Grads Grads Everywhere by Avery Shenfeld

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1 Grads Grads Everywhere by Avery Shenfeld The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Economics Avery Shenfeld (416) Benjamin Tal (416) Peter Buchanan (416) Warren Lovely (416) Emanuella Enenajor (416) Andrew Grantham (416) We ve steadily ramped up the number of years of post secondary education, without achieving much. h t t p : / / r e s e a r c h. cibcwm.com/res/eco/ EcoResearch.html We welcome the Canadian federal government s recognition of the fact that a growing skills gap is hampering progress in both labour markets and economic growth. Indeed, this week s budget cited some of the findings in CIBC s recent report on this very issue. But while Ottawa plays a role in the education and training, it clearly felt constrained in the extent to which it could offer additional money, rather than simply reallocated funding towards it. Moreover, it s the provinces, through their administration of post-secondary education, that dominate that file. And it s in that role that the greatest progress can be made in matching Canadians skills to what the labour market is seeking, without necessarily spending any more money in the process. We ve steadily ramped up the number of years of post secondary education, without achieving much. Look back a generation, and lawyers and doctors did two years of undergrad before entering their professional schools. Now, we re letting admissions officers favour those with more years of schooling, even to the point where students are doing masters degrees before getting into med school. Is that additional education, still subsidized by the province, giving us better doctors? Provinces also control the number of spaces in each program through their funding of colleges and universities, but have not been particularly diligent in matching resources to job prospects. Why are we still churning out so many education grads in provinces where the government, through its role in primary and secondary education, knows it won t need them? Law schools can t find articling jobs for their upcoming grads, and there s a plan in Ontario to keep them in school longer as an alternative. Closing down law school spaces, and opening more in computer engineering, nursing or even business, might make more sense. What about the art history BA who ends up working as a grocery store clerk? not that there s anything wrong with either the field of study or the job itself. The problem here is that to some extent, a BA no longer provides an employer the same sort of signal about general capabilities as it did two generations earlier, when post-secondary educational attainment was rarer. University grads still have a lower jobless rate, but the gap is closing (Chart). We ll have to decide as a society whether we value that education for its own purpose, rather than as a career booster, how much we should subsidize it, or whether we want to redirect those funds to creating more spots in career-oriented colleges. That too, is a question for the provinces. More Grads, Smaller Advantage 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% University Degree Holders (share of population 15 yrs +) % Jobless Rate (%) Total University Degree Holders Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC CIBC World Markets Inc. PO Box 5, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 WGEC1 (416) C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p 3 M a d i s o n A v e n u e, N e w Yo r k, N Y ( ) , ( 8 )

2 Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast CANADA UNITED STATES CIBC Consensus Prior CIBC Consensus Prior Monday AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $35B, 6-M BILLS $3B March 25 8:3 AM CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX (Feb) (M) -.3% Speaker: 1:15 PM Ben Bernanke (Chairman) Speaker: 12:15 PM William C. Dudley (New York, Vice Chairman) Tuesday CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'13 - Jun'14) - $1B AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $45B (prev) March 26 AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $7.4B, 6-M BILLS $2.8B, 1-YR BILLS $2.8B AUCTION: 2-YR TREASURIES $35B (prev) 8:3 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Feb) (H) 3.9% 3.8% -4.9% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Feb) (H) -1.%.7% 2.3% 9: AM S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX (Jan) (H) 146. S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Jan) (H) 7.9% 6.8% : AM RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Mar) (M) CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Mar) (H) : AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR (Feb) (H) 4K 424K 437K NEW HOME SALES M/M (Feb) (H) -3.% 15.6% Wednesday AUCTION: -YR CANADAS $2.9B AUCTION: 5-YR TREASURIES $35B (prev) March 27 8:3 AM 7: AM CPI M/M (Feb) (H).7%.7%.1% MBA-APPLICATIONS (Mar 22) (L) -7.1% CPI M/M (Bank of Canada core) (Feb) (H).4%.4%.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb) (H).8%.8%.5% : AM CPI Y/Y (Bank of Canada core) (Feb) (H) 1.% 1.% 1.% PENDING HOME SALES M/M Speaker: 1: PM Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis) Speaker: 12:15 PM Sandra Pianalto (Cleveland) Speaker: 11:3 AM Eric Rosengren (Boston) Thursday 8:3 AM AUCTION: 7-YR TREASURIES $29B (prev) March 28 GDP M/M (Jan) (H).2%.1% -.2% INDUSTRIAL PROD. PRICES M/M (Feb) (M).5%.% 8:3 AM RAW MATERIALS M/M (Feb) (M) 2.% 3.8% CONTINUING CLAIMS (Mar 17) (L) 342K 353K INITIAL CLAIMS (Mar 24) (H) 34K 336K GDP (annualized) (Q4 P) (H).4%.5%.1% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 P) (H).9%.9%.9% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI (Mar) (M) Friday Good Friday (Holiday) - Markets Closed Good Friday (Holiday) - Stock Market Closed March 29 8:3 AM PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (Feb) (H) 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (core) (Feb) (H) 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% PERSONAL INCOME M/M (Feb) (M) 1.4%.8% -3.6% PERSONAL SPENDING M/M (Feb) (M).6%.6%.2% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar) (H) H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Consensus Source: Bloomberg `

