Société Générale NICE CONFERENCE 2015 Nice, May 29, 2015

Transcription

1 Société Générale NICE CONFERENCE 2015 Nice, May 29, 2015 Claudia Thomé, Co-Head of Investor Relations Daniel Fard-Yazdani, Co-Head of Investor Relations

2 Disclaimer This document, which has been issued by Axel Springer SE (the "Company"), comprises the written materials/slides for a presentation of the management. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information and facts stated herein are accurate and that the opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company, any of its directors, or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability is accepted for any such information or opinions. This document contains forward looking statements which involves risks and uncertainties. These forward looking statements speak only as of the date of this document and are based on numerous assumptions which may or may not prove to be correct. The actual performance and results of the business of the Company could differ materially from the performance and results discussed in this document. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements or other information contained herein whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document does not constitute or form any part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision in relation thereto. 2

3 Axel Springer at a Glance Highlights Germany s leading publisher with unique media brands Successful transformation with 73% of EBITDA from digital activities Organic growth supported by active M&A with strong track record Strong balance sheet and cashflow High dividend yield Revenues by segment 1) EBITDA by segment 1) 28% 45% Financials 5% 19% 59% 23% -11% 34% 2014 Outlook 2015 Classified Ad Models Paid Models Marketing Models Services / Holding Revenues 3,037.9 Low to mid single-digit % growth EBITDA High single-digit % growth EBITDA-margin 16.7% EPS (adj.) 2.01 Low double-digit % growth DPS (FY 2014) ) Based on Q1/15 figures. 3

4 Digital transformation along core areas of expertise 3 Zimmer mit Haus im Grünen, Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², gesucht! 2 gesucht! Ich, 43, wohnung, 75 m², gesucht! 2 Wohnung Mitbewohner Moderne Altbau- Wohnung Finesse, niedrige von privat! Keine Energiekosten Courtage! 030 Beste Lage! Zi.,Kü,Bad. Ab w, suche Mitbewohner, m, der mir Chiffre 0815 sofort! Beste Lage! Zi.,Kü,Bad. Ab dank Solaranlage, Chiffre 0815 sofort! ca 83m² Wfl., im Haushalt hilft Zimmer mit Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², Haus im Grünen, Mitbewohner Finesse, niedrige 3 Zimmer mit 650 Miete + NK Finesse, niedrige Mitbewohner oder mietähnliche Energiekosten gesucht! Ich, 43, Beste Lage! von privat! Keine gesucht! Ich, 43, Energiekosten Kaufraten, Bezug dank Solaranlage, w, suche Mitbewohner, m, der mir Mitbewohner, m, ca 83m² Wfl., Chiffre 0815 Courtage! 030 w, suche dank Solaranlage, sofort ca 83m² Wfl., Miete + NK im Haushalt hilft der mir im 650 Miete + NK Mitbewohner Mitbewohner Wohnung oder mietähnliche Haushalt hilft oder mietähnliche Haus im Grünen, gesucht! Ich, 43, gesucht! Ich, 43, gesucht! 2 Kaufraten, Bezug Kaufraten, Bezug von privat! Keine w, suche Mitbewohner, m, der mir wohner, m, der mir von privat! Keine w, suche Mitbe- Haus im Grünen, Zi.,Kü,Bad. Ab sofort sofort Courtage! 030 sofort! im Haushalt hilft. im Haushalt hilft. Courtage! 030 Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², gesucht! 2 gesucht! Ich, 43, Wohnung jetzt Mitbewohner 3 Zimmer mit Haus im Grünen, Haus im Grünen, Finesse, niedrige von privat! Keine von privat! Keine Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², Beste Lage! Zi.,Kü,Bad. Ab w, suche Mitbewohner, m, der mir Energiekosten Courtage! 030 Courtage! 030 Chiffre 0815 sofort! dank Solaranlage, Beste Lage! im Haushalt hilft. Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², 650 Miete + NK Moderne Altbau- ca 83m² Wfl., Chiffre Zimmer mit Mitbewohner Mitbewohner Finesse, niedrige gesucht! Ich, 43, gesucht! Ich, 43, Beste Lage! oder mietähnliche wohnung, 75 m², Energiekosten w, suche 3 Zimmer mit w, suche Chiffre 0815 Kaufraten, Bezug Beste Lage! dank Solaranlage, Mitbewohner, m, Finesse, niedrige Mitbewohner, m, sofort Chiffre 0815 ca 83m² Wfl., der mir im Energiekosten der mir im Mitbewohner 650 Miete + NK Haushalt hilft. dank Solaranlage, Haushalt hilft. gesucht! Ich, 43, Moderne Altbauwohnung, 75 m², Kaufraten, Bezug 650 Miete + NK von privat! Keine oder mietähnliche ca 83m² Wfl., Haus im Grünen, Wohnung Haus im Grünen, w, suche gesucht! 2 von privat! Keine Mitbewohner, m, Beste Lage! sofort oder mietähnliche Courtage! 030 Zi.,Kü,Bad. Ab Courtage! 030 der mir im Chiffre Kaufraten, Bezug sofort! Haushalt hilft sofort Classified Ad Models Paid Models Marketing Models & For all segments: main activities only. 4

