Agenda. Macroeconomic Environment Credicorp Business Units Summary

Transcription

1 March 2011

2 Agenda Macroeconomic Environment Credicorp Business Units Summary

3 F Real GDP Index 1994 = 100 Continuous growth across different Governments Macroeconomic model has been maintained throughout political changes 250 Peruvian GDP Index across recent Governments 1,2 (1994=100) Presidential elections survey (February 2011) PPK 5% Various* 16% Alejandro Toledo 28% 50 Ollanta Humala 11% 0 Keiko Fujimori 19% Luis Castañeda 19% Fitch ratings BB BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+BBB- *Various includes Other candidates, Undecided and Blank. Source: Datum International S.A. Alberto Fujimori : July 1990 November 2000 Valentín Paniagua: Nov July 2001 Alejandro Toledo: July 2001 July 2006 Alan García: July 2006 July Real GDP growth rate. 2. Mr. Paniagua s Administration was a transitory Government after Alberto Fujimori s resignation Source: Central Bank 3

4 Dic-00 Jun-01 Dic-01 Jun-02 Dic-02 Jun-03 Dic-03 Jun-04 Dic-04 Jun-05 Dic-05 Jun-06 Dic-06 Jun-07 Dic-07 Jun-08 Dic-08 Jun-09 Dic-09 Jun-10 Dic /F F /F Solid Macroeconomic Environment Peruvian GDP growth rate is one of the highest in Latin America this year, accompanied by solid indicators Peruvian Real GDP Growth (%) Real GDP Growth in LatAm (%) Per. Bra. Chi. Col. Mex Real Exchange Rate: LatAm currencies/us$ Peruvian Annual Inflation (%) Peru Colombia Mexico Brazil Source: Central Bank, IMF, Bloomberg, Latin Focus and BCP. 4

5 Potential to Growth Peru s employable population will increase significantly in the next years.opening additional business opportunities 80 or more total population 28 million Women 2017 Men 2017 Women 2007 Men 2007 Employable age -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Source: Peru s socio-demographic profile 2007 Census (INEI) estimated / non statistical information 5

6 Banking penetration also significant growth potential when compared to the region Banking penetration (% of GDP) 78% 75% 62% Total Loans /1 26% 7% 33% 30% 19% 10% 13% 2% 3% 28% 4% 3% 33% Consumer Loans /2 Mortgage Loans /2 Deposits /1 Colombia* Brazil Chile Peru Source: 1/ IMF Financial Access Survey 2009 (Outstanding product with commercial banks an other deposit takers) 2/ Loans as of June 2010, 2010 GDP estimated by IMF *Source for Colombia s figures: Felaban (loans and deposits as of june 2010) and IMF (GDP) Infrastructure Peru Colombia Mexico Argentina Brazil Chile Developed countries Branches per 100,000 people ATMs per 100,000 people na Source: Felaban 2009, except for Mexico y Argentina

7 Growth potential that lies within the Retail banking segment: only 54% of EAP Employed is banked Total Population million Evolution of Employed EAP (million) Urban million Other cities in Peru million EAP Employed million 2006 Banked Population by socioeconomic segment 5.4 million (54%) 9.00 % Banked Population within each socioeconomic segment (2010) E: 4% E: 16% Lima 9.91 million D: 24% D: 31% Rural 7.02 million Rural 7.02 million EAP Unemployed 0.55 million C: 37% C: 48% A + B: 35% A + B: 71% Source: ENAHO, October December

8 The consumer in Lima is getting wealthier Income has improved across all socioeconomic levels. Lima by Socioeconomic Level (% of total population) Monthly Family Income by Socioeconomic Level (in nominal US$) ,534 3, A - High B - Medium C - Upper Low D - Bottom Low E - Marginal , A - High B - Medium C - Upper Low D - Bottom Low E - Marginal Source: Ipsos Apoyo Opinion de Mercado Source: Population statistics and socio economic levels for Lima (Ipsos - Apoyo Opinión de Mercado) Consumers in the top two levels have seen substantial improvement in income. Between 2003 and 2009, 9% of the population of Lima left the bottom two socioeconomic levels. Level C is the most dynamic. 8