3 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Week Ahead s Market Call by Avery Shenfeld In the US, personal income and consumption will show reasonably solid results for February, although in real terms consumption will look more muted. Durable orders could disappoint in the ex-transport tally after such heated prior gains. Bernanke speaks in London, but don t expect a lot of fresh insights on monetary policy given the academic venue. In Canada, CPI inflation has had a run of very low readings, and the February data will still leave both core and headline at or below the bottom end of the Bank of Canada s 1-3% steering range. Still, a policy ease is extremely unlikely given the Bank s distaste for ramping up household debt. GDP for January could get enough help from the energy sector to nudge up a bit better than muted expectations. But we still are tracking below where we anticipated when we put out our 2% forecast for the quarter. 3

4 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Week Ahead s Key Canadian Number: Real GDP (at Basic Prices) January (Thursday, 8:3 a.m.) Emanuella Enenajor (416) CIBC Mkt Prior GDP m/m.2%.1% -.2% Canadian GDP at Basic Prices % % Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13F Month/Month (L) Year/Year (R) Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC After December s GDP flop, the economy likely gained by.2% January, helped by rising energy-sector output. Alberta oil production looks to have increased based on exports data. Weighing on growth, factories saw weak sales, although production may not have been as badly hit given rising inventories. The flat retail sales print for the month was offset somewhat by a.4% gain in wholesale volumes. Forecast Implications While a.2% January gain would recoup the ground lost in December, Q1 GDP growth would track only a 1 ½% pace, weaker than we initially anticipated. Market Impact We are slightly above the consensus, which could dent fixed income if we are right. Other Canadian Releases: Consumer Price Index February (Wednesday 8:3 a.m.) While growth-side data continue to rank highest on the list of important economic indicators, surprisingly tame inflation releases have also captured attention and inspired a more dovish tone to the Bank of Canada s policy stance. However, unlike the last three months where the consensus overestimated inflation, February s jump in prices at the pump likely pushed up consumer prices by.7% (+.4% NSA), seeing inflation edge three ticks higher to.8%. While food costs may have risen, reflecting some producers passing on the earlier increases in raw food inflation, core prices likely rose by.1% (+.4% NSA) tracking the higher end of recent monthly trends seeing core inflation stable at 1.%. Adding noise to the month s data release, Statistics Canada is updating the CPI basket weights in the February release to reflect more recent household spending trends.

