Ajanta Pharma Ltd. COMPANY REPORT BUY. Summary. Investment Highlights. In top gear. Nifty: 6,493; Sensex: 21,775

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1 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13 Oct/13 Nov/13 Dec/13 Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 COMPANY REPORT March 14, 2014 Ajanta Pharma Ltd. In top gear BUY Nifty: 6,493; Sensex: 21,775 CMP Target Price Relative to Sensex Analyst Mitesh P Shah mitesh.shah@idbicapital.com Rs986 Rs1,189 Potential Upside/Downside +21% Key Stock Data Sector Bloomberg / Reuters Pharmaceuticals AJP IN / AJBH.BO Shares o/s (mn) 35.2 Market cap. 34,707 Market cap. (US$ mn) 569 3m daily average vol. 16,430 Price Performance 52week high/low Rs1,086/404 1m 3m 12m Absolute (%) Rel to Sensex (%) (3) Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters FIIs/NRIs/OCBs/GDR 2.98 MFs/Banks/FIs 0.04 Non Promoter Corporate 9.73 Public & Others Summary Robust niche product basket, strong execution and management focus are the key drivers behind Ajanta Pharma s fast growth across its key geographies. The stock has rerated in recent past to a range of 1017x oneyear forward earnings from 512x historically. The rerating has been warranted given 1) tremendous growth reported across its key geographies (CAGR 27% over FY0913), 2) sharp improvement in margin (29.9% in 9MFY14 from 18.6% in FY09) and 3) improvement in balance sheet performance despite huge capex, owing to strong free cash flow, healthy return ratios (32.4% ROE, 25.5% ROCE in FY13) and negative working capital cycle. We expect existing geographies to continue to drive Ajanta s strong growth, while foray in developed markets with front line presence would give a filip to its long term growth prospects. We initiate our coverage on Ajanta with a BUY rating. Investment Highlights Only chronic in India; enabling fast growth Focus only on chronic (Ophtha, Derma and Cardio contribute 78%), innovative and limited competitive products consistently provide strong growth to the company s domestic revenue. In 9MFY14, the company s domestic revenue grew by 32% YoY, comprehensively beating industry growth of ~10%. We believe the company s chronic focused, limited competitive and innovative products portfolio, and gradual presence in new chronic segments (ENT/GI/Ortho) will continue to drive the company s domestic growth ahead of industry. We expect Ajanta s domestic Branded sales to grow at 28% to Rs5.0 bn over FY1316E. Niche in export pharmerging market and developed market foray to support long term growth The company s emerging export market mainly driven by Asia and Africa grew by 36% YoY to Rs4.9 bn in 9MFY14 owing to its strong product basket and niche product concentration. The company currently has 1,444 registered brands in these markets with strong established 380 professionals and has more than 1,380 dossiers awaiting approval. This will continuously provide strong growth to the company s export market. We expect export revenue to grow at 24% to Rs12.0 bn over FY1316E. Apart from this, post establishing presence in key pharmerging market, it has now forayed in developed market which is key long term driver for the company. Enhanced profitability; however new plant to impact in near term The company s EBITDA margin sharply increased by 571bps to 29.9% in 9MFY14 due to market share gain in margin accretive products and operational leverage. However, the commissioning of new plant (Dahej, Gujarat) in Q1FY15 would pressurize the company s FY15 margins, which should pick up post higher capacity utilization. Outlook and Valuation At current market price, Ajanta trades at 16x/12x on our FY15E/16E earning. We initiate coverage on the stock with BUY rating, with a target price of Rs1,189 (14x on FY16E EPS of Rs84.9) Table: Financial snapshot (Consolidated) 200 Year Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) 150 FY12 6,714 1, FY13 9,201 2, , FY14E 11,260 3, , FY15E 13,963 3, , Source: Capitaline AJP Sensex FY16E 17,348 4, ,

