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1 rene E. Kagianni Industry:Retail Oil Trade REVOIL GA Price: 1,03 Target: 1,80 Cap: 22,9 Cap: 40,2 Potential: 75,23% March 26, 2010 Investment Opinion: BUY (5/5) REVOIL SA REV GA /REVr.AT PRICE & VOLUME vs ATHEX INDEX 250, , ,000 Current Price (26/3):1,03 Target Price: 1,8 Upside potential:75% COMPANY DESCRIPTION Revoil SA operates petroleum and petrochemical businesses in Greece. The Company trades oil,fuels,lubricants and chemicals. SHARE DATA # Shares: (Common Registered) Capitalization ( M): 22,95 200d Mov.Avrg Price:0,98 200d Mov.Avrg. Volume (#): %Price Change since 31/12/2009:8.4% 52 week High (ADJUSTED) :1,2 (28/9/09) 52 Week Low :0,54(9/12/2009) Major Shareholders: 72,22% Institutional Investors and Free float :27.78% VALUATION (Working Hypotheses) Risk Free Interest Rate (Rf): 4,50% WACC: 10,51% 5-year CAGR of Turnover: 11,65% Perpetuity after 2014:0.5% 5-year CAGR of EBT: 19,00% Effective Tax Rate09: 29,75% MERIT Securities S.A., Research & Analysis Department 2-4 Sina str., , Tel: , Fax: , analysis@merit.gr FINANCIAL DATA MERIT Securities S.A., Research & Analysis Department 2-4 Sina str., , Tel: , Fax: , analysis@merit.gr Emmanuel J. Varsos ejv@merit.gr M 2009 A SALES 572,0 581,1 662,4 715,4 EBITDA 5,8 7,8 7,9 8, Emmanuel J. Varsos ejv@merit.gr Kostas N. Glykas kng@merit.gr, Marios V. Theofanopoulos mvt@merit.gr, Venetia A. Karapanou vak@merit.gr, Mihail I. Fragkopoulos mif@merit.gr,irene E. Kagianni iek@merit.gr Kostas N. Glykas kng@merit.gr, Marios V. Theofanopoulos mvt@merit.gr, Venetia A. Karapanou vak@merit.gr, Mihail I. Fragkopoulos mif@merit.gr,irene E. Kagianni iek@merit.gr 0.0 Volume REVOIL SA ATHEX INDEX 100,000 We initiate our coverage of REVOIL SA with a BUY recommendation. Our estimated fair value is 1,8 per share. Our two-stage DCF model yields a target market value of 40,2M and implies an upside potential of 75% from current price levels. Although the retail oil sector is currently under stress due to heavy taxation, Revoil seems able to increase its market share. The stock can be a defensive one in a risky macroeconomic environment for Greece and despite its relatively low marketability can offer significant profits and a high dividend yield. AT A GLANCE: REVOIL is a 100% Greek-owned company engaged in the retail sales of petroleum products. There are currently 421 filling stations with the Revoil brand from 410 a year ago. Market share is currently at 6.5% while there is a target for 8% for 2011 and 500 filling stations for Apart from the sales of petrol and oils it also offers storage services for BP,EKO, Jetoil, Motor Oil etc. The Greek retail market is fragmented. The margins are low and there is strong competition but the market share of Revoil is gradually increasing. Improvement in the brand awareness of Revoil. Investments of the previous years is depicted in the increased volume of sales. The company s expansion focuses on more efficient filling stations instead of inefficient stations with low earnings. Entry to Cretan market is considered a bet for the company. Revoil s Group also includes Revoil Constructions SA which is currently inactive. FY 2009 RESULTS: IMPRESSIVE IMPROVEMENT Small increase in sales by 1.6% in comparison to FY Increase in gross margin which reached the levels of The increase in quantities was much higher but it is not depicted in sales since the price of petrol decreased substantially in The volume of sales in liters increased by 17% from 708,4M lt to 828,6M lt whereas the change in the Greek market is insignificant. Gross margin increased to 4.3% This margin is not seriously affected by fluctuations in the price of crude oil. The company is able to adjust the price upwards when there is an increase in the price of crude oil and vice versa. Increase in volume sales of heating oil by 23,2% mainly due to the Oikoplus, the new suggestion of Revoil for houses. Increase in sales of lubricants where the margins remain high. Increase in EBITDA by 33% and in EATAM by 109%. Marginal increase in domestic sales while Sales in Bulgaria increased to 10,6Μ. Increase in Net Cash Position after the paying off of some debt. Debt-to Equity ratio currently at low levels. Liquidity ratio at 1 and high dividend yield (6.9%). Taxation in motor fuels will have a positive effect in sales in Euros due to the substantial increase in retail price but may affect negatively the gross margin and the volume of sales. 