Ceylon Cold Stores PLC (CCS:LKR ) A great quarter all around- but too much built into share price: Take profits

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1 Earnings Review - Q1 FY 16 65, Braybrooke Place, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka research@bartleetreligare.com, August 2015 Ceylon Cold Stores PLC (CCS:LKR ) A great quarter all around- but too much built into share price: Take profits CCS s recurring EPS for Q1 FY 16 grew 84% YoY on the back of successful operations streamlining it had been implementing. EPS was LKR 5.78 where the top line grew by 16.4% with the CoGS increasing by only 12.6%. The reduction of finance cost by 82% was also a sweetener. Retail sector contributed ~63% to total turnover and ~27% to operating profits. Increase in same store sales driven by growth in customer count enabled the revenue growth in the sector. However, we believe the manufacturing sector which comprises of frozen confectionery and beverages would contribute the highest to operating profits in the forecast period (Q1 FY 15-73%). We upgrade our DCF based valuation to LKR 308 on the strength of the growth recorded in the retail sector. However, the share has risen significantly above its intrinsic value and we recommend SELL. All figures in LKR 'mn E 2017E Revenue 20,244 22,476 23,614 27,699 31,155 33,972 Revenue growth (%) 21.7% 11.0% 5.1% 17.3% 12.5% 9.0% EBIT recurring 1,499 1,030 1,439 2,131 2,628 2,875 EBIT margin (%) 7.4% 4.6% 6.1% 7.7% 8.4% 8.5% BRS EPS As Adjusted (LKR) BRS EPS growth (%) 453.7% -44.9% 83.9% 34.2% 29.2% 11.4% NAV per share (LKR) DPS (LKR) Dividend yield (%) 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% P/E (x) 10.5 x 21.3 x 12.0 x 18.9 x 20.8 x 18.7 x P/BV (x) 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 2.7 x 3.5 x 3.2 x Source: Company data and BRS Research The turnaround witnessed in the retail sector continues The retail segment revenue grew 17% YoY to LKR 5bn and operating profits grew by 256% YoY to LKR 206mn in Q1 FY 16 due to same store sales growth. This was a result of a comprehensive remerchandising programme carried out by CCS, which yielded positive results in the form of impressive same store revenue growth and a reduction in electricity tariffs. The company opened four new larger format outlets during FY 2015 and closed down three loss making outlets. During the quarter one outlet was open in Dehiwala. The company plans to open 8 to 10 new outlets during FY 16 and all new outlets will follow the same larger format model with in store bakeries. Manufacturing sector contributes the highest to operating profits The manufacturing sector achieved a 15.4% YoY growth in top line to LKR 2.8bn and 52.5% growth in operating profits to LKR 558mn in Q1 FY 16. Growth in the manufacturing segment revenue and profitability was achieved through increase in volumes of both frozen confectionery and beverages and increase in average selling price. Frozen confectionery and beverage volumes grew 15%-20% during the last quarter despite stiff competition. CCS increased beverage sector prices during the previous year, which enabled to increase its average revenue per liter by 6%. Decline in the global sugar prices also contributed to the increase in operating profits. YTD global sugar prices declined ~20%. Valuation - FCF valuation indicates a 27.3% downside to Current Market Price Based on a free cash flow valuation, we have arrived at a target price of LKR 308. Further, incorporating a dividend of LKR for FY 2016E, TP based on total return is LKR 319. Based on relative valuations the stock is trading at a forward PE of 20.8x based on FY 2016E EPS of LKR and CMP of LKR The sector PE stands at 23.6x as at 30th July For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer section at the end of this report. BRS Research Head of Research - Nikita Tissera Consultant - Thilini Yatawara Trading Snapshot Market cap (LKR mn) 40,280 Market cap (USD mn) 300 Outstanding equity shares (mn) 95 Public Holding (%) - June ' % 52-week High/Low (LKR) / YTD ASPI return (%) 0.5% YTD Stock return (%) 60.0% Valuation Summary CMP (LKR) Intrinsic value (LKR) DPS (LKR) Target price based on total return (LKR) Valuation method LKR CCS EPS E 2017E ASPI Vs. Share Price Movement CCS ASPI Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Page 1 DCF Valuation Total return % -24.7% Rating ASPI Sell

2 Company Information Note 65, Braybrooke Place, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka August 2015 Ceylon Cold Stores PLC Company profile Ceylon Cold Stores PLC (CCS) is a 81% owned subsidiary of listed conglomerate John Keells Holdings PLC and engages in the manufacture and marketing of beverages and frozen confectionery in Sri Lanka and internationally. CCS is the market leader in both the carbonated soft drinks and frozen confectionery categories. 20,244 LKR mn 21,000 15,000 9,000 3,000 Revenue LKR 'mn % Growth ( E) 11% 5% Revenue Breakdown Manufacture 17% 12% E 2017E 2017E Retail Source: CCS Annual Reports and BRS Research 9% Recurring EBIT Growth LKR 'mn ( E) 1,499-31% 40% 48% 16% 5% 33,972 2, E 2017E 2017E Year Ending 31 March E 2017E Summary Information BRS EPS (LKR) adjusted for dilution BRS EPS growth (%) 453.7% -44.9% 83.9% 34.2% 29.2% 11.4% P/E (x) 10.5 x 21.3 x 12.0 x 18.9 x 20.8 x 18.7 x Reported EPS (LKR) na na P/E on reported EPS (x) 5.1 x 6.7 x 11.0 x 16.0 x na na NAV per share LKR adjusted P/BV (x) 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 2.7 x 3.5 x 3.2 x DPS LKR Dividend yield (%) 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% FCFF (LKR mn) ,996 1,936 2,035 FCFE (LKR mn) ,795 1,843 2,020 CFPS LKR (0.81) P/CFPS (x) 18.6 x nm nm 27.9 x x x Mkt price (Voting) Weighted average shares (mn) Average mkt cap (LKR mn) 11,581 12,911 13,367 28,329 40,280 40,280 Enterprise value (LKR mn) 12,688 13,994 14,435 28,789 40,610 40,263 EV/Sales 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 1.0 x 1.3 x 1.2 x EV/EBITDA 6.3 x 8.4 x 6.9 x 10.2 x 11.8 x 10.7 x Income Statement (LKR mn) Revenue 20,244 22,476 23,614 27,699 31,155 33,972 Gross profit 3,051 2,925 2,817 3,670 4,454 4,926 EBITDA recurring 2,028 1,656 2,104 2,825 3,454 3,752 Depreciation and amortisation (529) (626) (665) (693) (826) (876) EBIT recurring 1,499 1,030 1,439 2,131 2,628 2,875 Interest expense (91) (101) (120) (61) (28) (35) Exceptionals/non-recurrings 1,142 1, Tax expense (306) (345) (327) (621) (691) (717) Net income 1, ,115 1,496 1,933 2,152 Profit attributable to equity holders 1, ,115 1,496 1,933 2,152 Statement of financial position (LKR mn) Cash and cash equivalents Inventories 1,816 2,102 2,065 2,383 2,422 2,836 Trade receivables 1,657 1,442 1,348 1,481 1,938 2,482 Investment property 3,766 5, Fixed assets 4,072 5,180 5,447 5,365 5,280 5,253 Intangible assets Total assets 11,955 14,836 15,597 16,495 17,225 18,665 Trade payables 2,439 2,779 2,567 3,121 3,004 3,262 Interest bearing debt -short term 1,036 1,113 1, Interest bearing debt -long term Total liabilities 4,663 5,660 5,597 5,839 5,654 5,986 Shareholders equity 7,292 9,175 10,000 10,656 11,571 12,678 Total equity 7,292 9,175 10,000 10,656 11,571 12,678 Net debt (cash) 1,107 1,084 1, (2) Total capital employed 8,611 10,613 11,451 11,365 12,099 13,228 Casf flow (LKR mn) Cash flow from operations 1,256 1,810 1,501 2,646 2,159 2,207 Net working capital (323) 475 (250) (181) (775) (868) Capital expenditure (994) (1,409) (1,012) (648) (743) (849) Free cash flow ,997 1,416 1,358 Investing cash flows (1,000) (1,406) (964) (446) (708) (820) Dividends paid (86) (380) (380) (1,045) (1,045) (1,045) Net borrowings (267) (14) (233) (140) (65) 20 Net cash flow (77) 1, Key ratios Revenue growth (%) 21.7% 11.0% 5.1% 17.3% 12.5% 9.0% Gross profit margin (%) 15.1% 13.0% 11.9% 13.3% 14.3% 14.5% EBITDA margin (%) 10.0% 7.4% 8.9% % 11.0% EBIT margin (%) 7.4% 4.6% 6.1% 7.7% 8.4% 8.5% ROCE % 17.4% 9.7% 12.6% 18.8% 21.7% 21.7% ROE % 15.1% 6.6% 11.2% 14.0% 16.7% 17.0% Payout ratio (%) 34.5% 62.7% 34.1% 69.8% 54.1% 48.5% Debt/equity (%) 18.1% 15.7% 14.5% 6.7% 4.6% 4.3% Gearing (%) 15.3% 13.5% 12.7% 6.2% 4.4% 4.2% Page 2

3 Segmental breakdown Revenue (LKR'mn) Q1 FY 16 Q1 FY 15 YoY growth Manufacturing 2,815 2, % Retail 4,995 4, % Segment Profit/loss after tax (LKR'mn) Manufacturing % Retail % Sensitivity of Target Price to Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate (Five year Treasury bond rate) % 8.00% 8.22% 9.00% 9.50% 2% Growth rate 3% % Valuation assumptions Based on a free cash flow valuation we have arrived at a target price of LKR Our valuations are based on the following assumptions: WACC 11.7% Terminal growth rate- 3% Risk free rate 8.22% Beta 0.76 (based on CCS share price vs. ASPI movement ) Equity risk premium- 5% Page 3

4 Top 20 Shareholders as at 30th June2015 Shareholder No of shares % 1 John Keells Holdings PLC 67,109,128 2 Whi al Boustead (Pvt) Ltd 10,165,392 3 GF Capital Global Limited 2,025,241 4 Standard Chartered Bank Mauritius 1,826,571 5 A N Sethna 789,696 6 Asha Investments Ltd 396,704 7 HSBC Interna onal Nominees Ltd - Deustche Bank 330,000 8 Employees Provident Fund 308,884 9 Life Insurance Corpora on of India 272, Sisira Investors Limited 259, Peoples Leasing & Finance PLC 258, HSBC Intl Nom Ltd-JPMCB-T.Rowe Price Ins tu onalfron er Market Equity Fund 239, M.Radhakrishnan 169, J.R.Printers (Decd) 167, Wakdock Mackenzie Ltd 150, Merrill J.Fernando & Sons (Pvt) Ltd 150, M V Theagarajah 133, Deutsche Bank AG as Trustee for JB Vantage Value Equity Funde 128, M.A.Lukmanjee 127, Mrs H M Mount 125, % 10.7% 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Source: Interim Financial Statements Page 4

5 Financial Analysis Income statement - Ceylon Cold Stores PLC Year Ending 31st March All numbers in LKR 'mn Revenue , , , , E 31, E 33,972 YoY growth % 22% 11% 5% 17% 12% 9% Cost of Sales (17,193) (19,551) (20,797) (24,029) (26,701) (29,046) YoY growth % 18% 14% 6% 16% 11% 9% Gross Profit 3,051 2,925 2,817 3,670 4,454 4,926 YoY growth % 46% -4% -4% 30% 21% 11% Gross profit margin 15% 13% 12% 13% 14% 15% Other Operating Income 1,705 1,784 1,164 1,197 1,202 1,200 Total SG & A expenses (2,115) (2,370) (2,439) (2,707) (3,027) (3,251) YoY growth % 14% 12% 3% 11% 12% 7% Total Depreciation (529) (626) (665) (693) (826) (876) EBIT including non-recurring items 2,641 2,339 1,541 2,160 2,628 2,875 YoY growth % 361% -11% -34% 40% 22% 9% Non-recurring items 1,142 1, EBIT excluding non-recurring items 1,499 1,030 1,439 2,131 2,628 2,875 YoY growth % 162% -31% 40% 48% 23% 9% EBITDA excluding non-recurring items 2,028 1,656 2,104 2,825 3,454 3,752 YoY growth % 103% -18% 27% 34% 22% 9% EBITDA margin 10% 7% 9% 10% 11% 11% EBIT margin 7% 4.6% 6.1% 7.7% 8.4% 8.5% Finance Cost (91) (101) (120) (61) (28) (35) Recurring profit before tax 1, ,443 2,117 2,623 2,870 YoY growth % 192% -32% 52% 47% 24% 9% Income Tax Expense (306) (345) (327) (621) (691) (717) Profit after taxation 1, ,115 1,496 1,933 2,152 YoY growth % 454% -45% 84% 34% 29% 11% NP Margin 5% 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% Earnings per share - BRS adjusted (Note1) Earnings per Share - Reported (Note2) Source: Company Financial Reports and BRS Equity Research Note 1: EPS adjusted for share split, consolidations and non recurring information Note 2: Based on earnings as reported (unadjusted for non-recurring) share data adjusted for splits Page 5

6 Financial Analysis Statement of Financial Position -Ceylon Cold Stores PLC As at 31st March All numbers in LKR 'mn E 2017E Non Current Assets Property, Plant, Equipment 4,072 5,180 5,447 5,365 5,280 5,253 Intangible Assets Other Investments Investment Properties 3,766 5, Investment in associate - - 5,262 5,362 5,366 5,366 Deferred Tax Other Non Current Assets ,124 10,578 11,355 11,355 11,297 11,270 Current Assets Inventories 1,816 2,102 2,065 2,383 2,422 2,836 Trade and Other Receivables 1,657 1,442 1,348 1,481 1,938 2,482 Income Tax Receivables Amounts due from relatd parties Other current assets Short Term Loan to Related Parties Short Term invstents ,013 1,013 Cash and Cash Equivalents ,830 4,257 4,242 5,140 5,928 7,395 Total Assets 11,955 14,836 15,597 16,495 17,226 18,665 Equity and Liabilities Stated Capital Capital Reserves 2, Revenue Reserves 3,473 5,005 8,286 8,764 9,001 10,108 Other components of equity - 3, ,652 1,652 Shareholders funds 7,292 9,175 10,000 10,656 11,571 12,678 Non Current Liabilities Interest Bearing Loans and Borrowings Deferred Tax Liabilities Retirement Benefit Obligations Other non current liabilities Other deferred liabilities ,182 1,153 1,170 1,249 1,313 Current Liabilities Trade and Other Payables 2,439 2,779 2,567 3,121 3,004 3,262 Amounts due to related parties Tax payable Short term loan from related companies Short Term Borrowings Current portion of Long term interest Bearing borrowings Other current liabilities Bank Overdrafts , ,731 4,479 4,443 4,669 4,405 4,674 Total Equities and Liabilities 11,955 14,836 15,597 16,495 17,225 18,665 Source: Company Financial Reports and BRS Equity Research Page 6

7 Financial Analysis Cash flow Statement - Ceylon Cold Stores PLC Year Ending 31st March All numbers in LKR 'mn Cash Flow from Operating Activities EBIT , , , , E 2, E 2, Adjustments for Depreciation Profit on sale of Investment Transfer from Work In Process Amortization of Intangible Assets Provision for Defined Benefit Obligation Profit/loss on Sale of Property, Plant, Equipment Unrealised Foreign exchange Gain (0) Bad debts written off Returnable Containers Breakages and Disposals Deposits for Rreturnable Containers Write back (202) (43) (41) Operating Profit before Working Capital Charges 1,943 1,719 2,086 3,021 3,541 3,824 Changes in working capital (323) 475 (250) (181) (775) (868) Cash Generated from Operations 1,620 2,194 1,836 2,840 2,766 2,956 Interest Paid (91) (101) (120) (61) (28) (35) Income Tax Paid (253) (254) (177) (101) (557) (692) Retirement Benefit Obligation Paid (19) (28) (38) (33) (22) (22) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 1,256 1,810 1,501 2,646 2,159 2,207 Cash Flow from Investing Activities Purchase of Property, Plant, Equipment (994) (1,409) (1,012) (648) (743) (849) Purchace of Intangible Assets (7) (16) (4) (1) - - Net of Staff Loans (28) Interest Received Proceeds from sale of Preperty, Plant & Equipment Net Cash Flows from/(used in) Investing Activities (1,000) (1,406) (964) (446) (708) (820) Cash Flow from Financing Activities Dividends Paid to Equity Holders (86) (380) (380) (1,045) (1,045) (1,045) Dividends Paid to perferance Shareholders (0) (0) (0) Proceeds/repayment of Borrowings (232) (108) (93) (140) - - Repayment of loan - Related Party (21) Net of Long Term Borrowings received (13) 94 (140) - (65) 20 Net Deposit Received for Returnable Containers Proceeds from Issuance of Share Capital Direct cost on Issue of Shares (7) - (1) Net Cash Flows from/(used in) Financing Activities 367 (394) (614) (1,185) (1,110) (1,025) Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash & Cash Equivalents (77) 1, Source: Company Financial Reports and BRS Equity Research Page 7

8 DISCLAIMER Important Disclosures This report was prepared by Strategic Research Limited for clients of Bartleet Religare Securities. Special Disclosures Special Disclosures for certain additional disclosure statements (if applicable). Intended Recipients This report is intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above and may contain information that is confidential and privileged. It is intended only for the perusal of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others who are authorized to receive it. If you are not the intended recipient of this report, you are hereby on notice that any disclosure, dissemination, distribution, copying or taking action relying on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and illegal. BRS, is not liable for the accurate and complete transmission of the information contained herein nor any delay in its receipt. If you have received this in error, please notify us immediately by return and please destroy the original message Analyst Certification Each of the analysts identified in this report certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyses, that the views expressed in this report reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and all of the securities and No part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly dependent on the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The lead analyst has not traded in the company under coverage in the last 21 days nor will trade in the next 21 trading days. If the lead analyst holds shares of the coverage; that will be listed here. Stock Ratings Recommendation Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months Buy More than 10% Hold Between 10% and 0 Sell Less than 0% Expected absolute returns are based on the share price at market close unless otherwise stated. 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9 Bartleet Religare Securities (Pvt) Ltd BRS Equity Research - research@bartleetstock.com Page 9

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