9 Peruvian capital markets continue growing Providing a significant source of financing for the country s economic growth and industrialization Private Pension Funds (US$ MM) Mutual Funds (US$ MM) % % 20% 15% % 5.6 5% 4% 3% 15 10% 5% 3 2% 1% 0 0% 0 0% Funds % GDP Funds % GDP An important disintermediation of the banking system has taken place. Private Pension funds and Mutual Funds dropped in 2008 and recovered in 2009 as a consequence of global market values, though real growth in 2009 is also evident. Source: IMF, SBS and CONASEV 9

10 F High growth potential in Asset Management business that seeks to capture increasing wealth that requires asset management products and services... GDP per capita Savings financial system, AFP, mutual funds, and stock market (% GDP) GDP per capita has doubled its value in the last seven years: 200 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 US$ 5,391 (2011 F) vs. US$ 2,600 (2004) Market Capitalization Mutual Funds AFP Microbusiness deposits Banking System 2, , Sources: Central Bank, SBS, Conasev, BCP and IMF 10

11 Latin American insurance industry Insurance penetration and per-capita premiums remain low compared to regional peers Written premiums 2009 (US$MM) PPS + Health + Life 50, % Insurance penetration 21,863 8,815 8, , ,963 1,441 1, Brazil Mexico Argentina Chile Colombia Peru El Salvador Ecuador Panama Guatemala Bolivia Written premiums per capita 2009 (US$) PPS + Health + Life Chile Brazil Panama Argentina Mexico Colombia El Salvador Ecuador Peru Guatemala Bolivia Source: Swiss Re 11

12 High growth potential also in the Insurance sector Since market penetration of insurance products is extremely low Net Earned Premiums (US$ MM) 1,197 1, Life Insurance Premiums in Peru (S/. MM) Pension Group life Individual life 2,707 Annuities 422 1,832 1,587 1,597 1,670 1, , % Life Insurance Premium / GDP (%) Non-life Insurance Premium / GDP (%) 1.6% U.K.: 10.0% U.S.: 3.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% U.S.: 4.5% U.K.: 3.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% Chile Brazil Colombia Mexico Peru Argentina Argentina Colombia Mexico Chile Brazil Peru Source: Sigma El Seguro mundial en el 2009 and SBS 12

13 Agenda Macroeconomic Environment Credicorp Business Units Summary

14 The leading financial holding in Peru with 121 years of experience in the financial sector BCP acquires Banco Popular de Bolivia Credicorp is created and listed in NYSE (BAP) Release of the new corporate identity AFP Unión Vida is acquired Founded as Banco Italiano Latin-American pioneers in providing services through a interconnected and decentralized network Crisis and restructure of the financial system. Reduction of number of banks. Prima AFP is created Acquisition ALICO s stake in PPS and PV It becomes Peru s main financial institution ASHC is created Creation of Pacifico Vida Creation of Pacifico Health (EPS) Acquisition of Financiera Edyficar Nationalization attempt BCP acquires BSCH Perú Changes its name to Banco de Crédito del Perú 14

15 The strongest financial holding in the country with a diversified business portfolio. * Assets: US$ 28.5 billion Net Income: US$ million (2010) Employees: 19, % 100% 75.98% 100% Atlantic Security Holding Corporation 84.87% 100% 21.28% ** AuM: US$ 3.2 billion Deposits: US$ 1.1 billion Employees: % Assets: US$ 25.4 billion NII: US$ million (2010) Employees: 16, % FuM: US$ 9.8 billion Contributions: US$ 987 million (2010) Employees: 800 Assets: US$ 1.8 billion Net Earned Premiums: US$ million (2010) Employees: 2, % 38.00% 99.79% 99.99% * The structure chart shows the main subsidiaries of Credicorp ** Banco de Crédito BCP Bolivia is one of the main subsidiaries of Banco de Crédito BCP Figures as of December Percentages data as of December Source: CONASEV 15

16 Index (1995 = 100) Credicorp results reaffirm strong performance With a recent history of strong asset expansion Crisis Recovery Expansion Average Asset growth 3.3x GDP growth Average Loan growth 3.6x GDP growth Asset CAGR : 2.1% Asset CAGR : 2.6% Asset CAGR : 21.0% Asset Index Loan Index GDP Index Source: Central Bank and BCP 16

17 Diversified shareholder structure With a wide base of private and institutional investors Romero family 17.76% Private and institutional investors 66.83% AFP Integra 8.32% AFP Prima 7.09% Percentages calculated without Treasury shares Percentages estimated as of February

