BUY. Big beneficiary of rural recovery; BUY DABUR INDIA. Target Price: Rs 395. Key drivers (%) FY18E FY19E FY20E
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- Duane Baker
- 6 years ago
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1 BUY Target Price: Rs 395 Big beneficiary of rural recovery; BUY We upgrade Dabur to BUY on likely faster recovery in rural economy (where Dabur has created an edge) on multiple tailwinds, with a realigned supply chain and ayurvedic portfolio to boot. We see double digit sales and earnings momentum to be back effective FY19. We had HOLD rating on Dabur largely due to deceleration in growth in rural markets and lack of growth engines. Our Mar-19 TP of Rs 395 (earlier Rs 335) is based on 1 year forward P/E of 38x. We now estimate consolidated sales and EPS CAGR of 9% and 13% over FY17-20E with 110 bps improvement in OPM to 21% in FY20E. P/E valuation at 40x and 34x for FY19E and FY20E looks attractive vs. peers (trading at 10-20% discount to peers). CMP : Rs 354 Potential Upside : 12% MARKET DATA No. of Shares : 1,762 mn Free Float : 32% Market Cap : Rs 624 bn 52-week High / Low : Rs 361 / Rs 263 Avg. Daily vol. (6mth) : 1.2 mn shares Bloomberg Code : DABUR IB Equity Promoters Holding : 68% FII / DII : 17% / 9% Q3FY18 preview: Q3 domestic volume growth is likely to be in mid-teens given the weak base (declined in Q3FY17) and demand recovery post GST. With low single digit price decline, we expect, overall domestic sales growth in low teens. On international front, with receding currency effect, sales decline in the international business to decelerate in Q3 and to reverse from Q4. With effect of devaluation of currency fading in Egypt, region to see growth coming back. However, in Turkey and Nigeria, devaluation impact to have a bearing. Introduction of VAT in UAE is likely to affect business. Overall, we expect high single digit topline growth with low teen EBITDA and PAT growth in Q3FY18. Diversification makes Dabur stable: We like Dabur given its diversified business which not only makes it safe and less vulnerable to sudden competitive, regulatory, inflationary and growth issues in any category, but also ensures stable growth. While structural slowdown in hair oil (18% of sales) is a cause for concern, we expect growth momentum in oral care, home care, juices and healthcare to accelerate on improved demand outlook. Because of its diversified nature, Dabur has been able to deliver consistent double digit sales and EPS growth every year for ten years till FY16. We expect double digit momentum to kick in from FY19. Financial summary (Consolidated) Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Sales (Rs mn) 75,922 77,628 88,088 99,560 Adj PAT (Rs mn) 12,768 13,545 15,704 18,307 Con. EPS* (Rs) EPS (Rs) Change YOY (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/E (x) DPS (Rs) Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, Axis Capital Key drivers (%) FY18E FY19E FY20E Dom sales growth Intl sales growth (6.3) Gross margin (consol) EBITDA margin (consol) Price performance Sensex Dabur India 80 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 01
2 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 7% 7% 11% 12% Domestic business geared for recovery While rural growth outpaced urban growth in Q2FY18 for most companies, though by a thin margin, the outperformance is likely to widen in the next few quarters given multiple drivers for rural recovery (explained in the section below). Deriving large part of its revenue from rural, Dabur has realigned its supply chain and geared to grab the opportunity in ayurveda. The company expects 8-10% volume growth in medium term, which can improve further (to 10-12%) on factors like enhanced policy stimulus, good monsoon next year, and improved economic growth. Competition helping us to make our position stronger Lalit Malik, CFO Higher rural salience to aid growth Rural 4 of Dabur s India sales demand is on a path to recovery (double digit growth in Q2FY18 for Dabur) and, the growth is likely to accelerate over next four to five quarters driven by multiple tailwinds of (a) minimum support price increases, (b) rural wage growth, (c) good monsoon, (d) financial inclusions (of 300 mn new bank accounts opened, 180 mn are in rural, which is helping financial flows in rural economy), (e) infrastructure investment and (f) likely stimulus from central government as 2019 general election nears (a similar trend seen in past). The company believes rural sales will be the key driver of domestic growth over the medium term. 1 13% 11% 9% 7% 3% 1% -1% Annual minimum support price increases FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Paddy Wheat Maize Jowar Moong On volume growth: The base case perhaps at this point in time would be 8-10%; the bull case would be perhaps 10-12% and bear 5-7 %.So that is the kind of range