Non-U.S. Concentrated Growth
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- Erick Stevens
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1 Cumulative Excess Return % Return % Quarterly Review Composite Performance Periods Ending December 31, Qtr 4 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception At A Glance Inception: April 1, 2009 : MSCI ACWI ex-u.s. AUM: $484.1 million Gross of Fees Net of Fees MSCI ACWI ex-u.s. Inception date: April 1, The value of investments can fluctuate. Data assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Data reflects past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Periods greater than one year have been annualized. Quarterly Top Relative Contributors and Detractors Contributor Detractor Localiza Rent a Car SA 1.09 Bombardier Inc Magazine Luiza SA 0.93 Canada Goose Holdings Inc Don Quijote Holdings Co Ltd 0.84 Lundin Petroleum AB HDFC Bank Ltd 0.39 TDK Corp Diageo PLC 0.33 Recruit Holdings Co Ltd Attribution Analysis One Year Ending December 31, Sector Allocation Security Selection Currency Effect Total Effect
2 Investing With a Time-Tested Growth Philosophy We believe that accelerating growth in revenues and earnings results in significant potential for stock price appreciation. markets are inefficient at identifying such points. Our process is designed to uncover stocks that outperform as earnings growth accelerates, market expectations rise and multiples expand. Goal Seeks to outperform the MSCI ACWI ex-u.s. by 3% to 4% annualized over a market cycle. Risk Guidelines Maximum position size: 5% active weight Regional exposure: +/- 25% of benchmark weight Sector exposure: +/- 25% of benchmark weight Emerging markets exposure: < 50% Expected tracking error: 6% to 8% versus benchmark Investment Process Investment Universe Market capitalization > $3B Sufficient trading liquidity 1 2 Fundamental 3 Idea Generation Identify companies exhibiting accelerating growth and improving fundamentals Fundamental information flow Quantitative screens Analysis Confirm acceleration is genuine and sustainable Construction Focus portfolio on best ideas Monitor risk controls and guidelines Companies 2
3 Characteristics Characteristics Weighted Average Market Capitalization $42.4 B $44.8 B Median Market Capitalization $17.2 B $3.5 B Price To Earnings Ratio, Historical 1 Year 22.7x 12.1x Price To Earnings Ratio, Forecasted 1 Year 21.9x 12.1x EPS Growth, Historical 1 Year 34.2% 26.2% EPS Growth, Forecasted 1 Year 16.5% 10.1% Number of Holdings Number of Countries Turnover, Trailing 1 Year 81% 4% % Cash -0.2% 0.0% Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investment Team Managers - Rajesh Gandhi, CFA - Jim Zhao, CFA Client Managers - Nathan Chaudoin - Bernard Chua, CFA - Laura Granger, CFA - Jim Shore, CFA 8 Investment Analysts Located in New York Top 10 Holdings Holding Country Industry Assets AIA Group Ltd Hong Kong Insurance 4.11 London Stock Exchange Group PLC UK Capital Markets 3.87 Diageo PLC UK Beverages 3.77 CSL Ltd Australia Biotechnology 3.69 Localiza Rent a Car SA Brazil Road & Rail 3.61 Shiseido Co Ltd Japan Personal Products 3.58 Novartis AG Switzerland Pharmaceuticals 3.51 AstraZeneca PLC UK Pharmaceuticals 3.39 Lonza Group AG Switzerland Life Sciences Tools & Services 3.08 Recruit Holdings Co Ltd Japan Professional Services 2.95 Total 35.56% Top 10 Overweights Holding Weight Weight Overweight London Stock Exchange Group PLC Localiza Rent a Car SA AIA Group Ltd Shiseido Co Ltd CSL Ltd Diageo PLC Lonza Group AG AstraZeneca PLC Intertek Group PLC Symrise AG Equity holdings are grouped to include common shares, depository receipts, rights and warrants issued by the same company. holdings subject to change without notice. 3
4 Sector Allocation Weight vs % Sector Health Care Consumer Discretionary Industrials Consumer Staples Communication Services Materials Information Technology Energy Real Estate Utilities Financials Quarterly Sector Performance Contribution to Return vs Sector Contribution to Return Contribution to Return Financials Information Technology Energy Real Estate Utilities Consumer Discretionary Health Care Consumer Staples Materials Communication Services Industrials % When shown, "Diversified" includes portfolio holdings that cannot be attributed to a specific GICS sector. 4
5 Country Allocation: Top 10 Over/Underweights Weight vs % Country United Kingdom Brazil Belgium Sweden Austria France Australia Finland Hong Kong Japan China Singapore Denmark Italy South Africa Spain Netherlands Taiwan South Korea Canada Quarterly Top Relative Contributors and Detractors by Country Contributor Brazil 1.66 China 0.25 Finland 0.13 India 0.07 Taiwan 0.06 Detractor Canada Sweden Japan Switzerland Belgium
6 Percentile Rank Risk-Adjusted Performance Three Year Risk-Adjusted Performance vs. ea ACWI ex-u.s. Large Cap Equity Universe vs. MSCI ACWI ex-u.s., Citigroup 3-Month T-Bill 0 Excess Returns Tracking Error Information Ratio Sharpe Ratio 25 Median American Century Investments Excess Returns Tracking Error Information Ratio Sharpe Ratio Manager Percentile Rank Median Source: evestment Analytics Excess returns are gross of fees. Number of products in the universe was 118. Available Vehicles Separate Account Available in U.S. and certain non-u.s. countries Focused International Growth Fund I Share Class - AFCSX R6 Share Class - AFCMX Investor Share Class - AFCNX Available only in U.S. Available only in U.S. Available only in U.S. 6
