Weekly Letter. Market summary. Weekly performance. Company news. Key Performance Indicators. Highlights. Casablanca Tunis Abidjan Dakar
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- Reginald Shields
- 6 years ago
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1 Market summary Weekly Letter Weekly performance Company news MAROC TELECOM: Q operational achievements in line with our forecasts..4 CDM: Well oriented financial indicators..6 Key Performance Indicators Highlights The Casablanca Stock Exchange closes its last weekly session on a positive note with a MASI increasing by 1.34% to 11, points and a MADEX progressing by 1.36% to 9, points for a y-t-d losses of -0.05% and -0.6% respectively; Greater than the previous session, the transactional volume amounted to MAD 222.6m made up to an extent of 55.7% by the transactions on 95,813 COSUMAR stocks (i.e. 0.2% stake), 80,217 ATTIJARIWAFA BANK shares, 12,914 LAFARGEHOCILM MAROC securities (i.e. 0.1% stake) and 95,075 BCP stocks (i.e. 0.1% stake); Among the strongest increases, MED PAPER climbed by 9.87% to MAD for 34,873 traded shares (i.e. 1.4% stake) while WAFA ASSURANCE gained 6.0% to MAD 4,666 for 5 traded stocks; In contrast, STROC INDUSTRIE declined by 3.55% to MAD 45.9 for 777 traded shares while JET CONTRACTORS dropped by 2.72% to MAD 143 for 9 traded stocks; Crossing upward of the 5% participation threshold by MORGAN STANLEY & CO in HPS capital to 5.71%; Renewal of the suspension of SAMIR securities starting on May 2 nd, Casablanca Tunis Abidjan Dakar Our research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Six Financial Information, Capital IQ et Research Pool. Please refer to the important legal information at the end of the document and our website:
2 Market summary Floating MASI Daily perf Annual perf Floating MADEX Daily perf Annual perf FTSE CSE Morocco 15 Daily perf Annual perf FTSE CSE Morocco All Liquid Daily perf Annual perf Volume Central Market 11, pts +1.34% -0.05% 9, pts +1.36% -0.60% 10, pts +1.09% +2.22% 9, pts +1.18% -0.38% MAD m MAD m 100.0% OTC Market MAD 0.0 m 0.0% Market Capitalization MAD bn Ranking central volume Volume % Total In MAD m Volume COSUMAR % ATTIJARIWAFA BANK % LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC % BCP % MAROC TELECOM % MASI, MADEX and BCEI 20 since 28/04/2016 Base 100 MASI (Rebased) MADEX (Rebased) Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Top 5 sector indexes Indexes Points % Var YTD Pulp & Paper % % Insurance 4, % % Utilities 2, % % Holdings 4, % -0.22% Transportation 2, % % Ranking OTC volume Price per share Volume Number of shares In MAD In MAD m Nil Biggest rises and falls Rising shares Price on Quantity P/E D/Y % Change Traded 2017E 2017E MED PAPER , % n/d n/d WAFA ASSURANCE 4, % 17.8x 3.5% OULMES 1, % 19.2x 4.2% PROMOPHARM 1, % 16.6x 5.2% BCP , % 18.0x 2.3% Falling shares Price on Quantity P/E D/Y % Change Traded 2017E 2017E STROC INDUSTRIE % n/d n/d JET CONTRACTORS % n/d n/d MARSA MAROC , % 19.4x 2.5% MINIERE TOUISSIT 1, , % 13.6x 3.7% SNEP , % n/d n/d 2