we are looking at. But if the rural economy picks up, there is a good monsoon next year, and the stimulus is enhanced, I see no reason why the aggregate growth cannot trend up to double digits Sunil Duggal, CEO strengthened rural GTM to boot To leverage upon rural demand recovery, the company has proactively realigned the rural supply chain. Some strategic steps include: (a) addition of ~300 sales personnel for rural, (b) separate sales team for personal care and home care (focus on improving productivity), (c) higher reliance on sub-stockist network and rural wholesale (small operations, seen relatively faster recovery, grew 30% in Q2FY18) for rural supplies (earlier supply was from urban wholesale). Dabur India s overall outlet reach is ~6.3 mn outlets, of which 0.95 mn outlets are serviced directly. On rural recovery: We are seeing early signs of rural revival. We do expect this to perhaps accelerate in the next four to five quarters leading to the general election in 2019 Sunil Duggal, CEO 2
3 Hindustan Unilever Dabur ITC Godrej Consumer Marico Colgate Britannia Emami Nestle GSK Consumer Jyothy Lab. Emami Dabur Bajaj Corp. Jyothy Lab. Colgate Hindustan Unilever Britannia Marico Godrej Consumer Nestle ITC GSK Consumer 60% 50% Rural sales contribution (%) 50% 4 42% 40% 38% 40% 3 32% 31% 28% % 20% Outlet reach (mn) Indirect reach Direct reach Focus on scaling up small relevant brands Dabur is likely to maintain the pace of new product introduction (4-5 annually), but will aggressively promote small but strong brand offerings. In a recent presentation, the company has highlighted that it has 15 brands (most are leaders in niche segments) sized between, Rs bn, which can be scaled to Rs 1 bn+. Key brand offerings Recent product launches 3
4 Hair oil under stress, Vatika to be restaged In five out of last six quarters, hair oil franchisee is stressed with sales declining in low to high single digits. Dabur s forte, Dabur Amla, sales have remained flat in past couple of years. Interestingly, Marico has cracked the category with Nihar Shanti Amla and has gained volume market share. In coconut oil, Vatika franchisee has drawn muted response, while Anmol pushed aggressively has posted relatively faster growth. Dabur Vatika has been revitalized on ayurvedic platform and new campaign with brand ambassador Karenna Kapoor Khan is likely to be on air from Q4FY18. Oral care (16% of sales) strong on Dabur Red In oral care, Dabur looks to leverage herbal opportunity through Dabur Red, which is now a Rs 5 bn brand. Babool is largely positioned for rural market and is likely to recover with rural recovery. Meswak, while premised on herbal platform, has not been leveraged that effectively. Our supply chain check suggests limited threat from HUL s entry into herbal toothpaste under Ayush brand. today in oral care, we have a 1 volume share and Unilever has a 17% share. Colgate, of course, is much higher. We want to take the number two position in oral care in the next one to two years after Colgate. And Red will be the key driver of this growth Sunil Duggal, CEO Juices (19% of sales) continue to strengthen offerings The company looks to have offerings under three brands Active, Real Active, and Koolerz. Of the new launches, VOLO has not worked and taken off, while JuC will now be branded as Koolerz (mass end value products; will compete with likes of Frooti and Maaza). After successful test launch of Mocktails Nepal, the company has recently launched offering in India (priced at Rs 110/ltr). The company has launched offerings primarily in the modern trade channel and big general trade. Health care (31% of sales) offerings require better attention Despite robust health care portfolio, the potential of consumer health care division has not been aptly leveraged. Dabur enjoys strong competitive positioning in the space with strong brand portfolio (key brands include Dabur Lal Tail, Honitus, Shilajit, Isabgol and Dashmularishta). Our check with supply chain suggests better investment in OTC offering can drive better growth. We believe Dabur has now strengthened the backend with (a) Project lead Doctor Advocacy programme, (b) Ask Dabur (subscription based model) and (c) Intent to open Chikitshalayas and would be promoting its offerings. 4
5 Project lead update Currency pressures in international business receding With currency effect receding, sales decline in the international business to decelerate in Q3FY18 and to reverse from Q4FY18. With fading effect of devaluation of currency in Egypt, region to see growth coming back. However, in Turkey and Nigeria, devaluation impact to affect the show. Introduction of VAT in UAE effective 1 st Jan 2018 could affect business Region-wise, performance in MENA, GCC, and Saudi Arabia is improving, while North African belt (Libya, Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco) remain hit by political issues (markets are more or less closed) In the past decade, while the share of international business expanded from 11% to 30%, the sales mix has also diversified (dependence on hair oil reduced from 93% in FY06 to 37% in FY17). Organic international sales mix FY06 Organic international sales mix FY17 Skin care, 8% Others, Others, Oral care, 2% Hair oil, 93% Oral care, 12% Hamamza ith & Styling, 12% Shampoo, 1 Hair cream, 12% Hair oil, 37% 5
