2015 PLATINUM & PALLADIUM MARKET OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 2015 PLATINUM & PALLADIUM MARKET OUTLOOK

2 Copyright CPM Group LLC These reports are produced by CPM Group for distribution by Monex Deposit Company. The rights to distribution, reproduction, and redistribution rights are ceded to Monex Deposit Company by CPM Group for these reports. These reports are not for reproduction or retransmission without written consent of Monex Deposit Company. The intellectual content and property of these reports remain the property of CPM Group, and they are not for reproduction or retransmission without written consent of CPM Group. The views expressed within are solely those of CPM Group. Such information has not been verified, nor does CPM make any representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. While every effort has been made to ensure that the accuracy of the material contained in the reports is correct, CPM Group cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. CPM Group is not soliciting any action based on it. Information contained here should not be relied on as specific investment or market timing advice. At times the principals and associates of CPM Group may have long or short positions in some of the markets mentioned here.

3 Page 1 Platinum to Make a Comeback and Palladium to Consolidate Platinum and palladium diverged during the first eight months of 2014, with palladium rising to historically high levels and platinum prices largely moving sideways between $1,370 and $1,520. Palladium prices rose from $720 at the beginning of 2014 to an intraday high of $913 on 2 September, the highest price on record since 22 February 2001, when prices had touched an intraday high of $924. During the last four months of 2014 both platinum and palladium prices softened. Platinum prices slipped to $1,209 on 31 December, down $ from the level at which they had started the year. Palladium meanwhile managed to retain its gains for the year, as the weakness in prices during the last four months of 2014 was from a significantly higher level. Palladium prices ended the year at $798, up $68.15 from the beginning of Mine supply disruptions as a result of South African labor strikes during the first half of the year were the primary factor supporting both platinum and palladium prices. South Africa accounts for around 70% of platinum mine supply and 36% of palladium mine supply. Palladium prices were further helped by robust fabrication demand, the launch of two new palladium exchange traded products in South Africa, and ongoing concerns among market participants regarding the negative impact on Russian supply as a result of Western sanctions. Stalebull liquidation from investors who held metal for many years appeared to be the main restraint on prices; when prices failed to rise strongly, especially for platinum, Platinum Prices: Testing Key Support Levels Comex Platinum Prices, Daily, From 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2014 even in the face of the South African strike, investors chose to sell metal, at least for the time. Platinum During 2015 platinum prices are forecast to rise from the depressed levels at the end of Much of the gains related to platinum prices are projected to be back loaded into the second half of the year. Increased investor demand, supported by the metal s mostly positive supply trends but also fabrication demand fundamentals and increased efforts to promote platinum investment demand by the newly formed World Platinum Investment Council, are expected to be the primary drivers of platinum prices during Platinum prices are forecast to average $1,311 during 2015, down 5.4% from the 2014 annual average. Despite a positive outlook for platinum prices, the annual average is forecast to be lower as price will be starting the year from a lower base, with much of the increase in prices being back loaded. Prices are forecast to average $1,380 during the fourth quarter of 2015, the highest quarterly average price since the third quarter of The most important support for platinum prices comes from its supply side fundamentals. Platinum s largest source of its mine supply, South Africa, has a variety of unresolved problems that could further disrupt supply to various industries that are dependent on the metal. The two most common problems facing South Af- $/ Oz 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $/ Oz 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