3 Weekly Performance Market Indicators Floating Floating Retail Market vs. Institutionals MASI MADEX CLOSING 11, pts 9, pts PREVIOUS DAY % % 1 WEEK % % 3 MONTHS % % YEAR-TO-DATE % % Main increases of MADEX shares Closing Weekly Y-T-D Perf Perf FENIE BROSSETTE % % MED PAPER % % SNEP % % M2M GROUP % % PROMOPHARM 1, % % BCP % % ALLIANCES % % WAFA ASSURANCE 4, % % INVOLYS % % CIMENTS DU MAROC 1, % % Global Volume MAD m Central Market MAD m 100.0% OTC Market MAD 0.0 m 0.0% Main decreases of MADEX shares Closing Weekly Y-T-D Perf Perf CDM % % STROC INDUSTRIE % % JET CONTRACTORS % % SALAFIN % % SONASID % % NEXANS MAROC % % LYDEC % % AFRIC INDUSTRIES % % BMCE BANK % % BMCI % % Principal volumes for the week In MAD k Central OTC Total Market Market ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 98, ,186 COSUMAR 86, ,094 LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 58, ,897 MAROC TELECOM 55, ,400 ADDOHA 47, ,412 BCP 41, ,452 MARSA MAROC 27, ,313 SNEP 25, ,571 CIMENTS DU MAROC 23, ,757 TOTAL MAROC 20, ,805 Volumes for the week 04/24/17 to 04/28/17 Central Market OTC Market Screening Top 5 least volatile stocks Volatility Volatility 3 months 1 year UNIMER 15.0% 13.9% MAROC TELECOM 15.6% 15.1% BMCE BANK 16.6% 22.6% ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 17.5% 18.0% BMCI 17.9% 25.0% Weekly schedule of coming coupon removals Dividend (In MAD) Date of removal Nil - - Schedule of coming meetings Type of meeting Date of meeting BRASSERIES DU MAROC AGM 05/02/2017 DISWAY AGM 05/03/2017 TOTAL MAROC AGM 05/03/2017 MANAGEM AGM 05/04/2017 COLORADO AGM 05/09/2017 OULMES AGM 05/09/2017 EQDOM AGM 05/11/ /28/2017 4/25/2017 4/26/2017 4/27/2017 4/28/2017 3
4 vvdsvdvsd y Source: FactSet 90 mars 14 juin 14 sept. 14 dé c. 14 mars 15 juin 15 sep t. 15 dé c. 15 ma rs 16 ju in 16 s ep t. 16 déc. 16 mar s 17 juin 17 Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news MAROC TELECOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS Hold from Reduce Price: MAD 138 Closing price as of : 24/04/2017 Target price : MAD 136 Target price unchanged Reuters/Bloomberg IAM.CS/IAM MC In (MAD m) e 2018e Sales 35, , ,782.5 Var % 3.3% 0.5% 1.0% Operating Income 10, , ,305.4 Var % 1.2% -3.9% 2.4% Operating margin 29.7% 28.4% 28.8% Net Profit 5, , ,728.6 Var % 0.1% -0.4% 2.7% Net margin 18.8% 18.6% 19.0% ROE 36.2% 36.1% 36.7% ROCE 22.7% 21.4% 21.7% P/E 22.3x 21.7x 21.1x P/B 8.1x 7.8x 7.8x D/Y 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% Price Source: Company, BMCE Capital Research estimate Q operational achievements in line with our forecasts Fact: Publication of financial indicators in Q Analysis: In a context marked by a hardening of the regulatory and competitive environment, MAROC TELECOM records in Q consolidated Sales of MAD 8,517m (i.e. 24% of our 2017 annual forecasts and 97% of our quarterly forecasts), down 2.7% (-1.9% at constant exchange rate and -0.7% in sequential) compared to Q1 2016, as a result particularly of an unfavorable calendar effect combined with significant decreases in termination rates both in Morocco and abroad. This evolution includes a 2.5% decline (-0.7% at constant exchange rate) to MAD 3,766m of the African subsidiaries Sales and a 2.6% drop of the local Sales to MAD 5,024m (of which MAD 3,275m for the Mobile and MAD 2,214m for the fixed-line and Internet, decreasing respectively by 3.6% and by 1.2%). The Group s customer base expands by 2.7% to more than 54 million at the end of March 2017, due essentially to the growth of Mobile and Internet customers in Nigeria, Côte d Ivoire, Togo and Gabon thanks to continued market shares gains. On the operational side, the EBITDA strengthens by 0.7% (vs. +1.4% at constant exchange rate and 6.7% in sequential) to MAD 4,242m (i.e. 25% of our 2017 annual forecasts and in line with our quarterly forecasts). This stabilization benefits from the intensification of operating cost reduction programs (-2.0% at constant exchange rate) and the favorable impact of the drop in the Mobile termination rates in African subsidiaries. By Market, the local EBITDA decreases by 1.4% to MAD 2,643m while the African subsidiaries EBITDA earns 4.2% (vs. +6.3% at constant exchange rate) to MAD 1,599m. Therefore, the EBITDA margin grows by 1.6 points to set at 49.8%. For its part, the consolidated operating income -EBITA- comes to MAD 2,466m 1 (i.e. 25% of our annual forecasts for 2017), declining by 15.3% (+17% sequentially) due to (i) the integration of MAD 183m additional restructuring costs related to the voluntary redundancy plan launched in Morocco 2 at the end of 2016 and (ii) the non-recurrence of the capital gain on the disposal of a real estate asset realized in Q for MAD 295m. As a result, the operating margin lost 4.3 points to 29%. In the end, the Group net income reduced its decline to 10.5% to reach MAD 1,366m (i.e. 24% of our annual forecasts for 2017 and 90% of our quarterly forecasts), thanks in particular to the success of the restructuring of the new African subsidiaries whose net income is positive. Excluding the non-recurring items, the Net Income-Group Share would have increased by 8.6% (+ 8.7% at constant exchange rates). Lastly, Cash Flows From Operations (CFFO) amount to MAD 1,350m, down 48.9% compared to the same period in 2016, due to payment of MAD 435m for licenses in Côte d'ivoire and Togo and of MAD 553m 3 for the voluntary redundancy plan in Morocco. By Market, the local CFFO stands at MAD 988m (-37.2%) and the CFFO realized abroad at MAD 362m (-66.2%). 1 Excluding the exceptional items (restructuring charges and capital gain on the disposal of a real estate asset), the Group's EBITA would have amounted to MAD 2,649m (+1.3%). 2 The voluntary redundancy plan in Morocco, launched in December 2016, benefited to a total of 1,017 employees for an overall cost of MAD 569m. 3 Note that the remainder of the restructuring charges would be disbursed in Q
5 The main indicators of the Moroccan activity of ITISSALAT AL-MAGHRIB in Q are as follows : Table 1 : Main aggregates in Morocco (in MAD m) Source : MAROC TELECOM Abroad, the Telecom operator displays the following key indicators in Q1 2017: Table 2 : Main international aggregates (in MAD m) Source : MAROC TELECOM MAROC TELECOM : Q operational achievements in line with our forecasts Given the 3.3% drop in MAROC TELECOM stock price since our last valuation, we revised upwards our recommendation to hold in the portfolio against reduce earlier. Analysts: Hajar TAHRI LAMTAHRI h.tahri@bmcek.co.ma Hicham SAÂDANI h.saadani@bmcek.co.ma
6 vvdsvdvsd y mars 14 juin 14 sept. 14 dé c. 14 mars 15 juin 15 sep t. 15 dé c. 15 ma rs 16 ju in 16 s ep t. 16 déc. 16 mar s 17 juin 17 Source: FactSet Price Short Avg (Rebased) Company news CDM Hold Recommendation unchanged Price: MAD 450 Closing price as of : 28/04/2017 Target price : MAD 513 Target price unchanged Reuters/Bloomberg CDM.CS/CDM MC Well oriented financial indicators Fact: Publication of Q Analysis: CREDIT DU MAROC s achievements in Q reveal the following results: BANKS A Slight decrease of 0.7% in consolidated customer loans outstanding to MAD 36.9bn compared to the end of 2016 (-69.4% compared to Q4 2016) along with a 1% decline in customers deposits to MAD 38.6bn (+5.2% compared to Q4 2016). Thus, the transformation rate stands at 95.7% (+0.7 point). A 25.2% depreciation