5 Active portfolio management accelerates shift to digital Revenues Advertising Revenues EBITDA 81% 37% 63% 70% 19% 81% 88% 27% 73% 19% 2009 Q1/15 30% 2009 Q1/15 12% 2009 Q1/15 Digital share. (Digital share of EBITDA in Q1/15 would be 81% if Services/Holding was fully allocated to non-digital.) Non-digital share. 5

6 Earnings development driven by digitization Revenues in m EBITDA in m Q1/14 Q1/ Q1/14 Q1/15 6

7 Margin profile segments: Classified Ad Models with strong margin increase EBITDA in m EBITDA margin in % Classified Ad Models Paid Models Marketing Models Q1/ Q1/ Q1/ Q1/ Q1/ Q1/15 EBITDA EBITDA ex restructuring / launch costs EBITDA margin EBITDA margin ex LC/RC 7

8 Start into the year as expected guidance for the full year confirmed in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % Advertising % Circulation % Other % EBITDA % Margin 15.3% 17.1% -1.8pp Restructuring Exp Launch Costs Digital media driving revenue growth and over-compensating decline in print Revenues up 12.7% yoy, adjusted for consolidation effects +4.2% EBITDA stable yoy due to tough comps in Q1/14 and investments for growth in 2015 EBITDA to grow stronger in H2/15 EBITDA ex. Restr./LC % Margin 17.6% 19.6% -2.0pp 8

9 Adjusted eps down yoy partly due to negative FX effects in financial result in m Q1/15 Q1/14 Net income Net income discontinued operations eps discontinued operations (in ) 1) Net income continuing operations Non-recurring effects Effects of purchase price allocations Taxes attributable to these effects Adjusted net income Thereof attributable to non-controlling interests Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of Axel Springer SE in Adjusted eps continuing operations 1) ) Based on weighted average number of shares outstanding in Q1/15: 98.9m. 9

10 Free cash flow decline mainly due to higher net tax payments and increase in trade receivables Free cash flow in m Dividend volume in m Dividend ( /share) Q1/14 Q1/

11 Comfortable financial situation with headroom for investments and dividend Financial situation Future cash inflows ~ 480m Attractive financing further optimized Net financial debt 1) of 662m and leverage of 1.2x 2) Strong free cash flow generation (2014: 244.1m) 257m loans related to sale of assets to FUNKE Media Group 225m sale of stake in Doğan TV (after receipt of 63m in January 2015) Planned new legal form enables further mid- and long-term growth Sufficient headroom for investments in digitization and high dividend (payout of 178m for 2014 on April 15, 2015) 1) Excl. pension liabilities 2) Based on Bloomberg EBITDA consensus ( 557m) for FY 2015 as of May 11,

12 Clear investment criteria Strategic fit along three areas of expertise Experienced and incentivized management Reasonable valuation Added value through Axel Springer Company transformation supported by digital acquisitions (total of ~ 3.4bn) and divestments (total of ~ 2.5bn) since ) 1) EV before purchase price adjustments, taxes etc. 12

13 Exciting digital initiatives in the Englishspeaking world 13

14 Priorities going forward 1 Growth in Classifieds 2 Growth in Digital Subs 3 Growth in US/UK 14

15 Outlook 2015 Axel Springer Group Revenues EBITDA eps (adj.) Low to mid single-digit % growth High single-digit % growth Low double-digit % growth Classified Ad Models Paid Models Marketing Models Services/ Holding Revenues Significant increase Low single-digit % decline Low to mid singledigit % growth Significant decline EBITDA Significant increase Low doubledigit % decline Mid to high single-digit % decline Significant improvement 15

