NRG Energy, Inc. Calyon Securities New York, NY November 30, 2006

Transcription

1 NRG Energy, Inc. Calyon Securities New York, NY November 30, 2006

2 Safe Harbor Statement This Investor Presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and typically can be identified by the use of words such as expect, estimate, should, anticipate, forecast, plan, guidance, believe and similar terms. Such forward-looking statements include our adjusted EBITDA, cash flow from operations, free cash flow and free cash flow per share guidance, the timing and completion of the announced transaction (including the hedge resets, incurrence of unsecured debt and credit amendments), expected earnings, future growth and financial performance, expected timing of sales of our assets in Australia, our acquisition, hedging and repowering strategy, expected benefits and EBITDA improvements of the FORNRG initiatives, and expected benefits and timing of the capital allocation program. Although NRG believes that its expectations are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual results may vary materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated above include, among others, general economic conditions, hazards customary in the power industry, weather conditions, competition in wholesale power markets, the volatility of energy and fuel prices, failure of customers to perform under contracts, changes in the wholesale power markets, changes in government regulation of markets and of environmental emissions, the condition of capital markets generally, our ability to access capital markets, unanticipated outages at our generation facilities, adverse results in current and future litigation, failure to identify or successfully implement acquisitions and repowerings, the inability to implement value enhancing improvements to plant operations and companywide processes, our ability to realize value through our hedging strategy, our ability to close the sales of the Australia assets as described herein, and our ability to achieve the expected benefits of our hedging and the capital allocation programs. NRG undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The adjusted EBITDA, cash flow from operations, free cash flow and free cash flow per share guidance are estimates as of November 3, 2006 and is based on assumptions believed to be reasonable as of that date. NRG disclaims any current intention to update such guidance from November 3, The foregoing review of factors that could cause NRG s actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward-looking statements included in this Investor Presentation should be considered in connection with information regarding risks and uncertainties that may affect NRG's future results included in NRG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission at 2

3 Agenda Strategy Overview Business Growth Drivers Summary Q&A 3

4 NRG Strategy: Platform Established for Multiple Growth Opportunities What we strive to be: A regionally focused, multi-fuel, carbon-diversifed scale generator with assets across the merit order and around transmission in each of our core markets with the capability to procure, transport and trade all of the commodities involved in our business. Extracting maximum value from existing fleet FORNRG Commercial Ops. Improved market design Northeast Enhance and Expand Core Portfolio Texas Genco West Coast Power Padoma Wind Capital Allocation: Capital investment West South Central Capital Allocation: Balance sheet management Repowering Initiative Environmental Compliance Fuel supply chain investment (railcars) Texas Portfolio Optimization Free cash flow generation & liquidity Return excess capital Our target customer: Load serving entities in our core regions willing to contract for their bulk generation needs at a premium price in exchange for our assistance mitigating their customers aggregate electricity and fuel cost and transmission constraint risks. Expanding and enhancing our core asset base drives value enhancing growth 4

5 NRG: Portfolio with Scale and Diversity Western Gas 1,948 MW 100% Northeast Oil 3,556 MW 50.0% Gas 1 1,530 MW 21.5% Coal 2,029 MW 28.5% Gas 5,480 MW 50.9% Texas Coal 4,195 MW 38.9% Nuclear 1,101 MW 10.2% South Central Coal 1, % Gas 906 MW 37.8% Nuclear 1,101 MW 4.8% Combined Scale 2 Oil 3,556 MW 15.6% Coal 7,729 MW 33.9% Gas 10,442 MW 45.7% 1Includes Devon 10 reactivated June 29, 2006; 2 Includes other North America capacity of 594 MW. For combined scale 3,419 MW (15%) is dual-fuel capable. Reflects only domestic generation capacity. MW data as of September 30, 2006 Asset scale and diversity of fuel and location provide value creation opportunities 5