of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss to MAD 1.6bn against an increase by 15.4% of available-for-sale financial assets to MAD 4.2bn; Concerning the operational level, the consolidated Net Banking Income displays a 1% growth to MAD 548.8m (i.e. 24.8% of our 2017 annual forecasts). This evolution includes (i) a slight increase of 0.3% in the interest margin to MAD 426.8m, (ii) a 7.6% appreciation in the commission margin to MAD 106.2m and (iii) a 19.3% decline in market activities income to MAD 32.4m; A reduction of 0.4% of general operating expenses to MAD 261.2m for an operating ratio of 47.6% against 48.2% the previous year; An appreciation of 2.4% of the gross operating income to MAD 260.8m (i.e. 25.2% of our 2017 annual forecasts) compared to Q (+5.8% compared to Q4 2016); A progression of 33.8% of the cost of risk to MAD 95.3m, as a result of the anticipative policy of the bank s risk recovery; And, a rise of 54.4% of the Net Income-Group Share to MAD 104.4m (i.e. 31.1% of our 2017 annual forecasts) compared to Q (+77.7% compared to Q4 2016). Analyst(s) : Ghita BENIDER g.benider@bmcek.co.ma
7 Key performance indicators (1/2) Value on EPS P/E D/Y P/B Capitalization Quantity of shares Perf E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E in % MAD m TOTAL MARKET -2,70% 11,6 13,0 13,7 20,3x 17,9x 16,9x 3,6% 3,8% 3,9% 2,7x 2,5x 2,4x 100,0% AGRI-BUSINESS 13,3% 18,6 22,2 23,8 19,3x n/s n/s 3,5% n/s n/s 3,2x n/s n/s 7,2% BRASSERIES DU MAROC 2 350, ,2% 115,2 122,8 135,8 20,0x 19,1x 17,3x 4,8% 4,7% 4,7% 4,2x 4,2x 4,0x 16,2% CARTIER SAADA 22, ,7% 2,5 n/d n/d 8,3x n/d n/d 3,8% n/d n/d 1,0x n/d n/d 0,3% 121 CENTRALE DANONE 920, ,8% 6,3 n/d n/d 97,4x n/d n/d 1,4% n/d n/d 5,5x n/d n/d 21,1% COSUMAR 374, ,0% 22,3 21,6 22,9 15,4x 17,3x 16,3x 3,8% 3,7% 3,7% 3,2x 3,3x 3,0x 38,2% DARI COUSPATE 2 999, ,7% 196,5 n/d n/d 15,0x n/d n/d 2,7% n/d n/d 4,1x n/d n/d 2,2% 895 LESIEUR CRISTAL 140, ,7% 7,4 7,6 7,7 18,2x 18,5x 18,1x 3,7% 3,6% 3,6% 2,3x 2,3x 2,2x 9,4% OULMES 1 601, ,4% 86,2 93,7 107,2 16,8x 17,1x 14,9x 5,2% 4,7% 5,0% 3,9x 4,0x 3,7x 7,7% UNIMER 174, ,7% 9,9 n/d n/d 17,9x n/d n/d 1,7% n/d n/d 1,2x n/d n/d 4,8% INSURANCES -1,4% 18,8 21,6 23,0 18,8x 16,1x 15,2x 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 2,3x 2,2x 2,0x 4,1% ATLANTA 51, ,7% 2,6 3,3 3,6 19,2x 15,8x 14,3x 5,1% 2,9% 2,9% 2,0x 2,1x 1,9x 13,2% SAHAM ASSURANCE 1 245, ,8% 68,4 85,6 89,2 16,9x 14,5x 14,0x 3,5% 3,2% 3,2% 1,3x 1,3x 1,3x 21,7% WAFA ASSURANCE 4 400, ,4% 240,3 261,9 278,7 19,4x 16,8x 15,8x 3,4% 3,8% 3,8% 3,1x 2,8x 2,6x 65,1% BANKS -5,8% 17,3 18,6 19,6 18,6x 16,2x 15,4x 2,7% 3,0% 3,2% 1,9x 1,7x 1,6x 32,5% ATTIJARIWAFA BANK 399, ,4% 23,4 25,1 26,3 17,7x 15,9x 15,2x 2,9% 3,3% 3,5% 2,1x 1,9x 1,8x 43,7% BCP 256, ,0% 14,5 15,2 15,8 19,6x 16,8x 16,2x 2,1% 2,4% 2,5% 1,8x 1,5x 1,5x 25,1% BMCE BANK 200, ,3% 11,3 12,5 13,9 19,7x 16,0x 14,4x 2,2% 2,6% 2,8% 2,2x 1,8x 1,7x 19,3% BMCI 645, ,7% 32,5 38,2 38,4 18,8x 16,9x 16,8x 5,1% 4,7% 4,8% 0,9x 1,0x 1,0x 4,6% CDM 480, ,0% 31,1 30,7 29,7 15,7x 15,6x 16,2x 2,0% 2,3% 2,5% 1,2x 1,1x 1,1x 2,8% CIH BANK 315, ,0% 16,3 17,9 18,7 18,4x 17,6x 16,9x 4,7% 4,8% 5,1% 1,6x 1,7x 1,6x 4,5% CHEMISTRY 108,0% 16,6 n/d n/d 9,9x n/s n/s 0,0% n/s n/s 0,8x n/s n/s 0,1% 816 SNEP 340, ,0% 16,6 n/d n/d 9,9x n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 0,8x n/d n/d 100,0% 816 CEMENTS AND METALLURGICAL -9,0% 34,6 57,9 62,0 40,2x 22,8x 21,3x 3,3% 3,9% 3,9% 4,0x 3,6x 3,5x 12,6% AFRIC INDUSTRIES 309, ,4% 18,5 n/d n/d 18,9x n/d