7 Quarterly Commentary Market Review Decelerating earnings growth and macroeconomic factors pressured non-u.s. equities. Non-U.S. developed markets suffered double-digit declines in the fourth quarter and ended down for the year. Signs of slowing global economic growth and weaker earnings growth expectations stoked fears of recession and raised risk premiums. Additionally, Brexit-related uncertainty, trade tensions, and falling oil prices also increased volatility in global equity markets. While market declines were widespread, investors generally favored defensive stocks and sectors over higher multiple growth and cyclical stocks. Concerns about a global slowdown drove down stock multiples. Fears about trade, geopolitics, and central bank policies led to contracting price-to-earnings multiples for stocks. These fears manifested into earnings downgrades (the Global Earnings Revision Ratio fell below 1.0 for the first time in several quarters) and weaker fundamentals as seen in weaker global automobile and semiconductor sales, a slowdown in housing-related industries, and slower manufacturing and order intake data globally. existing store footprint to enhance online sales. The company has excelled at integrating online strategy with continued growth in stores. Don Quijote Holdings. Stock of the discount retailer rose in reaction to the final close of its acquisition of UNY stores and the large positive earnings revisions, which resulted as analysts incorporated the anticipated synergies into their models. The company plans to remodel all UNY stores to the Don Quijote format. Key Detractors Bombardier. The stock declined significantly on disappointing results. The company did not offer a strong explanation, attributing missed free cash flow estimates to an inventory build in its rail business. Confidence in our thesis that improvements in business jet demand would drive free cash flow growth diminished, and we sold the stock. Canada Goose Holdings. The stock weakened amid Chinese media reports that recent political tensions between Canada and China could lead to brand boycotts and delayed store openings. However, the company finally opened its first store in China at the end of December, and sales exceeded expectations. Industrials holding weighed on portfolio performance. Canadabased Bombardier declined on disappointing results. The firm missed free cash flow estimates due to inventory buildup in its transportation (rail) business line. We have lost confidence in our thesis, which was predicated on cash flow improvement driven by the business jet cycle and commercial jet improvement. We exited the position. Canada Goose Holdings hurt by political tensions with China. Chinese media reports of potential boycotts and delayed store openings for the successful brand pressured the stock. The situation improved, however, and the company was able to successfully open its first store in China in December. Affirmation of strength in fundamentals drove two Brazil-based stocks higher. Localiza Rent a Car and retailer Magazine Luiza -business election results. Localiza is also supported by continued strong results, while Magazine Luiza is expanding its online and omnichannel initiatives. Key Contributors Localiza Rent a Car. Supported by continued strong results, the initiatives a technology platform for Uber driver rentals, a completely digital rental solution, and a monthly rental offering for retail users could further secure position as a market leader. Magazine Luiza. recent digital and omnichannel initiatives, plans to strengthen logistics to lower delivery costs and time, and leveraging of its Lundin Petroleum. The Sweden-based oil and gas company is one of the lowest-cost producers, and it continues to benefit from new low-cost production coming online. The stock weakened with the rapid decline in the price of oil, but our thesis about the long-term outlook remains intact, so we continue to hold the stock. Notable Trades Novartis. We expect to see accelerating revenue and earnings growth driven by multiple newly launched products and possible approval of products now in late-stage clinical trials. Such growth could offset the effects of upcoming patent expirations for Afinitor and Gilenya. We see potential upside, too, if generics competition for Gilenya is delayed. Thales. We believe this major aerospace and defense company based in France has multiyear revenue growth visibility driven by a supportive European defense budget outlook. In the near term, we expect earnings growth acceleration to be achieved through new acquisitions. Ferguson. We exited our position in Ferguson, a distributor of plumbing and other building supplies, as we see deteriorating conditions in the U.S. residential and nonresidential construction markets. We are concerned about the potential for future negative earnings revisions. Grupo Financiero Banorte. We sold the stock after the bank closed its acquisition of Grupo Financiero Interacciones. The earnings accretion of the acquisition had been fully discounted in consensus estimates, and we saw increased risk from several controversial policies enacted by the newly elected government in Mexico. 7