18 Credicorp results reaffirm strong performance With a recent history of strong asset expansion and growing income generation Total Assets &Total Loans (US$MM) Net Income (US$ MM) & ROAE 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 28,451 14, % % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5, % % Total Assets Total Loans Net income ROAE Stock performance price (US$) US$ As of Mar. 15 th ,716 Market Capitalization (US$ MM) 3,265 6,639 3,985 6,143 9,484 8, Mar 15th Sources: Yahoo Finance and Credicorp s Earnings Releases 18

19 Credicorp - Overview A strong Q in loan growth but weaker in net income, though year end figures reflect robust growth overall. (1) Excludes non core operating income from net gain on sales of securities (2) Figures of BCP 19

20 Agenda Macroeconomic Environment Credicorp Business Units Summary

21 Business Units Banking Business Insurance Business Asset Management Business

22 Banco de Credito BCP - Results Seasonality in OPEX in 4Qs, US dollar revaluation and no extraordinary gains put pressure on 4Q s bottom line... (1) Core op. income = op. income non core op. income (2) Includes non core op. income from net gain on sales of securities. 22

23 Banco de Credito BCP - Loan Portfolio BCP reports its highest QoQ loan portfolio growth for 2010 of +7.6%, and robust 24% loan book growth for the Y 23

24 Banco de Credito BCP - Assets & Liabilities Interest Earnings Assets include liquid assets and a well diversified loan portfolio Interest Earnings Assets (Dec. 2010) Funding mix (Dec. 2010) BCRP and other banks 32.7% Savings deposits 18% Severance indemnity deposits 6% Others 3% Due to banks 11% Bonds 13% Current loans 60.2% Trading securities 0.5% Securities available for sale 6.4% Demand deposits 24% Time deposits 25% Source: Credicorp s Earnings Release and BCP Funding Cost: 3Q10: 2.11% 4Q10: 2.10% 73% funded by deposits 24

25 Banco de Credito BCP - Net Interest Income NII up 5.1% QoQ, but accompanied of tighter NIM for 4Q. For the year, NIM could be sustained at 4.8% Interest Income & Interest Expense (US$ MM) Net Interest Income (US$ MM) % +6.5% +10.5% 1, % +20.5% % Q09 3Q10 4Q Net Interest Margin (%) % +9.9% -4.8% 4Q09 3Q10 4Q Interest on Loans Interest on trading securities Other Interest Income Interest on deposits Interest on borrowed fund Other interest expense 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 7.6% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8% 4Q09 3Q10 4Q NIM (avg. assets) NIM (avg. loans) 25

26 Banco de Credito BCP - Portfolio Quality Significant drop in PDL ratio due to lower volume of past due loans & portfolio expansion. Coverage high at 198.5% Total provisions (US$ MM) Q09 3Q10 4Q Gross Provisions Recoveries Reversals Net Provisions 26

27 Banco de Credito BCP - Portfolio Quality An important improvement in all our products. PDL ratio by segment 7.8% 7.8% 6.5% 5.8% 5.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 3.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Wholesale SME (1) Credit Card Consumer Mortgage Edyficar (1): Data for July and August is an estimate due to lack of information from the supervisor. 27

28 Banco de Credito BCP - Non Financial Income Fee income remains flat in the Q though annual figures reveal an increase of 25.5% Non Financial Income (US$ millions) +9.8% % % Non core Non core 35.0 Non core Q09 3Q10 4Q Fee income Net gain on FX transactions Net gain on sales of securities Other income 28

29 Banco de Credito BCP - Operating expenses Higher operating expenses because of seasonality in 4Qs. But efficiency improves in 2010 vs Operating Expenses (US$ millions) +10.9% % +16.3% Q09 3Q10 4Q Efficiency Ratio 53.8% 46.3% 50.9% 51.9% 49.1% Salaries and employee benefits Administrative, general and tax expenses Depreciation and amortization Other expenses Source: Credicorp s Earnings Release 29

30 Banco de Credito BCP - Market Share BCP has consolidated a leadership position in almost all segments. Loans BCP BBVA Peru Scotia Peru Interbank Fallabella Mi Banco Liability products Wholesale Saving Deposits SME / Demand Deposits Mortgage CTS Consumer / Time Deposits Credit Card Mutual Funds Dec-09 Dec-10 1/ BCP includes Edyficar, Scotiabank includes Crediscotia Sources: SBS and Asbanc 30