50,000 0 EATAM 1,46 3,04 3,55 4,34 Y-o-Y Total Τurnover EBITDA EBT EATAM 2009 A % 8,73% 28,44% 1,59% 14,00% 8,00% 8,00% % -2,19% -7,30% 33,63% 1,17% 13,12% 4,50% % -14,72% -21,43% 104,08% 7,96% 20,42% 14,49% % -14,46% -21,83% 108,91% 16,81% 22,00% 15,97% MERIT Securities S.A., Research & Analysis Department 38 Vasileos Konstantinou str., 11635, Tel: , Fax: , analysis@merit.gr Emmanuel J. Varsos ejv@merit.gr, Dionysios J. Leftakis djl@merit.gr Evagelos K. Kalogiropoulos vkk@merit.gr, Thodoris N. Stathis tns@merit.gr, Nikolaos V. Christodoulou nvc@merit.gr

2 SWOT ANALYSIS 2/13 Strengths omargins not affected by the increase in crude oil s price. ocompetitive price policy. o Filling stations network expands throughout all the provinces of Greece. o Positive net cash position. oadvantageous position, size and technology of the storage facilities in Chios and Kavala. FUTURE TARGETS Weaknesses othe company is not diversified. o Low marketability. Opportunities oincrease in market share after the exit of big multinationals. oentry in the Cretan market. oincrease of the company s share in lubricants where the margins are higher. oopportunities for development in the Bulgarian market and in other Balkan countries. Threats ostrong competition. otaxation may lead to lower consumption of motor fuels. o Macroeconomic environment may deteriorate. INVESTMENT RISKS -LIQUIDITY RISK: Liquidity risk refers to the probability that the group will not be able to pay for its liabilities and especially its suppliers and its debt. Revoil s net cash position is rather high. -INTEREST RATE RISK: This risk is moderate because of the relatively low debt. However, the risk of a violent increase in EURIBOR is still low and the company s new loan was taken at a currently relatively low rate. -CREDIT RISK: Low risk because of a high dispersion of its customers. The company makes provisions for doubtful accounts when it is necessary. -CURRENCY RISK: Insignificant risk. -WEATHER RISK: Weather affects sales of heating oil. -PRICE RISK: The company is protected from a violent increase in the price of crude oil. The only risk is related to the value of inventory. SHAREHOLDER S STRUCTURE ROUSSOS EVANGELOS ROUSSOS GEORGIOS ROUSSOS IOANNIS FREE FLOAT ROUSSOS EVANGELOS 36% ROUSSOS GEORGIOS 19,75% ROUSSOS IOANNIS 14,22% FREE FLOAT 27,78% Source: Bloomberg, The Company

3 GROUP S PROFILE-HISTORY 3/13 REVOIL was founded in 1982, its main area of activity being the sale of petroleum products. The company s key asset as it entered this sector was its liquid fuel storage facility on the island of Chios. The year 1995 was a milestone in the company s development; it was in this year that it was purchased by its current shareholders. Up until 1995 most of the company s revenues came from the provision of services, especially the storage of liquid fuels, owned by other companies, at its plant on the island of Chios. But when it was taken over in May 1995 the new shareholders were determined to boost the company s profile in the sale of petroleum products by developing a network of gas stations, increasing market share, expanding and modernizing the liquid fuel storage and distribution facilities on Chios, reorganizing and modernizing the entire management structure of the company and, finally, improving its financial results. The aggressive policy of wooing new service stations in the fiercely competitive petroleum products sector proved highly effective. Since May 1995 the company has built up a broad network of 421 service stations, spread right across Greece, all displaying the REVOIL colors and brand names. In 1996 the company decided to expand and modernize its facilities on Chios and proceeded to purchase land covering about 3,500 sq. m. The project was completed by the end of 1997 