BRIC Protected Plus Note

Transcription

1 BRIC Protected Plus Note Investment in four strong emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India and China 100% Capital Guarantee at maturity EUR-denominated 8-year maturity Leverage of up to 150% Daily liquidity Subscription period until 23 November 2005

2 Investing in Brazil, Russia, India and China ('BRIC') History has witnessed economic movements with far-reaching consequences. The rise of the US in the 19th century, the industrialisation of Europe and Japan and the more recent strong rise of East Asia are examples of this. The current development of four large emerging markets: Brazil, Russia, India and China - the BRIC countries - could cause a global economic revolution on the same scale. The ABN AMRO BRIC Protected Plus Note lets you participate in the fortunes of these economies. According to economic research * the current six largest world economies: the US, Japan, the UK, Germany, Italy and France, will be overtaken, in terms of GDP, by the BRIC countries within 40 years. The expectation is that of the current top 6 economies only the US and Japan will remain in the group, with the remaining four spots taken by BRIC countries. The impact of BRIC countries on the world economy is already visible in commodity markets, where prices have risen as a result of stagnant supply and rising demand. Foreign direct investment is also flowing into these countries. Currently the BRIC countries' share in the total of world market capitalisation is only 3.5%. According to some estimates, this can grow to 10% in the years up to 2020, and the total value of BRIC market capitalisation will have quadrupled to 4 trillion USD. * Goldman Sachs, Global Economic Paper No 99: 'Dreaming with BRICs: the path to 2050' and No 118: 'The BRICs and Global Markets: Crude, Cars and Capital'. The valuation of the BRIC stock exchanges is thought to be relatively low, despite recent strong increases. When the average economic growth of BRIC countries is contrasted against the valuation of their stock exchanges, (see chart p.6), it becomes clear that they potentially make a much more attractive investment than developed western economies. The Chinese economy could be the largest in the world by 2040; Russia's GDP per capita could have caught up with G6 by 2050; India may grow the fastest over the next 30 years; and that as early as 2009, US dollar spending by the BRIC countries could be higher than that of the G6 combined. Developing BRIC countries may be able to use technology available in more developed countries to 'catch up', and to make leaping increases in GDP. With a combined population of 2.7 billion people, or 43% of the world's population, the BRIC countries represent 24% of world GDP in purchasing power parity terms today (forecast 2005), and are all amongst the top ten countries in the world by this measure. Higher growth may lead to higher returns, increased demand for capital, and a significant increase in the weight of BRIC countries in investment portfolios. Investing in the BRIC countries is also a convenient way to profit from increasing commodity prices. Brazil and Russia are both rich in natural resources, and their national indices are mainly comprised of companies from oil and mining industries. 2 3

3 Brazil India Macro-economic imbalances have been reduced - and policies are now on track. Real interest rates could have further to fall. Valuations seem to be very attractive in a well-developed and diversified corporate sector. Primary resources in Brazil could meet the enormous demand of China. India may achieve strong, domesticled growth. Corporate governance has improved markedly and valuations could become even more attractive. Poverty has fallen from more than 55% of the population in 1974 to 29% in More IT engineers work in Bangalore than in all of Silicon Valley. Russia China The macro-economic position is increasingly robust, through effective fiscal policies. Taxation compliance and collection are both rising. The Russian energy stock market seems to remain very cheap relative to assets. Russia is already one of the world's leading oil producers. China's economy continues to boom and infrastructure investments have been important. Valuations are considered to be reasonable and potential significant. The Olympic Games, Beijing 2008, will likely drive foreign and domestic investment. Favourable demographics: China has a youthful workforce with only 6% of the population aged over

4 Statistics The ABN AMRO BRIC Basket GDP Results and Forecasts GDP Growth Brazil -0.2% 5.3% 3.5% Russia 7.3% 7.2% 5.8% India 7.2% 6.0% 6.5% China 9.1% 9.0% 8.0% Emerging Markets 6.1% 6.6% 5.9% Developed Economies 2.1% 3.6% 2.9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Russia BRIC countries (average) Brazil Source: Bloomberg. Rolling GDP Percentage Forecasts ( ) Brazil China India Russia US Source: Goldman Sachs, Global Paper No 99. Stock Exchange Valuation v. GDP Growth China 0% India Price/Earnings ratio national Stock Exchange Dec Source: Bloomberg. Developed countries (G7): United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France and Italy The size of the data points is determined by the countries' GDP in USD. The graph illustrates that BRIC countries have a low Stock Exchange value relative to their high level of economic growth. The underlying of the BRIC Protected Plus Note is the ABN AMRO BRIC Basket, which is comprised of four equally weighted underlying components: The ABN AMRO Brazil Top 15 Open End Certificate, ISIN: CH The ABN AMRO Russian Depository Index Open End Certificate, ISIN: CH An equally weighted basket of three India Funds: HSBC Global Investment Funds - Indian Equity ISIN: LU , JP Morgan Fleming Funds - India Fund ISIN: LU and Pictet Funds - Indian Equities ISIN: LU The ABN AMRO Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Open End Certificate, ISIN: CH Relative Price Level The Brazil Certificate comprises ADRs representing the 15 topweighted stocks in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange's Bovespa Index. The Russian Certificate tracks the performance of the RDX Index, comprised of liquid Russian shares traded on the London Stock Exchange. The India Basket tracks the performance of three India Equity Funds; the HSBC Indian Equity Fund will typically invest in large liquid companies; the JP Morgan Fleming India Fund invests in Indian sub-continent companies; Pictet Indian Equities Fund invests in companies headquartered in India. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Open End Certificate, tracks the performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Apr 01 Jan 02 Oct 02 Jul 03 Apr 04 Jan 05 Oct 05 RDX India Basket HSCEI BOVESPA S&P500 Source: Bloomberg, October The graph above shows that all these indices and the three India funds average performance have risen since March 2000, compared to the S&P 500, which has fallen by more than 17% over the same period. 6 7