6 FORNRG: Executing and Delivering Plant Classic NRG YTD EFOR* % Improvement Plant NRG Texas YTD EFOR* % Improvement Huntley Dunkirk Indian River 5.3% 7.9% 6.2% 11.7% 9.4% 9.2% 55% 16% 33% Parish Limestone 2.2% 1.4% 3.3% 1.4% 33% - BC II 3.3% 7.3% 55% STP 0.0% 1.1% nm 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *YTD through October % 8.4% 2.2% Q % YTD Oct '05 EFOR at Coal Plants 8.1% 2.7% 5.7% 3.0% 7.1% 2.6% 4.2% 0.4% 5.1% 1.9% FY05 Q106 Q206 Q306 YTD Oct '06 Classic NRG NRG Texas* *NRG Texas EFOR does not include de-rate hours in EFOR calculation 2006 Goal Ind. Avg: 6.1% 2008 Goal 1 st Quartile: 3.7% $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $35 $16 $36 $28 $7 $29 $37 $41 $44 $43 $41 $ E 2007E 2008E 2009E Target NRG Classic Operations FORNRG EBITDA ($mm) $81 $122 Target NRG Corporate $162 $200 Target NRG Texas $55 $50 $95 Extracting Value FORNRG driving improved availability through capacity recovery and reduced EFOR 6

7 Commercial Ops: Locking in the Medium Term Hedging Baseload Power Locking in Dark Spread /28/2005 3/3/ /27/2006 5% 1% Henry Hub 91% 2% 8% 5% $/mmbtu % 68% 56% 58% 2.00 PRB Forward Prices 12/28/2005 3/3/ /27/ Q3 Hedged Energy New Hedges Open Energy Hedged Fuel 22% 9% Margin Efficiency $700 $ Energy position as of 11/22/06; 2006 reflects balance of year revenues and ancillary services. 2. Includes Northeast, South Central and Texas portfolios within the U.S portfolio and excludes Thermal and International. 3. Includes financial gas swaps (reflected in equivalent MWh by taking the volume in MMBtu's and divided by the forward market heat rate in ERCOT). 4. Hedge percentages are subject to change due to market volatility and commodity prices which drive changes in expected generation. 5. Hedged fuel represents weighted average of coal and uranium Sep-05 lli 63% 93% 74% 89% 81% 73% 69% Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Marginable Hedges Potentially Marginable Hedges Non-Marginable Hedges Total Hedges Margin Outstanding $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $-. Extracting Value Locking in with flexibility to do more as market opportunity permits 7

8 Commercial Ops: Hedge Profile Sensitivities Reduce NRG s gross margin exposure to changes in gas price And preserve heat rate upside. $500 Gas Price Sensitivity Gross margin change ($mm) from $1/mmBtu gas price change $500 Heat Rate Sensitivity Gross margin change ($mm) from 1 mmbtu/mwh expansion in market heat rate $ $300 $400 $200 $100 $0 ($100) ($200) 56 (51) 125 (117) 175 (153) (216) (227) $300 $200 $100 ($300) ($400) ($500) Pre-Hedge Reset: Rising Gas Prices Pre-Hedge Reset: Falling Gas Prices (432) Post-Hedge Reset: Rising Gas Prices Post-Hedge Reset: Falling Gas Prices $ Note: Based on current market prices of gas and power and due to the asymmetric payout nature of some of the instruments used for hedging, the losses from a $1/mmBtu downward move in gas for years 2007 to 2011 will be lower relative to an upward move. Extracting Value Mitigating gas risk while preserving long term heat rate upside 8