at a cost of 2,934,700 Euro (1 billion drachmas). It involved the construction of six new liquid fuel storage tanks, a liquid fuel pipeline, contemporary buildings to house management services, a fuel pumping complex, firefighting facilities, a jetty and state-of-the-art electronic tanker-loading systems. Up until 2001 the company had twelve liquid fuel storage tanks at the above facilities, with a capacity of 6,080 cubic meters. As a sign of its environmental sensitivity, and in line with measures required by the European Union, it also installed a bottom-loading system to avoid any leaking of gases and vapors into the atmosphere In 1997 the company s expanding business led to the purchase of about 40,000 sq. m. of land at Nea Karvali, Kavala, for the construction of new storage and distribution facilities. This is a location regarded as being of considerable strategic importance, with excellent prospects for growth. Work began on the new facilities in August 1999 and was completed in September 2000, at a cost of about 5,869,400 Euro (2 billion DRM). The project involved construction of ten storage tanks with a total capacity of 9,500 cubic meters, laying of supply lines both above ground and under the sea, construction of contemporary buildings to house management services, the installation of a fuel pumping system, firefighting services and state-of-the-art electronic loading systems. This facility, too, is fully automated, using bottom loading procedures, and fully compliant with EU environmental protection specifications. In December 2000 the REVOIL head office relocated to new company-owned premises in Vari, Attica, which house all the administrative services. The new offices were built at a cost of 586,900 Euro (200M drachmas). The company also received ISO environmental management certification for these new premises. In recent years the company has been gradually reorganizing its management structure, laying special emphasis on the ongoing training of staff, the introduction of new technologies and the computerization of all operations. The result has been a new and flexible organizational structure, with better communication both vertically and horizontally, and a new emphasis on team work. In May 2002 an expansion plan was initiated for the Nea Karvali facility, with the construction of 7 storage tanks with a capacity of 27,000 cubic meters. In October 2003 the expansion work was completed, increasing total storage capacity to 35,900 cubic meters. The company management intends to seek ISO environmental management certification for this facility, too. The company s Chios facility, expanded and modernized, now has 12 storage tanks with a capacity of 7,048 cubic meters, a contemporary jetty and anchorage for unloading ships and an environmentally friendly system of tanker loading which ensures no petrol fumes are released into the atmosphere. In 2004 the company entered the Greek Stock Exchange market. In 2005 began the collaboration with National Technical University of Athens for quality controls. In 2006 the company was awarded the certification ISO for the Kavala premises. In 2007 the market share of Revoil exceeds 5% for the first time. In 2008 are implemented for the first time in Greece quantity controls in cooperation with National Technical University of Athens. In 2009 Revoil doubled its earnings and decreased its loans substantially and the number of its filling stations increased to 423. Source: The Company

4 /13 PORTFOLIO OF PRODUCTS Motor fuels: Unleaded Petrol LRP, Unleaded Petrol of 95 and 100 Octanes and Lead Replacement petrol. Transportation oil: REVOIL has launched Dieselmax which combines efficiency, economy with environmental care. Heating oil: Revoil s suggestion for heating oil is Oikoplus (Smart Heating) which combines increase in efficiency, energy saving, decrease in transmission of filth. Lubricants: The company has recently launched Revolution, a new series of lubricants which is designed to cover the specs of the big car manufacturers and of the international organizations. Thus they are able to provide efficient lubrication and protection of the machines and the mechanisms in which they are used. FILLING STATION NETWORK DISTRIBUTION AREA STATIONS PERCENTAGE ATTICA 66 15,68% MACEDONIA 97 23,04% PELOPONNESE 82 19,48% STEREA ELLADA 75 17,81% THESSALIA 44 10,45% AEGEAN ISLANDS 11 2,61% EPIRUS 17 4,04% THRACE 23 5,46% IONIAN ISLANDS 6 1,43% Source: The Company FIL.STATIONS FIL.STATIONS Source: The Company

