Module 4: Capital Structure and Dividend Policy

Transcription

1 Module 4: Capital Structure and Dividend Policy Reading 4.1 Capital structure theory Reading 4.2 Capital structure theory in perfect markets Reading 4.3 Impact of corporate taxes on capital structure Reading 4.3 Impact of personal taxes on capital structure Reading 4.3 Other influences on capital structure Reading 4.4 Impact of bankruptcy costs on capital structure Reading 4.5 Selecting the optimal capital structure Reading 4.6 Dividend policy: Theoretical foundation Reading 4.6 Dividend policy in practice Reading 4.7 The mechanics of dividend payments Reading 4.8 Stock dividends and stock splits Reading 4.8 Share repurchases

2 How Module 4 has been tested on the exam:

3 How a Company Creates Value: ROIC > WACC

4 Reading 4.2: Capital Structure Theory in Perfect Markets What is meant by perfect markets = As long as investors have homogeneous expectations regarding the future earnings of firms and there are no transaction costs or taxes

5 Miller & Modigliani (MM) Proposition I: A firm s choice of financing should not affect the value of its assets. Because leverage does not affect business risk, K L = K U firm value is independent of leverage.

6 Miller & Modigliani (MM) Proposition II: Cost of equity of a levered firm = cost of equity of unlevered firm + risk premium. Risk premium rises as leverage increases. The net effect is that the advantage of cheaper debt is offset exactly by an increase in the cost of equity.

7 Reading 4.3-1, 2, & : Impact of Taxes and Bankruptcy Costs on Capital Structure

8 Corporate Taxes Corporate taxes favour debt financing because it is tax deductible. The use of moderate levels of debt in a firm s capital structure decreases the weighted average cost of capital and increases the value of the firm. Firm value is increased by tax savings of interest payments: Mini case 4.3 Q7

9 Modifying MM Proposition I:

10 Proposition II: Levered cost of equity = unlevered cost of equity + risk premium (difference between unlevered cost of equity and cost of debt)

11 Two important differences between these propositions and those of the no-tax case in In the presence of corporate taxes, the value of the firm increases as debt is added to the capital structure. The greater the debt usage, the higher the value of the firm will be. The cost of equity to the levered firm increases less rapidly than when there are no corporate taxes.

12 Personal Taxes Do we need to consider the tax rates of the typical investor? While issuing debt has tax advantages for a company, it has tax disadvantages for the typical investor. Can we use one tax rate that covers majority of investors? The reading assumes investors are individuals who invests more in bonds, individual investors or pension funds? Minicase 4-5

13 Sept 2014 exam:

14 Bankruptcy cost As debt takes a larger share in a company s capital structure, the probability of bankruptcy increases. The cost of bankruptcy is split into two: Direct costs Legal costs of dealing with default/reorganization/bankruptcy Indirect costs Perception that company is in financial trouble (loss of sales/customers/suppliers), time dealing with problem

15 June 2013 exam:

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17 Reading 4.4 page 2

18 Reading 4.3: Other Influences on Capital Structure Generally, companies will borrow less if they have: High business risk Significant intangible assets Lower tax rates

19 Business risk Minicase 4-6 Risk of the company's operations with respect to the variability of EBIT. Operating leverage - Extent that a firm's costs are fixed. Fixed costs are incurred regardless of sales level. Remember: Break even sales volume

20 From June 2011 exam:

21 Agency costs Bondholders have different interests than shareholders or management. Does the typical CEO indentify more with shareholders or bondholders? These different interests could have a negative impact on the bondholders represent agency costs. Typical actions to counter agency costs -- demanding a higher interest rate and imposing tougher covenants in the bond indenture.

22 Signaling and asymmetric information Signaling - The company conveys information about its future prospects trough its actions. Asymmetric information When it is assumed that current shareholders have greater information than other investors. Can we gain insight into a company s future prospects by its financing decisions?

