PRESENTATION FOR INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS

Transcription

1 PRESENTATION FOR INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS

2 FINANCIAL RESULTS AFTER 1H 23* IH 22 IH 23 Change Total revenues (PLN mln) ,2% Interest income (PLN mln) ,% Non-interest income (PLN mln) ,8% Costs (PLN mln) ,% Operating income (PLN mln) ,2% Cost of provisions (PLN mln) ,6% Net income (PLN mln) ,5% ROE (%) 5,4 14,4 +9, p.p. Cost/Income (%) 45,9 53, +7,1 p.p. * unaudited, PAS 1

3 Macroeconomic environment 2

4 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT GDP Growth 2,3,9,8,2,5,9 1,8 2,2 2,2 3, In the second quarter we could have observed the acceleration in economy growth which, started at the turn of second and third quarter 22. GDP growth in the third quarter we can estimate at 3%. 1Q 1 2Q 1 3Q 1 4Q 1 1Q 2 2Q 2 3Q 2 4Q 2 1Q 3 2Q 3 Dynamic of PLN/EURO rate and dynamic of 12M export 13, 13,3 11,3 1,3 1,3 1,1 99,91, 99,7 99,7 99,4 114,1 114, 113,7113,3 17,4 1,3 11,3 99,8 11, 111,3 11,5 11,7 12,8 113,4 13,3 116,2 13,8 12,7 12, 14,3 123,8 12,7 14,1 14,6 15,3 The most significant factor supporting acceleration in GDP growth was export dynamic. High dynamic of export results from: PLN rate relate to EURO. Shift of demand on European markets towards cheaper goods (strong point of Polish export). XII 1 I 2 II III IV V VI EXPORT VII VIII IX X XI XII I 3 II III PLN/EURO IV V VI 3

5 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT LOMBARD RATE, REDISCOUNT RATE, INTERVENTION RATE AND INFLATION RATE 15,5 14, 11,5 3,6 8,75 7,5 6,75 6,75 5,75 5,25,8,3,8 XII 1 I 2 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I 3 II III IV V VI Lombard rate Rediscount rate Interv ention rate Inflation Low inflation has been accompanied by adequate monetary policy. In the first half the reference rate was reduced by 15 bp. Inflation decreasing trend is changing and limits the possibility for further interest rates reduction. 4

6 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Dynamic of households and corporate lending in the Polish banking sector (corresponding month of previous year = 1%) 114,7 13,7 117,7 115,5 12,1 18,4 11,2 18,6 11,4 18,3 17,2 18,4 13, Dynamic of private household credits has remained on the relative stable level about 8%. We can see the first signals of revival in the lending for corporates (growth by 3%). at the end of month 98,2 XII 1 I 2 II III IV V VI VII VIII Households IX X XI Corporates XII I 3 II III IV V VI 116,4 16,7 Dynamic of households and corporate deposits in the Polish banking sector (corresponding month of previous year = 1%) at the end of month 14,9 13,3 112,9 11,5 11,8 95,2 11,4 96,1 111,4 94,2 116,3 93,3 Visible improvement of financial accumulation ability in corporate sector - growth of their deposits reach the highest level for the one and half year. Some slowdown of decrease of the rate of private households deposits. XII 1 I 2 II III IV V VI VII VIII Households IX X XI XII Corporates I 3 II III IV V VI 5

7 Financial results after first half 23* * unaudited, PAS 6

8 BALANCE SHEET CHANGES PLN bil 75, - 1,6% ASSETS 6, 45, 3, 15,, PLN bil 75, LIABILITIES 6, 45, 3, 15,, 31,8 29,6 28, 2,6 21,2 22,4 7,3 7,1 6,7 6,9 6,9 6,7 1H H23 6,4 7, 6,9 51,4 5, 48,4 4,2 4,6 3,6 4,1 3,7 4,8 Net loans * Debt securities* Amounts from banks* Other Capital Deposits and bonds issue * Amounts due to banks * Other Assets decreased by 1.6% in 1H 23. The assets change has been accompanied by debt securities growth and loan portfolio decrease. Deposit base decrease compensated by the growth of assets under PPIM management. Change of the capital level caused by payment of the dividend and retention of income of the current period. * incl. interests 7