5 EKO SHELL BP JET OIL AVIN AIGAIO ELINOIL REVOIL ETEKA SILK OIL CYCLON DRACOIL KAOIL SECTOR ANALYSIS 5/13 Domestic Production of Crude. Production of crude oil in Greece is extremely limited. The Prinos reserves at Kavala cover less than 1% of domestic demand and consequently nearly all of the country s needs in crude oil is covered by imports. Structure of the Domestic Market. Once processed in domestic refining units, crude oil products are exported or sold in the domestic market. With the exception of a small number of Big End Customers and the Armed Forces for which product delivery is done directly from the premises of the domestic refineries, the distribution of oil products in the domestic market is carried out exclusively through the fuel trading companies which deliver the products to the gas outlets, the industry, the households etc.the domestic market consists of four refineries (3 owned by ELPE and 1 by Motor Oil) and around 20 retail oil companies. The competition is great since there is 1 filling station for 1400 residents while the average of the EU is 1 filling station for 3800 residents. Recent Developments in the sector and Revoil s position. Great changes have recently taken place in the Greek retail oil market. The Greek retail oil market is no longer considered attractive by big multinationals which have gradually abandoned the Greek market in the recent past (Mobil in 1998, Total in 1999, Texaco in 2000, BP and Shell in 2009). Lower prices and lower operational costs have lead to an increase in the market share of the Greek companies. Each of the two big Greek companies (ELPE and Motor Οil) own 2 brands and have the lion s share in the Greek market. However, the medium and small size Greek companies benefited from the gradual exit of the big multinationals because some filling station owners were required to change brand by the competition committee due to overlapping. Around filling stations from the total of 8200 of Greece are likely to move to another brand. The difficult economic background of the sector also lead two small companies to abandon the market. The current market size exceeds 10M metric tons and 14B (2008 estimations). In 2009 a decrease in total sales in took place because of the drop in the price of fuels despite the increase in volumes of sales while in 2010 the new taxation and the increased price of oil in the global markets will probably lead to an increase in sales in and a decrease in volumes. Revoil s current market share is 6,5% and is 8 th among the companies of the sector in Greece. This is a significant improvement in comparison to the 4,2% of The company s gross margin is a bit lower than the sector s (3,5% versus 4,7% for 2008) but it is able to offer competitive prices which is a factor that enhances the volume of sales. Nevertheless, Revoil s net margin is higher than the sector was a bad year for the profitability of the sector with negative EATAM of 2,5M versus EATAM of 100M in The first results for 2009 indicate that there was an increase in the profitability ofthe sector during the past year accompanied by higher gross margin. MARKET SHARES IN THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF ,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 MARKET SHARE (8-MONTH OF 2009) MARKET SHARE (8- MONTH OF 2009) SALES AND EARNINGS OF 2008 IN Source: Merit Research, Icap. COMPANY SALES IN M EBT IN M 1 EKO 2285,94 2,32 2 SHELL 1856, BP 1397,52 14,78 4 JETOIL 1281,05 2,23 5 AEGEAN 1127,31 1,5 6 AVIN 1019,05 2,53 7 ELINOIL 743,92 1,74 8 REVOIL 571,99 2,12 9 ETEKA 533,34 0,72 10 CYCLON 399,24 3,67 11 SILK OIL 348,76 0,91 12 EL PETROL* 219,82 13 KAOIL 206,96 0,09 14 DRACOIL 204,31-1,98 15 SUNOIL 123,88-3,18 *El Petrol closed down in 2009.

