STRATEGIC UPDATE Delivering sustainable value

Transcription

1 STRATEGIC UPDATE Delivering sustainable value Neal Froneman Chief Executive Officer 28 July 2016

2 Disclaimer The information in this presentation may include forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and projections about future events. These statements may include, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including words such as target, expect, may, anticipate, estimate, will, and other words and terms of similar meaning or the negative thereof. These forward-looking statements, as well as those included in any other material discussed at the meeting, are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things, the development of Sibanye s business, general economic conditions and actions of regulators. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events in the forward-looking statements may not occur. No representation or warranty is made that any forward-looking statement will come to pass and no reliance should be placed on any forward-looking statement. No one undertakes to publicly update or revise any such forward-looking statement. 2

3 Senior management Charl Keyter CFO Hartley Dikgale EVP Corporate Affairs Themba Nkosi EVP Human Capital Sibanye Executive committee John Wallington EVP Energy Gold and Uranium Division Executive William Osae SVP Technical Services Pieter Henning SVP Finance Robert van Niekerk EVP Organisational Effectiveness Adam Mutshinya SVP Human Capital Wayne Robinson Divisional CEO Nash Lutchman SVP Protection Services Neal Froneman CEO Thabisile Phumo SVP Communications Dawie Mostert EVP Commercial Services CEO Office James Wellsted SVP Investor Relations George Ashworth Technical Assistant Richard Stewart EVP Business Development Jean Nel Divisional CEO TBA SVP Safety, Health & Environment Justin Froneman SVP Finance Platinum Division Executive Shadwick Bessit SVP Mining Bheki Khumalo SVP Human Capital Peter Turner SVP Technical Services Experienced and focused management 3

4 Our vision SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION FOR ALL OUR STAKEHOLDERS Through mining our multi-commodity resources predominantly in South Africa Underpinned by clear values 4

5 Location of Sibanye Operations ZIMBABWE Mimosa Platinum Mile Kroondal JOHANNESBURG South Rand operations West Wits operations Free State operations Key Bushveld Complex Great Dyke Witwatersrand Basin Platinum operations Gold operations SOUTH AFRICA A sizable and consolidated regional presence 5

6 Major global gold producers 2015 Reserves (Moz) 2015 Production (Moz) Barrick 92.0 Barrick 6.1 Newcrest 75.0 Newmont 5.0 Newmont 74.0 AngloGold 4.0 AngloGold 52.0 Gold Corp 3.5 Gold Fields 46.0 Kinross 2.6 Harmony 43.0 Newcrest 2.4 Gold Corp 41.0 Gold Fields 2.1 Kinross 34.0 Agnico-Eagle 1.7 Sibanye 31.0 Sibanye 1.5 Agnico-Eagle 19.0 Yamana 1.3 Source: Bloomberg A top ten gold producer 6

7 Global PGM producer rankings 4E Reserves 1,2 (Moz) 2015A 4E Production 1,4 (Moz) AMPLATS- ex Rustenburg Mines³ AMPLATS- ex Rustenburg Mines 3.6 Norilsk Nickel Norilsk Nickel 3.3 Implats 46.3 Implats 2.2 Lonmin 36.6 Lonmin 1.2 Sibanye (Rustenburg + Aquarius 5 ) 34.4 Sibanye (Rustenburg + Aquarius) 1.1 (of which 0.7Moz is platinum) Northam 19.2 Northam 0.4 RBPlats 10.8 RBPlats 0.3 Source: Companies disclosures, Broker reports Notes: 1. Platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold (together referred to as 3E+Au or 4E). Sibanye related data includes Rustenburg Operations and Aquarius 2. Reserves and resources are latest reported by the companies and are on an attributable basis; resources include reserves 3. Prior to conclusion of the latest PSA agreement with Aquarius 4. Based on broker consensus 5. Aquarius reserves and resources include 50% of the Kroondal PSA extension; Total Resources also include managed resources from projects and Blue Ridge A leading PGM producer 7