9 LOAN PORTFOLIO PLN mln 7 4 Retail loans* % % % - 4,6% Retali loans - decrease of total loans portfolio; mortgage loans growth Focus on PLN loans to reduce the risk Mortgage Overdraft Other 1H Corporate loans* PLN mln % % The change in loans portfolio of corporate customers results from: decrease of central investment loan (PLN 91 mln), decrease of loan portfolio in foreign branches by PLN 637mln, resulted mainly from liquidation of NY branch, decrease of the other loans by PLN 626 mln. 22 CIL Other Foreign branches 1H23 * capital 8

10 SAVINGS OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS 44 41,9 42 4,5,6 PLN mln 4-2,1 2, Deposits Investment funds Bonds 1H 23 18,2% 18,% Market share Change of savings preference. Flow of savings from traditional products to alternative savings products. Insignificant decrease of market share in the savings of private households market. 9

11 DEPOSIT BASE Retail deposits* - 4,2% PLN mil 4 2 PLN mil Corporate deposits* +,1% FX PLN Bonds FX PLN PLN 2.1 bln decrease of retail deposits since the beginning of the year. PLN.6 bln of financing obtained in result of bonds issue in 1H 23. Further growth of investment funds - total assets under PPIM management increased by PLN 2.9 bln in 1H 23. Decrease of market share in private households savings by.2 p.p. to 18.% in 1H 23. Stable corporate deposits * capital 1

12 INVESTMENT FUNDS Investment funds under PPIM* management PLN mln Growth of assets under PPIM management y-o-y by PLN 5. bln ( by PLN 2.9 bln in I half 23) Q 2 2Q 2 3Q Q 3 2Q 3 Market share 27% 26,6% 24,% 24,4% 24,9% 25,1% 23,9% 22% 23,2% Strong distribution channel and widen product offer resulted in growth of market share to 26.6%. 17% 12% 21 1Q 2 2Q 2 3Q Q 3 2Q 3 * PPIM - Pioneer Pekao Investment Management 11

13 REVENUE GROWTH Net interest margin (incl. SWAP) Structure of changes in total revenue % ,9 4,7 4,6 4,2 4, PLN mln ,% + 8,9% - 25,8% -9,2% % 25% 2% 15% 2Q 22 3Q 22 4Q 22 1Q 23 2Q 23 Share of fees and commissions to total revenue 24,% 23,7% 28,8% 1H H 3 9 1H 22 Net interest income Net commission income Other 1H 23 Decrease of total revenue by 9.2%. Significant pressure on net interest margin caused: Scale of the change in deposit and loan activity do not compensate decrease of interest rates. Significant decrease of revenue from SWAP operations. Continued redemption of high-yield transactions. Growth of revenue from fees and commission. Higher income on other activity. 12

14 INTEREST INCOME AND SPREAD mln zł ,7 Interest income on loans 28,8 25,9 272,8 266,4 264,3 mln zł ,1 Interest income on deposits 49,2 351,2 285,6 271,1 242,7 mln zł Interest income - other ,7 13,8 13,6 127,7 74,6 45, IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 5 Spread on loans [%] 5 Spread on deposits [%] 5 Spread on debt securities [%] 2,5 2,2 2,1 2,7 3, 3, 3, 2,5 3,1 2,8 2,3 2, 1,9 1,7 2,5 2,2 2,1 2,3 2,4 2, 1,1 IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 IQ 2 IIQ 2 IIIQ 2 IVQ 2 IQ 3 IIQ 3 13

15 COMMISSION INCOME Other Cards Investment funds Accounts Loans mln zł ,6% Q 2 2Q 2 3Q 2 4Q 2 1Q 3 2Q 3 Continuation of the structure s change of the income from commission. Commission from investment funds distribution amounted 14.4% of total commission. Share of commission from loan activity decreased y-o-y from 21.4% to 14.7%. 14

16 OTHER INCOME PLN mln ,8% H 22 Income from shares Financial operations Foreign exchange income Other 1H 23 Other income amount just 13.7% of total income. Growth of income from share comes mainly from Polcard shares sale in I quarter 23. FX income after exceptionally good 1H

17 STRUCTURE OF COSTS CHANGES PLN mln ,3% +3,7% + 26,8% + 19,% + 5,% +1,2 + 6,8 +13,9 +29, H 22 Personnel Non-personnel Depreciation BFG 1H 23 Growth of depreciation costs as main result of total cost growth. Higher fees for services is the main reason of non-personnel costs growth. Increase of personnel costs as result of rationalisation of employment and higher provisions from motivation part of salary in comparison to exceptional last year. 16

18 OPERATING EFFICIENCY Costs / income 58% 53,% 48% 45,9% + 7,1 p.p. Operating income 38% 28% 12% 1H 22 1H 23 Fees and commissions/ Personnel costs PLN mln ,2 % 952 1% 11,2% 14,8% 19,7% 12,% 18,7% 1H 22 1H 23 8% 6% IIQ 2 YTD IIIQ 2 YTD IVQ 2 YTD IQ 3 YTD IIQ 3 YTD 17

19 ASSETS QUALITY Irregular loans 19,7% 19,7% 19,9% 21,% 21,8% % 47% 37% 27% 17% 7% ,5% 53,5% Q 2 3Q Q 3 2Q 3 Lost Doubtful Sub standards Provision coverage ratio 56,9% 56,5% 55,2% 2Q 2 3Q Q 3 2Q 3 Decrease of irregular loans volume in 2Q 23 by PLN 27 mln. Growth of irregular loans ratio caused by decrease of total loan portfolio volume. Provision coverage ratio on the stable level above 55%. 18

20 ASSETS QUALITY Provision coverage ratio Share of loans which are normaly serviced clasified as irrregular loans* 8% 7% 6% 64,7% 73,6% 73,4% 75% 57,% 6,% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 31,9% 27,9% 23,5% 11,1% 8,5% 7,8% IIQ 2 IVQ 2 IIQ 3 Sub standard Doubtful Lost 25% % 28,% 33,% 1,% 1,% IQ 3 IIQ 3 Sub standard Doubtful Lost * corporate 19

21 PROVISIONS STRUCTURE COST OF PROVISIONS (PLN mil) 1H 2 1H 3 Corporate loans Retail loans Foreign branches General and other provisions TOTAL Cost of net provisions amounted PLN 2 mln. Biggest part of provisions represents provisions for corporate loans. 2

22 VALUATION OF SHARES USING EQUITY METHOD PLN mln 3 17,2 8,8 3,1 1,6-6,8-8,9-8,7-46,7-62, -7 CDM Pekao PPIM KIR Other PTE NFI Jupiter * Pekao Leasing Other Total */ Bank s share in subsidiaries results together with depreciation the goodwill and negative goodwill Net loss of Pekao Leasing in 1H 23 resulted from creation of the provisions and by revaluation of the provisions for leasing agreements denominated in EURO and CHF. The loss of Jupiter NFI (37.44% Bank s share in net loss of the subsidiary). Good results of CDM and PPIM. 21

23 GROSS AND NET INCOME PLN mln 1 2 Influence of provisions costs H 22 1H 23 Net income and ROE PLN mln 52 Net income ROE 14,4% 15% Net income for 1H 23 amounted PLN 56 mln and return on equity 14.4% ,4% H 22 1H 23 8% 1% 22

24 COMPARISON OF BANK S AND GROUP S RESULTS BANK GROUP NIM % 4, 4,1 Cost/Income % 53, 54,7 ROE % 14,4 14,4 NPL % 21,8 23,1 Net income PLN mln Equity PLN mln Bank s and Group s net income and equity are almost the same. Insignificant differences in some ratios value. 23

25 Appendix 24

26 ASSETS QUALITY Migration of corporate loans in 1H SUB STANDARD 22 From Pay off From To From To From To From To 6' 23 Standard Watch Sub standard Doubtful Lost DOUBTFUL 22 From Pay off From To From To From To From To 6' 23 Standard Watch Sub standard Doubtful Lost LOST 22 From Pay off From To From To From To From To 6' 23 Standard Watch Sub standard Doubtful Lost 25

27 RESULTS OF THE BANK AND GROUP PLN mlnł 22 1H ,7-6, Bank's results (excl. subsidiaries) Full method Equity value method Adjustments on consolidation Group results Results of the Bank lower with regard to the loss sustained by Pekao Leasing. PLN mlnł 1H ,9-2,6, Bank's results (excl. subsidiaries) Full method Equity value method Adjustments on consolidation Group results 26