6 SALES IN METRIC TONS 6/13 BRAND QUANTITY IN M.T. MARKET SHARE QUANTITY IN M.T. MARKET SHARE QUANTITY IN M.T. MARKET SHARE % (6 months) 1 EKO 1762,12 17,00% 1686,13 16,51% 838,13 15,45 2 BP 1622,3 15,65% 1443,18 14,13% 692,43 12,76 3 SHELL 1469,27 14,18% 1361,61 13,33% 746,33 13,75 4 AEGEAN 825,81 7,97% 840,48 8,23% 469,27 8,65 5 AVIN 850,39 8,21% 834,07 8,17% 443,7 8,18 6 JET OIL 772,53 7,45% 811,19 7,94% 443,38 8,17 7 ELINOIL 617,93 5,96% 644,15 6,31% 347,38 6,4 8 REVOIL 527,16 5,09% 566,98 5,55% 342,7 6,32 9 ETEKA 396,63 3,83% 432,99 4,24% 248,26 4,58 10 SILK OIL 329,59 3,18% 338,75 3,32% 199,95 3,68 11 CYCLON 278,99 2,69% 278,99 2,73% 176,56 3,25 12 DRACOIL 217,32 2,10% 217,33 2,13% 146,18 2,69 13 KAOIL 214,52 2,07% 214,53 2,10% 121,98 2,25 14 EL PETROL 179,85 1,74% 179,85 1,76% 11 0,2 15 SUN OIL 126,66 1,22% 126,66 1,24% 28,11 0,52 16 OTHERS 238,04 2,30% 238,04 2,33% 170,74 3,15 Source: The company, Seepe PEER GROUP ANALYSIS Direct peers of Revoil are the Greek companies Elinoil and Cyclon and the Cypriot Petrolina. We also include some big multinational companies whose businesses cover the entire oil chain (refineries, crude oil production, transportation, marketing, retail etc. Revoil s current P/E ratio (2009 earnings) is 7,5 which is much lower (48.1%) than the weighted average P/E of the peer companies whose high value (14,46) depicts the difficult year that the petroleum industry experienced during COMPANY COUNTRY MARKET CAP IN 12/3 in M P/E ELINOIL GREECE 49,1 12,4 CYCLON GREECE 18,0 32,1 PETROLINA CYPRUS 46,4 6,02 STATOIL NORWAY 54590,0 23,9 NESTE FINLAND 3181,0 14,37 LOTOS POLAND 978,8 4,19 ORLEN POLAND 3972,3 11,81 GALP ENERGIA PORTUGAL 10386,0 29,82 ENI ITALY 70294,0 14,04 ELPE GREECE 2655,0 15,2 MOH GREECE 1170,0 13,25 NORTHERN PET. NETHERLANDS ,8 11,64 TOTAL FRANCE ,0 11,34 SHELL UK ,5 14,31 BP UK ,5 10,61 EXXON MOBIL US ,3 16,76 REPSOL SPAIN 21938,0 14,01 Source: Bloomberg consensus estimations

7 FUELS 7/13 Revoil offers a complete series of motor fuels and heating oil: Motor Fuels: Revoil distributes Unleaded Petrol LRP (Lead Replacement Petrol) and Unleaded Petrol of 95 and 100 Octanes. Sales of petrol increased moderately by 4.84% during 2009 and now constitute the 45% of total sales versus 43% for Transportation oil. Revoil has launched Dieselmax which combines efficiency and economy with environmental care. More specifically, provides a combination of ingredients such as anti-corrosion, antioxidant and anti-foam. -Increase in combustion efficiency, improvement of inflammation quality and better cold start. -Decrease in petrol consumption up to 7%, increase in engine life, significant decrease in maintenance cost and better check during the filling procedure. -Drastic decrease in atmospheric pollution, incombustible particles, smokes and in engine noise by 2db. Dieselmax also participates in the program of checks of National Technical University of Athens in order to guarantee the quality. Sales of transportation oil decreased by 18% in 2009 and now constitute only the 24,5% of total sales whereas the margin increased substantially. Heating oil. Revoil s suggestion for heating oil is Oikoplus (Smart Heating) which combines increase in efficiency, energy saving, decrease in air pollution and better check during the tank filling. It is therefore the most modern offer for a perfect combustion. The new product of Revoil in the heating oil category was the main reason for the significant increase in sales of this category for 2009 (19%).Heating oil sales currently constitute 30% of total Revoil s sales. The gross margins of these products are not seriously affected by the volatility in the price of crude oil which has been recently very intense since the margin is steady in Euros and not as a percentage. They are likely to be negatively affected by the new taxation that has been introduced during the first three months of 2010 by the government. The average price of unleaded petrol increased from 1,1 in the beginning of 2010 to 1,43 currently while the average price of diesel increased from 1,06 to 1,21 per lt. Sales in Euros will be positively affected by taxation despite a potential decrease in consumer s purchase power and therefore a decrease in sales, expressed