8 Corporate overview Shares in issue Shares in ADR form Market cap Listings R52 billion (US$3.5 billion) JSE Limited share code: SGL New York Stock Exchange ADR programme share code: SBGL Major Sibanye Gold shareholders * Gold One Limited 20.07% Public Investment Corporation 8.65% Debt* R2.0 billion (US$123 million) of R4.5 billion term and revolving facility Van Eck Associates Corporation 5.57% * At 31 December 2015, excludes Burnstone debt Shareholder geographic distribution* * Source: J.P.Morgan Cazenove, May 2016 Contact details 8% 2% 1% 9% 20% China South Africa USA Libanon Business Park 1 Hospital Road (off Cedar Avenue) Libanon, Westonaria, 1779 South Africa United Kingdom Germany Neal Froneman CEO Tel: neal.froneman@sibanyegold.co.za 34% 26% Switzerland Others James Wellsted Investor Relations Tel: james.wellsted@sibanyegold.co.za * Source: J.P.Morgan Cazenove, May

9 What differentiates Sibanye Significant free cash generation underpins dividend commitment Delivery of superior, sustainable returns to stakeholders Primary South Africa focussed strategic advantages A track record of environmentally responsible, sustainable, operational delivery Recognise importance of all stakeholders in delivery of sustainable success Uniquely positioned in industry 9

10 Leading the way to a modern mining industry A modern mining industry will optimally extract and beneficiate the country s natural resources, causing no harm to people or the planet. It benefits both the local community as well as the national economy. It procures locally, it is a preferred employer of well skilled people and creates appropriate risk-adjusted returns for investors. Regulations, taxation and incentives are consistent, transparent and recognise mining as a long- term driver of economic growth. Source: Joburg Indaba October 2015 The recipe for realising our vision 10

11 A track record of delivery

12 What we inherited on unbundling A strong safety culture with a good safety record Large, high-grade resources but relatively small reserves Well-maintained assets A declining production profile Unacceptably high costs Sub-optimal operational effectiveness: inefficient organisational structures a service function too large for sustainable operational requirements Opportunity to extend the operating life and enhance cash flow by: reducing costs increasing operational efficiency and productivity The 'Good, the Bad and the Ugly' 12

13 Safety trends Fatal injury frequency rate* FIFR peer comparison FIFR US Mining Industry Sibanye Peer 1 Peer2 Lost day injury frequency rate* LDIFR peer comparison LDIFR Australian Benchmark Sibanye Peer 1 Peer2 * Rates expressed per million man hours worked Safety standards comparable with international benchmarks 13

14 Sibanye operating model Reduce costs and paylimits Premium rating Robust dividends Increase flexibility SIBANYE Strong cash flows Increase margins Optimise all capital including balance sheet Delivery of basic mining and financial fundamentals 14

15 Reserves (Moz) Annual gold production (koz) Operational track record US$/oz F 500 Gold Fields Sibanye Historical Forecast Production (koz) Gold Price ($/oz) AISC Gold Fields Sibanye Turnaround effected and maintained 15

16 US$/oz Global gold producer AISC ranking AISC (guided) Source: Qinisele Resources; Company guidance (Sibanye assuming R15/US$ YTD) Favourably positioned on the cost curve 16

17 2016 operating cost breakdown Operating costs predominantly in ZAR (non ZAR costs less than 2%) Annual wage increase agreed until July 2018 Decline in oil and other commodity prices reducing inflationary pressure on consumable costs 22% 5% 22% Electricity remains the only uncertain cost input 51% Electricity Labour Stores Other Electricity pricing the only major cost uncertainty in the medium term 17

18 Divisional structure Gold and Uranium Division Platinum Division Energy Division Structured to support and deliver on strategy 18

19 Relative gold price performance (%) Gold price in rand and dollars Gold US$/oz Gold R/kg Source: inet: 24 July 2016 Rand gold price significantly higher 19

20 US$/oz R/kg Revenue and costs leveraged to exchange rate Sibanye costs and revenue (R/kg) Margin expansion Total cash cost - R/kg Sustaining capital - R/kg Gold price - R/kg Sibanye costs and revenue (US$/oz) * 2016 exchange rate of R15.00:US$ Total cash cost - US$/oz Sustaining capital - US$/oz Gold price - US$/oz Expanding margins 20

21 kg LoM reserve production profiles Pre-feasibilities studies undertaken De Bron Beisa Pending capital approval WRTRP Projects in development Burnstone Below infrastructure projects Kloof Driefontein Surface reserves in LoM ,000kg (1Moz) Kloof Driefontein Cooke Beatrix Underground reserves in LoM Gold Fields plan Kloof Driefontein Cooke Beatrix 0 Note: Project profile is based on pre-feasibility and feasibility studies as at December 2015 Based on Reserves declared as at 31 December 2015 Assumptions: Gold price: R430,000/kg, Uranium R1,455/lb (real 2015 terms) Extending the operating life 21

