Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2)"

Dwayne Gilmore
5 years ago
Views:

1 Meta analysis real estate - UBS: The appreciation of the Swiss Franc has lowered the competitiveness of Swiss economy. The Swiss owneroccupied housing market will be affeced only slightly by this economic weakening in the short terme. The forecasts for the real estate prices were lowered by -, for condominiums and by -1, for single family houses. - Transaction price indexes FPRE: In the 4th quarter 214 condominium prices raised countrywide by 1,. The increase was strongest in the region Lake Geneva. Prices for single family houses raised by 2,. - Market rents FPRE: In the 4th quarter 214 the market rents for old buildings increased by 2, countrywide. The prices of new constructions are relatively stable (+,). Office space rents increased in all regions of Switzerland, countrywide by 6,. - According to SWX IAZI real estate price index, prices for apartment buildings decreased in the 4th quarter 214 by, (prev. quarter +2,9%). Average single family house prices declined by, (+,8%), condominium prices raised by, (,). - Index of price expectations HEV-FPRE: The 756 experts surveyed in the 4th quarter 214, expect decreasing prices of private property in the following twelve months. After the index for private property noted a negative value for the first time since 9 in the 2nd quarter of 214 (-3, index points), the current value of -23, is considerably lower. Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2) Rented apart., quoted rents (W&P) Rented apart., market rents (FPRE) Office, quoted rents (W&P) Office, market rents (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest & Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest & Partner. Transaction price indexes for condominiums Switzerland (3) Transaction price indexes for single family houses Switzerland (4) CON TP (W&P) CON TP (IAZI) CON TP (FPRE) SFH TP (W&P) SFH TP (IAZI) SFH TP (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Forec.rented ap. / ap.buildings (tot. / av. new constr.) (5) Forecast commercial spaces (total) (6) CS(2) Rents Forecast FPRE(1) UBS(2) W&P(2) CS(2) FPRE(1) Rents Prices Rents Rents Rents Rents Prices Forecast % Office Retail UBS(2) Mieten W&P(2) Rents Forecast private property (total / average new construction) (7) CS(2) Forecast Priv. prop. SFH FPRE(1) UBS(2) CON SFH CON SFH CON Note: market rents / transaction prices (1) resp. quoted rents / prices (2). Source: Credit Suisse, Fahrländer Partner, UBS, Wüest & Partner. For all sources please check the glossary and impressum on the last page. SFH.8% W&P(2) 215 CON. Real Estate? We know tomorrow's trends. Intershop Holding AG Puls 5 Giessereistrasse 18 Postfach 1 31 Zürich +41 () info@intershop.ch

Business conditions: economy Forecast Swiss economy GDP, real Unemployment rate Rate of price increase (8) 215 216 KOF* BAK* UBS* CS* SECO Créa Ø KOF* BAK* UBS* CS* SECO Créa Ø -.5 -.2.5.8 2.1 2.1.8..9 1.

2 Business conditions: economy Forecast Swiss economy GDP, real Unemployment rate Rate of price increase (8) KOF* BAK* UBS* CS* SECO Créa Ø KOF* BAK* UBS* CS* SECO Créa Ø UBS* KOF* CS* BAK* Créa SECO Ø KOF* CS* BAK* UBS* Créa SECO Ø KOF* BAK* CS* UBS* Créa SECO Ø KOF* BAK* Créa CS* SECO UBS* Ø * These forecasts have been modified after the SNBs' decision to abolish the Euro minimum rate (15th January 215). Real GDP and unemployment rate (9) GDP real growth potential unemployment rate - The potential growth lies between 1, and 1,8%, according to calculations by Fahrländer Partner. Note: In June 212, the population census 212 replaced the one of as database. The unemployment rate has been revised retroactively until 21 by SECO. Source: figure 1, page 1, Fahrländer Partner (growth potential). Change in job vacancies (1) % % % % TOTAL Third sector Banking and insurance sector Second sector Mechanical engineering Index of job vacancies TOTAL Banking and insurance sector Real estate sector IT sector Other services Source: FSO. 3rd quater Rate of price increase (11) Inflation forecast SNB Forecast December 214 Libor. Forecast September 214 Libor The Swiss National Bank has once again adjusted its conditional inflation forecast downwards in December 214 compared to September 214. For 214, the SNB has revised its inflation forecast downwards by,1 percentage points to,. For 215, forecast inflation will even turn negative, at,. Only in 216 is inflation expected to rise slightly, to, inflation upper limit price stability (SNB) 3 month libor Source: cf. meta analysis economy, SNB. Link meta analysis economy: Lost in the charts and numbers of the meta analysis? Check our interpretation: Marie Seiler PwC Real Estate Advisory Birchstrasse 5 Zürich

Business conditions: demand indicators Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') (12) 3rd quarter 214 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') 19.