16 Envisaged legal form change to KGaA combines best of both worlds Family controlled business Capital Markets Access 16

17 Our corporate mission The leading digital publisher 17

18 Highlights Classified Ad Models

19 Classified Ad Models segment at a Glance Highlights Portfolio of market leading classified ad models 9 out of 10 activities #1 Real Estate #1 in France Classified Ad Models Jobs #1 in Germany Cars #1 in France Digital classifieds clear beneficiary of structural shift from print to online #1 in Belgium #1 in UK Local #1 in Germany Strong market positions yielding high margins 85% ownership and option for remaining 15% #2 in Germany & Financials #1 in Ireland, South Africa Generalist #1 in Israel Travel #1 in Netherlands and Belgium 2014 Outlook 2015 Revenues Significant increase EBITDA Significant increase EBITDA-margin 43.2% 19

20 Deal structure Former GA stake in Axel Springer Digital Classifieds (ASDC) 30% December % Cash payment ( 446m) 15% Issuance of Axel Springer shares (Appraisal report IDW S1) Valuation of ASDC of 3.95bn (100%, cash/debt free) EV/EBITDA multiple x-15x Closed December 8, 2014 Call option for Axel Springer (AS) against shares in AS SE 20

21 GA to become Axel Springer group shareholder Today Axel Springer Post transaction Axel Springer Classified Ad Models Paid Models Marketing Models Classified Ad Models GA share ~8.6% 1) Paid Models Marketing Models GA share 15% 1) Based on Axel Springer share price as of December 5, 2014 ( 47.66) and valuation of first 15% tranche. 21

22 Consolidating German real estate portals Cartel clearance received in April 2015 Joining forces Together 1) they create a strong #2 1) Closing expected in Q2/15. 22

23 StepStone: Lead over competitors is widening Company profile #1 job portal in Germany, UK and Belgium High growth driven by operational excellence and market share gains Applications per job ad in Germany; ) Revenue growth and scalability of business resulting in strong margin improvement Competitor x3.2 x2.6 x1.9 Several bolt-on acquisitions enabling knowhow transfer and best practice exchange Competitor x3.5 x3.1 x2.0 Relevance of direct search in Germany limited Competitor x3.6 x4.7 x4.6 Competitor x5.1 x7.1 x7.5 1) Source: TNS Infratest 23

24 SeLoger revenue growth driven by strong ARPA development Company profile #1 specialist real estate portal in France Monthly ARPA depending on regions (EUR) Penetration rate with real estate agents >80% Excellent competitive position and beneficiary from print to online shift Continued revenue growth driven by strong ARPA development over the last ten years Paris area Province Total (excl. verticals) Total (incl. verticals) Note: ARPA figures as of December of each year 24

25 Classified Ad Models with accelerated organic growth in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % Revenues (pro forma) % Advertising % Other % Revenue increase due to continued strong organic growth (12.2%) and acquisitions EBITDA up significantly, lower margin reflects consolidation effects EBITDA* % Margin 40.1% 43.4% -3.3pp * Total EBITDA includes costs of 1.3m in Q1/15 and 0.8m in Q1/14 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the three pillars. 25

26 Significant revenue growth in jobs vertical Jobs EBITDA share 50% Real estate EBITDA share 32% in m Q1/15 Q/14 yoy Revenues % Revenues (pro forma) % EBITDA* % Margin 42.2% 45.1% -2.9pp in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % Revenues (pro forma) % EBITDA* % General/Other EBITDA share 20% Margin 45.0% 46.7% -1.8pp in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues >100% Revenues (pro forma) % EBITDA* >100% Margin 33.6% 15.7% 17.9pp * Total EBITDA includes costs of 1.3m in Q1/15 and 0.8m in Q1/14 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the three pillars. 26

27 Highlights Paid Models

28 Paid Models segment at a Glance Highlights Focus on market-leading media brands with clear path to digitization National paid models dominated by unique asset BILD WELT group complemented by leading news TV channel N24 Pioneering paid content in Germany with encouraging results National BILD group WELT group/n24 (Main activities) Financials Paid Models International 2014 Outlook 2015 Ringier Axel Springer Media (Central Eastern Europe) Switzerland France, Russia, Spain Strong presence in Eastern Europe (JV with Ringier) and Switzerland (JV with Ringier envisaged) Revenues 1,561.4 Low single-digit % decline EBITDA Low double-digit % decline EBITDA-margin 15.6% 28