22 Total costs (R/kg) Forecast cost profile (2016 terms)* Total capital costs (ZAR/ kg) Total operating cash costs (ZAR/ kg) Spot Gold Price (21/07/2016) - Note: Real model based on 31 Dec 2015 Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources and assumes only Burnstone is implemented Includes direct operational/project costs, excludes corporate, financing and other costs 22

23 Estimated free cash flow after capex and taxes (ZAR'000) Gold Division forecast cash flow profile 2016* Operations CF from gold including Burnstone operations incl. Burnstone Operations CF from gold including Burnstone operations and incl. WRTRP Burnstone and WRTRP 2015 Gross dividend Dividend target *Based on 31 Dec 2015 Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources. Gold and uranium cash flow only Includes direct operational/projects, BEE and corporate costs, excludes financing and other costs Gold price: R600,000/kg and uranium price: R1,455/kg Value-accretive project pipeline financeable without risking dividend 23

24 Delivering value to all stakeholders

25 Superior value for all stakeholders Shareholders: superior return on investment dividends and capital appreciation Employees: good health and prosperity, sustainable employment Communities: service delivery, housing, infrastructure, jobs and peace Unions and associations: growing and satisfied membership Suppliers and customers: ability to transact on a transparent, sustainable and fair basis Government: transformation, economic growth, poverty alleviation and political control Management: satisfied stakeholders and strategic success Building a track record of delivery for all stakeholders 25

26 Committed to delivery of value to all stakeholders Delivery of superior value to shareholders, as providers of capital, of primary importance Financial performance underpinned by, and reliant on consistent and sustainable operational performance Operational sustainability requires alignment with and support from all stakeholders Awareness of broader social, economic and environmental impact therefore critical Sibanye committed to a holistic and inclusive value-creation strategy Values and vision driven 26

27 Environmental value delivery WRTRP: reprocessing of West Wits surface tailings facilities Sibanye AMANZI: proactive and innovative water management strategy Photovoltaic project: environmentally friendly, renewable energy generation Gas flaring for power at Beatrix and powered underground locos and bus fleet 27

28 Superior value for our shareholders Cumulative dividend of R2.8 billion (US$229 million) delivered to shareholders since listing in 2013 Industry-leading dividend yield maintained despite appreciation in share price * Based on average share price during the year An industry-leading dividend payer 28

29 Total shareholder return* Share price appreciation since listing: R50.31/share Dividends paid since listing: R3.24/share Total return* = R53.55/share 448% return on investment * From listing on 11 February 2013 until 21 July % CAGR 29

30 Delivering value to communities Public Private Partnerships to facilitate high impact regional projects in local and labour sending areas Job creation and skills development key drivers >640 jobs created > beneficiaries in bursaries, learnerships, AET and portable skills Broad-based empowerment of local communities agricultural hub concept launched on the West Rand Ensuring community development in areas we operate 30

31 Delivering value for employees Care for imali improving personal financial management benefitted over 22,000 employees and community members garnishee orders decreased by 49% Affordable home ownership benefited over 300 families since 2015 Progress towards a Social and Economic Compact sharing of profits with employees and protecting the company during economic downturns 31

32 Delivering value for the company Increased reserves and extended operating life A leading position on the global cost curve Sustainable employment opportunities enhanced by local investment Strong cash flows with prudent debt supporting job sustainability through capital investment in projects 32

33 Creating value in the mining industry Championing and driving the principles which define a modern mining industry Creating a safer and more productive work environment through the advancement of technology and R&D Active participation in critical stakeholder forums such as the Phakisa process Driving change in the industry through active leadership of industry bodies such as the Chamber of Mines Adopting a firm but fair approach to stakeholder engagement redefining the role of the mining industry 33

34 Value creation strategy

35 Value creation strategy Continue to drive operational excellence on existing asset base a proven operating model robust cash flow strong balance sheet Create additional value by leveraging off its core competencies in other appropriate commodities Mining companies globally are divesting assets in order to reduce debt and leverage Opportunities to conclude favourably priced transactions at a low point in the commodity price cycle Well-positioned to realise further value 35

36 Platinum a logical first step Many operational similarities with gold mining Long-term PGM supply and demand fundamentals remain robust Low PGM prices and escalating costs (labour, utilities) have put balance sheets under strain Opportunity to leverage Sibanye s successful operating model and hard rock, tabular, labour intensive mining competency to realise further value Innovative approach to structuring transactions and projects 36