4 Page 2 rican platinum mining companies are further labor strikes related to wages and safety related stoppages. Other threats to the industry come from weak infrastructure, most notably the on-going lack of electricity generation capacity and water. The most recent event when South African platinum mine supply was disrupted was the five-month labor strike that ended on 24 June During this period, 1.08 million ounces of platinum mine production was lost. As is typical, the loss in mine production extended beyond the strike while mining companies worked toward bringing production back onstream. The total loss for the year is estimated to be closer to 1.13 million ounces. Producer stockpiles built prior to this strike helped to keep the market supplied during the strike. Despite the end of this strike, which was widespread and lasted for a long period, there have been other disruptions to South African mine supply during Less than two weeks after this five-month strike ended, about 2,000 workers started an illegal strike on 4 July 2014 at Impala Platinum s Marula platinum mine. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which had a wage deal with Implats last year and did not participate in the five-month strike, is the majority union at Marula. NUM blamed its rival, AMCU, for this strike and said that the striking workers were demanding the same compensation as workers at Implats' other mines which did participate in the five-month strike. As mentioned before, the problems facing South Africa s mining industry are not limited to labor strikes. On 27 July 2014 a shaft at Northam Platinum's Zondereinde mine in South Africa had an accident, and the consequent repair work put the shaft out of commission for six weeks, according to the company. No injuries were reported but production at the mine was cut by half during the repair period. Much of South Africa s platinum mine capacity was restored to pre-strike levels by the start of the fourth quarter of South African mine production is expected to grow from 2014 s depressed levels during 2015, however, output levels may still fall short of 2013 levels. While commentators correctly keep writing that South Africa s platinum production will have to contract due to cost constraints and other problems, the reality is that South African production already was 20% off from 2006 s peak of 5.4 million ounces of output before 2014 s strike. Production will fall, but the industry already has been ravaged by the problems it faces. Platinum secondary supply fundamentals also are supportive of prices, as supply from this source has been shrinking in recent years. The largest source of platinum scrap supply is from auto catalysts. Scrap supply from this source has been declining, however. The primary reason for this is the introduction of palladium intensive gasoline auto catalysts during the late 1990s. All most all of the gasoline engine auto catalysts that have been entering the market in recent years contain very little or no platinum. These catalysts account for a major portion of the total catalysts available for recycling, with the large U.S, auto market being primarily a gasoline engine market. The United States is important to the amount of platinum group metals (PGMs) recovered from catalysts because of the volume of catalysts recovered from the market, the larger catalysts fitted to the larger passenger vehicles (light trucks), and the tight emissions standards in place for several decades in the country. Furthermore, demand for new vehicles in the U.S. auto market has been on the rise in recent years making a larger number of palladium intensive auto catalysts available for recycling. An uptick in demand in 2014 in the European auto market, which sells a large number of diesel passenger cars, helped boost the recovery of platinum-rich diesel auto catalyst. The increase in platinum recovery from this market was not sufficient to offset the reduced recovery of the metal from the U.S. auto market, however. This trend is likely to continue into 2015 and may gain some momentum during the year based on the possibility that the European auto market will grow at a slower pace than that seen in Other sources of platinum scrap supply are jewelry and electronics. Recovery from these sources is fairly small, however, as most platinum is used in wedding jewelry and is unlikely to be very sensitive to prices as is the case for silver jewelry, for example and recovery from electronics is only limited to hard drives. Platinum jewelry demand is forecast to rise during Toward the end of 2014 the price of gold was almost on par with the price of platinum. The decline in gold prices since early 2013 had posed a serious challenge to platinum jewelry demand, especially in China. Demand in

