A CRASH COURSE IN STAYING AFLOAT IN A SINKING ECONOMY. David Wiedemer, PhD. Robert A. Wiedemer. Cindy Spitzer

Transcription

1 The Aftershock Investor, Second Edition A CRASH COURSE IN STAYING AFLOAT IN A SINKING ECONOMY David Wiedemer, PhD Robert A. Wiedemer Cindy Spitzer WILEY

2 Contents Acknowledgments Introduction XI xili Chapter 1 Chapter 2 This "Recovery" Is 100 Percent Fake Isn't a Fake Recovery Better than No Recovery at All? If the Aftershock Has Not Been Canceled, Why Hasn't It Happened Yet? Still Not Sure This Recovery Is 100 Percent Fake? Don't Believe the Stimulus Has to Eventually End? There Is a Limit to What the Government Can Do Wondering Why the Aftershock Hasn't Happened Already? "Animal Spirits" Are Keeping Us Going Please Prepare Now Part I: Aftershock Bubblequake and Aftershock A Quick Review of How We Got Here and What's Next Not Asleep with the Sheep Bubblequake! First, a Rising Bubble Economy; Now, a Falling Bubble Economy Future Inflation Will Cause Rising Interest Rates From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral v

3 vi Contents Why Don't Most Conventional Investors See This Coming? 52 What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 53 Chapter 3 Aftershock Update: They Read Our Playbook The World Is Printing Money 54 Central Banks Gone Wild 54 Economists Continue to Ignore the Risks of Money Printing 57 Why Isn't Inflation Higher Now? 60 Even Before We Get High Inflation, Other Potential Triggers Could Accelerate a Downtrend in the U.S. Economy 64 Chapter 4 The Market Cliff 73 The Market Cliff Won't Be Just a "Down Cycle" 73 Hitting the Market Cliff 77 The Last Resort: A Stock Market Holiday 81 When Is the Best Time to Get Out of the Stock Market? 84 Chapter 5 Conventional Wisdom Won't Work This Time 87 The Key to Conventional Wisdom: The Future Will Be Just Like the Past 89 The Myth of a Natural Growth Rate 91 Real Productivity Growth Is Slowing Down, Here and Around the World 93 Warren Buffett: Master of Conventional Wisdom 95 The Key to Aftershock Wisdom Investing: The Future Is Not the Past! 99 This Debate Is Really Not about Inflation or Deflation, It's All about Protecting the Status Quo with Denial 106 Part II: Aftershock Investing Chapter 6 Taking Stock of Stocks 117 Stocks: A Love Story " "I 8

4 Contents vii How Stocks Became the Heart of Most Investment Portfolios 122 In Theory, When You Buy Stocks You Are Buying Future Earnings 123 Conventional Wisdom on Stocks 130 Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong Now 134 What's a Sawy Aftershock Investor to Do? 138 Chapter 7 Bye-Bye Bonds 141 How Do Bonds Make Money? "Total Return" Is the Key 142 Conventional Wisdom on Bonds: The Safety of the Recent Past Means We Can Count on More Safety Ahead 148 Why Conventional Wisdom on Bonds Is Wrong Now 151 Bonds Will Fall in Four Stages 156 What's a Sawy Aftershock Investor to Do? 160 The Bottom Line for Bonds 163 Chapter 8 Getting Real about Real Estate 165 Real Estate Is Still a Bubble 166 What Really Drives Real Estate Prices? 167 After the Fundamental Drivers of Real Estate Began to Slow, the Bubble Started to Rise 169 Why Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate Is Wrong 171 What's a Sawy Aftershock Investor to Do? 176 Timing Your Exits Out of Real Estate 189 The High Cost of Doing Nothing 192 Chapter 9 Future Threats to the Safety Nets 193 All Insurance and Annuities Are Essentially Investments in Bonds 194 Conventional Wisdom on Whole Life Insurance and Annuities: Perfectly Safe and Worth Every Penny! 195 Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong: Facing the Real 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room 201 What's a Sawy Aftershock Investor to Do? 205

5 viii Contents Chapter 10 Gold Gold Was Golden for Centuries Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold as an Investment: Stay Away! Why Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold Is Wrong What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? How to Buy Gold Owning Gold as Part of a Well-Diversified Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio How High Will Gold Go? Part III: Your Aftershock Game Plan Chapter 11 Aftershock Jobs and Businesses 239 The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs 240 Conventional Wisdom about Future Jobs Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past 241 Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong 243 What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 244 The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impacts on Three Broad Economic Sectors 247 Should I Go to College? 257 Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets 257 Chapter 12 Aftershock Money Smarts 260 Don't Let Spending Become the Achilles Heel of Your Aftershock Preparations 260 Savings: How Much Is Enough? 264 Borrowing Money before, during, and after the Aftershock 269 Saving and Borrowing for College 274 Summing It Up 278

6 Contents ix Chapter 13 Aftershock Retirement and Estate Planning 280 Why Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Is Wrong 282 What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 285 Should I Use a Retirement Calculator to See if I am on the Right Track? 291 Should I Take Social Security Early? 292 Estate Planning: Making the Most of Your Assets for Yourself and Your Heirs 292 A Good Retirement 295 Chapter 14 Your Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio 297 This Economy Is Evolving Your Investments Should Evolve, Too 298 The Three Goals of an Actively Managed Aftershock Investment Portfolio 299 Creating Your Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio 302 Active Portfolio Management: Timing Is Everything 311 Warning: Active Management of Short Term Investments is Riddled with Potential Danger 318 Better to Move Too Early than Too Late 319 Government Intervention Makes Active Portfolio Management More Difficult 320 Do It Yourself or Bring In Help? 322 The Bottom Line 323 Appendix A Additional Background on Stocks and Bonds 327 Stocks 327 Bonds 334 Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Aftershock 343 Profiting from a Moving Market 345 Profiting from Market Moving 346 Shorting in the Aftershock 349

7 x Contents Appendix B Are the Stock and Gold Markets Manipulated? 353 Statistical Manipulation 360 Gold Manipulation 362 Market Manipulation Summary 365 Investment Impact 365 Epilogue 367 Index 369