in volumes. The fact that the average crude oil price is expected to be higher in 2010 than 2009 (62,1) will also positively affect sales in. In the first 70 days of 2010 average price of crude oil is $77,75. According to Bloomberg consensus estimations the average price of crude oil will be increasing till The company s prediction for increase in volume of sales is moderate, at 8% for the next three years. AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICE OF CRUDE OIL IN USD 140,00 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 0,00 Source :Bloomberg ESTIMATION FOR FUTURE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL Source :Bloomberg

8 LUBRICANTS 8/13 The company has recently launched Revolution,a new series of lubricants which is designed to cover the specs of the big car manufacturers and of the international organizations. Thus they are able to provide efficient lubrication and protection of the machines and the mechanisms in which they are used. The lubricants can be categorized as follows: -Gas Engine Lubricants: Revolution Synthesis, Revolution Formula Syn etc. - Scooter and Motorbikes Lubricants: Revolution Moto 4 Syn, Moto 4 Plus,Outboard etc. -Diesel Engines Lubricants: Diesel Ultra Syn, Extra SAE, Diesel Mac etc. -Tractors Lubricants: Agro Trans 9, Agro S.T.O.U. -Differential Gear Lubricants-Valvolines: Synthetic Gear, Super Gear etc. -Automatic gearbox Lubricants: ATF 2 and 3, Transmission oil. -Greases: Extralab Grease, Lithium Grease, Cotton Picker Grease. -Industry Lubricants: Circulation System Oil, Hydraulic Oil, turbine oil etc: -Other Products: Antifreeze Fluid, Radiator Fluid, Brake Fluid, Windscreen cleaner,battery Fluid etc. Sales of lubricants increased in 2009 by 18% enhanced by the launching of Revolution series while the gross margin of lubricants sales remained high at 40.5%. Sales of lubricants are expected to increase further in 2010 enhanced by the agreement with Exxon Mobil for the distribution ofthe lubricant series Mobil 1. GEOGRAPHICAL SEGMENTATION Revoil is also active in the Bulgarian market. Revoil does not own any filling stations in Bulgaria for the moment but collaborates with local companies that import fuels from abroad and distribute them in the filling station network DOMESTIC SALES 570,45 569,6 SALES ABROAD 10,63 2,39 PRODUCT SEGMENTATION Sales in M Source: The Company TABLE OF SALES PER PRODUCT CATEGORY SALES GROSS PROFIT MARGIN SALES GROSS PROFIT MARGIN SALES GROSS PROFIT MARGIN SALES GROSS PROFIT MARGIN SALES GROSS PROFIT MARGIN MOTOR FUELS 153,1 5,87 3,83% 191,78 7,19 3,75% 210,97 7,6 3,60% 247,87 8,36 3,37% 259,87 10,06 3,87% TRANSPORTATION OIL 84,02 3,96 4,71% 108,53 4,85 4,47% 109,28 4,98 4,56% 147,65 4,41 2,99% 175,62 6,28 3,58% HEATING OIL 70,78 3,17 4,48% 106,46 4,26 4% 121,85 4,94 4,05% 173,39 5,9 3,40% 142,18 6,3 4,49% LUBRICANTS 0,81 0,27 33,33% 1,17 0,42 35,90% 1,19 0,44 36,97% 1,52 0,59 38,82% 1,8 0,73 40,56%

9 9/13 VALUATION We make explicit estimates about the revenues that Revoil is expected to generate over the next 5 years. We initiate the coverage of Revoil with a BUY recommendation since our Discounted Cash Flows Model derives a target price of 1,8 per share, revealing an upside of 75% from the current price level. The long term growth rate is estimated at 0.5%. We estimate beta at 1,1, assume a long-term risk free rate of 4.5% and expect the debt portion to decline finally to only 3% of total capital structure in order to derive a long term WACC of 10.5%. The enterprise value of the group according to our estimates is 37M. The net value of the group after the subtraction of the net debt and the minorities rights becomes 40.2M. The group s stock price is currently around its 200 day moving average. The following tables present the calculation of the FCFF we discount in our model for the next five years, the calculation of the target price per share and a sensitivity analysis illustrating how the target price changes according to different assumptions regarding the long term growth rate and the long term WACC for the group. VALUATION in 000 CASH FLOW STATEMENT 2014 F Turnover EBIT Less: Adjusted Tax NOPAT Plus: Depreciation Less: Change in Working Capital Less: Capex Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) Present Value of Future Cash Flows Present Value of Residual Value Value of firm Less: Net Debt Minorities 0 Value of firm Current Price 1,03 Value of share 1,80 % upside potential 75,23% SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LT WACC PERPETUITY SALES GROWTH 1,80-0,50% 0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 8% 2,15 2,26 2,37 2,50 2,65 9% 1,94 2,02 2,10 2,20 2,31 10% 1,77 1,83 1,89 1,97 2,05 10,5% 1,69 1,75 1,80 1,87 1,94 11% 1,63 1,68 1,73 1,79 1,85 12% 1,51 1,55 1,59 1,64 1,69