5 Simulation of the ABN AMRO BRIC Protected Plus Note Product Description Assumptions Initial Interest Rate 3.23% Total NAV fees p.a. 1.75% Guarantee 100% Max leverage 150% Maturity (years) 8 Source: ABN AMRO. Annual Underlying Growth Rate Year -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: ABN AMRO. (Assuming a constant interest rate). The charts and tables above contain examples that are based on backtesting and scenario analysis. This means that the examples given are based on assumptions and are purely hypothetical. The examples are in no way indicative of the future performance of the product. 8 Year, 100% Capital Protected Notes linked to the ABN AMRO BRIC Basket in EUR. The 8-Year BRIC Protected Plus Note is 100% capital protected at maturity. This Note contains the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) mechanism. ABN AMRO will notionally allocate between the BRIC Basket and the Bond Component (part which guarantees the principal at maturity) based on dynamic hedging rules. The essence of dynamic allocation is that allocation to the performance component (BRIC Basket) would be increased (and consequently, the bond component will be decreased) if it outperforms the bond component. Similarly allocation to the bond component would be increased (and consequently, allocation to the performance component will be decreased) if it outperforms the performance component. The dynamic allocation mechanism implies that the performance of the product depends strongly on the day-to-day relative performance of the two components. Certain mathematical formulae and levels determine the allocation rules. As the value of the BRIC Basket will change, its allocation may change as well. For example if the value of the BRIC Basket increases, its allocation in the dynamic strategy may increase and therefore the participation in the BRIC Basket may rise further. Participation can go up to 150%, this means a leverage of 1.5 times the Strategy Level. Conversely, if the value of the BRIC Basket decreases, the allocation to the BRIC Basket may decrease as well. The allocation could go as low as 0% and a cash-out event occurs. A cash-out event may occur during the life of the product and the investor will no longer participate in the underlying price movements. Case 1: Case 2: Case 3: Case 4: BRIC on Launch Date BRIC goes down Cash out Event BRIC goes up, leverage 60% 40% 50% 50% 0% 100% 150% 0% invested invested invested invested invested invested invested invested in BRIC in Bonds in BRIC in Bonds in BRIC in Bonds in BRIC in Bonds 8 9