2 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Domestic revenue expected to grow by 28% over FY13 16E given its only chronic specialty portfolio and ability to launch first in class products Table: Top 6 brands contributes ~ 36% in domestic revenue Brand IMS MAT Dec 13 Segment Melacare Range 484 Derma MetXL Range 402 Cardio Atorfit Range 293 Cardio Apdrops Range 86 Ophthal Softdrops Range 75 Ophthal Aquasoft Range 60 Derma Total 1,399 Investment Arguments Only chronic in India; enabling fast growth Domestic branded business (contributes ~26 of total sales) vigorously grew by 31% to Rs2.4 bn over FY0913 due to its strong only limited competitive chronic specialty portfolio which mainly focus on Ophthalmology, Dermatology and Cardiology therapeutic segments (together all three segments contributed ~78% of total domestic sales) and also its ability to launch innovative products (the company s 60% products are first in market). Apart from this, the company also enhanced presence in ENT, Gastroenterology and Orthopedic segments which helps the company to maintain its healthy growth in domestic market. Ajanta outpaced the industry in terms of revenue, growing by 31% compared to the covered market growth of 1820% over FY0913. Hence, the company was able to clinch 40th rank in domestic market in 9MFY14 from the 58th rank in CY09. We believe given negligible NPPA impact, strong only limited competitive chronic specialty portfolio and ability to launch first in class products will continue to drive the company s domestic growth ahead of industry. We expect Ajanta s domestic branded sales to grow by 28% over FY1316E owing to increased market share in existing and new segments by consistent launch of innovative and limited competitive products. Fig.: Domestic branded sales growth 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 CAGR 31.4% Ophthalmology Dermatology Cardiology ENT/GI/Ortho CAGR 28.1% Fig.: Domestic Ranking MFY14 40 We expect the company to reduce its exposure in uncertain lower margin tender business to 10% in FY16E from 57% in FY08 Reducing exposure in uncertain tender business Due to uncertainty and lower margins, the company has reduced its exposure in tender business to 17% of total domestic in 9MFY14 from 57% in FY08. We expect the company to further reduce its expose in domestic tender business to 10% by FY16E. Figure: Ajanta s tender business exposure to reduce to 10% by FY16E FY08 9MFY14 FY16E Tender Business 17% Tender Business 10% Tender Business 57% Branded sales 43% Branded sales 83% Branded sales 90% 2

3 (Rs bn) The company s export market mainly driven by its key geographies Asia and Africa on the back of its large product basket and geographic wise niche product concentration Niche in export pharmerging market and developed market foray to support long term growth The company s export market largely driven by Asia and Africa (accounted for 68% of company s total sales) grew by 31% to Rs6.3 bn over FY0913 led by its large product basket and geography wise niche product concentration. The company currently has 1,444 registered brands in these markets with strong established 380 professionals and has 1,380 brands are under registration. Fig.: Export Geographical bifurcation LATam 2% USA 1% Table: Ajanta s Emerging Markets Building Brands Region No. of brands registered No. of brands under registration Major segments Africa 1, Antibiotic, AntiMalarial, Ortho Africa 55% Asia 42% SEA Ophthal, Cardio, GI West Asia Antibiotic, Cardio, Derma CIS Cardio, Ortho, OTC Latam Ophthal, MED, GI Total 1,444 1,380 We expect the company's Asian market to grow at 20% CAGR to Rs4.9 bn over FY1316E Asian market to grow at 20% CAGR over FY1316E Asian market (contributes ~31% of sales) has grown at a robust rate of CAGR 25% to Rs2.8 bn over FY0913. For better concentration and to cater unique requirements for each geography, the company has further divided its Asian market into three parts South east Asia, Middle east and central Asia. We expect company's Asian market to grow at 20% to Rs4.9 bn CAGR over FY1316E. Figure: Ajanta s Asian market revenue performance CAGR 20.0% CAGR 24.6% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E African market to grow at 21% CAGR over FY1316E Ajanta's African market drives >1/3 of total sales. It has grown at a CAGR 36% to Rs4.6 bn over FY0913. This market is largely divided to two parts East Africa and West Africa. West Africa is a high premium market. The company concentrates on this market from its Mauritius subsidiary (Ajanta Pharma (Mauritius) Ltd). In this market the company is in premium brands of antibiotic, antiinfective and CVS segments. While in East Africa, the company s revenue is mainly driven by tender antimalarial segment. After Novartis; Ajanta was the second company in the world which got WHO prequalification for antimalarial drugs in Africa. Currently only 4 companies (Novartis, Ajanta, IPCA and Cipla) have WHO prequalification to sell antimalarial drugs in Africa. Ajanta is holding ~1215% market share in African antimalarian tender business, which converts to ~30% of the total African revenue for the company. We expect the African market to grow at 21% CAGR over FY1316E. 3