10 MAJOR NUMBERS AND INDICES 10/13 Current Price 1, A 2014 F Current No of Shares (,000) P/E (x) 12,31 15,75 7,54 6,46 5,29 4,56 4,23 3,51 P/Sales (x) 0,05 0,04 0,04 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 P/BV (x) 1,04 0,99 0,89 0,82 0,75 0,67 0,61 0,54 EPS ( ) 0,08 0,07 0,14 0,16 0,19 0,23 0,24 0,29 EPS growth (%) -21,8% 108,9% 16,8% 22,0% 16,0% 7,9% 20,6% PEG (x) -0,72 0,07 0,38 0,24 0,29 0,53 0,17 Operating CFPS ( ) 0,28 0,16 0,69 0,21 0,30 0,36 0,34 0,43 FCFF / Share ( ) 0,24 0,03 0,56 0,05 0,15 0,17 0,15 0,22 Dividend / Share ( ) 0,01 0,01 0,07 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,10 Dividend Yield (%) 1,2% 0,5% 6,6% 6,2% 6,6% 7,7% 8,3% 10,0% ROE (%) 9,6% 7,5% 14,6% 15,7% 17,7% 18,8% 18,5% 20,1% EV/Sales (x) 0,06 0,04 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,02 0,02 EV/EBITDA (x) 4,33 3,73 1,95 2,56 2,44 2,26 2,09 1,66 Net Debt / Equity (x) 0,15-0,12-0,41-0,17-0,09-0,11-0,13-0,18 Current Ratio (x) 0,84 0,95 1,00 0,92 0,91 0,93 0,50 0,52 INCOME STATEMENT (,000) 2009 A 2014 F Total Τurnover COGS Gross Profit Other Operating Income SG&A Expenses EBIT Depreciation EBITDA Interest Expense (767) (780) (266) (197) (276) EBT Taxes Minorities EATAM CASH FLOW (,000) 2009 A 2014 F Cash flow from Operations Cash Flow from Investment Net Cash Flow from Financing BALANCE SHEET (,000) 2009 A 2014 F Total Non-Current Assets Inventory Receivables Total Cash Total Current Assets Total Assets Long Term Bank Loans Non Current Liabilities Short Term Banks Current Liabilities Equity Total Equity & Liabilities MARGIN ANALYSIS % 2009 A 2014 F Gross Profit 4,5% 3,6% 4,3% 4,1% 4,2% 4,2% 4,2% 4,3% SG&A Expenses 3,8% 3,3% 3,7% 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% 3,5% EBITDA 1,4% 1,0% 1,3% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% EBT 0,6% 0,4% 0,7% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 0,9% EAT&Minorites 0,4% 0,3% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,7% 0,7% Tax rate 31,0% 31,4% 29,8% 24,0% 23,0% 22,0% 21,0% 20,0% Source: MERIT SECURITIES, Company Financial Data REVOIL Α.Ε.Ε.Π. (Cons) 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 0,10 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0,00 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% EPS ( ) FCFF PS ( ) DPS ( ) ROE (%) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) EATAM Margin (%)

11 11/13 Glossary Abbreviatons AGM: Annual General Meeting CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate CFPS: Cash Flow per Share COGS: Costs of Goods Sold DPS: Dividends per Share EAT: Earnings after Taxes EATAM: Earnings after Taxes and Minorities rights EBIT: Earnings before Interest and Taxes EBITDA: Earnings before Interest and Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization EBT: Earnings before Taxes EPS: Earnings per Share EV: Enterprise Value FCFF: Free Cash Flows to the Firm fx: Foreign Exchange LT-WACC: Long-term Weighted Average Cost of Capital NOPAT: Net Operating Profits After Taxes P/BV: Price to Book Value P/E, PE: Price to Earnings ratio PEG: Price/Earnings to Growth ratio ROE: Return on Equity SG&A: Selling, General and Administrative ttm: Trailing Twelve Months WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital ΔNWC: Change in Net Working Capital

12 12/13 Notes WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) Calculation WACC = Re*(E/D+E) + Rd*(D/D+E) Re (Cost of equity) = Rf + β*(rm-rf) Rf = Risk free rate β= Beta factor Rd = Cost of debt E = Market value of Equity D = Book value of Debt FCFF (Free Cash Flow to the Firm) Calculation FCFF = EBIT(1-tax rate) + Dep.- Net CAPEX - ΔNWC Dep. = Depreciation Net CAPEX = Net Capital Expenditures NWC = Inventories + Receivables Current (non-bearing interest) Liabilities Years Perpetuity Value of the Firm = FCFF1 FCFF2 FCFF3 FCFF4 FCFF5 FCFF5(1+g) (1+WACC) (1+WACC) 2 (1+WACC) 3 (1+WACC) 4 (1+WACC) 5 (WACC-g) (1+WACC) 5 Value of the Firm - Debt 0 = Value of Equity g = perpetual growth rate of FCFF