29 BILD a unique media brand print and online Print, daily reach in million 1) ma 09/I ma 09/II ma 10/I 12.5 ma 10/II ma 11/I 12.1 ma 11/II ma 12/I ma 12/II 12.8 ma 13/I ma 13/II 12.2 ma 14/I ma 14/II 11.3 ma 15/I Online, reach in million unique users 2) bild.de spiegel.de focus.de welt.de BILD vs. TV BILD 11.3 Tatort 8.9 WSJ 3.2 Big Bang Theory 22.9 Strictly come dancing The Sun Bild.de vs. Peers 2) ) ma Pressemedien, Note: change in population parameter after ma 2010 I 2) AGOF UUs (14+) in million per month (not incl. mobile internet). 29

30 BILD reaches 266k digital subscribers Freemium model Introduced 06/2013 Price range: per month Including German soccer league highlight clips April months after start 266k Metered model Introduced 12/2012 Price range: per month German soccer league highlight clips as additional option ( per month) April months after start 65k 30

31 Paid Models profitability impacted by change in revenue mix and growth investments in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % thereof digital (reported) % thereof digital (pro forma) % Advertising % Circulation % Other % EBITDA % Margin 11.6% 16.2% -4.6pp Restructuring Exp Launch Costs Revenue development impacted by consolidation effects (mostly N24), adjusted for these effects down 4.9% Advertising revenues adjusted for consolidation effects down 6.3% Increase in other revenues driven by consolidation effects from N24 EBITDA decline due to lower margins in other revenues and investments for growth EBITDA ex. Restr./LC % Margin 15.1% 19.6% -4.4pp 31

32 Paid Models National: EBITDA impacted by changed revenue mix and growth investments Paid Models National Paid Models International in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % % thereof digital (reported) % % thereof digital (pro forma) % % Advertising % % Circulation % % Other % % EBITDA % % Margin 12.0% 18.3% -6.4pp 10.3% 10.0% 0.3pp Restructuring Exp Launch Costs EBITDA ex. Restr./LC % % Margin 16.7% 22.8% -6.1pp 10.6% 10.1% 0.4pp 32

33 Highlights Marketing Models

34 Marketing Models segment at a Glance Highlights #1 positions in all major marketing business models Reach based marketing with strong organic growth and margin >20% zanox group European market leader in performance marketing Performance marketing with structurally low margin (~5%) Marketing Models Reach Based Marketing Performance Marketing Idealo zanox group aufeminin Digital Window kaufda/bonial eprofessional (Main activities) Financials 2014 Outlook 2015 Revenues Low to mid single-digit % growth EBITDA Mid to high single-digit % decline EBITDA-margin 13.8% 34

35 kaufda: Going fast track international Business model 2008: Start in Germany, quickly achieved market leading position Research online buy offline Making use of location-based offerings, also adding push alert functions 2014: Bolt-on acquisition of MeinProspekt Print insert goes digital Cost per Click Internationalization France (since 2011) Spain, Brazil (since 2012) USA (since 2013) US market size for brochures (>15bn USD) exceeds European market Growth driven by mobile More than 80% of brochure view already coming from mobile: Jan 11 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Brochure views Germany and France 35

36 Organic growth continues to drive Marketing Models in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % Revenues (pro forma) % Advertising % Other % EBITDA* % Margin 10.2% 14.0% -3.7pp Restructuring Exp Launch Costs EBITDA ex. Restr./LC % Advertising revenue growth driven by both reach-based and performance-based marketing models Increase in other revenues mostly due to TV activities and aufeminin group EBITDA below prior year due to growth investments as well as declines at idealo and aufeminin Margin 11.7% 15.7% -4.1pp * Total EBITDA includes costs of 1.6m in Q1/15 and 1.0m in Q1/14 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the two pillars. 36

37 Strong organic growth in Reach Based and Performance Marketing Reach Based Marketing Performance Marketing in m Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Q1/15 Q1/14 yoy Revenues % % Revenues (pro forma) % % Advertising % % Other % % EBITDA % % Margin 22.2% 34.1% -11.8pp 4.7% 4.2% 0.5pp Restructuring Exp Launch Costs EBITDA ex. Restr./LC % % Margin 25.8% 39.1% -13.3pp 4.9% 8.0% -3.1pp * Total EBITDA includes costs of 1.6m in Q1/15 and 1.0m in Q1/14 (thereof business development, M&A and other), not allocated to the two pillars. 37

38 Investor Relations contacts Claudia Thomé Co-Head of Investor Relations Phone: Mobile: Daniel Fard-Yazdani Co-Head of Investor Relations Phone: Mobile: Axel Springer SE: Axel-Springer-Str. 65, Berlin, Germany, Fax: