Modèles DSGE Nouveaux Keynésiens, Monnaie et Aversion au Risque.
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1 Modèles DSGE Nouveaux Keynésiens, Monnaie et Aversion au Risque. Jonathan Benchimol To cite this version: Jonathan Benchimol. Modèles DSGE Nouveaux Keynésiens, Monnaie et Aversion au Risque.. Economies and finances. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 211. English. <tel > HAL Id: tel Submitted on 23 Feb 212 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
2 Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne U.F.R de Sciences Économiques Numéro attribué par la bibliothèque THÈSE Pour obtenir le grade de Docteur de l Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne Discipline : Sciences Economiques Présentée et soutenue publiquement par Jonathan Benchimol le 9 décembre 211 MODÈLES DSGE NOUVEAUX KEYNÉSIENS, MONNAIE ET AVERSION AU RISQUE. Co-directeur de thèse : M. Christian Bordes, Professeur à l Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne Co-directeur de thèse : M. André Fourçans, Professeur à l ESSEC Business School JURY Christian Bordes (Co-directeur), Professeur à l Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne André Fourçans (Co-directeur), Professeur à l ESSEC Business School Laurent Clerc (Rapporteur), Directeur de la Stabilité Financière à la Banque de France Marc-Alexandre Sénégas (Rapporteur), Professeur à l Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV Gunther Capelle-Blancard (Président du jury), Professeur à l Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne Directeur-adjoint du CEPII
3 L Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne n entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans la thèse ; ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leur auteur.
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33 6 Output 14 Inflation Q1 76Q3 82Q1 87Q3 93Q1 98Q4 4Q2 9Q4 71Q1 76Q3 82Q1 87Q3 93Q1 98Q4 4Q2 9Q4 1 Real Money Balances 2 Interest Rates Q1 76Q3 82Q1 87Q3 93Q1 98Q4 4Q2 9Q4 71Q1 76Q3 82Q1 87Q3 93Q1 98Q4 4Q2 9Q4
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36 .2 Preference Shock Technolog y Shock -.3 Interest Rate Shock 1 Money Shock Quarters 2 4 Quarters Quarters 2 4 Quarters
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38 8 Output 1 Inflation Preference Shock Interest Rate Shock Money Shock Technology Shock Interest Rate 8 Real Money Balances Quarter Quarter
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42 .2 Preference Shock Technolog y Shock -.3 Interest Rate Shock.2 Risk Aversion Shock Quarters 2 4 Quarters Quarters 2 4 Quarters
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44 6 Output 1 Inflation Risk Aversion Shock Preference Shock Interest Rate Shock Technology Shock Interest Rate 6 Real Money Balances Flexible-Price Output 8 Flexible-Price Interest Rate Quarter Quarter
45 1 Output Real money balances Initial values Technology Shock Interest Rate Shock Preference Shock Risk Aversion Shock
46 4 Flexible-price output Flexible-price interest rate Initial values Technology Shock Interest Rate Shock Preference Shock Risk Aversion Shock
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51 8 Interval x 1 4 m x 1 4 m x 1 4
52 9 Interval m2 x m3 x x 1 4
53 .3 Technology Shock.4 Preference Shock Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q4.2 Interest Rate Shock.6 Money Shock Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q4
54 .2 Technology Shock.4 Preference Shock Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q4.2 Interest Rate Shock.1 Risk Aversion Shock Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q Q1 84Q4 89Q4 94Q4 99Q4 4Q4 9Q4
55 SE_ua SE_ui SE_up SE_um alphan beta teta nu gamma khi li li li rhoa 3 2 rhop rhoi rhom
56 SE_ua SE_un SE_ui SE_up 15 beta 1 alphan teta nu gamma khi li1 li li3 rhoa rhon rhop 15 rhoi
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77 .2 Preference Shock Technology Shock.1 Money Shock -.2 Interest Rate Shock Quarters 2 4 Quarters 2 4 Quarters Quarters
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80 8 Decreasing Return to Scale Constant Return to Scale Preference Shock Interest Rate Shock Money Shock Technology Shock Quarter
81 1 Decreasing Return to Scale Constant Return to Scale Preference Shock Interest Rate Shock Money Shock Technology Shock Quarter
82 1 Decreasing Return to Scale Constant Return to Scale Preference Shock Interest Rate Shock Money Shock Technology Shock Quarter
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89 SE_ua SE_ui SE_up SE_um alphan alpham teta 4 nu 4 sigma gamma khi li li2 li3 rhoa rhop rhoi rhom
90 SE_ua SE_ui SE_up SE_um alphan teta nu sigma gamma khi li1 li li3 rhoa rhop rhoi rhom
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107 12 Inflation 6 Output Nominal Interest Rate Real Money Balances σ = 2 σ = 4 Historical Data
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109 8 σ = σ = Preference Shock 2 Interest Rate Shock 1 Money Shock Technology Shock Quarter
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111 1 σ = 2 5 Initial Values σ = 4 Techn. Shock Money Shock Interest Rate Shock Pref. Shock
112 4 σ = σ =
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120 SE_ua SE_ui SE_up SE_um alpha teta vega b neta epsilon li1 li li3 rhoa rhop rhoi rhom
121 SE_ua SE_ui SE_up SE_um alpha teta vega b neta epsilon li1 li li3 rhoa rhop rhoi rhom
122 8.5 Interval x 1 4 m x 1 4 m x 1 4
123 8 Interval m2 x m3 x x 1 4
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125 Preference Shock Technology Shock Money Shock Interest Rate Shock Quarters 2 4 Quarters 2 4 Quarters 2 4 Quarters
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141 2.1 2 Risk Aversion 1.9 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q Money Growth parameter on Inflation.5 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Expected Money Growth parameter on Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Expected Money Growth Shock parameter on Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Money parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Money Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Smoothing coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Inflation coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Output coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Real Interest Rate parameter on Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Technology Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q Firms Reoptimizing Optimally their Prices 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4