9 Western Gas 3,339MW 96% Repowering: Reinforcing the Business Model Wind 150MW 4% Texas Coal 4,821MW 37% Wind 300MW Gas 2% 5,490MW 43% Repowering Plan Nuclear 2,296 MW 18% South Central Gas 706MW 26% Coal 2,048MW 74% 1. Reflects pro-forma net MW post-repowering: assumes 100% success rate and net of retirements 2. Includes other North America capacity of 594 MW. For combined scale 2,831 MW (12.4%) is dual-fuel capable. Reflects only domestic generation capacity. Gas 12,209 MW 43.8% Northeast Oil 2,768MW 34% Combined Scale 1,2 Fuel Coal 3,294MW 40% Nuclear 2,296 MW Wind 8.2% 450MW 1.6% Oil 2,767 MW 9.9% Coal 10,179 MW 36.5% West 3,489MW 12.5% Gas 2,096MW 40% Combined Scale 1,2 Region Northeast 8,156MW 29.2% Other 594MW 2.1% S. Central 2,754MW 9.9% Texas 12,907 MW 46.3% Texas STP units 3&4 Limestone - unit 3 CTs - Houston Texas Adds Louisiana BC-II - unit 4 BC-1 South Central Adds Northeast Indian River Montville Cos Cob Middletown Devon Huntley Gross MW Fuel Technology Operation 2, , , NUCLEAR COAL PRB/EASTERN GAS COAL - /ILLINOIS PET COKE/COAL COAL-L/PETCOKE COAL-L/PETCOKE GAS/OIL GAS/OIL GAS/OIL COAL-B/PETCOKE ABWR Pulverized Coal (BACT) Simple/Combined Cycle Pulverized Coal (BACT) Fluidized Bed Boiler IGCC - Shell Gasifier IGCC - Shell Gasifier P&W FT4 GE LMS 100 GE LM 6000 IGCC - Shell Gasifier Astoria GAS/OIL GE LMS Benefits: Additional Scale in Core Regions Regenerate Asset Base Reduce Carbon Profile Reduce Merchant Volatility Capital Investment Northeast Adds California Long Beach Rebuild Long Beach Encina Peakers* El Segundo West Adds New Business Wind Power - Texas Wind Power - California Total New Business Total Gross MW Added 3, , ,007 *Likelihood for peaker and real estate development GAS GAS GAS GAS WIND WIND Simple Cycle Gas Turbine Simple Cycle Gas Turbine Simple Cycle Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Wind turbines Wind turbines A disciplined approach to identify and pursue profitable investment opportunities

10 Repowering NRG: Measured Investment Strategy Disciplined Strategy Ensure sufficient cash flows to support capital allocation program Maintain parent credit metrics within targeted ranges Projects subject to comparative analysis to other uses of capital Utilize non-recourse, project debt for most projects Staged equity contributions consistent with parent free cash flow Project returns > cost of capital Utilize project contracts to mitigate and reduce risk Seek co-owners and third party investments from equity investors, offtakers and/or equipment suppliers Potential Capital Requirements Development Success Ratio 75% 50% Total Cost ($MM) ~$11,900 ~$7,950 Likely Debt/Cap for Projects 72%+ 72%+ Target NRG Stake 40%-60% 40%-60% NRG Total Contribution NRG In-Kind (1) Contribution NRG Cash Contribution ~$1,350-2,000MM ~550MM+ ~$800-1,450MM ~$900-1,350MM ~375MM+ ~$ MM (1) Potential development fees and common facilities value from equity sell downs. Capital Investment Required cash contribution from NRG is expected to be less than $1.5 billion 10

11 NRG Financial Philosophy 75.0% 50.0% Debt to T. Capital Net Debt to Capital Gross Debt Debt-to-Total-Cap ratio remains within range while returning meaningful capital returns to shareholders $405mm Share buyback (12/2004) $250mm Share buyback (8/2005) $500mm Share buyback (10/2006) $500mm Share buyback announced (11/2006) 25.0% Q4 03 Q4 04 Q2 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 ~ $1.6bn Share buybacks YTD Non-Core Asset Sales removed debt of $1.4bn and provided cash of over $670mm NRG Bonds Trade with BB Index 2, ,600 Debt Cash , NRG s average spread to the benchmark 10Yr US Treasury has declined over 110 bps since Spring 05 NRG bonds trade in line with the BB index - Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06E Sources: (1) MSCI Barra (2) Advantage Data 0 1/04 4/04 7/04 10/04 1/05 4/05 7/05 10/05 1/06 4/06 7/06 10/06 BB Index B Index NRG 7.25% due 2014 NRG 8.00% due 2013 NRG 7.375% due 2016 Balance sheet management Prudent Balance Sheet Management + Efficient Capital Allocation = NRG Financial Philosophy 11