5 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Week Ahead s Key US Number: Durable Goods Orders February (Tuesday, 8:3 a.m.) Andrew Grantham (416) CIBC Mkt Prior Durable goods, m/m 3.9% 3.8% -5.2% ex transportation, m/m -1.%.9% 1.9% US Durable Goods Orders % % Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13F m/m % change (L) y/y % change (R) Outside of the volatile transport sector, US durable goods orders started 213 strongly in a positive sign for capital spending. February s data could see those trends change course. Airplane orders appear to have rebounded strongly after a slow start to the year. But altitude in other areas could be harder to maintain. Very rarely, even in the relatively calm pre-recession waters, have ex-transport orders risen for six consecutive months. A staggering 13% jump in machinery orders during January could at least partly reverse in February, and drive a 1% decline in ex-transport orders overall. Forecast Implications A reduction in ex-transport orders may simply demonstrate volatility that often comes with this series, rather than the start of a new trend. The underlying trend in durable goods orders, and as a result the near-term outlook for capital spending, would still look a lot brighter than in the middle of last year. Market Impact We expect limited market reaction to this figure. Other US Releases: Personal Income & Outlays February (Friday, 8:3 a.m.) Strong retail sales in February were partly flattered by a spike in prices, particularly at the pumps. Therefore, although consumer spending may have risen by a seemingly healthy.6%, growth in real terms could be a much more mediocre.1%. Personal incomes could be up 1.4%, supported by higher wage growth and the delayed payment of tax rebates. That would edge the savings rate up a touch, after it fell below 2.5% in January. 5

6 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Equity Insights Peter Buchanan Shiller PE and Outlook for US Stocks Alan Greenspan down played fears the market s rise might be another case of irrational exuberance this week. Based on a key metric, investors might nonetheless be well advised not to bet on a reprise of the steady, impressive momentum seen through much of the maestro s long and storied tenure. Yale professor Robert Shiller s cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) divides the S&P 5 by trailing -year real earnings, to dampen business cycle effects. The current reading of 22.8, against the median of 16 since 1881, suggests a real total return of about 2% annually (4-4½% nominal) in large cap US stocks over the next decade. In arriving at that result, we ve taken the expected real capital appreciation implied by a regression on the historical data. We ve then added to that a just over 2% lift from dividends, consonant with recent trends. Capitalizing on the Shifting Consumer Spending Dollar One thing that clearly hasn t looked exuberant is Canadian retail sales. That may in part be a welcome sign that households are belatedly paying needed attention to their stretched balance sheets. Beyond that, changing consumption patterns may also be having an effect, limiting trips to the mall. Excluding housing, the share of services in Canadian consumer spending has risen from just over a third in the early 199s to nearly half currently. Several factors are driving the trend, including an aging population, new technologies, and rising income levels. About 4% of the TSX basket of consumer stocks consists of service providers (5% if health is included). Such sectors accounted for 6% of profit growth in the year ended. So investors may be able to capitalize on households shifting needs and tastes within the Canadian equity space simply by adjusting their stock weightings. Updated Readings on Corporate Canada s Health While record household debt got the closest attention, StatCan s just-released national balance sheets once again provided a useful update on Corporate Canada s financial health. With the latest revisions, the numbers point to a modest rise in the debt-to-equity level for non-financial entities in the last 2-3 quarters. Still, the larger story that Canadian balance sheets are in far better shape than 15-2 years ago remains intact. At 56% in Q4, Canadian debt-to-equity ratios continue to compare very favourably with the US. Historical Relationship Between US Real Stock Prices and Shiller PE, 1881 to Present Annual % ch in stock prices, next decade Cdn Consumers Spending More on Services (L); Fast Growing Areas That Could Present Opportunity (R) :Q2 % of total* 93:Q1 *excluding rental and owner-occupied housing 95:Q4 98:Q3 1:Q2 4:Q1 6:Q4 9:Q3 12:Q2 Canadian Balance Sheets Remain Relatively Lean :Q y = x :Q3 9:Q1 9:Q3 :Q1 :Q Source: Shiller, CIBC Annual % spending ch, last 5 yrs 11:Q1 Shiller PE = 22.8 currently Cyclically-Adjusted PE Ratio 11:Q3 Educat/Training Health, Medical Comm/Internet Personal Care Recre, Cultural All goods Source: StatCan, CIBC Debt-Equity Ratio, non-financial corporations, (%) 12:Q1 12:Q3 Canada, revised previous estimate US Source: StatCan, FRB, CIBC

7 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 Currency Currents Andrew Grantham and Emanuella Enenajor Canada s Factory Sector Doesn t Just March to Orders Despite the week s disappointing factory shipments release showing yet another month of slumping sales, a surge in unfilled orders raised hopes for some that the sector, beleaguered by an elevated currency, could be poised for an outsized liftoff. Unfortunately, that s likely not the case. The surge in unfilled orders was driven entirely by aerospace products a sector that in the grander scheme of things, accounts for a miniscule 3% share of total factory sales. So while factory sales could snap back next month on rebounding vehicle production and edge higher on a continued US recovery, don t expect the sector to be ripe for a liftoff based on the misleading unfilled orders data. BoE Still on a Leash, But Risks Remain For Sterling Fear that the BoE was going to be given free rein to ignore its inflation mandate, to focus on stimulating the economy, was one factor behind sterling s demise in early 213. However, with the BoE s mandate loosened only slightly at the budget, and a rare upside surprise coming from retail sales, the pound continued a minirevival. But that is all it may turn out to be. The budget projections show fiscal targets continuing to be missed, with government debt-to-gdp not projected to be falling until the fiscal year now two years behind the Chancellor s initial target. That opens the door for further sovereign downgrades, which combined with renewed growth disappointments could see GBPUSD retreat back below 1.5. Chasing the Yen Too Far Since late last year, the sharp deprecation of the yen has caught forecasters off guard and consensus expectations have struggled to keep pace. The latest projections once again show a modest weakening from current levels. However, the yen has paused for breath in recent weeks, with volatility low compared to three month ago levels. Breaking through could prove much more difficult to achieve than the move in USDJPY so far, requiring a further driver. The bar is already set high for the new BoJ governor ahead of an April 3-4 meeting, and potential disappointment would restrict selling pressure on the yen. Surge in Unfilled Orders Driven by Aerospace (L) A Relatiavely Small Category (R) Jan-25 Jan-29 Jan-213 Manufacturing Sales (212) Aerospace Other (exaerospace) Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC Inflation Expectations Had Surged as Sterling Retreated (L); Chancellor Now Two Years Behind Debt Target (R) % GBPUSD Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan year breakeven (L) Sterling (R) Source: Bloomberg, OBR, CIBC Consensus Having to Chase Yen Depreciation (L), But Recent Calm Cautions Against Chasing too Far (R) C$, bns Manufacturing Unfilled orders Manufacturing Unfilled Orders (ex-aerospace) Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep JPY AUD GBP EUR CAD CHF MXN OBR Projections of Net Debt (% GDP) Target Year for Decline Mar'13 Dec'12 Mar' Financial Years USDJPY Dec Consensus Forecast BRL Feb Consensus Forecast Recent consensus Implied minus Historic 3m volatility Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

8 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES March/April 213 MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY INT L TRANSACTIONS IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET 8:3 AM BONDS MONEY STOCKS TOT KET NOV DEC JAN HOUSING STARTS 8:15 AM s (AR) TOTAL SINGLES JAN BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY :3 AM SURVEY OF MANUFACTURING 8:3 AM SHIPMENTS M Y NOV DEC JAN WHOLESALE TRADE 8:3 AM Saskatchewan Provincial Budget GDP New Brunswick Provincial Budget Newfoundland Provincial Budget CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 8:3 AM M (NSA) Y DEC JAN.1.5 Payroll employment, Earnings & Hours 8:3 AM INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 8:15 AM $BN $BN CHANGE LEVEL JAN SURVEY OF CONSUMER 19 All data seasonally adjusted except where noted NSA. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada. RETAIL TRADE 8:3 AM (Current$) M Y NOV DEC JAN BY INDUSTRY 8:3 AM (22$) GDP IND.PROD. M M NOV.3 1. DEC JAN INDUSTRIAL PRICES 8:3 AM M (NSA) Y DEC..3 JAN. -.2 WAGE SETTLEMENTS : AM (%) PVT. PUB. TOT. NOV DEC JAN Nova Scotia Provincial Budget GOOD FRIDAY (HOLIDAY) (Markets Closed) LABOUR FORCE SURVEY 8:3 AM AVG EMPLOY UNEMP HRLY (HSHOLD) RATE EARN M Y % Y JAN MERCHANDISE TRADE 8:3 AM $MN 12 MO. BALANCE DEC ,64 JAN ,357 IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX : AM BUILDING PERMITS ($) 8:3 AM M M (RES) (NON-RES) DEC JAN MANUFACTURING 8:3 AM SHIPMENTS M Y DEC JAN INT L TRANSACTIONS IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET 8:3 AM BONDS MONEY STOCKS TOT KET DEC JAN Manitoba Provincial Budget Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Bank of Canada Governor press conference Canadian Federal Budget NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX 8:3 AM PRICE INDEX 8:3 AM M (NSA) Y JAN.1.5 WHOLESALE TRADE 8:3 AM

9 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES March/April 213 MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY ISM MFG SURVEY : AM COMP. PRICES INDEX INDEX JAN LIGHT VEHICLES SALES MIL (AR) Y JAN ,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS 9: AM 3-,--Yr NOTE ANNOUNCE. 3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCE LEADING HOUSING STARTS 8:3 AM MIL (AR) M DEC JAN FOMC Meeting Begins BOT (9:) REDBOOK (8:55) FOMC Rate Decision All data seasonally adjusted except where noted NSA. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board. 9 INDICATOR : AM EXISTING HOME SALES : AM PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX : AM 2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:3) DURABLE GOODS ORDERS 8:3 AM M Y DEC JAN S&P/CASE-SHILLER HOUSE PRICE INDEX 9: AM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE : AM NEW HOME SALES : AM 2-Yr NOTE AUCTION 5-Yr NOTE AUCTION GDP 8:3 AM (AR) REAL IMPLICIT GDP DEFLATOR 12:Q3(F) :Q4(A) :Q4(P) CORPORATE PROFITS 8:3 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:45 AM 7-Yr NOTE AUCTION BOT (9:) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:3) GOOD FRIDAY (STOCK KET CLOSED) PERS. INC & OUTLAYS 8:3 AM SAVING INCOME CONS RATE M M AR DEC JAN MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F) 9:55 AM EMPLOY. 5 FACTORY ORDERS : AM M(SA) Y(NSA) DEC JAN ADP SURVEY 8:15 AM ISM NON-MFG SURVEY : AM 3-,--Yr NOTE ANNOUNCE. 3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCE. BOT (9:) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:3) SITUATION 8:3 AM NON- CIV AVG FARM UNEMP HRLY PAYROLL RATE EARN (s) M % Y JAN GOODS & SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B 8:3 AM GDS SERV TOT DEC JAN CONSUMER CREDIT 3:PM Yr NOTE AUCTION -Yr NOTE AUCTION FOMC Minutes 3-Yr BOND AUCTION MONEY SUPPLY M-2 4:3 PM M Y JAN BOT (9:) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:3) RETAIL SALES 8:3 AM M Y JAN PPI 8:3 AM M (SA) Y (NSA) JAN TREASURY BUDGET 2: PM BUSINESS INVENTORIES : AM MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P) 9:55 AM CPI 8:3 AM M(SA) Y (NSA) JAN HOUSING STARTS 8:3 AM MIL (AR) M JAN CAPACITY UTIL/IND. PROD. 9:15 AM LEV M Y JAN Beige Book LEADING INDICATOR : AM PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX : AM 2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT BOT (9:) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:3)

10 CIBC World Markets Inc. The Week Ahead March 25-29, 213 This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, CIBC ) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major Institutional Investors ( MII ) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. U.S. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer). This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets Inc. in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any information contained in this report, the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient s particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC suggests that, prior to acting on any information contained herein, you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own tax advisors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient s convenience and information, and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. 213 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution.