==lia=m^oh=i^kb=`^mfq^i H =

Transcription

1 liam^ohi^kb`^mfq^i H TNG Limited 10 TNG hooks strategic partner 3 August 2011 Recommendation: BUY Sector: Mining Target Price: 27 Exchange & Ticker: ASX: TNG Shares in issue: 285m Fully diluted shares: 306m Market cap: A$ 28m MINING ANALYST: CORPORATE BROKING: Phil Swinfen +44(0) ps@oldplc.com Luca Tenuta +44(0) lt@oldplc.com ASX-listed TNG Limited (ASX: TNG) announced that it has entered into a binding Letter Of Intent (LOI) to form a strategic partnership with Jiangsu Eastern China Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Holding Company Ltd ( ECE ), a leading Chinese State-owned enterprise. The proposed transaction would result in a capital raise of A$13.4m that would leave ECE as a strategic partner with a 30% interest in TNG. The proposed deal. ECE will subscribe for 122m shares at 11 per share to raise A$13.4m, a 19% premium to the TNG s closing price before the deal was announced. ECE will be offered two non-executive board positions on the TNG Board. ECE will also provide a A$2m loan to TNG for working capital purposes prior to the end of August to underpin the on-going PFS and metallurgical test work. Rationale. The deal allows TNG to comfortably complete the on-going pre-feasibility study and metallurgical test work for it s for its flagship 100%-owned Mount Peake Iron-Vanadium Project in the Northern Territory. It also provides TNG with the corporate and strategic backing of a major Chinese group at a critical time in the development of Mount Peake. ECE has significant financial and technical capability. Positive. We believe the deal represents a significant step forward for TNG and the development of Mount Peake. Although ECE will appoint two members to the board, critically TNG retains control with ECE taking a 30% stake. We view the potential dilution as being balanced by the cash injection allowing TNG to forge ahead with the PFS and commercialization of the metallurgical test work. The presence of a new cornerstone investor significantly de-risks the project and expands the options for TNG to fund Mount Peake. ECE are a becoming a major player in the global resource industry and have made a series of significant investments in western-based mining-exploration companies. Exploration JV. ECE will also enter into a separate JV to fund exploration at TNG s McArthur copper project. We maintain our short-term target price of A$0.27 per share (fully diluted) and a BUY recommendation. We will review our valuation on completion of the deal. Successful execution further de-risks TNG and we remain focused on the completion of the PFS in October. With a potential new strategic partner on board we reiterate our view that the stock represents good value in the current trading range. A marketing communication from OPLC. TNG Limited is a corporate client of OPLC. liam^ohi^kb`^mfq^imi`qv_bohbibvpnr^obiilkalktngr^wqwhqqemfomtqvpunuucwhqqemfomtqvpprtstktttkliami`k`lj

2 tttkliami`k`lj New strategic partner and cornerstone investor TNG Limited (ASX: TNG) has announced that it has entered into a binding Letter Of Intent (LOI) to form a strategic partnership with Jiangsu Eastern China Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Holding Company Ltd ( ECE ), a leading Chinese State-owned enterprise. The proposed deal The LOI includes a A$13.4m injection of funds into TNG through an equity placement which would see ECE emerge with a 30% stake in TNG. ECE will subscribe for 122m shares at 11 per share to raise A$13.4m, a 19% premium to the TNG s closing price before the deal was announced. ECE will be offered two non-executive board positions on the TNG Board; ECE will provide a A$2m loan to TNG for working capital purposes prior to the end of August to underpin the on-going PFS and metallurgical test work. ECE will enter into separate JV agreement to fund exploration on TNG s McArthur copper project. The McArthur licences cover 650km 2 in the Northern Territory. The rationale The transaction first and foremost allows TNG to comfortably complete the on-going pre-feasibility study and metallurgical test work for it s for its flagship 100%-owned Mount Peake Iron-Vanadium Project in the Northern Territory. In addition to the cash injection, the deal provides TNG with the corporate and strategic backing of a major Chinese group at a critical time in the development of Mount Peake. ECE is a large entity and capable of providing both technical and financial assistance to help TNG develop the project. ECE has recently opened up an office in Darwin which suggests to us that they intend to be hands on partners and not just remote investors. Requirements The transaction is subject to approvals which TNG hopes to have in place by early Q4 2011: 1. Due Diligence and TNG shareholder approval an independent report will be prepared 2. Australian Foreign Investment Review Board ( FIRB ) approval 3. Approval by the Jiangsu Provincial People s Government A landmark deal, in our view We believe the transaction is positive and represents a significant step forward for TNG and the development of Mount Peake. Although ECE will appoint two members to the board, critically TNG retains control with ECE taking a 30% stake. Approval by TNG shareholders would negate the ASX s 20% rule on takeovers. The deal premium of 19% minimizes dilution and in any case potential dilution is balanced out by the new funds to be applied to the PFS. The important aspect is that TNG now has the funds to fully commercialise the metallurgical test work into the the TIVAN process. The presence of a new cornerstone investor significantly de-risks the project and expands the options for TNG to fund Mount Peake. It is likely that Mount Peake s $370m capex would be project financed through an Asian-based entity or bank. ECE s potential 30% stake will be acquired by paying around 50% of TNG s market cap. Given TNG s current share price we view the transaction as a good deal for ECE. We would have preferred a cornerstone investment to come in when TNG s price is much higher. As a reminder, our un-risked NAV (10%) for Mount Peake is A$357m (post-tax, pre-financing) which we risk at 80% in generating our A$0.27 target price. However, needs must and TNG would likely have needed a capital raise in any case, and we view it as positive that TNG gains an active strategic partner instead of a detached investor and keeps making progress with project development. tttkliami`k`lj m^dbo

3 tttkliami`k`lj About ECE, TNG s potential strategic partner Jiangsu Eastern China Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Holding Company Ltd ( ECE ) is a leading Chinese State-owned enterprise and part of the East China Mineral Exploration & Development Bureau. The Bureau was established in 1955 and has over 4,000 employees worldwide. ECE has wide ranging interests including several mines and refining operations including the Youxi Jindong lead-zinc mine and refining operations, Fujian Taiyangshan gold mine, Yunan Boka gold mine, Anhui Matou copper-molybdenum mine and other interests in Brazil and Indonesia. ECE has a track record of strategic investments in resources ECE is becoming a major player in the global resource sector and the proposed strategic investment in TNG is not the company s first foray into the western resource sector. Below we outline other strategic investments that ECE has made in the global mining sector: Arafura Resources Ltd (ASX: ARU). In February 2009, ECE entered into a strategic alliance with Arafura to acquire up to 25% of the company to inject momentum into the ARU s Nolans rare-earth phosphate deposit. This investment is particularly interesting, see below. Itaminas Comercio de Minerios Brazil. It was reported in March 2010 that ECE agreed to pay $1.2bn for the Brazilian iron ore miner, a producer of 3Mtpa of iron ore. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Weatherly International plc (AIM: WTI.L). ECE proposed a 16m investment in Weatherly to gain a 50.1% interest in the Namibian-based mining company. However, the ECE investment was terminated as Weatherly disposed of its smelter business and no longer required the funds. However as of July 2011, ECE and Weatherly plan to develop the Berg Aukas Pb-Zn- Ag-V mine in Namibia with ECE taking a majority shareholding. Globe Metals & Mining Ltd (ASX: GBE). In April 2010 ECE acquired a 51% stake in GBE for A$47m. GBE is an African focused REE and niobium development company. ECE investment raises possibility of interesting synergies in the Northern Territory In our view, the fact that ECE has previously made an investment in Arafura Resources Ltd ( ARU ) is particularly interesting. Arafura s Nolans deposit is located only 60km south of Mount Peake. This suggests to us that there is potential for synergistic infrastructure development between the two deposits. Both Mount Peake and Nolans will require construction of a rail siding to access the main Adelaide to Darwin rail line. Although there is no formal agreement, it has been muted by TNG that there is potential for a shared rail siding. Clearly, having ECE as a major shareholder in both companies may help crystallise potential joint ventures for infrastructure. ECE investment track record in practice ECE s stake in Arafura has now been diluted down to 17.59% following a $90m placement that ECE declined to participate in (the ARU share price actually fell when ECE announced that it would allow its stake to be diluted). This demonstrates to us that ECE are prepared to be diluted and are not solely fixated on acquiring controlling stakes in companies. Later in this note we argue that investment by Chinese state-owned entities is becoming a reality and a necessity. This is evidenced by the ECE investment (A$24m) which ARU used to progress the feasibility for Nolans. ARU expects first production in 2013 and we view the ECE capital injection an important factor in this outcome. tttkliami`k`lj m^dbp

4 tttkliami`k`lj New World Order we argue that Chinese investment in resources is necessary Whether a fair assessment or not, major stake-building by Chinese state-owned enterprises is viewed by some investors with caution given the occasional opacity of some of these deals. The focus of this vitriol is usually the perceived nefarious intensions of the Chinese surrounding controlling stakes, noncompetitive pricing and securing strategic resources. Chinese investment in mining is a reality We would counter that the reality is that the resource sector needs this kind of investment and Chinese support is becoming critical for many operations worldwide. A case in point is the Chinese funding of infrastructure in Africa, which is linking resources to make investment in the region viable. Bilateral trade between China and Africa is predicted to reach US$300 billion by 2015 according to a recent report by Standard Bank Group Limited. The new world reality is that China is the dominant player in the resource sector and is currently Australia s biggest trading partner fueled largely by Australian exports of coal and iron ore. China buys a quarter of Australia s exports and China has directly invested at least A$16 billion in over the last 5 years according to Australia s Treasury Department. As China moves to secure mineral resources to support its growth we would expect Chinese investment in global resources to continue. The export supply chain to China and Asia is becoming engrained in the industry and naturally China aims to consolidate and grow this position through large strategic investments aimed at securing the future supply of strategic metals and materials. Our take on this at Old Park Lane is that you can t have your cake and eat it. It should not be possible to enjoy the benefits of Chinese driven commodity demand while at the same time spurning greater Chinese investment in western companies. Clearly this is a case of biting the hand that feeds. Thus, we argue that large scale Chinese funding is a necessity, especially for projects with onerous capital cost requirements. However, the focus should be on investment that enhances shareholder value, creates jobs and long term sustainability. Headwinds dying down Investments in Australian companies by major Chinese state-owned firms have faced substantial headwinds in the past with Canberra rejecting takeover bids by these firms. In 2009 China Non- Ferrous Metal Mining Co was blocked from buying a controlling stake in Lynas Corp, a rare earth miner and China s Minmetals was blocked from bidding for Oz Mineral s Prominent Hill Cu-Au mine. However, Australia s Resource Minister, Martin Ferguson says that Chinese firms should be more successful in getting investments in Australia's mining sector approved because they now know how to navigate the process. Chinese companies are now having discussions with Canberra s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), who approve investments, at a much earlier stage. FIRB will also need to approve ECE s investment in TNG although we are optimistic that approval will be granted given that ECE would emerge with a non-controlling stake. Adam Cunneen from the Department of Resources in the Northern Territory was recently quoted as saying We need to make sure the Northern Territory is first and foremost in their minds [Chinese partners] so that they know they can come here, they'll be warmly welcomed and we will facilitate their investment towards good returns." th Annual Geoscience Exploration Seminar, March 2011, Alice Springs, NT, Australia. tttkliami`k`lj m^dbq

5 tttkliami`k`lj Company profile ASX-listed TNG Limited (ASX: TNG) is a rapidly growing exploration and development company focused on the Northern Territory of Australia. TNG has a multi-commodity portfolio of projects ranging from early stage exploration to pre-feasibility. The company s main focus is the Mount Peake project; a vanadium-titanium-iron deposit located 235km north of Alice Springs where TNG has outlined a JORC resource of 139 Mt. The PFS is due to be completed by October Recommendation We maintain our target price of A$0.27 per share (fully diluted) and a BUY recommendation. We believe that there is material upside if TNG is successful in developing the project according to current plans. We acknowledge that key news flow on metallurgical test-work or infrastructure may cause our target to be breached rapidly. We believe the value of TNG is predicated on the fortunes and development of the Mount Peake project, TNG s flagship asset. The competitive advantage of Mount Peake is highly dependent on the successful development of a new hydrometallurgical process (the TIVAN process). We believe that for investors with an appropriate risk appetite, and with the shares trading at the current low level, an early entry point prior to the completion of metallurgical test-work looks attractive. Timeline The key events over the next 6 months are: H Commence pilot plant metallurgical test-work Q3/Q Updated JORC resource October 2011 Complete Pre-feasibility Study Q Commence Definitive Feasibility Study Pilot plant test-work will commence in the latter half of 2011 using the core from the May/June 2011 round of diamond drilling to test the commercial potential of the TIVAN process. The PFS is planned for completion in October 2011 and is currently 90% complete. Reverse circulation drilling should be completed by the end of August. Assuming a positive outcome from the PFS, TNG would then initiate a Definitive Feasibility Study ( DFS ) commencing in early 2012 to investigate commercial development options for Mount Peake. Mount Peake project timeline according to TNG Calendar year Resource drilling Pilot plant testwork Pre-feasibility Value improvement Feasibility Engineering & design Procurement Project financing Construction Handover Production J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: TNG, Old Park Lane Capital Estimate tttkliami`k`lj m^dbr

6 liam^ohi^kb`^mfq^i H DISCLOSURES AND RISK WARNING The recommendation system used for this research is as follows. We expect the indicated target price relative to the FT All Share Index to be achieved with 12 months on the date of this publication. A Hold indicates expected performance relative to this index of +/-10%, a Buy indicates expected outperformance of >10% and a Sell indicates underperformance of >10%. This Marketing Communication is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute a personal recommendation and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. This publication is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell any securities of any of the companies referred to herein and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Recommendations may not be suitable for all recipients of this publication and if you have any doubt you should seek advice from a financial adviser. Except for any liability owed under FSMA 200 or the regulatory system, Old Park Lane Capital plc (OPLC) accepts no liability for any losses which may be incurred by the client acting on such recommendation. Companies mentioned in this research/document may be corporate finance clients of OPLC. The analyst(s) responsible for this document may receive compensation based either directly or indirectly on profits derived from fund management activities. OPLC its directors and employees may have a position or holding in any of the above investments or in a related investment, therefore OPLC is not holding out this research as being impartial or objective as defined by the FSA Conduct of Business Rule , as set out in our conflicts of interest policy and procedures. This document has been prepared, approved and issued by OPLC on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. All reasonable care has been taken to ensure the facts stated and opinions given are fair and not knowingly misleading in whole or part. Prices and factual details are deemed to be correct at the time of publication. However, OPLC offers no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of any such information or data. The views expressed are as at the date stated and are subject to change at any time There is an extra risk of losing money when shares are bought in some smaller companies, including those quoted on AIM, sometimes known as penny shares. There can be a big difference between the buying price and the selling price of these shares. If they have to be sold immediately, you may get back much less than you paid for them. The price may change quickly and it may go down as well as up. Past performance of investments referred to above is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of the investment may go down as well as up. Some investments are not readily realisable and investors may have difficulty in selling or realising the investment or obtaining reliable information on the value or risks associated with the investment. This publication may not be reproduced or copies circulated without authority. Old Park Lane Capital plc is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA no ). Registered address: 49 Berkeley Square, Mayfair, London, W1J 5AZ. liam^ohi^kb`^mfq^imi`qv_bohbibvpnr^obiilkalktngr^wqwhqqemfomtqvpunuucwhqqemfomtqvpprtstktttkliami`k`lj