12 Proactive Strategy for Environmental and Emissions Compliance Emissions Allowances NRG SO2 Allowance Position - Current Fleet NRG SO2 Allowance Position - Repowering 800, , ,000 SO 2 CAIR Reductions 2010: 2 for : 2.86 for 1 800, , ,000 Tons 500, , ,000 Tons 500, , ,000 SO 2 CAIR Reductions 2010: 2 for : 2.86 for 1 200, , , , , , Consumption Excess Cumulative Excess Consumption Excess Cumulative Excess Note: Excess allowances do not reflect any forecasted sales Harvest economic value of excess bank of allowances Active management of emissions portfolio Incremental fuel switching between coal types Conservative approach: maintain at least enough allowances to operate fleet through 2020 Portfolio management SO 2 and NOx Leader And Improving 12

13 2007 Guidance $ in millions except Cash Flow Per Share Adjusted EBITDA Guidance - 1/05/06 $ 1,558 (excluding MtM) Portfolio Changes: Sale of Australia businesses (70) Other portfolio changes (19) Development expenses (36) Hedge reset 650 Other, net (33) Adjusted EBITDA Guidance - 11/03/06 $ 2,050 (excluding MtM) Interest payments (634) Income taxes (15) Cash collateral received 42 Working capital/other charges 7 Cash flow from operations $ 1,450 Capex (352) Preferred dividends (53) Free Cash Flow $ 1,045 Cash Flow Yield 1 ~15% Cash Flow Per Share 2 $ Cash Flow yield based on common stock share price of $56 and projected 2007 free cash flows 2 Assume ~126 million common shares outstanding and excludes impact of Phase II Capital Allocation Plan FCF NRG continues to be a compelling FCF investment 13

14 Financial: Enhancing Liquidity Oct. 31, June 30, Dec. 31, $ in millions Unrestricted Cash $ 1,478 $ 957 $ 506 Restricted Cash Total Cash $ 1,549 $ 1,015 $ 570 LC Capacity $ 1,000 $ 1,000 $ 350 Current use Availability $ 158 $ 116 $ 38 Revolver Capacity $ 1,000 $ 1,000 $ 150 Non Trade LCs issued Availability $ 841 $ 846 $ 150 Total Liquidity $ 2,548 $ 1,977 $ 758 Note: June and December balances are not restated for discontinued operations Exlcudes impact of November 2006 hedge reset transaction Return Excess Capital Free cash flow continues to drive liquidity to all time highs 14

15 Capital Allocation Allocation of Cash From Operations (excludes cash on hand) Pre-Hedge Reset $7.9 billion ($ in billions) Post-Hedge Reset $9.2 billion $1.7 21% Incremental Cash Portion $1.7 18% $4.0 51% $2.2 28% $5.3 58% $2.2 24% Repowering CAPEX (75% case without in-kind contributions) Base CAPEX Cash Available for Debt/Equity Management & Other Corporate Purposes Return Excess Capital Balanced and value enhancing approach to capital allocation 15

16 NRG: A Year in Review Doubled domestic baseload generation capacity Increased economic EBITDA by more than double to $1.5 billion and annual FCF by $1.1 billion (2005 to 2006) Recapitalized the balance sheet Initiated 10,500MW Repowering initiative Expanded hedging program and counterparties Solved the hedging credit support question Addressing the carbon issue Raised FORNRG EBITDA contributions to $200 million Repurchased nearly 15 million common shares with more to come Removed sponsor equity overhang Sold 9 non-core projects which removed approximately $425 million in debt Increased capital allocation flexibility through credit amendments What a Difference a Year Makes! 16

17 Question and Answers

18 Appendix

19 Objectives, Execution & Value Drivers Financial Commercial Risk Management Operational Environmental Growth Drivers Maintain strong liquidity: Over $2.4bn, including $1.4bn of unrestricted cash Prudent balance sheet management: Net debt-to- total capital ratio of 50.9%, within targeted range of 45% to 60% Return capital to shareholders: Share repurchases of nearly $1.2bn (12/04, 8/05, and 10/06) Plans in place for additional $500mm repurchase in 2007 Asset Optimization: Sold 21 assets and reduced debt by $1.4bn while increasing cash by approximately $676mm Hedge long-term coal supply, with minimal price impacts: Locked up transport and commodity through 2009 by approximately 95% and 82%, respectively Actively manage excess emissions portfolio: Optimize sales and purchases Optimally hedge power sales: Contracted/hedged 66%+ through 2009 while preserving price upside Safety focus: OSHA YTD September 2006 rate of 2.14 vs an annual 2005 average of 2.9, a 26% decrease Improve unit performance & reliability: Q EFOR at NRG Classic improved to 4.2%, a 50% reduction from comparable 2005 period EFOR of 8.4% Emissions reductions since 2002: PRB conversions completed at Huntley and Dunkirk ECONRG: Comprehensive environmental plan, including a carbon mitigation strategy FORNRG: $200 million EBITDA contribution by 2009 Capacity markets: Evolving market design allow for improved asset returns Repowering initiative: Driving incremental long term earnings and cash flow growth NRG: Continuing to execute across all phases of business 19

20 Execution Strategy 2 New Hedges Pays for Hedge Resets 4 Incur $1.1 billion of unsecured debt C/Ps hedge capacity opens up 1 Hedge Resets New covenants & increased EBITDA enables Increased FCF substantially strengthens 1 st lien credit, enables 3 Amend 1st Lien Credit Agreement Step 1. Reset existing hedges 2. Enter new longer-dated hedges 3. Amend 1 st lien credit agreement 4. Incur $1.1 billion of unsecured debt Benefit Attracts new counterparties Opens counterparty credit capacity Strengthens credit profile to support amendment and new debt Allows funding of Hedge Resets Adds $500 million LC capacity for increased hedging Pays for Hedge Resets 20

21 Rationale for the Transactions Reducing commodity risk and locking in Texas Genco economics Increasing cash and balance sheet flexibility Removing credit metric distortions caused by acquired legacy hedges Removing cash flow and equity valuation distortions Adding significant baseload generation hedges in 2010, 2011 and create opportunity for 2012 above NRG Texas bid model price levels Amendment package reduces trapped cash leading to more efficient capital structure Improved metrics for debt leverage and coverage ratios reflect embedded reality Legacy hedges understate cash flows and overstate equity trading multiples The Transactions reduce earnings volatility while improving capital structure efficiency and flexibility 21

22 Removing Credit Metric Distortions 2007 Meets NRG's Pre- Post- Targeted Targeted Profile? Transactions Transactions Range Pre Post Credit Statistics Net Debt/Total Capital 48% 54% 45% - 60% Yes Yes Debt/Adj. EBITDA 5.3x 4.2x 4.25x No Yes FFO/Debt 11% 16% > 18% No No Debt Profile ($ in millions) First Lien Debt $ 3,113 $ 3,113 Unsecured Debt 3,579 4,679 Non-Recourse Total Debt $ 7,533 $ 8,633 The Transactions accelerate the achievement and improvement of the targeted credit metrics 22

23 Improving Near-Term Revenue Incremental Revenue Created by Hedge Resets Texas Region Net Baseload Capacity (MW) 5,340 5,340 5,340 5,340 Texas Region Baseload Sales (MW) 4,267 4,157 3,449 1,395 Percentage Baseload Capacity Sold Forward 80% 78% 65% 26% As of Acquisition: Weighted Average Forward Price ($/MWh) $39 $41 $47 $51 Total Revenues Sold Forward ($mm) 1,443 1,505 1, After Reset: Weighted Average Forward Price ($/MWh) $56 $54 $57 $55 Total Revenues Sold Forward ($mm) 2,103 1,963 1, Increase in Revenues Sold Forward ($mm) $660 $458 $273 $102 23