8 Positioning for the Future Focus on secular growth and idiosyncratic drivers. We remain focused on our disciplined, bottom-up fundamental process of identifying opportunities with accelerating, sustainable growth. In a tougher environment for earnings growth, we are looking for names that we have conviction will exhibit above-average earnings growth through secular drivers rather than through exposure to global economic growth and for companies with self-help potential, such as restructuring plans. Company-specific drivers support positioning in health care. Our investment process has helped identify examples of companies exhibiting earnings growth driven by idiosyncratic factors, including prominent holding AstraZeneca. Additionally, we added Novartis, where we expect new products to accelerate earnings growth, and Terumo, whose broad product line adds to stability of growth and new products will increase revenue. New purchase represents opportunity in consumer discretionary. We added apparel maker Canada Goose Holdings, believing the company can increase market share as it expands into new markets and shifts to a higher-margin company-owned stores distribution plan. China trade war impacting sentiment but not all fundamentals. Concerns over the trade war with China have negatively impacted stock price performance of many of our holdings. Our holdings with exposure to Chinese consumers have not demonstrated weakening fundamentals. We remain fully invested in Shiseido, Treasury Wine Estates, and ANTA Sports Products. Opportunities in emerging markets. We added incrementally to holdings in Brazil, Indonesia, and India as the outlook for emerging markets improves. In Brazil, we own Magazine Luiza and Localiza Rent a Car, which both are benefiting from company-specific initiatives and improved consumer sentiment. In Indonesia, we added Bank Central Asia on improving loan growth data. Holdings in India are benefiting as lower oil prices and decelerating U.S. Due to updates to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) as of September 28, 2018, the telecommunication services sector has been renamed communication services and broadened to include companies that facilitate communication and offer related content. The new sector includes telecommunications companies and select companies previously classified as consumer discretionary or information technology. The changes are reflected in exhibits and written content if applicable. Market correction provides opportunity to add strong secular growers. We reinitiated a position in Keyence, the global leader in factory automation equipment. We purchased LM Ericsson, which is poised to benefit from new capital expenditure cycle in 5G. We initiated Hoya, where market share gains in both eyeglass lens and hard disk drive business is driving growth. 8
9 Composite returns are gross of investment management fees. Sector weights, portfolio characteristics and holdings are of a representative account in the composite. Holdings are current as of the date indicated, are subject to change and may not reflect the portfolio's current holdings. construction guidelines document operational policies and not necessarily investment restrictions imposed on management of the strategy. Material presented has been derived from industry sources considered to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are those of the portfolio investment team and are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments portfolio. Nothing in this document should be construed as offering investment advice. Please note that this is for informational purposes only and does not take into account whether an investment is suitable or appropriate for a specific investor. Source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. For purposes of compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS tment Performance Standards (GIPS ). composite includes portfolios that invest in the equity of large capitalization companies in non-u.s. developed markets that are demonstrating improving growth rates. Index futures (and currency forwards and futures, where applicable or appropriate) are occasionally used to equitize cash and manage portfolio risk. Other derivative instruments may be used, as allowed, as part of the investment strategy. Returns are calculated and stated in U.S. dollars. The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Returns for periods less than one year are not annualized. To receive a complete list of composites and/or a GIPS compliant presentation, contact: American Century Investments 4500 Main Street Kansas City, MO Henrietta Street, 4th Floor London, WC2E 8LH United Kingdom Madison Avenue, 9th Floor New York, NY Suite 3201 Champion Tower 3 Garden Road, Central Hong Kong Charleston Road Mountain View, CA Macquarie Street Suite 1324 Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia Rosecrans Avenue Suite 4345 El Segundo, CA American Century Proprietary Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. IM-FLY
Periods Ending September 30, MSCI ACWI ex-u.s.
Cumulative Excess Return % Return % Non-U.S. Growth (MSCI ACWI ex-u.s.) Quarterly Review Composite Performance 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Periods Ending September 30, 2018 11.5 10.9 10.0 8.8 8.3 6.7 6.1 6.1
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