5 Page 3 China, which accounts for around 76% of global platinum jewelry demand, declined in The weakness in demand was the result of consumers in China diverting their dollars toward gold jewelry. The price of gold declined by 15.6% on an annual average basis in 2013 compared with a 4.4% decline in the annual average price of platinum. This drove many consumers in China toward gold over platinum during The relative strength in platinum prices relative to gold also discouraged demand for the metal s use in jewelry in other countries. A similar trend in price and demand continued during 2014, with platinum prices staying well above gold prices for much of the year. Platinum demand in China benefitted to some extent during its wedding season in October, when the gap between gold and platinum prices narrowed. This gap is forecast to remain small throughout This may benefit platinum jewelry demand as platinum is typically more expensive than gold and may make purchasing platinum jewelry around the price of gold seem like a bargain to some buyers. One bright spot for platinum jewelry demand over the past couple of years has been India, where demand has benefitted from a combination of increased marketing efforts to positions platinum jewelry as desirable and also from the increase in domestic gold prices due to the import restrictions and weaker Indian rupee. Platinum jewelry demand in India is forecast to continue rising at a healthy pace during 2015 with the negative impact on platinum demand due to the reduction in import duties on gold expected to be offset by the positive impact resulting from increased marketing and the relative softness in platinum prices compared with recent years. Demand for platinum from the auto sector rose during 2014, but is likely to move sideways during One of the primary factors that is expected to weigh on platinum fabrication demand from this market is the reduced demand for the metal from the European auto market compared to Demand from the European market is expected to soften in 2014 as a result of slower growth in new cars sales, based on the possibility of reduced economic growth or even a recession in the region. Additionally, the slow shift in demand for passenger vehicles away from diesel in Europe may further limit demand growth for this metal in European auto catalysts. Europe s passenger car market is majority diesel, with diesel engines accounting for around 53% of new car registrations in This percentage is estimated to have declined slightly in 2014 and is expected to decline further in This is projected to negatively affect platinum fabrication demand from the region as diesel engines use platinum intensive catalysts. During these years diesel engines may still remain the majority of new car registrations. However efforts such as those being pursued by France to phase out the sale of diesel powered vehicles are expected to have a medium to long term negative impact on the demand for diesel powered cars and for platinum demand from this sector. The phase in of Euro VI emissions standards in Europe that began in Platinum Supply and Fabrication Demand Annual Platinum Supply Russian Supply Secondary Supply Other Mine Production South African Mine Production Annual Platinum Fabrication Demand Other Countries Other Uses Dental Petrochemical Electronics Jewelry Automotive

6 Page may help to offset some of the weakness in platinum demand resulting from the reduced new car registrations of diesel engines. Typically tighter emissions standards result in higher PGM loadings per catalyst, holding all other factors that influence catalyst loadings constant. Commercial vehicle sales are an important component of platinum fabrication demand. These vehicles typically host larger catalysts than those seen in passenger cars, resulting in an increase in surface area that needs to be coated with PGMs. As a result, holding other factors that influence the amount of PGMs loaded in catalyst constant, the larger the vehicle the greater the amount of PGM demand. These vehicles also are powered by diesel engines, which require platinum rich catalysts. There was a divergent trend in demand for these vehicles in developed and developing markets during 2014, with developed markets seeing an increase in demand and developing markets showing signs of weakness. During 2015 commercial vehicle sales may keep on rising in the United States as the economy continues to grow, but should also pick up in China and India. Chinese growth has declined in three of the past four years and is likely to see a weak rebound during Indian demand meanwhile declined sharply over the past couple of years and is ripe for a rebound given the potential for improvement in domestic economic growth during A build-up of above ground platinum stocks is expected to continue to weigh on platinum prices. Much of these Palladium Prices: Near Historically High Levels Comex Palladium Prices, Daily, From 1 January 2000 to 24 February 2014 $/ Oz 1,150 stocks are held by wealthy individuals and institutional investors. Some of these investors who purchased this metal at prices far lower than $1,200 in the early to mid s have been liquidating their holdings in recent years, due to increased price volatility and falling platinum prices. Others, who may have purchased this metal at higher prices between 2010 and the first half of 2014, are likely to hold onto their purchases in anticipation of higher prices. The biggest upside risk to platinum prices comes from supply side disruptions and these can be fairly unpredictable, jolting prices higher. Some investors may choose to liquidate their holdings in such an event, which could cap any increase in prices initially. Palladium Palladium prices are forecast to consolidate at elevated levels during The supply and fabrication demand fundamentals for palladium are supportive of prices. These fundamentals already may be factored into the price of the metal, however, which could prevent prices from rising strongly during Consolidation in prices is typically positive for demand, especially fabrication demand. Palladium prices are forecast to average $804 during 2015, largely unchanged from the 2014 annual average. Palladium prices are expected to follow a more or less similar pattern to that seen in other precious metals, with prices rising during the first quarter followed by weaker prices during the second quarter and the initial part of the $/ Oz 1,150 1,000 1,

7 Page 5 third quarter. Prices are forecast to rise most strongly during the last quarter of the year. Strong fabrication demand for palladium is particularly supportive of palladium prices. The use of the metal in auto catalysts has been a strong driver of prices as has its use in electronics. These two uses collectively account for 80% of palladium fabrication demand. Palladium s use in auto catalysts has benefited to a large extent due to it being the predominant platinum group metal (PGM) used in gasoline auto catalysts. Passenger vehicles in the two largest auto markets in the world, China and the United States, are powered by gasoline engines. Palladium demand from this source also has benefited from the increased use of the metal in diesel auto catalysts in Europe. European diesel auto catalysts are loaded with a little more than a third of their PGM content being palladium. Besides these two factors, tightening emissions standards and the sale of larger passenger vehicles, especially in the United States, also have been benefiting palladium fabrication demand from the auto sector. The growing demand for light trucks in the United States during 2014 bodes well for palladium demand, with total sales of such vehicles during the first eleven months of the year rising 10% over the same period in This compares with year-on-year growth of 1% in car sales over the same period of Total light truck sales during the first eleven months accounted for 52% of total light duty vehicle sales, which was the first time since 2007 that light trucks have accounted for more than half of total light duty vehicles sales. The weakness in oil prices has been one of the primary factors encouraging demand for larger vehicles as these vehicles are less fuel efficient than smaller cars. The increase in demand for larger vehicles is likely to continue into 2015 as oil prices are forecast to remain weak and U.S. economic growth strong. This should directly benefit palladium fabrication demand due to the greater palladium loadings in these larger gasoline engines. Chinese auto sales during the first eleven months reached million, up 6.1% year-on-year. The rate of growth in Chinese auto sales is forecast to slow during Any slowing in Chinese auto demand would be from an extremely high base, however, which would still mean that there will be a large amount of palladium being consumed by this sector of the Chinese market. Slower growth in the Chinese auto market also should be offset to some extent by the ongoing phase in of the Euro V emissions standards in the major cities of China. European passenger car sales rose to million during the first eleven months of 2014, up 5.5% over the corresponding period in European auto sales are likely to soften during 2015, from 2014 levels, based on the potential for a recession or very weak economic growth during the year. With regard to palladium demand from the European auto market, weak growth in the European Palladium Supply and Fabrication Demand Annual Palladium Supply Other Mine Production Secondary Supply Russian Supply South African Mine Production Annual Palladium Fabrication Demand Other Uses Petro Chemical Jewelry Dental Auto Electrical p

8 Page 6 auto industry is likely to be offset to some degree from the slow and steady shift away from diesel cars in Europe, especially in countries like France where diesel accounts for around 70% of total new car sales. The Indian government deregulated the Indian diesel price in This reduced the price gap between gasoline and diesel and has resulted in a shift in consumer demand from diesel vehicles to gasoline vehicles. Gasoline vehicles are cheaper to purchase and maintain relative to diesel vehicles and therefore a diesel vehicle in India now makes more sense only if the miles travelled by the car are sufficiently high to offset the higher purchase and maintenance price of diesel cars. There are reports that new diesel car sales, which were as high as 60% of the total new car sales, are now down to around 40% of total new car sales. India is a growing market and a shift toward gasoline engines should be positive for palladium demand from this market. The electronics industry is the second largest user of palladium. The metal is primarily used in semiconductors. Semiconductor sales had been rising strongly since the beginning of 2014, and had been rising to new record highs since the middle of that year. This is positive for palladium fabrication demand. Demand from this sector is forecast to continue rising in the medium term. Palladium Fabrication Demand Ratio of U.S. Car to Light Truck Sales 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Light Trucks Cars 100% Note: 2014 data is through November. Source: CPM Group, Autonews 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The rising price of palladium could negatively affect future demand for the metal from this sector. The primary substitute for palladium in electronics is silver. The palladium/silver ratio declined between 2003 and 2013, moving from around 50 at the beginning of 2003 to around 20 at the end of The ratio rose in 2013, but then the price of silver declined sharply while the price of palladium continued to rise. The ratio stood around 50 at the end of November Between 1999 and 2002 the ratio between the two metals was higher than 50. The sharp increase in the ratio during 2001 when palladium prices rose sharply resulted in palladium demand from the electronics sector declining sharply and never returning to levels prior to The ratio is unlikely to rise to levels seen in 2001, but a consistently high ratio could encourage efforts to further thrift the use of palladium. That said, most of the efforts toward thrifting are likely to be offset by a sheer increase in the volume of semiconductors being manufactured. On the supply side ongoing concerns regarding supply disruptions from South Africa should provide some underlying support to prices. Mine supply from other regions is expected to mostly be flat during the year. Secondary supply of palladium has been on the rise in recent year, which is the outcome of growing auto demand in the U.S. market and stronger palladium prices. The strength in the U.S. auto market increases the number of vehicles available to be scrapped thus increasing auto catalyst feedstock to recyclers. There has also been an increase in the palladium recovered from electronic waste as a result of stronger prices and tighter government regulations associated with recycling scrapped electronics. One factor that could weigh on palladium prices is the large volume of above ground inventory. Some of this is held as stock in exchanges and some to back exchange traded funds, and some by the Russian government, but the vast majority of it is held by institutional investors and wealthy individuals around the world. Above ground inventories could be the single most negative factor for palladium prices. If some of the shorter term investors see that the price of palladium has stalled out in 2015 and is not rising as rapidly as it was in 2014 they may be inclined to sell into price rallies, capping any gain in prices. Other investors may look at the positive fabrication demand and mine supply fundamentals and purchase metal sold by shorter term investors, helping to provide support to prices.

9 Page 7 Platinum Statistical Position Thousand Ounces Supply p Mine Production South Africa 4,778 4,537 4,671 4,680 4,103 4,342 3,207 4,266 Russia Zimbabwe Canada United States Other Total 6,301 6,014 6,164 6,410 5,719 5,996 4,903 5,996 % Change Year Ago -5.6% -4.6% 2.5% 4.0% -10.8% 4.8% -18.2% 22.3% Secondary Supply 1,376 1,220 1,525 1,460 1,330 1,240 1,193 1,174 % Change Year Ago 4.6% -11.3% 25.0% -4.3% -8.9% -6.7% -3.8% -1.6% Total Supply 7,677 7,234 7,689 7,870 7,049 7,236 6,095 7,170 % Change Year Ago -3.9% -5.8% 6.3% 2.3% -10.4% 2.7% -15.8% 17.6% Fabrication Demand Auto 3,785 2,740 3,081 3,173 3,153 3,234 3,375 3,400 Jewelry 1,698 2,283 2,126 2,331 2,502 2,443 2,478 2,534 Other 1,461 1,425 1,411 1,578 1,566 1,518 1,501 1,502 Total Demand 6,944 6,448 6,617 7,082 7,221 7,195 7,354 7,437 % Change Year Ago -5.8% -7.1% 2.6% 7.0% 2.0% -0.4% 2.2% 1.1% Net Surplus or Deficit Changes in Market Inventories* Price Per Ounce High $2, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1, Low , , , , , Average 1, , , , , , , % Change Year Ago 20.1% -23.1% 32.9% 6.7% -9.8% -4.4% -6.8% *Thousand Troy Ounces; Notes: Excludes transitional economies, except as noted. Secondary production statistics exclude toll-refined material; Prices are settlement prices for the nearby active contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange through 10 January. Changes in market inventories are month-end. *Changes in 1997 market inventories exclude U.S. Industry stocks since the U.S. Bureau of Mines ceased publication of U.S. Industry stock level data in the third quarter of 1997; As of 2006, inventories includes changes in ETF holdings; There may be discrepancies due to rounding; NA -- not available; e -- estimates; p -- projections; Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, Statistics Canada, trade sources, CPM Group; 2 January 2015.