Net immigration monthly (in 1') (13) 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec October 214 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') 1.

3 Business conditions: demand indicators Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') (12) 3rd quarter 214 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Source: FSO (1-9), FOM (21-212). Net immigration monthly (in 1') (13) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec October 214 Net immigration permanent resident population (in 1') Arithmetic mean 212 Arithmetic mean 213 Arithmetic mean 214 Source: FOM. Permanent resident population Switzerland (in m) (14) Total (in m) Swiss (in m) Foreigners (in m) Foreigners (in %) Permanent resident population Switzerland (Swiss) (foreigners) Permanent resident population in m (left column) Source: FSO. Population growth by MS regions (21-213) (15) Note: circle radius in relation to population 213. Maps: FSO Geostat/Swisstopo. Source: FSO, cf. Immobilien-Almanach Schweiz 215.

4 Business conditions: supply indicators Forecast construction activity (16) in m CHF Total Building construction Residential building Civil engineering '4 63'139 63'921 49'155 49'644 5'244 3'34 3'612 3'887 13'325 13'495 13'677 Total Building construction Residential building Civil engineering %.9% 1.7% 1. Source: BAK. Construction index Credit Suisse / SBV (nominal) (17) % th quarter 214 Index (1996=) 1 Construction index total - Building construction - Residential building The construction index is an early indicator of the construction economy in Switzerland which foresees current quarter turnover Residential building Building construction Construction index Source: Credit Suisse, SBV. Production price index (change p.a.) (18) 1 8% % th quarter 214 Index (3=) Stone and concrete construction - Apartment building SFH Build. and commer. constr Change compared to previous quarter The production price index PKI shows the change in production costs Apartment building (stone and concrete construction) SFH (stone and concrete construction) Build. and commer. constr. Source: SBV. Swiss construction price index (change p.a.) (19) nd half year 214 Index (21=) Change compared to previous half year Total building sector Office buildings Apartment buildings The Swiss building price index is an economic indicator which captures the evolution of construction costs as reported by local construction companies. New construction of office buildings Total building sector New construction of apartment buildings Source: FSO.

5 Business conditions: financing and interest rates Expected interest rate (2) Seco KOF Créa Interest rate 3-month-Libor Yields on Confederat. bonds (1 years) Source: Seco, KOF, Créa. Interest rates (21) January month Libor Confederation bonds (1 years) -.9% -. 6 November Saving growth month Libor Confederation bonds (1 years) Saving growth Monet. aggreg. M2 (in bn. CHF, r.s.) Source: SNB. Yields on Confederation bonds (22) normal band Duration 1 year 3 years 5 years 1 years four weeks ago one year ago % % Laufzeit in Jahren four weeks ago one year ago Source: SNB, Fahrländer Partner (normal band). Mortgage rates (23) Mortgage November 214 variable fixed (3 years) fixed (5 years) fixed (1 years) 2.7% % variable fixed (3 years) fixed (5 years) fixed (1 years) Source: SNB. Mortgage volume inland (in bn CHF) (24) 1 November 214 Volume in billion CHF 8% Mortgage claims Volume (right scale) Source: SNB.

6 212:2 212:4 213:2 213:4 214:2 214:4 1986:4 1988:2 1989:4 1991:2 1992:4 1994:2 1995:4 1997:2 1998:4 :2 1:4 3:2 4:4 6:2 7:4 9:2 21:4 212:2 213:4 Share of answers Index points Share of answers Index points Indicators: rented apartments / apartment buildings Market rents rented apartments (RA) Switzerland (25) th quarter 214 Index (=) Changes to previous quarter Lake Geneva Jura Espace Mittelland % Basel Zurich.1 1.8% -. Eastern Switzerland Alps Southern Switzerland % Market rents FPRE (old building) Market rents FPRE (total) Market rents FPRE (new construction) Market rents RA by region (26) Market rents RA by spatial type (27) Lake Geneva Espace Mittelland Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Southern Switzerland Top locations Other agglomerations Rural area Large central agglomerations Touristic regions Quoted rents RA Switzerland (change p.a.) (28) Quoted rents RA by regions (29) Homegate Source: Homegate, Wüest & Partner. Rented apartments (W&P) Lake Geneva Western Switzerland Berne Central Switzerland NW Switzerland Zurich Eastern Switzerland Southern Switzerland Source: SNB, Wüest & Partner. Price expectation apartment rent (next 12 months) (3) Price expectation apartment building (next 12 months) (31) % % % - -% - % % % - -% - Strongly increasing Increasing Decreasing Strongly decreasing Strongly decreasing Decreasing Increasing Strongly increasing Price expectation index (right column) Price expectation index (right column) Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 2nd quarter 212. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.