31 Banco de Credito BCP - Routes to Banking Given the enormous potential to grow in Peru, we have designed two routes to increase banking penetration. Strong franchise in wholesale banking - relatively young retail business Future growth comes from Retail segments Rising population at employable age will increase our potential client base 2 routes to increase banking penetration: Deposits / Liabilities Lending / Assets through our network: Branches and Agentes Edyficar: Our micro finance vehicle to bank lowincome segment Banco de Credito BCP To increase banking penetration in middle and upper segments (Huascarán Strategy) 31

32 Banco de Credito BCP - Routes to Banking 1.- On the liabilities front : strategy to increase our attractiveness for Deposits through our large network. 6,000 Network Expansion 4,999 Agentes? 5,000 Agentes ATMs 4,000 Branches 3,000 2,000 1, ,443 2,242 1,221 3,071 1,851 4,130 2,801 3, , Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Market Share 42.3% 27.7% 21.5% Market Share (%) 31.0% 35.4% 33.9% 38.1% 35.7% Points of contact per 100,000 people (BCP) Points of contact per 100,000 people (System) Source: BCP, Asbanc, INEI 32

33 Banco de Credito BCP - Routes to Banking 1.- Consolidation of Agentes as main tool to increase bank penetration on a basic level. Agentes Agentes Banking System BCP Market Share ,651 1, % ,301 1, % ,701 2, % ,297 3, % 33

34 Banco de Credito BCP - Routes to Banking 2.- On the asset front: introduce lending to the informal/low income level through our micro finance vehicle: Edyficar. 34

35 Banco de Credito BCP - Routes to Banking 2.- On the asset front: introduce lending to the informal/low income level through our micro finance vehicle: Edyficar. SME market share (Dec. 2010) BCP 15.9% Others 34.5% Mi Banco 15.6% *Net shareholders equity includes US$ 50.7 MM of goodwill Edyficar 3.7% CMAC Piura 4.1% CMAC Arequipa 5.0% Crediscotia 5.6% BBVA Peru 6.9% Scotiabank Peru 8.7% Source: SBS, BCP and Edyficar 35

36 Banco de Credito BCP - Aggressive Strategy 2. To increase banking penetration Program Huascaran is our strategy for Consumer Finance.. Initiatives: Credit Collections Credit Card Practices Alliances Commercial Effectiveness Commercial Intelligence Call Center Value Proposition 36

37 Banco de Credito BCP - Aggressive Strategy 2. To increase banking penetration Program Huascaran is our strategy for Consumer Finance by some initiatives. Strategic Topics Initiatives Description Risk Management Credit Collections Develop credit scoring models and review credit policies for approval. Increase follow-up actions and pre past-due strategies. Consumer Finance Credit Card Practices Alliances Maximize selling practices and retention Development of alternative distribution channels and complementary value proposition. Commercial Effectiveness Standardized and sustainable commercial practices. Practices of Commercial Management Commercial Intelligence Call Center Use of cost efficient channels and maximize commercial leads. Increase sales through call center Value Proposition Reinforce value proposition of all our products. 37

38 Banco de Credito BCP - Aggressive Strategy 2. To increase banking Program Huascaran is our strategy for Consumer Finance with tangible results. Credit card sales In units k % Credit Collections 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Credit Card Practices Alliances Commercial Effectiveness Commercial Intelligence Call Center Installment loan sales In US$ million % Value Proposition Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 38

39 Index (1995 = 100) Credicorp s Banking Business - a growth promise High potential to growth due to still low penetration levels. Crisis Recovery Expansion Growth: Asset = 3.9x GDP High growth expected in our Financial System Growth: Loan = 4.5x GDP Loan= 3x GDP Asset CAGR : 2.1% Asset CAGR : 2.1% Asset CAGR : 24.8% GDP Loan Assets 39

40 Business Units Banking Business Insurance Business Asset Management Business

41 Pacifico Peruano Suiza Business results 10.8% stronger for the year though 4Q s contribution 52.9% up in line with larger ownership Breakdown of Total Net Earned Premiums & Net Earnings by line of business (US$ MM) Change % Composition of Combined Ratio** 97.3% 96.8% 94.9% 94.2% 93.8% 4Q09 3Q10 4Q % 21.5% 17.5% % 20.8% 16.6% 4Q % 22.4% 17.1% 3Q % 23.6% 18.9% (1) Before minority interest (2) Includes Médica, an additional company which offers medical assistance services. 4Q % 26.3% 16.9% % 20.00% 70.00% % Loss ratio* General expenses ratio* Adquisition cost ratio* Source: Pacífico Peruano Suiza * With consolidated adjustments (PPS+ Health+Life) ** Without consolidated adjustments (PPS+ Health) 41