142 Role of Money on Output 1 5 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Money on Flexible-Price Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 5 Role of Monetary Policy on Output 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Monetary Policy on Inflation Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Real Money Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Technology on Output 1 5 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Technology on Inflation.4.2 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Preference on Output Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Preference on Inflation 2 1 9Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Preference on Interest Rates Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4 Role of Preference on Real Money Q1 9Q4 91Q4 92Q4 93Q4
143 .4.3 Comparison of output and inflation DSGE forecast errors Positive bar: Non-Separable model is better Negative bar: Baseline model is better Inflation Output Q2 9Q3 9Q4 91Q1 91Q2 91Q3 91Q4 92Q1 92Q2 92Q3 92Q4
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145 Risk Aversion 1.9 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Expected Money Growth Shock parameter on Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q Money Growth parameter on Inflation.5 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q Money parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Expected Money Growth parameter on Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Money Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Smoothing coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Inflation coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Output coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Real Interest Rate parameter on Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Technology Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Firms Reoptimizing Optimally their Prices Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4
146 Role of Money on Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Money on Flexible-Price Output 1 5 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Monetary Policy on Output 4 2 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Monetary Policy on Inflation Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Real Money 5 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Technology on Output Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4.5 Role of Technology on Inflation Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Preference on Output 2 1 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Preference on Inflation 1 5 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Preference on Interest Rates Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 Role of Preference on Real Money 2 1 Q1 Q4 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4
147 .9.8 Comparison of output and inflation DSGE forecast errors Positive bar: Non-Separable model is better Negative bar: Baseline model is better Inflation Output Q2 Q3 Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 2Q1 2Q2 2Q3 2Q4
148 Risk Aversion Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Money Growth 1 x parameter on Inflation Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Expected Money Growth parameter on Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Expected Money Growth Shock parameter on Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Money parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Money Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Smoothing coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Inflation coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Output coefficient (Taylor Rule) Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Real Interest Rate parameter on Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Technology Shock parameter on Flexible-Price Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Firms Reoptimizing Optimally their Prices Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4
149 Role of Money on Output 2 1 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Money on Flexible-Price Output 2 1 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 5 Role of Monetary Policy on Output 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Monetary Policy on Inflation Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Output Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Technology on Flexible-Price Real Money 4 2 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Technology on Output 1 5 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Technology on Inflation.4.2 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Preference on Output 2 1 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Preference on Inflation 2 1 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Preference on Interest Rates Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4 Role of Preference on Real Money 2 1 6Q1 6Q4 7Q4 8Q4 9Q4
150 .8.6 Comparison of output and inflation DSGE forecast errors Positive bar: Non-Separable model is better Negative bar: Baseline model is better Inflation Output Q2 6Q3 6Q4 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4
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152 5 4 Role of Money on Output 1x(EURIBOR-BTF) 1x(EURIBOR-Bubill) Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q2 9Q4
153 5 4 Role of Monetary Policy on Output 1x(EURIBOR-BTF) 1x(EURIBOR-Bubill) Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q2 9Q4
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158 -6 ERM Crisis Modified Harmonic Mean -6 ERM Crisis Laplace Approximation Q1 9Q3 91Q1 91Q3 92Q1 92Q3 93Q2 93Q4-12 9Q1 9Q3 91Q1 91Q3 92Q1 92Q3 93Q2 93Q4-9 Dot-com Crisis Modified Harmonic Mean -9 Dot-com Crisis Laplace Approximation Q1 Q3 1Q1 1Q3 2Q1 2Q3 3Q2 3Q4-11 Q1 Q3 1Q1 1Q3 2Q1 2Q3 3Q2 3Q4-12 Subprime Crisis Modified Harmonic Mean -13 Subprime Crisis Laplace Approximation Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q2 9Q4-15 6Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q2 9Q4
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