6 Indicative Terms and Conditions Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer Issuer Rating of Issuer Securities ISIN Code Issue Price Nominal Amount Minimum Trading Size Subscription Period Payment/Issue Date Maturity Date Dynamic Portfolio (CPPI mechanism) Strategy Level Final Strategy Level Valuation Date Valuation Time Strategy/Calculation Agent Trading Day Redemption Settlement Settlement Currency Selling Restrictions Secondary Market Early Redemption Fee Fees Publication ABN AMRO Bank N.V., London Branch Senior Long Term Debt of ABN AMRO Bank N.V. is rated: Moody s Aa3, S&P AA- EUR 50,000, % Capital Protected Notes linked to the EUR-denominated ABN AMRO BRIC Basket. ISIN: XS % of the Nominal Amount EUR 1,000 per Security EUR 1,000 in Nominal Amount Until 23 November November November 2013 The portfolio follows is a dynamic allocation mechanism, which allocates leveraged investment between a performance component and a bond component based on their relative performance. The level of the Strategy for each Trading Day, expressed in EUR as determined by the Strategy Agent. The Strategy Level on the Issue Date (the 'Initial Strategy Level') is EUR 980. The Strategy Level determined at the Valuation Time on the Valuation Date expressed in the Settlement Currency. 5 Trading days prior to Maturity Date. The time with reference to which the Strategy Agent calculates the Strategy Level on each Trading Day or such other time as the Issuer may determine. ABN AMRO Bank N.V., London Branch A day on which dealing in the Performance Component may take place. The Securities will be redeemed on the Maturity Date at the greater of: The Final Strategy Level, or 100% of the Nominal Amount Cash EUR Private placement restrictions apply in all non-public offer countries. Not for sale in the US, to US persons, in the Netherlands, or to Dutch persons. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. intends to offer a daily secondary market with an indicative bid/offer spread at 2%. Year 1: 2% Thereafter: nil An Up-Front fee of 2% on the Nominal Amount will be deducted from the Issue Price. The Strategy Level on the Issue Date is EUR 980 (the 'Initial Strategy Level'). A Protection fee of 1.25% per annum applied to the Strategy Level and ceasing to accrue if a cash-out event occurs. A Strategy fee of 0.5% per annum applied to the Strategy Level and ceasing to accrue if a cash-out event occurs. A Finance fee of 2% per annum applied to the Nominal Amount for the first year only. Reuters: ABNPB, Bloomberg: AAPB Internet: This is a summary only and the information contained herein is subject to and qualified in its entirety to the Offering Circular and terms and conditions of the Note and should be read in conjunction with the Offering Circular and terms and conditions. RISK DISCLOSURE: Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance ('CPPI') is a dynamic allocation mechanism which notionally allocates the value of the investment between a performance component (BRIC Basket) and a bond component, based on their relative performance. The bond component tends to reflect the value allocated for protection (which will not, except in certain cases where the allocation is completely allocated to the bond component until maturity (a 'cash out event'), be equal to the present value of the amount guaranteed). Allocation rules are determined by certain mathematical formulae and levels. Market conditions and/or specific terms of the Notes, may result in changes to the allocations (ie. increases and decreases) occurring very rapidly. Potential investors should ensure they understand the formulae and levels and their interconnection prior to investing in the Notes. CPPI may also provide for leverage, essentially a 'notional loan'. Leverage allows for an increase in the BRIC Basket allocation in excess of the value of the Securities, if certain ratios are met (ie. ratios which indicate that the BRIC Basket is performing). In particular market circumstances, the allocation may be 100% to the bond component until maturity (usually defined as a 'cash-out event'). Further, the price at which a holder will be able to sell the Notes prior to maturity may potentially be at a substantial discount to the protected amount at maturity. Investors should be aware that the Issuer is entitled to terminate the Notes in certain circumstances against payment of an early termination amount. EMERGING MARKETS: Investors in emerging markets should be aware that such markets are subject to greater risk than more developed markets, including (but not limited to) significant legal, economic, market and political risks which can result in significant financial turmoil in markets within the relevant country and can have a ripple effect on other emerging markets. In such cases this may lead to restructuring or suspension of certain domestic sovereign instruments. Therefore there can be no assurance that events will not occur which would cause volatility of the sort which occurred in global financial markets previously or that such volatility will not adversely affect the liquidity of the market for or price of the Certificates and/or the impact or variation of exchange control provisions. Further details are in the prospectus. DISCLAIMER: This document is not for distribution in the US, to US persons, in the Netherlands, to Dutch persons, nor to private customers in the UK. The information in this document has been produced by ABN AMRO Bank N.V. ( ABN AMRO ); whilst obtained from sources believed to be reliable, ABN AMRO makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Information and opinions contained herein are for information purposes only. Past results do not guarantee and are not indicative of future performance. Each product's value can fall as well as rise. Nothing in this document should be construed as a solicitation or offer, legal, tax or other advice, or recommendation to engage in any transaction. ABN AMRO or any of its associates may have a long or short position, purchase or sell on an agency or principal basis, make a market in or engage in other transactions, provide investment or commercial banking, credit or other services with the issuer of any security or financial instrument underlying the derivative product entered with you. Prospective investors should understand the risks involved in these products and reach an investment decision only after careful consideration, with their advisors, of the suitability of investing in these products in light of their particular investment considerations. Definitive terms and conditions in respect of this product are contained in the Offering Circular/ Prospectus (as applicable). This document shall neither be forwarded to any private investor nor shall it be published in any form that would constitute a public offer in any country in which private placement restrictions apply. TRADEMARK DISCLAIMER: Russian Depository Receipts Index/RDX are trademarks of, was developed, is real-time calculated and published by Wiener Börse AG. Non-exclusive authorisation to use the RDX by ABN AMRO in conjunction with financial products was granted under a license agreement with Wiener Börse AG. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) is a mark & name proprietary to Hang Seng Data Services Limited ( HSDS ) which has licensed its compilation & publication to HSI Services Limited ( HSI ). HSI & HSDS have agreed to the use of, and reference to, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by ABN AMRO in connection with the HSCEI Certificates. This product is not issued, sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the above and they make no warranties or bear any liabilities with respect to it

7 For further information on ABN AMRO products: UK Branch ABN AMRO Bank N.V. +44 (0) Bishopsgate London EC2M 4AA Switzerland Branch ABN AMRO Bank N.V (0) Beethovenstrasse Zürich France Branch ABN AMRO Bank N.V. +33 (0) , rue de Courcelles Paris info@abnamromarkets.com