4 (%) (Rs bn) Figure: Ajanta s African market revenue performance CAGR 36.0% CAGR 20.7% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Entry in the largest Pharmaceutical markets like the US and UK and established frontline team to market own products would be key driver for company s long term growth Foray in developed market for long term growth After establishing its presence by creating an outstanding brand image in Pharmerging markets, the company has now started expanding its wings in developed market. The company has already forayed in the US with basket of 22 ANDA filings including 2 approved products, out of which 1 product is already commercialized through marketing tieup with Breckenridge Pharmaceutical. However, the company has now set up its own frontend sales and marketing team in the US. Henceforth, the company will commercialize all its product in the US through its own team. Apart from the US, in Europe the company has received approval from eleven countries for one of its products and is awaiting approval for this product in three more EU countries. It has entered the large Pharmaceutical markets like the US and UK and has established frontline team to market its own products. This would be key driver for the company s long term growth. The company s EBITDA margin sharply increased to 29.9% in 9MFY14 from 18% in FY11. However, the commissioning of new plant will pressurize the company s FY15 margins, only to recover in FY16E Enhanced profitability; however new plant to impact in near term Due to focus only on margin accretive limited competitive and innovative products across the geographies, shrinking lower margin tender business, market share gains and better economies of scale, the company s EBITDA margin sharply increased to 29.9% in 9MFY14 from 18% in FY11. We believe, the company s strong profitability to sustain led by 1) Its strong margin accretive chronic ally domestic limited competitive and innovative product portfolio, 2) shrinking low margin tender business and 3) its niche country specific product portfolio for export emerging market. However, the commissioning of new plant Dahej, Gujarat from Q1FY15 would pressurize the company s FY15 margins. This should pick up post capacity utilization bump up. Hence, we expect the company s EBITDA margin to come down to 25.1% in FY15, only to start improving further to 26.6% by FY16. Figure: Ajanta s profitability performance FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E EBITDA Net Profit 4

5 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E (Rs bn) (Rs bn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E (Days) Due to strong free flow cash, unlevered balance sheet with negative working capital cycle the company is in better position to fund its entire future capital requirement from internal sources Unlevered Balance Sheet despite large capex with rare negative working capital cycle In past 5 years, to support its strong growth, Ajanta has spent ~Rs2.9 bn to increase its production capacity and further strengthen its R&D efficiency. This resulted in its gearing ratio enhancement to 1.5 times in FY09. However, due to strong free cash flow generation led by improved profitability and negligible working capital cycle, the company has already reduced its net D/E ratio to 0.2 times in FY13 and also company is now in a position to spend ~Rs4 bn internally to set up 2 new plants in Gujarat to support its future growth. Ajanta is among the few companies which have negative working capital cycle (20 days in FY13). Given strong free cash flow with nil working capital requirements the company is in shape to fund its entire future capital requirement from internal sources. Hence, we expect the company s balance sheet remain unlevered with negative working capital. Fig.: Ajanta s Net Debt/Equity ratio Fig.: Negative working cycle (0.2) (0.0) (0.0) (20) (40) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14EFY15EFY16E (8) (14) (12) (6) (20) (25) Fig.: Strong free Cash flow Fig.: supports large Capex