24 Appendix: Reconciliations

25 Reg. G Reconciliation Appendix Table A-1: Net Debt to Capital Reconciliation ($mm) 30-September June-06 Numerator Gross Debt 7,949 7,756 Total Cash 1,462 1,015 Net Debt 6,487 6,741 Denominator Net Debt 6,487 6,741 Preferred 1,139 1,138 Book Value of Equity 5,113 4,964 Capital 12,739 12,843 Net Debt to Capital 50.9% 52.5% 25

26 Reg. G Reconciliation Appendix Table A-2: Enterprise Value Consolidated Debt 1st Lien Debt Unsecured Debt Non-Recourse Debt Total Debt Cash 2007 (Pre-Transaction) $ 3,113 3, ,523 1, (Post-Transaction) $ 3,113 4, ,623 1,543 Net Debt $ 6,028 $ 7,080 Preferred / Perpetual Preferred Equity Value Enterprise Value $ 1,138 6,111 $ 13,277 $ 1,138 6,111 $ 14,329 Forecasted 2007 Adjusted EBITDA TEV/FY Adjusted EBITDA $ 1, $ 2, Equity Value Number of Shares (million) Stock Price Common Equity 126 $48.50 $6,111 26

27 Reg. G Reconciliation Appendix Table A-3: FFO/Debt Cash From Operations: 2007 (Pre-Transaction) $ (Post-Transaction) $ 1,450 Working Capital/Other Return of Collateral Pension FFO $ $ 1,401 Gross Debt $ 7,523 $ 8,623 FFO Debt 11% 16% CFO Calculations Free Cash Flow $ 450 Add CAPEX Add Preferred Dividends CFO $

28 Reg. G Reconciliation EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are nongaap financial measures. These measurements are not recognized in accordance with GAAP and should not be viewed as an alternative to GAAP measures of performance. The presentation of Adjusted EBITDA should not be construed as an inference that NRG s future results will be unaffected by unusual or non-recurring items. EBITDA represents net income before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA is presented because NRG considers it an important supplemental measure of its performance and believes debt-holders frequently use EBITDA to analyze operating performance and debt service capacity. EBITDA has limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider it in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our operating results as reported under GAAP. Some of these limitations are: EBITDA does not reflect cash expenditures, or future requirements for capital expenditures, or contractual commitments; EBITDA does not reflect changes in, or cash requirements for, working capital needs; EBITDA does not reflect the significant interest expense, or the cash requirements necessary to service interest or principal payments, on debts; Although depreciation and amortization are non-cash charges, the assets being depreciated and amortized will often have to be replaced in the future, and EBITDA does not reflect any cash requirements for such replacements; and Other companies in this industry may calculate EBITDA differently than NRG does, limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure. Because of these limitations, EBITDA should not be considered as a measure of discretionary cash available to use to invest in the growth of NRG s business. NRG compensates for these limitations by relying primarily on our GAAP results and using EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA only supplementally. See the statements of cash flow included in the financial statements that are a part of this news release. Adjusted EBITDA is presented as a further supplemental measure of operating performance. Adjusted EBITDA represents EBITDA adjusted for reorganization, restructuring, impairment and corporate relocation charges, discontinued operations, and write downs and gains or losses on the sales of equity method investments or other nonrecurring events; factors which we do not consider indicative of future operating performance. The reader is encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons NRG considers it appropriate for supplemental analysis. As an analytical tool, adjusted EBITDA is subject to all of the limitations applicable to EBITDA. In addition, in evaluating adjusted EBITDA, the reader should be aware that in the future NRG may incur expenses similar to the adjustments in this news release. Free cash flow is cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and preferred stock dividends and is used by NRG predominantly as a forecasting tool to estimate cash available for debt reduction and other investments. The reader is encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons NRG considers it appropriate for supplemental analysis. In addition, in evaluating free cash flow, the reader should be aware that in the future NRG may incur expenses similar to the adjustments in this news release. 28