 26.4x 53.0x 1.5x 50.6x 11

12 Technology Distribution Arrow Electronics $ $ 6,709.6 $ 3,037.0 $ 9,796.6 $ 29,556.0 $ 1,359.7 $ 1, % x 7.2x 8.3x 2.2x 8.6x Avnet , , , , % 3.1% 0.3x 8.0x 10.2x 1.6x 10.1x CDW Corporation , , , , , % 5.9% 1.1x 14.1x 17.9x 2.7x 17.3x ScanSource , , % 2.7% 0.3x 8.6x 11.8x 1.8x 10.4x SYNNEX , , , , % 2.7% 0.3x 7.8x 10.7x 2.2x 7.2x Tech Data , , , % 1.4% 0.1x 6.2x 7.5x 1.1x 8.1x Min $ $ $ 1,237.1 $ 3,894.6 $ $ % 1.4% 0.1x 6.2x 7.5x 1.1x 7.2x Mean $ 5,673.1 $ 1,708.6 $ 7,390.0 $ 21,486.9 $ $ % 3.3% 0.4x 8.7x 11.1x 2.0x 10.3x Median $ 4,502.3 $ 1,407.1 $ 5,909.4 $ 19,604.6 $ $ % 2.9% 0.3x 7.9x 10.4x 2.0x 9.4x Max $ 13,900.6 $ 3,371.9 $ 17,272.5 $ 39,985.0 $ 1,359.7 $ 1, % 5.9% 1.1x 14.1x 17.9x 2.7x 17.3x 12

13 Healthcare Distribution AmerisourceBergen Corporation $ $ 18,840.9 $ 2,170.0 $ 21,128.0 $ 167,939.6 $ 2,153.4 $ 1, % x 9.8x 12.8x 1.0x 13.1x Cardinal Health, Inc , , , , , , % 1.4% 0.2x 7.9x 12.3x 2.4x 11.1x Henry Schein, Inc , , , , , % 6.8% 1.2x 14.8x 18.2x 1.8x 20.5x McKesson Corporation , , , , , , % x 8.2x 10.7x 1.8x 9.1x Owens & Minor Inc , , , % 0.2x 8.3x 12.5x 6.3x 8.9x Patterson Companies, Inc , , , % x 12.5x 18.7x 3.0x 17.1x Min $ $ $ 1,990.7 $ 5,497.9 $ $ % x 7.9x 10.7x 1.0x 8.9x Mean $ 12,657.1 $ 3,423.4 $ 16,492.2 $ 91,096.0 $ 1,791.8 $ 1, % 0.4x 10.2x 14.2x 2.7x 13.3x Median $ 14,966.8 $ 2,104.0 $ 18,744.7 $ 76,262.9 $ 1,629.8 $ 1, % 1.6% 0.2x 9.0x 12.7x 2.1x 12.1x Max $ 24,324.3 $ 7,097.0 $ 33,044.3 $ 210,927.0 $ 4,053.0 $ 3, % 6.8% 1.2x 14.8x 18.7x 6.3x 20.5x 13

14 Energy Transportation and Logistics Civeo Corporation $ 1.69 $ $ $ $ $ 69.1 $ (59.7) 15.2% (13.2%) 1.7x 10.9x NM 6.0x NM Clean Harbors , , , , % x 10.7x 28.5x 2.9x 45.5x World Fuel , , , % 0.6% 0.1x 7.5x 9.7x 1.9x 12.0x Gibson Energy , , , % x 11.5x 22.0x 3.5x 25.5x Mullen Group , % 7.4% 1.4x 9.9x 19.0x 2.8x 17.7x Min $ $ $ $ $ 69.1 $ (59.7) 0.8% (13.2%) 0.1x 7.5x 9.7x 1.9x 12.0x Mean $ 1,783.8 $ $ 2,543.0 $ 9,824.2 $ $ % 1.1x 10.1x 19.8x 3.4x 25.2x Median $ 1,733.9 $ $ 2,350.1 $ 3,189.5 $ $ % x 10.7x 20.5x 2.9x 21.6x Max $ 3,614.0 $ 1,370.8 $ 4,984.8 $ 38,633.8 $ $ % 7.4% 1.7x 11.5x 28.5x 6.0x 45.5x 14

15 BGSA Supply Chain Conference BG Strategic Advisors will hold its 13th annual conference, BGSA Supply Chain 2019, on January 23-25, 2018 at The Breakers Hotel in Palm Beach, Florida For more information please click here or Shai Greenwald at 15