13 Investment Ratings BUY (5/5): The difference between the stock s current price and its estimated target price is +30% ACCUMULATE (4/5): The difference between the stock s current price and its estimated target price ranges between *+10% and +30%) HOLD (3/5): The difference between the stock s current price and its estimated target price ranges between (-10% and +10%) AVOID (2/5): The difference between the stock s current price and its estimated target price ranges between *-10% and -30%) REDUCE (1/5): The difference between the stock s current price and its estimated target price is -30% Disclaimer This report has been prepared and issued by MERIT Securities SA which is regulated by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and is subject to the rules of conduct applicable to investment firms (EPEYs) as established under Greek regulations. This report has been issued by MERIT Securities SA and may not be reproduced in any manner or provided to any other persons. Each person that receives a copy by acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it will not distribute or provide itto any other person. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but MERIT Securities SA has not verified it. The opinions expressed herein may not necessarily coincide with those of any member of MERIT Securities SA. No presentation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness, and timeliness of fairness of the information or opinions herein, all of which are subject to change without notice. No responsibility or liability what so ever or how so ever arising is accepted in relation other contents herein by MERIT Securities SA or any of its directors, officers or employees. This report is not an offer to buy or to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. MERIT Securities SA and others associated with it may have positions in, and may affect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein. MERIT Securities SA and/or its associated group companies or a person or persons connected with the company may from time to time act on their own account in transactions covered in its research reports. MERIT Securities SA may do and may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm might have a conflict of interest that could affect the impartiality of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The investment discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors, depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. At the date of the issuance of this report (mentioned in the first page of the report) MERIT Securities SA acts as a market maker for the following securities: Viohalko S.A., F.H.L. H. Kyriakidis Marbles Granites S.A., Elastron S.A., Sciens S.A., Byte Computer S.A., Centric S.A., Alpha Grissin S.A., ETEM S.A. At the date of the issuance of this report (mentioned in the first page of the report), none of the subject companies mentioned in this report owns more than 5% of MERIT Securities SA or any of its affiliated companies. MERIT Securities SA may have received compensation from the company for financial advisory services during the past 12 months. MERIT Securities SA has not received compensation from the company for the preparation of the research report. Analyst Certification The analyst responsible for the content of this research report (in whole or in part), certifies that a) all the views about the companies and securities contained in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the respective author and b) no part of our compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or view of this report. The author of this report may have held or hold in the future shares of the company covered in its research reports. The analyst or at least one of the analysts mentioned in this report are Certified as Analyst of Equities and the Market by the Hellenic Capital Market Commission.

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