37 Attractive entry price Source: HSBC research Bubble size: resource size Sibanye platinum transactions Other platinum transactions Low acquisition costs result in significant management flexibility 37

38 An industry in need of change Poor commercial discipline requires closure of loss-making and break-even production to preserves resource value Capital allocation and co-operation limited More rigid stakeholder cost control required A robust and sustainable industry will result from consolidation Source: SA Chamber of Mines New approach to labour, communities and regulators required 38

39 South African gold industry consolidation Mature industry driven to consolidation by increasing costs and operational complexity Significant decline in production and employment, with increasing costs 69 listed gold companies in 1990, six in 2016 Source: SA Chamber of Mines Sibanye executives were intimately involved in the gold sector consolidation 39

40 Strategically well positioned Western Limb PGM Operations Northam 2. Anglo America Platinum 2 3. Sedibelo Platinum 4. Platinum Group Metals 5. Wesizwe Platinum Royal Bafokeng Platinum 7. Impala Platinum 8. Lonmin 9. Eastern Platinum 10. Glencore Xstrata 4 5 Sibanye Platinum (Anglo Platinum's Rustenburg assets) Sibanye Platinum (formerly Aquarius) Western Bushveld Joint Venture Sable Project Pandora Joint Venture Opportunity to leverage Sibanye s successful operating model 40

41 Consolidation benefits Planning and ore body extraction optimised by breaking down farm boundaries Improved capacity utilisation and rationalisation of infrastructure Remove duplicated/unnecessary overhead structures and costs Rationalise replicated support services Optimise capital allocation Flexibility to close loss making production Enhance financial capacity access to capital markets improved cost of capital reduced Consolidation is logical and necessary 41

42 Estimated free cash flow after capex and taxes (ZAR'000) Group forecast cash flow profile 2016* CF Operations from gold including operations Burnstone incl. Burnstone CF Operations from gold including operations Burnstone and incl. WRTRP Burnstone and WRTRP 2015 dividend Gross Dividend target CF Operations from gold including operations Burnstone and incl. WRTRP Burnstone, and PGMs WRTRP and PGM operations *Based on 31 Dec 2015 Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources. Gold and PGM cash flow Includes direct operational/projects costs, BEE and corporate costs, excludes financing and other costs Gold price: R600,000/kg, Platinum price: ZAR15,000/ 4E oz long-term (2020) and uranium price: R1,455/kg Platinum assets contribute strongly to cash flow* 42

43 Relative valuation 43

44 % Superior value for our shareholders % % 28% 21% -4% -8% -20% Sibanye AngloGold Gold Fields Harmony FTSE/JSE ALSI Gold (US$/oz) Gold (R/kg) Source: Bloomberg/iNet 24 July 2016 Convincing share price appreciation 44

45 US$/oz x x US$/oz Peer group benchmarking F2016 PE EV/EBITDA (2016) 500 EV/Reserve oz 2.5 P/NPV Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts 8 July 2016, brokers reports Potential to rerate further 45

46 x Comparative SA gold and PGM company ratings 30 SA gold and platinum company EV/EBITDA Platinum 25 Gold Gold Fields Sibanye AngloGold Harmony Lonmin Impala Anglo Platinum Royal Bafokeng Northam Source: Bloomberg 24 July 2016 SA gold shares trade at a significant discount to their platinum peers 46

47 Strategic outlook and conclusion 47

48 Strategic principles Dividend underpins investment case and will not be compromised Investment discipline regarding M&A and capital allocation to ensure industry leading dividend sustainability Industry leading dividend underpins long-term returns to investors and will drive rerating Sustainability only possible if value is created for all stakeholders Focus on sustainable value over longer term rather than reacting to short-term exogenous issues A clear and focused strategy 48

49 Sibanye's key strategic thrusts 2016 Enabling consistent, safe operational delivery Continuous business improvement Integration of platinum acquisitions Retain balance sheet strength and flexibility Respectful relationships with stakeholders and stakeholder communications Value-accretive growth to increase and sustain shareholder returns Focus on environmentally beneficial business practices Strategic and leadership role in repositioning the South African mining industry 49

50 Conclusion Sibanye is committed to creating superior value for ALL stakeholders Gold division is generating substantial cash flows Platinum acquisitions will realise significant value in the medium term Robust financial position and strong balance sheet at an opportune point in the commodity cycle Industry-leading dividend yield investment thesis remains the cornerstone building block A secure and prosperous future 50

51 Questions