n/d 4,3% n/d n/d 2,5x n/d n/d 0,1% 90 ALUM DU MAROC 1 250, ,7% 39,2 112,5 120,7 30,5x 11,1x 10,4x 6,7% 8,1% 8,7% 1,5x 1,5x 1,5x 0,8% 582 CIMENTS DU MAROC 1 335, ,9% -9,4 67,4 68,5 n/s 19,8x 19,5x 5,0% 4,6% 4,3% 3,5x 3,6x 3,5x 26,7% COLORADO 60, ,1% 4,1 4,2 4,5 13,0x 14,4x 13,4x 7,9% 7,1% 7,1% 1,9x 2,1x 2,1x 1,0% 725 JET CONTRACTORS 147, ,3% 13,4 n/d n/d 12,3x n/d n/d 2,4% n/d n/d 0,9x n/d n/d 0,5% 353 LAFARGEHOLCIM MAROC 2 120, ,5% 88,1 88,8 93,5 27,8x 23,9x 22,7x 2,7% 3,7% 3,7% 5,0x 4,1x 4,0x 68,8% SONASID 391, ,3% -16,0-3,1 19,1 n/s n/s 20,4x 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,8x 0,8x 0,8x 2,1% BROKERAGE 13,0% 79,2 n/d n/d 14,0x n/s n/s 6,4% n/s n/s 8,7x n/s n/s 0,3% AFMA 980, ,5% 60,3 n/d n/d 13,6x n/d n/d 6,3% n/d n/d 11,8x n/d n/d 65,3% 980 AGMA LAHLOU 2 600, ,4% 173,8 n/d n/d 14,6x n/d n/d 6,5% n/d n/d 6,2x n/d n/d 34,7% 520 FOOD DISTRIBUTION 0,0% 54,8 26,0 29,6 24,5x 51,6x 45,3x 2,3% 2,3% 2,3% 2,5x 4,8x 4,8x 0,6% LABEL' VIE 1 340, ,0% 54,8 26,0 29,6 24,5x 51,6x 45,3x 2,3% 2,3% 2,3% 2,5x 4,8x 4,8x 100,0% SPECIALIZED DISTRIBUTION 5,1% 4,8 6,6 7,6 21,9x 18,0x 15,7x 4,8% 3,7% 3,9% 2,6x 3,0x 2,7x 1,7% AUTO HALL 111, ,9% 3,9 4,8 5,7 28,3x 23,3x 19,6x 5,5% 3,2% 3,2% 3,0x 3,1x 2,9x 54,8% AUTO NEJMA 2 270, ,5% 120,4 133,3 151,2 15,8x 17,0x 15,0x 3,8% 3,5% 4,0% 2,6x 2,9x 2,6x 23,3% ENNAKL 58, ,8% 4,5 5,2 5,8 12,7x 11,1x 10,0x 4,9% 5,7% 6,3% 2,9x 2,6x 2,4x 17,4% FENIE BROSSETTE 121, ,4% -7,3 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 0,5x n/d n/d 1,8% 175 SRM 257, ,3% 33,7 n/d n/d 8,2x n/d n/d 3,6% n/d n/d 0,6x n/d n/d 0,8% 82 STOKVIS 20, ,7% -1,7 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 3,7x n/d n/d 1,9% 191 ELECTRICITY 0,0% 41,5 42,3 43,1 18,8x 18,4x 18,1x 4,7% 4,5% 4,5% 3,6x 3,5x 3,4x 3,2% TAQA MOROCCO 780, ,0% 41,5 42,3 43,1 18,8x 18,4x 18,1x 4,7% 4,5% 4,5% 3,6x 3,5x 3,4x 100,0% GAS 4,6% 105,0 113,3 119,6 14,7x 15,1x 14,3x 4,0% 4,2% 4,4% 5,3x 5,0x 4,4x 3,7% AFRIQUIA GAZ 2 640, ,2% 139,3 152,7 164,7 19,0x 17,3x 16,0x 4,0% 4,0% 4,3% 4,1x 3,8x 3,5x 42,7% MAGHREB OXYGENE 121, ,0% 13,0 n/d n/d 8,2x n/d n/d 3,8% n/d n/d 0,4x n/d n/d 0,5% 99 TOTAL MAROC 1 350, ,4% 100,1 98,2 102,3 12,4x 13,7x 13,2x 4,0% 4,4% 4,5% 8,0x 6,6x 5,5x 56,9%
8 Key performance indicators (2/2) Value on EPS P/E D/Y P/B Capitalization Quantity of shares Perf E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E E 2018E in % MAD m HOLDING -1,2% 2,3 2,5 2,8 13,1x 11,4x 10,4x 4,1% 4,2% 4,6% 1,5x 1,4x 1,3x 0,5% DELTA HOLDING 28, ,0% 2,3 2,5 2,8 12,8x 11,4x 10,4x 4,1% 4,2% 4,6% 1,5x 1,4x 1,3x 97,5% ZELLIDJA 111, ,5% 0,3 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d 2,5% 64 HOTELS AND LEISURE -8,3% 6,4 n/d n/d 18,5x n/s n/s 0,0% n/s n/s 1,2x n/s n/s 0,3% RISMA 108, ,3% 6,4 n/d n/d 18,5x n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 1,2x n/d n/d 100,0% REAL ESTATE 5,8% 4,5 5,1 5,7 12,3x 11,3x 10,2x 4,8% 4,9% 5,1% 1,2x 1,2x 1,1x 3,7% ADDOHA 45, ,7% 3,1 3,3 3,5 13,7x 13,6x 12,9x 5,6% 5,8% 6,0% 1,2x 1,2x 1,2x 68,4% ALLIANCES 154, ,8% 11,4 22,4 33,4 8,1x 6,9x 4,6x 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,7x 1,1x 0,9x 9,2% BALIMA 100, ,4% 5,8 n/d n/d 17,1x n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 1,6x n/d n/d 0,8% 174 RDS 174, ,4% 17,9 19,3 19,4 10,4x 9,1x 9,0x 3,7% 4,4% 4,4% 1,2x 1,0x 1,0x 21,6% INDUSTRIAL SERVICES -0,8% -17,5 n/d n/d n/s n/s n/s 1,9% n/s n/s 3,7x n/s n/s 0,1% 363 DELATTRE LEVIVIER 188, ,8% 9,4 n/d n/d 20,1x n/d n/d 2,9% n/d n/d 1,0x n/d n/d 64,9% 236 MED