7 Cyclical outlook from an owner view: apartment buildings Apartment building - Switzerland (32) Old building New construction average New construction upper Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Apartment building (new construction average) - regional (33) Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Alpine area Helptext to the valuations: Fahrländer Partner AG Raumentwicklung Eichstrasse Zürich info@fpre.ch «Immobilien-Almanach Schweiz» On 19 december 214, the guide for Swiss residential and commercial properties markets for the year 215 was published. Order: almanach@fpre.ch Costs: CHF 15 / copy Information:

8 212:2 212:4 213:2 213:4 214:2 214:4 1986:4 1988:2 1989:4 1991:2 1992:4 1994:2 1995:4 1997:2 1998:4 :2 1:4 3:2 4:4 6:2 7:4 9:2 21:4 212:2 213:4 Share of answers Index points Share of answers Index points Indicators: office property Rents for office spaces Switzerland (net rents) (34) Market rents for office spaces by region (net rents) (35) 4th quarter 214 Index (=) Lake Geneva Espace Mittelland 19.5 Basel 96.3 Zurich Changes to previous quarter Office, quoted rents (W&P) Office, market rents (FPRE) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest & Partner. Market rents for office spaces (net rents) (36) Quoted rents for office space (net rents) (37) Lake Geneva Espace Mittelland Basel Zurich Geneva Berne Basel Zurich Source: SNB, Wüest & Partner. Office markets: offer as a % of total space available (38) Direct investments - initial yield (net) for office buildings (39) 7% 8% 7% Switzerland Zurich Geneva Basel Dec. 211 Dec. 212 Dec. 213 Dec. 214 Class A Class B Class C Source: CSL Immobilien. Source: CSL Immobilien. Price expectation office rent (next 12 months) (4) Price expect. commercial and office buildings (next 12 months) (41) % % % - -% - % % % - -% - Decreasing Strongly decreasing Decreasing Strongly decreasing Increasing Strongly increasing Increasing Strongly increasing Price expectation index (right column) Price expectation index (right column) Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE. Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 2nd quarter 212. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.

Cyclical outlook from an owner view: retail and office buildings Office buildings (new construction) - Switzerland (42) Office Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values 214 215 214 215 214

9 Cyclical outlook from an owner view: retail and office buildings Office buildings (new construction) - Switzerland (42) Office Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Office buildings (new construction) - regional (43) Lake Geneva Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Zurich Alpine area All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Southern Switzerland Basel Eastern Switzerland Helptext to the valuations: Sales area - Switzerland (44) Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Sale Sales area - regional (45) Lake Geneva Demand Supply Cash-flow Initial yields Market values Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; Southern Switzerland red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: i Consulting SA Route d'oron Lausanne +41 () info@iconsultingsa.ch

10 1986:4 1988:2 1989:4 1991:2 1992:4 1994:2 1995:4 1997:2 1998:4 :2 1:4 3:2 4:4 6:2 7:4 9:2 21:4 212:2 213:4 Share of answers Index points Indicators: single family houses Price indexes SFH Switzerland (46) Offer prices W&P Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices W&P Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Price indexes SFH (change p.a.) (47) Price indexes SFH Switzerland, market segments (48) % Offer prices W&P Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner Transaction prices FPRE (l. seg.) Transaction prices FPRE (up. seg.) Transaction prices FPRE (av. seg.) Trans. prices FPRE (global) Price indexes SFH Zurich region (49) Price indexes SFH Lake Geneva region (5) Offer prices W&P Trans. prices ZH FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices W&P ZWEX Offer prices W&P (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices GE FPRE (av. seg.) Trans. prices W&P (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans.prices VD FPRE (av. seg.) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest & Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Price expectation single family houses (next 12 months) (51) % % % -% Decreasing Increasing Price expectation index (right column) Strongly decreasing Strongly increasing Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 4th quarter 8. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.

11 1986:4 1987:4 1988:4 1989:4 19:4 1991:4 1992:4 1993:4 1994:4 1995:4 1996:4 1997:4 1998:4 1999:4 :4 1:4 2:4 3:4 4:4 5:4 6:4 7:4 8:4 9:4 21:4 211:4 212:4 213:4 Share of answers Index points Indicators: condominiums Price indexes CON Switzerland (52) Offer prices W&P Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices W&P Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Price indexes CON (change p.a.) (53) Price indexes CON Switzerland, market segments (54) 8% Offer prices W&P Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices IAZI Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Transaction prices FPRE (l. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (up. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (av. segment) Transaction prices FPRE (global) Price indexes CON Zurich region (55) Price indexes CON Lake Geneva region (56) Offer prices W&P Transaction prices W&P Offer prices W&P (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices W&P (Lake Geneva reg.) Trans. prices ZH FPRE (av. segment) ZWEX Transaction prices GE FPRE (av. seg.) Transaction prices VD FPRE (av. seg.) Source: Fahrländer Partner, Wüest & Partner. Source: Fahrländer Partner, IAZI, Wüest & Partner. Price expectation condominiums (next 12 months) (57) % % % -% Decreasing Increasing Price expectation index (right column) Strongly decreasing Strongly increasing Note: structural breaks in the 4th quarter 1996 and the 4th quarter 8. Source: HEV Switzerland / FPRE.

12 Cyclical outlook from an owner view: private property Single family houses - Switzerland (58) Demand Supply Market values Lower segment Average segment Upper segment Single family houses (average segment) - regional (59) Demand Supply Market values Lake Geneva Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations: Condominiums - Switzerland (6) Demand Supply Market values Lower segment Average segment Upper segment Condominiums (average segment) - regional (61) Lake Geneva Demand Supply Market values Jura Swiss plateau (Mittelland) Basel Zurich Eastern Switzerland Alpine area Southern Switzerland All valuations are done from a owner/seller perspective. The circles describe the actual situation: green: unproblematic situation; yellow: some problems; red: problematic situation. Arrows describe the forecast for the following 12 months. : expected improvement; : stable; : expected aggravation. Helptext to the valuations:

13 Sources and glossary Glossary Note Indicator Source Data as of 1 quoted rent 1-5 room apartment Wüest & Partner 4th quarter 214 Market rents rented apartments (total) Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter quoted rent office space Wüest & Partner 4st quarter 214 Market rents office (total) Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter Wüest & Partner 214 IAZI 4th quarter 214 Average segment Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter Cf. forecast below 8-11 Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 12 Quarterly figure of monthly data FSO, FOM 3rd quarter FOM Nov FSO, FOM Immobilien-Almanach Schweiz 215 FSO, FOM Cf. forecast below 17 Nominal change compared to same quarter of previous year Credit Suisse, SBV 4th quarter SBV 4th quarter FSO, FOM 2nd half year Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 21 Cf. meta analysis economy Fahrländer Partner Link 22 SNB SNB Nov Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter Homegate 4th quarter 214 Wüest & Partner 4th quarter SNB/W&P 2nd half year HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter Fahrländer Partner 1st quarter Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter SNB/W&P 2. half year CSL Immobilien HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter Fahrländer Partner 1st quarter Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter 214 Wüest & Partner 214 IAZI 4th quarter HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter Fahrländer Partner 4th quarter 214 Wüest & Partner 214 IAZI 4th quarter HEV Schweiz/FPRE 4th quarter Fahrländer Partner 1st quarter 215 Forecasts The Swiss Real Estate Market Credit Suisse 214 Immobilien-Almanach Schweiz 215 Fahrländer Partner 215 Immomonitoring Wüest & Partner 215 I 1 Hochbauprognose BAKBASEL 213

14 Impressum Disclaimer Impressum Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung (FPRE) elaborates the meta analysis real estate with highest care. Despite this, it is not possible to guarantee the accuracy, correctness, timeliness and completeness of all the information. Also check original sources. The economic data can be found in the current meta analysis economy. The meta analysis real estate is compiled based on the newest available data. Authors: Jaron Schlesinger, Raphael Schönbächler and Carmen Kneubühler You can subscribe for free to the meta analysis real estate: Sponsoring Contact The meta analysis economy is a free service offered by Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung. We offer you the possibility to appear as a sponser in this publication. Please contact us. Fahrländer Partner AG Raumentwicklung Eichstrasse Zürich meta@fpre.ch

Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2)

Rented apartments: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (1) Office space: market and quoted rent indexes Switzerland (2) Meta analysis real estate - Transaction price indexes FPRE: In the 4th quarter 215, prices for private property tend sidewards. Single family houses in the average segment are in all the Swiss regions