6 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18F (5.0) (4.4) (2.5) In international market, Dabur has leveraged its brand potential by extending core brands into adjacent categories. Dabur Amla and Vatika franchisee expanded from hair oil into hair cream, shampoo, conditioner, styling products, hair colors and serum. We believe Dabur has gained wider expertise in hair care space, and is aptly positioned to cross pollinate R&D to Indian market. Dabur Amla- International portfolio expansion Dabur vatika- International portfolio expansion Dabur is geared up to ride on natural/ herbal wave globally, as it enters international markets in association with Amazon Q3 preview Q3 domestic volume growth is likely to be in mid-teens, given weak base (volume declined in Q3FY17) and post GST demand recovery. With low single digit price decline, we expect overall domestic sales growth in low teens. Over the medium term, the company believes 8-10% volume growth is likely, which could see further uptick (10-12%) from factors like enhanced stimulus, good monsoon next year and improved economic growth Quarterly volume growth (%) (4) (8) 6
7 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Valuations 1-year fwd. PE on consensus EPS PE (x) 10 yr median Source: Bloomberg, Axis Capital 7
8 Financial summary (Consolidated) Profit & loss (Rs mn) Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net sales 75,922 77,628 88,088 99,560 Other operating income Total operating income 76,136 77,762 88,237 99,726 Cost of goods sold (37,554) (38,579) (43,614) (48,984) Gross profit 38,582 39,183 44,623 50,742 Gross margin (%) Total operating expenses (23,493) (23,477) (26,622) (29,908) EBITDA 15,090 15,706 18,000 20,833 EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation (1,429) (1,625) (1,709) (1,798) EBIT 13,661 14,082 16,292 19,035 Net interest (540) (505) (219) (229) Other income 2,982 3,475 3,752 4,428 Profit before tax 16,103 17,052 19,825 23,235 Total taxation (3,303) (3,486) (4,099) (4,904) Tax rate (%) Profit after tax 12,800 13,565 15,726 18,332 Minorities (31) (20) (22) (24) Profit/ Loss associate co(s) Adjusted net profit 12,768 13,545 15,704 18,307 Adj. PAT margin (%) Net non-recurring items Reported net profit 12,770 13,545 15,704 18,307 Balance sheet (Rs mn) Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Paid-up capital 1,762 1,762 1,762 1,762 Reserves & surplus 46,712 54,787 64,173 75,103 Net worth 48,474 56,549 65,935 76,864 Borrowing 9,115 2,650 2,650 2,650 Other non-current liabilities 1, Total liabilities 58,917 60,481 69,867 80,797 Gross fixed assets 28,427 31,727 33,727 35,727 Less: Depreciation (8,843) (10,468) (12,176) (13,974) Net fixed assets 19,584 21,259 21,551 21,753 Add: Capital WIP Total fixed assets 20,005 21,459 21,751 21,953 Total Investment 32,525 29,757 30,757 31,757 Inventory 11,067 12,088 13,539 15,174 Debtors 6,504 7,662 8,441 9,843 Cash & bank 3,048 5,202 13,974 22,036 Loans & advances 3,820 3,763 4,252 4,852 Current liabilities 18,393 19,827 23,262 25,274 Net current assets 6,387 9,265 17,359 27,087 Other non-current assets Total assets 58,917 60,481 69,867 80,797 Cash flow (Rs mn) Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Profit before tax 16,103 17,052 19,825 23,235 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,429 1,625 1,709 1,798 Chg in working capital 156 (780) 1,167 (1,067) Cash flow from operations 10,513 10,936 14,850 14,635 Capital expenditure (598) (3,079) (2,000) (2,000) Cash flow from investing (5,161) 3, Equity raised/ (repaid) Debt raised/ (repaid) 1,073 (6,465) - - Dividend paid (4,770) (5,516) (6,364) (7,425) Cash flow from financing (4,507) (12,001) (6,340) (7,402) Net chg in cash 844 2,154 8,772 8,062 Key ratios Y/E March FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E OPERATIONAL FDEPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) Dividend payout ratio (%) GROWTH Net sales (%) (9.6) EBITDA (%) (0.9) Adj net profit (%) FDEPS (%) PERFORMANCE RoE (%) RoCE (%) EFFICIENCY Asset turnover (x) Sales/ total assets (x) Working capital/ sales (x) Receivable days Inventory days Payable days FINANCIAL STABILITY Total debt/ equity (x) Net debt/ equity (x) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) Current ratio (x) Interest cover (x) VALUATION PE (x) EV/ EBITDA (x) EV/ Net sales (x) PB (x) Dividend yield (%) Free cash flow yield (%)
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