PAPER 26, ,2% -11,3 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d -2,3x n/d n/d 18,7% 68 STROC INDUSTRIE 47, ,8% -57,5 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d -0,5x n/d n/d 16,4% 60 INDUSTRIALTRANSPORTATION 13,9% 8,7 7,0 6,9 14,5x 19,0x 19,4x 6,8% 2,6% 2,6% 3,2x 4,0x 3,6x 1,9% CTM 725, ,1% 56,8 n/d n/d 10,7x n/d n/d 7,4% n/d n/d 2,4x n/d n/d 8,3% 889 MARSA MAROC 133, ,9% 7,9 7,0 6,9 14,8x 19,0x 19,4x 6,8% 2,6% 2,6% 3,4x 4,0x 3,6x 91,1% TIMAR 217, ,4% 7,7 n/d n/d 40,8x n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 1,0x n/d n/d 0,6% 66 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 12,2% 32,4 55,2 60,7 9,5x n/s n/s 5,7% 6,3% 7,1% 1,5x n/s n/s 0,4% DISWAY 362, ,1% 35,1 36,0 37,7 10,2x 10,1x 9,6x 6,4% 6,9% 7,5% 1,1x 1,0x 1,0x 32,3% 683 HPS 913, ,8% 84,1 106,6 122,1 9,2x 8,6x 7,5x 4,5% 4,7% 5,3% 2,2x 2,2x 1,8x 30,4% 642 IB MAROC 95, ,1% n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d 0,0% 3,2% 5,3% n/d n/d n/d 1,9% 40 INVOLYS 118, ,9% 19,8 n/d n/d 5,1x n/d n/d 7,9% 11,9% 12,7% 0,5x n/d n/d 2,1% 45 M2M GROUP 292, ,9% 12,0 n/d n/d 25,8x n/d n/d 0,0% 6,9% 7,8% 1,5x n/d n/d 8,9% 189 MICRODATA 195, ,2% 23,6 n/d n/d 6,4x n/d n/d 11,0% 7,7% 8,7% 2,4x n/d n/d 15,5% 328 S2M 232, ,9% 21,5 n/d n/d 9,9x n/d n/d 6,8% n/d n/d 2,3x n/d n/d 8,9% 188 ELECTRICS & ELECTRONICS 0,8% 7,5 n/d n/d 19,7x n/s n/s 4,7% n/s n/s 0,5x n/s n/s 0,1% 335 NEXANS MAROC 149, ,8% 7,5 n/d n/d 19,7x n/d n/d 4,7% n/d n/d 0,5x n/d n/d 100,0% 335 MINING 14,8% 58,7 67,0 79,7 21,2x 21,8x 18,3x 3,3% 3,5% 3,4% 2,8x 2,7x 2,5x 3,2% MANAGEM 1 240, ,7% 31,5 37,7 50,5 31,1x 32,9x 24,6x 2,1% 2,4% 2,0% 2,5x 2,4x 2,3x 62,3% MINIERE TOUISSIT 1 329, ,6% 98,2 99,2 105,9 13,8x 13,4x 12,5x 3,6% 3,7% 4,0% 3,7x 3,2x 2,8x 12,3% REBAB COMPANY 122, ,0% -21,2 n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d 0,1% 22 SM IMITER 2 801, ,0% 178,1 197,2 215,9 15,7x 14,2x 13,0x 5,4% 6,0% 6,6% 3,2x 3,1x 2,9x 25,3% TELECOMS -4,0% 6,4 6,3 6,5 22,3x 21,5x 20,9x 4,5% 4,7% 4,8% 8,1x 7,7x 7,7x 20,9% MAROC TELECOM 136, ,0% 6,4 6,3 6,5 22,3x 21,5x 20,9x 4,5% 4,7% 4,8% 8,1x 7,7x 7,7x 100,0% OIL #DIV/0! n/d n/d n/d n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s n/s 0,3% SAMIR 127, ,0% n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d 100,0% PHARMACEUTICAL 10,0% 84,2 90,3 100,7 14,1x 14,5x 13,0x 7,0% 4,9% 4,9% 3,3x 3,6x 3,3x 0,6% PROMOPHARM 1 420, ,4% 87,2 92,0 106,1 13,9x 15,4x 13,4x 12,2% 5,6% 5,6% 3,8x 5,5x 5,0x 38,7% SOTHEMA 1 250, ,8% 82,6 89,4 97,7 14,3x 14,0x 12,8x 4,1% 4,4% 4,4% 3,1x 2,9x 2,7x 61,3% UTILITIES 4,2% 20,0 35,1 36,3 27,0x 16,0x 15,5x 4,2% 4,3% 4,6% 2,4x 2,3x 2,2x 0,8% LYDEC 562, ,2% 20,0 35,1 36,3 27,0x 16,0x 15,5x 4,2% 4,3% 4,6% 2,4x 2,3x 2,2x 100,0% FINANCIAL SERVICES 9,7% 12,9 94,7 98,8 16,3x n/s n/s 6,4% n/s n/s 1,5x n/s n/s 1,2% AXA CREDIT 291, ,0% -149,6 n/d n/d n/s n/d n/d 0,0% n/d n/d 2,4x n/d n/d 2,5% 175 DIAC SALAF 26, ,0% n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d 0,4% 28 EQDOM 1 100, ,0% 87,8 94,7 98,8 11,4x 11,6x 11,1x 8,5% 7,9% 8,2% 1,1x 1,2x 1,2x 25,9% MAGHREBAIL 920, ,5% 89,3 n/d n/d 10,4x n/d n/d 6,9% n/d n/d 1,1x n/d n/d 18,0% MAROC LEASING 376, ,6% 21,7 n/d n/d 17,9x n/d n/d 4,4% n/d n/d 1,3x n/d n/d 14,7% SALAFIN 878, ,8% 57,8 n/d n/d 14,3x n/d n/d 7,0% n/d n/d 3,1x n/d n/d 29,6% TASLIF 29, ,0% 1,8 n/d n/d 15,8x n/d n/d 3,6% n/d n/d 1,7x n/d n/d 8,9% 631 S: Suspended n/s = Not significant n/a = Not available Source: Companies, BMCE Capital Research 8
