Sefalana Holding Company Limited- Retail the engine of growth. Tel:

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1 Sefalana Holding Company Limited- Retail the engine of growth Analyst: Ngodya Chimbwete Tel:

2 Equity Research Botswana October 2014 Diverse Industrial Sefalana Holding Company listed in 1989 making it the first company to list on the Botswana Stock (then known as share market) and is currently the only listed company without a controlling shareholder. The company is a conglomerate holding company for Sefcash, Commercial Motors, Foods Botswana, Mechanised Farming, Vintage Travel and Tours and Kgalagadi Soap Industries (KSI) which all range across diverse sectors such as fast moving consumer goods in wholesale, retail and manufacturing, automotive industry in sales and services and other engineered plant, vehicles and machinery and also holds a substantial property portfolio. Retail expansion is the key business driver Sefelana opened its first store outside Botswana in Katima Mulilo, Namibia, during Q then successfully completed a 1 for 5 rights issue and raised BWP 255m (net of expenses) which was used to execute the groups largest acquisition ever of 12 stores in Namibia owned by Metcash Namibia Limited. We were of the view that investors should follow their rights and the issue was 151% subscribed signifying the belief in the market that the issue would be value adding. We further feel that this is the gateway for further regional expansion going forward while focusing on opening 3-5 stores locally until an optimal number is reached. Government tenders distort timing of cash flows Foods Botswana had a difficult year due to a longer than expected period between completing the 2012/13 Government feeding scheme contract and awarding the 2013/14. However the 2013/14 contract was awarded and commenced in March Recommendation Bloomberg code BUY SFLN.BG Current Price (thebe) Current Price (USc) Target Price (thebe) 1,163.0 Upside/Downside (%) month High/Low (thebe) 910/636 Liquidity Market Cap (BWP'000) 2,028,099 Market Cap (USD'000) 227,755 Shares (m) 13.4 Free Float (%) 100 Ave. daily vol ('000)- 1 yr Share Price Performance Price, 12 months ago (thebe) 630 Change (%) 44.44% Price, 6 months ago (thebe) 757 Change (%) 20.21% Financials (BWP 000) 31 Dec Current 2015F 2016F Turnover 2,368,466 3,098,075 3,330,300 Gross Profit 229, , ,039 EBITDA 163, , ,688 Attributable Earnings 118, , ,076 EPS (thebe) DPS (thebe) NAV/Share (thebe) Ratios RoaA (%) RoaE (%) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Valuation Ratios Current 2015F 2016F Earnings Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) PE (x) PBV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoaA (%) RoaE (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Valuation Using a combination of DCF and relative valuations we arrive at a target price of BWP per share, implying upside potential of 27.80%. We maintain our BUY call on the stock as we anticipate a bumper FY 15 whilst a relative amount of risk associated with its retail expansion to hold till FY 19. STRENGTHS Countrywide presence Diversified income streams Low levels of gearing Metcash the biggest wholesaler in Namibia Distribution Centre in Namibia WEAKNESSES Low margins in retail Business Late entry into the Botswana retail space Distorted cash flows in tender focused business segments Logistics expensive in Namibia due to distance Limited availability of sites for local retail expansion Share price vs DCI rebased OPPORTUNITIES Continued expansion locally Regional expansion Opening of distribution centre Focus on non-government contracts Availability of landbank to enhance property portfolio THREATS Increased competition in retail space Drought threats in the region High oil/ energy prices Retail expansion could affect wholesale performance Sefalana DCI rebased

3 Sefalana Holding Company Limited FY 14 Financial Review Virtually flat top-line growth: Group revenues were merely up by 0.8% to BWP 2.4bn, and the bulk of this was attributable to the group s wholesale and retail chains Sefcash and Shoppers which are under the business segment Trading-Consumer Goods and recorded a below average inflationary (average inflation 5.1%) rise over the period of 4.5% in revenues to BWP 2.1bn while contributing 89% of total revenues (FY 13: 86%). Two of Sefalana s operating divisions, Trading Others and Manufacturing had a difficult year reporting declines in revenue due to the timing of certain government contracts being outside the FY 14 reporting period while the property division posted a 9.5% increase in revenue to BWP 31.0m. Inventory turnover declined to 7.6x from 9.6x as some of the group is dependent on government tenders which were not delivered as expected during the period. GP and EBIT margins remain flat. For FY 14, gross profit margin stood at 9.7%, similar to that recorded at FY 13 as COGS registered similar growth to that of revenues to BWP 2.1m. This was largely due to stable commodity prices especially maize and oil. The EBIT margin for the group was slightly up to 6.9% from 6.5%. Operating expenses increased by 4.6% to BWP 107.2m driven mainly by the opening of new stores resulting in an increase in staff head count to 2,264 as at April 2014 from 2,073 in the previous comparable period. expansion locally, which requires a cash outlay of between BWP 5m-BWP 8m (depending on size), excluding stock. On the liabilities, side long term borrowings were up 39% to BWP 14.2m implying a debt to equity ratio of 2%. This ratio is likely to increase within the 10% - 15% range in FY 15 when considering a BWP 100m loan facility assumed post FY 14. Shareholder Analysis % of shareholding Botswana Public Officers Fund 40.84% Motor Vehicle Fund 10.77% Debswana Pension Fund 6.10% Mr.Chandra Chauhan 5.03% Others 37.26% Source: Company Annual Report Figure 1: Group Structure Sefcash Botswana (100%) Sefalana Sa Botswana (100%) Sefalana Properties Zambia (80%) Hyperbola (100%) Sefcash Namibia (100%) Slow bottom-line growth: The group managed an overall PBT rise of 5.9% to BWP 155.7m resulting in PBT margins rising by 30 basis points to 6.6%. An effective tax rate of 19.3% (FY 13: 18.2%) was charged to the income statement and PAT for the period registered 4.5% growth to BWP 125.6m (FY 13: BWP 120.2m) as margins marginally improved to 5.3% from 5.1%. EPS for the period was 63.62t from 61.50t in FY 13. Generally, speaking, we note that the performance of the group was negatively affected by reduced activity in business units that are heavily reliant on government tenders. Overall, a total dividend pay-out of 22.5t per share (FY 13: 29t) was declared, a lower pay-out ratio of 35% from earnings compared to a ratio 47% paid out to shareholders at FY 13. This is due to the group retaining profits for future expansion in its retail business. Balance sheet remains resilient: Total assets were up 13.7% to BWP 589.4m and investment property stood at BWP 171.2m (FY 13: BWP 132.3m) constituting 14.5% of the balance sheet vs 12.7% at FY 13. Cash increased by 7% to BWP 188.2m reflecting sufficient cash to fund the company s Sefcash Zambia {Dormant} (100%) Sefalana Properties Botswana (100%) Foods Botswana (100%) Merybeernick Investments (100%) Sefalana properties Zambia (85%) MF Holdings (55%) KSI Holdings (50%) Source: Company Management Bargen (72%) Commercial Mototrs (100%) Ellery Holdings ltd Dormant(10%) Mechanised Farming (100%) Kgalagadi Soap Industries (25%) Refined Oil Products (50%)

4 Operational Overview Sefcash and Shoppers, the growth engine of Sefalana. The Cash & Carry and Shoppers Supermarket business showed signs of stumbling in an increasingly competitive space, as revenues merely increased by 4.5% to BWP 2.1bn despite the opening of 2 stores over the period. GPMs and OPMs were virtually flat at 6.7% from 6.6% and 4.3% from 4.3% respectively on the back of effective cost containment and stable prices. Operating expenses increased by 7.2% to BWP 52.6m due to store openings resulting in a higher staff complement. The group currently operates 18 retail supermarkets under the banner Shoppers, 25 cash and carry outlets trading under Sefalana Cash & Carry and 3 Hyper stores trading as Sefalana Hyper Store across Botswana. Revenue and PBT split between wholesale: retail trade is 77%:23% and 83%:17% respectively while margins are about 15% and 19% respectively. The Shoppers retail chain continues to grow as 2 new stores were opened outside the FY 14 reporting period. Shoppers is contributing well to the group s profitability as the public becomes more familiar with the brand name. However, competition remains stiff in the Botswana retail space with aggressive growth from the likes of Choppies. Nonetheless strategic placement of stores remains key and Sefalana essentially considers proximity to its other stores and competition prior store opening. The group plans to open 3-5 stores per year until a store count of 40 Shoppers stores across Botswana is reached. Furthermore, a distribution centre is planned for the future which is likely to help reduce inbound costs as well as help optimise stock holding levels once operational. Sefalana s retail expansion into Southern Africa commenced during the last quarter of the financial year with its first store in Katima Mulilo, Namibia. This was followed by the group s biggest ever acquisition on 1 July 2014, that of Metro Namibia group of 12 stores across Namibia for a cash consideration of BWP 208m, about 29% of Sefalana s net asset value. A 1 for 5 rights issue of 37,144,693 offer shares at BWP 6.95 per offer share which raised BWP 255m (net of expenses) was used to fund the acquisition, and the remaining BWP 47m is intended for working capital purposes. The rights issue was 51% oversubscribed illustrating the markets confidence in the group and future prospects % 10.00% Business segment contribution to revenue 5% 7%1% 87% Trading-Consumer Goods Trading- Other Manufacturing Property Source: Company Financials Business segement contribution to PBT 14% 10% 14% 62% Trading-Consumer Goods Trading- Other Manufacturing Property Source: Company Financials 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 8.70% 5.50% Trend in margins gross profit Operating profit Net Profit 4.00% 9.70% 9.70% 6.50% 6.90% 4.80% 5.00% FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 Source: Company Financials Metro Namibia is the largest wholesaler in Namibia with a market share in the region of 35% - 40%. It operates 12 stores all largely in the wholesale format selling a range of FMCG products. Average store size is m² and a number of the stores also have a liquor component. According to management, the acquisition is expected to increase group turnover by BWP 800m in the first 10months of trading and contribute approximately BWP 30m to profit.

5 Visible challenges to the Namibia operation are the country s limited demographic construct (population of 2million) as well as transport logistics due to lengthy distances. Furthermore in the short-medium term it is expected that margins will be under pressure as a result of high marketing expenses and specials/discounts. Nonetheless, the acquisition is viewed as an opportunity for further expansion in Namibia and later into the region once Namibia is bedded down. Timing of Government tenders distort FY 14 cash flows for FB, however future looks bright. Foods Botswana (FB) mills and produces sorghum, soya and maize-based extruded products, malt and diastatic malt with 80% of the maize milling market in Botswana. The company operates a factory in Serowe that has a malt and milling capacity of about 1,800MT and 26,400MT per year, respectively, and is heavily reliant on Botswana government tenders for the provision of enriched meals for the Government s feeding schemes. The business unit had a disappointing year, contributing 5% to group turnover and 13% of group PBT as a result of reduced activity. This was on the back of a longer than expected period between completing the 2012/13 contract and awarding the 2013/14. However the 2013/14 contract was awarded and commenced in March 2014 thus proceeds should filter into FY 15 results and management expects this business unit to contribute BWP 200m to group revenue and BWP 15m to profits for FY 15. Although FB is heavily reliant on government revenues, for the provision of enriched meals for the Governments feeding schemes, the entity s ability to manufacture the required volumes makes risk of competition lower. The entity is working towards reducing reliance on the government through producing maize meal and samp on a larger scale. This is to be done through a new maize mill plant which is expected to be operational by December Part of the proceeds from the rights issue, approximately BWP 12m, will be utilised to fund the set-up of the maize plant in Serowe which is expected to increase profitability across the supply chain. KSI no longer a subsidiary. On 1 May 2013, Sefalana entered into an agreement with a strategic partner with significant regional expertise in the manufacture of soaps and detergents. This entity manages the operations of the KSI business which is now accounted for as a 25% associate rather than a 50% subsidiary. The results of this trading entity are therefore excluded from the manufacturing segment for the current year and shown under share of results of associates. Solid prospects for the property division. The Group s Botswana property portfolio performed well with overall capital gains of between 9% and 11%. Around 80% of the property portfolio is occupied by the Sefcash stores with the rest leased out to external entities. Sefalana currently has a land bank of approximately BWP 250m located in prime areas around the city and the group has a number of capital development projects scheduled for the next 36months which will further enhance its property portfolio. To fund these projects a specific BWP 100m long term (15year) debt facility was entered into and the drawdown of this facility will take place over 24 months. The Group s Zambian property is 100% let and generated capital growth of approximately 27%. Trading others disappointed but expecting a bumper FY 15. The trading other business unit which includes the selling of trucks (Man Heavy Vehicle Motors, Tata light and heavy commercial vehicles and Honda passenger vehicles and motorcycles) recorded a 32% decline in revenues to BWP 121.8m and a 33% decline in PBT to BWP 10.3m. This segment is also heavily reliant on government tenders and during the period the company secured two significant deals, worth BWP 150m, most of which will be delivered in FY 15. By nature of this business, certain large orders span over two or more financial periods, so essentially what was not awarded and delivered in the current year will be delivered in the forthcoming year. Valuation and Recommendation Apart from the Trading Consumer Goods (Sefcash and Shoppers) and Property Division, all other business segments disappointed the FY 14 results due to the timing of government tenders. However in FY 15 most tenders should be delivered and ought to filter down to the bottom line. Future prospects are further improved by the group striving to shift dependence away from government tenders to a more sustainable business model. Nonetheless, by and large we feel that the real engine of growth for the group lies behind the retail expansion and we welcome the company s expansion into the region, as it looks to diversity away from Botswana s relatively limited demographic construct, while property revaluations offer further upside in the group s property division. Accordingly we expect the price to rerate to reflect the earnings growth prospects of the company.

6 Sefalana prices at a PER of 14.3X, significantly below its SSA FMCG peers at 34x PER. The share price has had a significant rise reflective of a YTD gain of 35%, a sign that notwithstanding the dilution from the rights issue, the company s growth story is exciting to investors. Using a combination of DCF and relative valuations we arrive at a target price of BWP 11.63, implying upside potential of 27.80%. We maintain our BUY call on the stock as we anticipate a bumper FY 15 whilst a relative amount of risk associated with its retail expansion to hold till FY 19.

7 Financial Summary Key Financials BWP Thousands E 2016 E Revenues 1,875,500 1,709,950 1,902,194 2,103,634 2,350,399 2,368,466 3,098,075 3,330,300 Y-o-Y % -8.8% 11.2% 10.6% 11.7% 0.8% 30.8% 7.5% Gross Profit 172, , , , , , , ,039 Y-o-Y % -15.3% -9.7% 38.6% 24.9% 0.4% 33.8% 5.3% EBIT/Operating Profit 113, ,501 78, , , , , ,699 Y-o-Y % -7.9% -24.6% 47.2% 31.1% 7.2% 22.9% 20.0% Attributable Net Income/Profit After Tax 59,282 60,340 47,692 83, , , , ,832 Y-o-Y % 1.8% -21.0% 75.7% 36.0% 3.7% 29.2% 13.3% Productivity ratios E 2016 E Number of stores (wholesale & retail) Y-o-Y % 14.3% 18.8% 10.5% 4.8% 4.5% 34.8% 12.9% Revenue per store (000's) 56,037 46,933 42,491 44,798 45,773 45,729 47,558 49,461 Y-o-Y % -16.2% -9.5% 5.4% 2.2% -0.1% 4.0% 4.0% Operating Profit per store (000's) 4,054,214 3,265,656 2,074,711 2,763,810 3,458,886 3,545,804 3,233,854 3,438,555 Y-o-Y % -19.5% -36.5% 33.2% 25.1% 2.5% -8.8% 6.3% Average number of employees 1,631 1,780 1,984 2,057 2,169 2,764 3,764 Y-o-Y % NA 9.1% 11.5% 3.7% 5.4% 27.5% 36.2% Revenue per employee (000's) 1,048, ,615 1,031,193 1,133,815 1,046, , ,027 Y-o-Y % NA -5.9% 4.5% 10.0% -7.7% -9.3% -17.7% Operating profit per employee (000's) 64,072 44,304 58,508 74,005 75,217 78,461 68,905 Y-o-Y % NA -30.9% 32.1% 26.5% 1.6% 4.3% -12.2% NA NA NA NA NA 253.4% 140.1% Invetory turnover Per Share data Attributable Diluted EPS Y-o-Y % 1.8% -29.1% 75.7% 35.1% 3.7% 7.6% 13.3% Dividend Per share (DPS) Y-o-Y % 0.0% 55.0% 80.6% 3.6% -22.4% 6.7% 13.1% NAV/Basic Share Y-o-Y % 13.7% 40.9% 26.7% 14.3% 14.4% 32.7% 14.3% Margin Performance E 2016 E Gross Margin 9.2% 8.5% 6.9% 8.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.9% 9.7% EBIT margin% 6.1% 6.1% 4.1% 5.5% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 7.2% Net Income Margin % 3.2% 3.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 5.2% Ratios ROaA 20.9% 16.2% 10.1% 12.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.5% 14.5% ROaE 26.1% 24.9% 14.4% 18.3% 20.7% 18.7% 17.4% 15.0% Debt-Equity ratio 6.3% 5.3% 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 2.1% 10.7% 8.4% Earning yield on current price 3.9% 4.0% 2.8% 5.0% 6.7% 7.0% 7.5% 8.5% Dividend yield current price 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 3.0%

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