6 Mar08 May08 Jul08 Sep08 Nov08 Jan09 Mar09 May09 Jul09 Sep09 Nov09 Jan10 Mar10 May10 Jul10 Sep10 Nov10 Jan11 Mar11 May11 Jul11 Sep11 Nov11 Jan12 Mar12 May12 Jul12 Sep12 Nov12 Jan13 Mar13 May13 Jul13 Sep13 Nov13 Jan14 Mar14 Figure: 1yr fwd rolling P/E 1200 In past 6 months the stock has traded at an average of 14.5x compared to its 2 years trading range of 510x Price 6x 8x 12x 14x Source: Bloomberg; IDBI Capital Research Initiate with BUY; TP Rs1,189 We expect the company revenue to grow at CAGR of 24% over FY1316E led equally by domestic as well as export markets. We also foresee EBITDA margin of the company to contract marginally in FY15 only to recover by FY16. Consequently, we expect the company s earnings to clock 39% CAGR over FY1316E. At current market price, Ajanta trades at 16x/12x on our FY15E/16E earnings. In past 6 months the stock has traded at an average of ~14.5x compared to its 2year trading range of 512x prior to this period. We believe the sharp rerating in the stock is warranted mainly due to consistent strong financial performance with improved balance sheet. We initiate coverage on Ajanta with a BUY rating, with a target price of Rs1,189 (14x on FY16E EPS on our EPS of Rs84.9). This gives an upside of 21% from current levels. Key Risk Owing to dollar debt and export revenue, any adverse currency movement would be a concern. That said, the total foreign debt stands at ~US$15 mn, which is not large considering the company s scale of operations. The company has large capex lined up (Rs4 bn) to build 2 new production facilitates. Any delay on commensuration from these new facilities would impact company s profitability. Owing to its multi country operations, the company is exposed to regulatory risk in these markets. 6

7 About Company Ajanta Pharma is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in manufacture and marketing of formulations for domestic and international markets. It was founded by Agrawal family in 1973 and got listed in BSE and NSE in year Post listing, the company s revenue and profitability strongly grew by 22.5% and 26.9% CAGR over FY0113. The company has over 4,000 employees worldwide and has sold products in more than 40 countries with large presence in India, Asia and Africa. It also recently forayed in developed markets for faster growth. It offers products in the therapeutic areas of Anti Malarial, Cardiology, Dermatology, Gastroenterology, Musculoskeletal, Ophthalmology, and Respiratory. The company offers its products primarily under the Artefan, Met XL, Melacare, Ilapro, Feburic, and Nepaflam brands. The company also develops products under the Kamagra and ApcalisSX brand for the treatment of male erectile dysfunction. In India, Ajanta only concentrates on fast growing chronic segments largely in Cardiovascular, Dermatology and Ophthalmology. Also, due to its primary focus on new product innovation and introduction, the company has been consistently identifying unmet medical needs and introducing many firsttomarket products to cater those needs. Gaining first mover advantage, many of its brands hold leadership positions in their respective sub therapeutic segments. The company has extensive presence in many countries in Asia and Africa with customized product portfolio to suit the needs of each country. The company also has limited presence in LatAm and CIS countries. In all these markets the company offers its products in wide range of therapeutic segments such as AntiMalarial, Antibiotic, Cardiovascular, Dermatology, Orthopedic, Gastroenterology, General Health, Gynecology, Male Erectile Dysfunction (MED) and Pediatric. Apart from this, the company has forayed into the largest pharmaceutical markets the US and Europe in FY13. As of December 2013, the company has 2 USFDA approved products and 20 ANDAs under review. In EU, the company has already secured marketing authorization in 11 countries to commercialize its product Sildnafil Tablets. The company operates 5 manufacturing facilities; 4 within India and 1 in Mauritius. In India, three facilities manufacture finished formulations and one facility manufactures APIs primarily for captive consumption. All its facilities are certified for current Good Manufacturing Practices (cgmp) prescribed by World Health Organization,(WHO). Its Paithan facility also has US FDA, UK MHRA approvals. Apart from this, the company is building 2 more formulations manufacturing facilities (Dahej and Savli) in Gujarat to support its strong growth, which are scheduled to be completed in FY15. Figure: Ajanta s Geographical bifurcations Latam 1% US 0% Figure: Ajanta s share holding pattern Asia 27% India 37% DII 3% FII 0% Others 24% Promoter group 73% Africa 35% Management Bios Mannalal Agrawal (Chairman) Mr. Mannalal Agrawal is one of the founder directors of the company. He is an industrialist of repute with extensive rich business experience with exposure to Accounts, Taxation and other commercial areas, and has been the guiding force behind the growth of the company since its inception. He is Member of Audit Committee of the company. Yogesh Agrawal (Managing Director) Mr. Yogesh Agrawal is a management graduate from Johnson & Wales University, U.S.A. He is responsible for spearheading Ajanta's presence and growth in International markets and implementing various strategic plans towards sustained growth of the company. Rajesh Agrawal (Joint Managing Director) Mr. Rajesh Agrawal is a management graduate from USA. Mr. Agrawal served as the President of Indian Operations at Ajanta Pharma Ltd. since April 1, He is the key driving force behind the company s strong growth in India. Under his ownership the company has launched number of products which are first of its kind in the Indian market. 7

8 Financial Summary (Consolidated) Profit & Loss Account Cash Flow Statement Yearend: March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Net sales 6,714 9,201 11,260 13,963 17,348 Growth (%) Operating expenses (5,367) (7,064) (8,051) (10,570) (12,838) EBITDA 1,407 2,245 3,316 3,500 4,617 Growth (%) Depreciation (319) (342) (366) (438) (438) EBIT 1,089 1,903 2,950 3,062 4,179 Interest paid (241) (191) (81) (81) (67) Other income Pretax profit 910 1,768 3,094 3,120 4,286 Tax (137) (647) (928) (936) (1,286) Effective tax rate (%) Net profit 773 1,121 2,166 2,184 3,000 Adjusted net profit 773 1,121 2,166 2,184 3,000 Growth (%) Shares o/s (mn) Balance Sheet Yearend: March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Net fixed assets 2,486 2,851 4,127 5,288 5,950 Investments Other noncurr assets Current assets 3,917 4,247 4,778 7,320 8,063 Inventories 1,678 1,476 1,601 2,528 3,141 Sundry Debtors 1,410 1,505 1,744 2,512 2,687 Cash and Bank ,385 1,105 Loans and advances Total assets 6,505 7,206 9,012 12,717 14,121 Shareholders funds 2,980 3,934 5,869 7,760 10,358 Share capital Reserves & surplus 2,862 3,816 5,692 7,582 10,180 Total Debt 1,714 1,246 1,174 1, Other liabilities Curr Liab & prov 1,623 1,765 1,709 3,533 2,559 Current liabilities 1,470 1,536 1,390 3,210 2,127 Provisions Total liabilities 3,525 3,271 3,143 4,957 3,763 Total equity & liabilities 6,505 7,206 9,012 12,717 14,121 Book Value (Rs) Yearend: March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Pretax profit 910 1,768 3,094 3,120 4,286 Depreciation Tax paid (75) (581) (928) (936) (1,286) Chg in working capital (611) 160 (317) (67) (1,996) Other operating activities 21 Cash flow from operations (a) 572 1,688 2,257 2,556 1,443 Capital expenditure (502) (706) (1,684) (1,600) (1,100) Chg in investments (0) 0 (0) Other investing activities Cash flow from investing (b) (502) (706) (1,684) (1,600) (1,100) Equity raised/(repaid) 60 Debt raised/(repaid) 31 (468) (72) (10) (220) Dividend (incl. tax) (102) (167) (291) (293) (403) Chg in monorities Other financing activities Cash flow from financing (c) (71) (635) (303) (303) (623) Net chg in cash (a+b+c) (1) (280) Financial Ratios Yearend: March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Adj. EPS (Rs) Adj. EPS growth (%) EBITDA margin (%) Pretax margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Turnover & Leverage ratios (x) Asset turnover (x) Leverage factor (x) Net margin (%) Net Debt/Equity (x) WC & Liquidity ratio Inventory days Receivable days Payable days Valuation Yearend: March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E PER (x) Price/Book value (x) PCE (x) EV/Net sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%)

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