9 System of recommendations BMCE Capital Research uses an absolute system of recommendation. The recommendation for each stock is made according to the total return, which is the potential for increase (dividend payout and share buybacks included) within 12 months. BMCE Capital Research uses 5 recommendations: Buy, Accumulate, Hold, Reduce and Sell. In specific cases, for a short period, analysts can choose to suspend their opinion, in which case they use Suspended or Not monitored, terms which are defined below. Definition of the various recommendations Buy: the stock should generate a total gain of more than 20% within 12 months; Accumulate: the stock should generate a total gain ranging from 10% to 20% within 12 months; Hold: the stock should generate a total gain ranging from 0% to 10% within 12 months; Reduce: the stock should record a total drop ranging from 0% to -10% within 12 months; Sell: the stock should record a total drop of more than -10% within 12 months; Suspended: the recommendation is suspended due to a capital transaction (takeover bid, exchange offer or other) or change of analyst; Not monitored: this is used for companies at the time of their IPO or initiating coverage report. Sell Lighten Hold Accumlate Buy -10% 0% +10% +20% This recommendation system is given as an indication. Analysts may diverge in case of an erratic or punctual price evolution on the stock market of a certain value. Thus, the change in recommendation is not systematic and can intervene, in some cases, only after an observation period allowing to confirm the trend of the share on the stock exchange. Methods of valuation This document may refer to the following methods of valuation: DCF: The discounted cashflow method determines the present value of the cashflows that the company will generate in the future. This method is based on estimates established using a certain number of assumptions. We take as the discount rate the weighted average cost of capital, which represents the cost of the company s debt and the cost of stockholders equity estimated by the analysis, weighted for the proportion of each in the company s financing. Sum of parts: This method values the company s different activities separately, on the basis of methods appropriate to each of them and then adds them up. Stock market comparisons: This method compares the company s ratios with those of a sample of companies in the same business or with a similar profile (the comparables ). The average of the sample gives a valuation reference. The analyst then applies a downside or an upside depending on their view of the company (growth prospects, level of returns, etc.). Anglo-Saxon: The Anglo-Saxon method determines the present value of post-acquisition net economic benefits which should be generated by the company in the future taking account of the minimum solvability ratio. 9
10 Headquarters: 63, Boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca Morocco Phone: Fax: / Casablanca trade register No License No. 3/26 by the approval of the Ministry of Finance Contact information: Mr. Mohamed BENJELLOUN Trader Phone: / m.benjelloun@bmcek.co.ma Headquarters: Tour BMCE, Rond-Point Hassan II, Casablanca - Morocco Offices: 63, Boulevard Moulay Youssef, Casablanca Morocco Phone: Fax: Casablanca trade register No Disclaimer This document was prepared by BMCE Capital Research and published in accordance with current procedures. The content of this document comes from various reliable written sources