10 Page 8 Palladium Statistical Position Thousand Ounces Palladium Statistical Position Supply p Mine Production Russia 2,737 2,686 2,732 2,714 2,638 2,590 2,540 2,578 South Africa 2,447 2,443 2,617 2,637 2,373 2,492 1,852 2,388 Canada United States Others Total 6,533 6,326 6,535 6,836 6,539 6,784 6,117 6,712 % Change Year Ago -10.0% -3.2% 3.3% 4.6% -4.3% 3.7% -9.8% 9.7% Secondary Supply Total 1,480 1,470 2,100 2,230 2,032 2,364 2,439 2,451 % Change Year Ago -1.9% -0.7% 42.9% 6.2% -8.9% 16.4% 3.2% 0.5% Total Supply 8,013 7,796 8,635 9,066 8,571 9,149 8,557 9,163 % Change Year Ago -8.6% -2.7% 10.8% 5.0% -5.5% 6.7% -6.5% 7.1% Fabrication Demand Electronics 1,125 1,095 1,179 1,207 1,191 1,229 1,267 1,283 Automotive 4,252 3,960 4,812 5,035 5,465 5,695 5,988 6,146 Dental Other 1,285 1,206 1,152 1,137 1,134 1,134 1,147 1,133 Total Demand 7,437 7,043 7,917 8,141 8,546 8,801 9,138 9,278 % Change Year Ago -4.2% -5.3% 12.4% 2.8% 5.0% 3.0% 3.8% 1.5% Net Surplus or Deficit Changes in Market Inventories* Price Per Ounce High $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Low Average % Change Year Ago -1.5% -24.4% 98.3% 38.7% -12.1% 12.7% 10.6% *Thousand Troy Ounces; Notes: Excludes transitional economies, except as noted. Secondary production statistics exclude toll-refined material. Prices are settlement prices for the active nearby contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange through 8 January. Changes in market inventories are month-end. *Changes in 1997 market inventories exclude U.S. Industry stocks since the U.S. Bureau of Mines ceased publication of U.S. Industry stock level data in the third quarter of As of 2006 inventories includes changes in ETF holdings. There may be discrepancies due to rounding. NA -- not available. e -- estimates. p -- projections. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, Statistics Canada, trade sources, CPM Group, 2 January 2015.

11 CPM Group LLC CPM Group is a fundamentally based commodities research shop. We develop our own proprietary estimates of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium supply and demand on a global basis, drawing on every resource we can find, including our own extensive list of contacts involved in precious metals around the world. We have been doing this sort of research and analysis since the 1970s, far longer than anyone else in the business. We also undertake research in specialty metals, base metals, energy and agricultural commodities. We are known for our basic fundamental research, a wide range of financially oriented consulting services, and our expertise in using financial derivatives to structure financing for producers, refiners, industrial users, and investors interested in either hedging or investing in commodities. Our investment philosophy is simple: We are value investors who base our decisions on what to buy, sell, hold, or avoid on the fundamentals of each asset, and the macro-economic, financial and political environmental factors that we expect will affect that asset s value. We have concerns, expressed in this report and elsewhere, about long-term imbalances in government deficit spending, public and private debt, and a wide range of other economic and political factors. We don t expect the world s financial system to collapse, however. That is not the way the world tends to work. More likely economic outcomes in the real world lie between the extremes of cataclysmic collapses and nirvana. We advise our clients and practice what we preach to have some of their wealth in gold and silver as an insurance policy against a catastrophic failure, but we also advise them to invest other portions of their money in precious metals and other assets based on the assumption that that sort of failure does not occur. We focus on investing based on likely scenarios, but with an eye always open to outlying events that take the world s markets by surprise. We have watched investors who were so worried about a collapse that they missed some of the largest stock and bond market rallies of all times over the past 30 years, while watching their safe haven assets fluctuate eight-fold in value up and down, and then up and down again. We prefer our clients to buy and sell precious metals and other assets based on cyclical and other developments, while also maintaining that long-term insurance policy in case the levee breaks. CPM Group LLC 30 Broad St. 37th Floor New York, NY USA

12 For more information on platinum and palladium and how specific gold, silver, palladium and platinum investments may be used to protect yourself or profit from the events we foresee, please contact: MONEX DEPOSIT COMPANY 4910 BIRCH STREET NEWPORT BEACH, CA (800) (949)