42 A previously underperforming business makes headway Outstanding average growth with good prospects for the current period and into the future Written Premiums (US$ MM) PGA P&C Health* Life CAGR = 19% Net Income (US$ MM) PGA CAGR = 4% P&C Health* Life Min. Int *Health includes Medica, an additional company which offers medical assistance services Source: Pacíco Peruano Suiza 42

43 Pacifico Peruano Suiza Risk strategy leads to lower risk retention in lines of high risk, while growing the retail segment... Fire portfolio profile by type of risk (Retained insurance amounts) Dec Dec Dec % 43% 39% 35% 41% 33% 27% 26% High Medium Low 26% Business lines growth (US$ million of premiums) % 40% 47% 50% 50% 55% 45% 40 35% Q-06 2Q-06 3Q-06 4Q-06 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 25% Source: Pacífico Peruano Suiza Corporate Retail Retail Average (%) 43

44 Business Units Banking Business Insurance Business Asset Management Business

45 Prima AFP Reversals of income tax & workers profit sharing provisions favored 4Q s bottom line. Besides, higher annual results: +22.6%... PRIMA AFP Financial Highlights Funds under management (*) Profuturo 14.7% Horizonte 23.4% Integra 30.5% Prima 31.4% Collections (*) , (*) Source: SBS. As of December , (**) Prima AFP estimates. As of December 2010 PRIMA AFP (US$ MM) 9, Q09 3Q10 4Q10 Collections RAM FuM : Real annualized. As of December 2010 Profuturo 17.2% Horizonte 23.9% RAM (**) Profuturo 15.4% Integra 29.2% Prima 33.3% Horizonte 23.6% Integra 25.9% Prima 31.6% 45

46 Atlantic Security Bank Stronger NII for the Q led to a 11.3% stronger Net Income in 4Q, adding to a 49.6% higher results for the Y. Net Income (US$ Million) AuM & Deposits (US$ Million) 5,000 4,270 4,295 ROAE 2010 = 25.8% 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,221 1,250 1,117 2,169 3,021 3,178 3,389 4Q09 3Q10 4Q10 0 Source: ASB Deposits Investments Total 46

47 Agenda Macroeconomic Environment Credicorp Business Units Summary

48 The Credicorp Group Beyond BCP, all subsidiaries are today strong contributors to Credicorp s performance and profitability. MM US$ Earnings Contribution 2010 CAGR 2010 / 2005 Assets Dec ROAE 2010 Market Share Dec Banco de Credito BCP (1) % 25, % 31.6 (2) Edyficar 21.5 n.a % 3.7% (3) ASHC % 1, % n.d. Pacifico % 1, % 34.5% (4) Prima AFP % (5) % 31.4% (6) Credicorp % 28, % n.a. (1) Banco de Credito BCP includes BCP Bolivia and Edyficar (2)Loans market share only for loans booked in Peru, Panama and Miami. (3) SME market share. (4) Net Earned Premium market share as of Nov (5) CAGR 2010 vs (6) FuM Market share. 48

49 Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements This material includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of All statement other than statements of historical information provided herein are forward-looking and may contain information about financial results, economic conditions, trends and known uncertainties. The Company cautions readers that actual results could differ materially from those expected by the Company, depending on the outcome of certain factors, including, without limitation: (1) adverse changes in the Peruvian economy with respect to the rates of inflation, economic growth, currency devaluation, and other factors, (2) adverse changes in the Peruvian political situation, including, without limitation, the reversal of market-oriented reforms and economic recovery measures, or the failure of such measures and reforms to achieve their goals, and (3) adverse changes in the markets in which the Company operates, including increased competition, decreased demand for financial services, and other factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements which may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof, including, without limitation, changes in the Company s business strategy or planned capital expenditures, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. 49

50 March 2011

51 Banco de Credito BCP Loan Portfolio BCP s loan growth reveals the reactivation of investment activity and consumption 51