but, in the event of damage resulting from the use of this information, is not binding on BMCE Capital Research, nor on BMCE Capital and nor on BMCE Capital Bourse, including in the case of lack of due care or negligence. BMCE Capital Research has established an organizational structure and procedures (or Chinese wall) designed to guarantee the independence of the financial analysts and the priority of customers interests. A black-out period is stipulated, running from the date of the beginning of drafting of the research memorandum until 3 months after its publication, during which time the financial analysts refrain from trading on their own account in shares in relation with the issuers and sectors they are monitoring. The information contained in this document and any opinion expressed in it do not under any circumstances encourage investment in the financial markets in general and in the Stock Exchange in particular. It is only given for information purposes and cannot be considered in any way as advice. In particular, any revenue from securities referred to in this analysis may fluctuate and the prices of securities may rise or fall. Investors may thus get back less than their initial investment and past performance is no guide to future performance. Currency exchange rates can have a negative effect on the value, price or revenues of the securities mentioned in this document. In addition, foreign investors who hold securities assume a foreign currency risk. This document was drawn up for clients and prospects of BMCE Capital and BMCE Capital Bourse. This document is intended for investors aware of the risks related to financial markets. If any individual should come into possession of this document, they should not make any investment decision solely on the basis of this document and should consult their own advisors. Investors should seek financial advice to ensure that the investment strategies examined or recommended in this document are appropriate and should understand that the opinions on the future prospects may not materialize. BMCE Capital Research, BMCE Capital and BMCE Capital Bourse individually and jointly decline any responsibility in terms of this document and give no guarantee as to the achievement of the targets and recommendations given herein, nor the accuracy or dependability of the information it contains. The information and explanations reproduced herein and the content are the exclusive property of BMCE Capital Research. It is strictly forbidden to copy, modify, reproduce, re-publish, distribute, display or pass on the content to an entity established under private law or public law, for profit or non-profit purposes, irrespective of the medium or means of communication and the good or bad faith of the entity performing any of the above-mentioned actions. The content is for individual, strictly personal use. It may not be used for any commercial purpose or end. There are no exceptions to these rules unless the entity duly considered to be the owner of the intellectual property rights of this content (BMCE Capital Research) so agrees. Any breach of these rules exposes the entity responsible for the breach to the relevant penal sanctions and the legal action necessary for the restoration of the rights of the authors and their compensation. Any disputes concerning these rules shall come under the jurisdiction of the courts of Casablanca. 10
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