23 Pecking Order Theory Why issue convertible preferred shares when you don t have to?? Aswath Damodaran

24 Reading 4.5: Selecting the optimal capital structure In practice, the key to an optimal capital structure is to minimize the company s Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

25 Leverage-indifference EBIT level Defined as EBIT level at which return on assets = interest cost of debt. Used when comparing share financing with debt financing, and preferred share financing with common share financing.

26 When comparing debt financing with preferred share financing, Equation 4-18 will not have an answer since it is assumed debt interest and preferred share dividend yield are the same in both scenarios. In this case, compare after tax interest cost on debt with dividend yield on preferred shares.

27 March 2013 exam:

28 Other factors influencing capital structure Industry Averages Market value of debt or book value? What do you include as debt? Rating agencies Methodology: Rating Companies in the North American Railway Industry Dominion Bond Rating Service

29 Other factors influencing capital structure Rating Agencies Methodology: Rating Companies in the North American Railway Industry Dominion Bond Rating Service

30 Other factors influencing capital structure Financial flexibility Control Asset growth Level of cash flows

31 How Do CFOs Make Capital Budgeting and Capital Structure Decisions?, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance

32 Reading 4.6: Dividend Policy: Theoretical Foundation

33 Traditional bird-in-hand Shareholders prefer dividends now as opposed to potential payments in the future. No guarantee dividends now is a better option than investing in attractive projects for the future. Investors choose to invest in high or low dividend paying stocks depending on their risk/return trade off preference. Capital gains are more risky than dividend income. Perfect-market view More nonsense from Miller & Modigliani Dividend policy is irrelevant to company valuation - it depends on company s earning power and risk/reward. Assumptions required for this view to hold make this useless.

34 Tax differential effects The difference in tax treatment between dividends and capital gains might help determine a firm s value. Pension plans are indifferent, taxable Canadian corporations would favour dividends, individual investors would prefer cap gains. Signalling hypothesis Change in dividend amounts/policies give a clue to company s future prospects. A dividend increase doesn t always lead to an increase in share price, a dividend cut is almost always followed by a decline in share price.

35 Expectations view Investors develop expectations regarding a company s future dividend increases based on historical patterns, current market conditions, or primarily from company guidance. Market s reaction to dividend announcement is more of a function of the market s expectation rather than the actual announcement. Clientele effect Different types of investors will gravitate towards different kind of stocks based on their preferences. Investors seeking stable income will favour high dividend yield stocks that are larger companies with a stable history of dividend increases. Companies may not want to materially alter their dividend policies for fear of attracting different kind of investors.

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37 Other factors affecting dividend policy Legal and mandated restrictions Firm liquidity Earnings volatility Control

38 Reading 4.6-2: Dividend Policy in Practice

39 Two important features of dividend policy 1. Stability - Dividend stability and uninterrupted increases in the payout ratio over time are strong indicators of stability and high quality. Firms should set conservative dividend policies to maintain stability and avoid disappointing investors. 2. Industry norms - Dividend payout ratios vary across industries due to different industry characteristics.

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41 Establishing a dividend policy 1. Constant dividend payout ratio policy Pay out a constant % of earnings. Usually some sort of range (i.e 60-70%) that is based on some sort of average. Earnings are much more variable than actual dividend payments. Fluctuations of dividends is the direct result of fluctuations in dividends.

42 2. Residual dividend payout ratio policy Pay dividends only when cash flow exceeds funding needs. If a company can earn a higher return reinvesting its cash flow rather than paying it out as dividends, then there is a case for a residual dividend payout policy. More suited for special dividends rather than for a regular dividend too much uncertainty. Fluctuation in dividend is the result of fluctuations in funding needs.

43 3. Constant dollar dividend policy Pay fixed dollar amount on a regular basis. Reduces uncertainty surrounding amount of dividend, much more preferable. Company will still estimate company s funding needs over the next 3-5 years and determine an appropriate dividend amount. Often you see companies engage in short term borrowing to fund a dividend however this can t be a regular occurrence.

44 The right way to think about dividend policy Aswath Damodaran

45 Reading 4.7: The Mechanics of Dividend Payments

46 * DRIPS Pay Date December 31 st 2009 Record Date November 25, 2009 Ex date two business days before Nov 25 Nov 23 Have to buy the shares before Nov 23 to be entitled to the dividend. You can sell the shares on or after Nov 23 rd and still get the dividend.

47 Reading 4.8: Stock Dividends, Stock Splits, and Share Repurchases

48 Stock dividends Dividend paid in shares in lieu of cash. Suited for smaller companies wanting to preserve cash, or companies who don t have the cash to pay its regular dividend. Stock splits Firm increases amount of shares outstanding by a certain ratio (i.e 2 for 1 stock split). Companies will do this once their share price is deemed too high. Value of company doesn t change just amount of outstanding shares. Reverse splits occur when a company is trying to avoid being a penny stock. Difference between stock dividends and splits is the accounting treatment.

49 Stock Buybacks

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51 Historical Projected Revenue USD Mil 3,244 3,847 3,767 5,234 9,447 3,977 6,539 8,715 8,279 8,279 8,279 8,279 8,279 Operating Cash Flow USD Mil ,689 3, ,999 3,485 2,898 2,898 2,898 2,898 2,898 Cap Spending USD Mil ,245-1,818-2,019-2,248-2,070-1,656-1,242-1,242-1,242 Free Cash Flow (FCF) ,082 1, , ,242 1,656 1,656 1,656 Debt (repay) 951 1,531-1, Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 57 2, ,156 1,156 1,656 Dividends paid FCFE available after dividend paid 57 2, ,848 Assumptions: Revenue growth 18.59% -2.08% 38.94% 80.49% % 64.42% 33.28% -5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OCF % of Revenue 20.04% 22.49% 18.50% 32.27% 31.89% 23.23% 45.86% 39.99% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Cap spending % of Revenues 6.81% 9.96% 13.51% 11.60% 13.18% 45.71% 30.88% 25.79% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Dividend increases (%) 16.67% % % 30.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 50.0% 50.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Miscellaneous Data: Earnings Per Share USD Dividends USD % Payout Ratio (%) 20.0% 13.0% 7.6% 8.8% 3.5% 12.0% 6.6% 8.0% Shares Mil 997 1, Debt to Total Capital 36.4% 41.5% 41.0% 19.3% 40.3% 38.6% 45.5% 36.6%

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53 Historical Projected Revenue USD Mil 3,244 3,847 3,767 5,234 9,447 3,977 6,539 8,715 7,927 7,305 7,305 7,305 7,305 Operating Cash Flow USD Mil ,689 3, ,999 3,485 3,225 3,212 2,922 2,922 2,922 Cap Spending USD Mil ,245-1,818-2,019-2,248-2,204-1,624-1,096-1,096-1,096 Free Cash Flow (FCF) ,082 1, ,237 1,021 1,588 1,826 1,826 1,826 Debt (repay) 951 1,531-1, Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) 57 2, ,014 1,338 1,326 1,326 1,826 Dividends paid ,040-1,144-1,258-1,384 FCFE available after dividend paid 57 2, ,513 Assumptions: Revenue growth 18.59% -2.08% 38.94% 80.49% % 64.42% 33.28% -9.0% -7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OCF % of Revenue 20.04% 22.49% 18.50% 32.27% 31.89% 23.23% 45.86% 39.99% 40.7% 44.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Cap spending % of Revenues 6.81% 9.96% 13.51% 11.60% 13.18% 45.71% 30.88% 25.79% 27.8% 22.2% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Dividend increases (%) 16.67% % % 30.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 100.0% 112.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Miscellaneous Data: Earnings Per Share USD Dividends USD % Payout Ratio (%) 20.0% 13.0% 7.6% 8.8% 3.5% 12.0% 6.6% 8.0% 23.6% 58.3% Shares Mil 997 1, Debt to Total Capital 36.4% 41.5% 41.0% 19.3% 40.3% 38.6% 45.5% 36.6%

54 Our growth plans are based on NYMEX natural gas prices of $5.75 for 2010, and as I said earlier, a range of $6 to $7 longer-term. We've begun stewarding the company based on the bottom end of this range. EnCana CEO Randy Eresman March 2010

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