EQUITY RESEARCH Telecom, Media, Tech COMPANY UPDATE
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1 Feb Mar Apr LIVEXLIVE M EDIA OR D (.9130,.9000,.0000,.2000, ) May Relative Strength Index ( 0.003) Jun Jul Aug x Member FINRA/SIPC Toll Free: EQUITY RESEARCH Telecom, Media, Tech COMPANY UPDATE LiveXLive Media, Inc. (Nasdaq/LIVX) BUY LiveXLive is an early stage live music streaming and social media platform. August 1, 201 Barry M. Sine Senior Research Analyst bsine@dawsonjames.com LiveX Reports Strong F1Q and Outlines Strategic Plan Yesterday LiveXLive held its first earnings call as a public company and provided a strategic update and long-term roadmap. Given the fact that the company s business plan is still in its early stages, quarterly results were not the dominant theme with revenue coming in at $. mm, in line with our $. mm estimate. Management also provided guidance with the low end of its $3 to $ mm revenue guidance number for the full year above our $3. mm estimate The EBITDA guidance for a loss of $10 to $12 mm is less than our more conservative negative $1 mm. Among the highlights were the company announced its six-point strategic plan, two of which stand out, in our opinion. First, the company plans to more closely integrate its LiveXLive branded festival streaming platform with its recently acquired Slacker Radio platform and get to 10 mm paying subscribers by the end of If ARPU is near the current Slacker rate of roughly $ per month, just subscription revenue alone would be around $00 mm annually. The second notable target is getting to the point where it has content 2//3. We reiterate our Buy rating and $ target. The company made solid progress both financially and strategically in the quarter. The key risks toward hitting the above targets, and thus our price target are threefold: o First, it must continue to build its calendar of festivals. We think its success to date will breed more success. o Second, it must keep attracting more viewers. It has already attracted 30 mm towards its target for the year of 100 mm. o Third, and most critical, it must generate advertising and sponsorship revenue for what is still a new concept. Current Price $.2 Price Target $.00 Estimates F201A F2019E F2020E Revenue($000s) $,19 $3,0 $1,00 1Q June 2,90 A 2,10 2Q September 32,100 3,20 3Q December 0,20 3,20 Q March, 10,00,200 EPS ($0.) ($0.) $0.0 1Q March (0.0) (0.21) (0.1) 2Q June (0.12) (0.29) (0.03) 3Q September (0.10) (0.1) 0.0 Q December (0.29) (0.11) 0.19 P/E (x) N/A N/A 93.X EBITDA ($12,) ($1,1) $2,00 EV/EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 9.X Stock Data 2-Week Range $3.3 - $90.00 Shares Outstanding (mil.) 1. Market Capitalization (mil.) $23. Enterprise Value (mil.) $23.9 Debt to Capital 1.% Book Value/Share $0. Price/Book.2 X Average Trading Volume (3-month) Mill 0.1 Insider Ownership.% Institutional Ownership 1.3% Short interest 2.% Price target and ratings changes over the past 3 years: Initiation - June, Buy - Price Target $.00 Company Update - August 1, Buy Price Target $.00 Please find Important Disclosures beginning on Page. Page 1 of
2 August 1, 201 F1Q Results on Track, But the Sizzle is in the Now Unfolding Strategic Plan LiveXLive Media held its first earnings call as a public company last night. While results and guidance were in line with our expectations, given the fact that the company is still early in its development, we ascribe little importance to them. Much more importantly, management gave an extensive overview of its strategy and long-term objectives, with the CFO unveiling the financial reporting framework. As we discussed in our initiation report in June, the company is early in the stages of a three-step process to build its revenue base: 1. Build a robust schedule of festivals 2. Build a user base with a target of up to 100 mm views this year 3. Monetize the festivals and visitors On the following page, we list the company s upcoming lineup of festivals. It remains on track to webcast 2 festivals this year, with an ultimate target of 100. The exit of former competitors such as RedBull and Verizon s Go90 means that LiveX has a good shot of adding to their portfolio, in our opinion. It also announced that 30 million people have watched the 10 festivals webcast so far this year, or 3 million per festivals with this number growing over time. So it is on track to near its 100 million target. The last and most important is still a work in progress, monetizing the above. The company has now started to assemble a sales leadership team and one of its partner festival promoters, Insomnia, will also now use its salesforce. The millennial viewers that LiveX attracts are the most attractive and elusive in the advertising jungle. Attractive since they are forming lifelong purchase habits for products like deodorant and toothpaste and because they are about to embark on marriage and family formation, with big ticket purchases of SUVs and homes just ahead. Elusive because they don t patronize any of the traditional media sources advertisers once used, and so the LiveX platform is a unique opportunity to reach them. By the end of this year, management plans to integrate its Slacker Radio and LiveXLive festival platforms, with a target of 10 mm paying customers by the end of At their current monthly ARPU of around $ for Slacker, this would generate around $00 mm in revenue, plus a similarly large amount for advertising and sponsorship. With F1Q now in the books, LiveX is 90 days closer to achieving their dream, but much work remains. We reiterate our Buy rating. LiveXLive Media, Inc. Page 2 of
3 August 1, 201 Working Through Festival Schedule Festival Start Date End Date Location 201 / 201 Lineup Organizer FY 1Q 2019 EDC Las Vegas /1/201 /20/201 Las Vegas, Nevada Hangout Music Festival /1/201 /20/201 Gulf Shores, AL Rock On The Range /1/201 /20/201 Columbus, OH Armin Van Buuren, Diplo, Kaskade, Marshmello, Martin Garrix, Tiesto, Hardwell and Zeds Dead. The Killers, The Chainsmokers, Kendrick Lamar, Zedd, Odesza Tool, Avenged Sevenfold, Alice in Chains, A Perfect Circle AEG AEG Country 00 Music Festival /2/201 /2/201 Daytona, FL Toby Keith, Chris Stapleton, Dierks Bentley AEG Rock in Rio [Lisboa] /23/201 /30/201 Lisboa Total Festivals FY 2Q 2019 Bruno Mars, The Killers, Muse, The Chemical Brothers Live Nation Montreux Jazz Fest /29/201 /1/201 Lake Geneva, Switzerland See Website Mathieu Jaton Audiotistic Bay Area /1/201 /1/201 Mountain View, CA Paléo Festival de Nyon /1/201 /22/201 Nyon Global Dance Festival /20/201 /21/201 Denver, CO HARD Summer //201 //201 Fontana, CA Marshmello, Lil Uzi Vert, Nghtmre, Slander, Keys n Krates, Joyride Red Hot Chili Peppers, Arcade Fire, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (201) Tiesto, Deadmau, Future, Adventure Club and Gucci Mane. Marshmello, Zeds Dead B2B Jauz, Yellow Mustard, Louis the Child, Flosstradaumus. AEG Sziget //201 /1/201 Budapest, Hungary Arctic Monkeys, Kendrick Lamar, Mumford & Sons Rock en Seine /2/201 /2/201 Paris, France The xx, PJ Harvey, Flume, Franz Ferdinand Breakaway Festival /2/201 /2/201 Columbus, OH Halsey, Odesza and Migos. Prime Social Bumbershoot /31/201 9/2/201 Seattle, WA Flume, Lorde, Odesza, Big Sean (201) AEG Country Night Lights Sept, 201 Athens, OH Total 10 Festivals Jake Owen, Brett Eldredge, Brothers Osborne, Frankie Ballard Prime Social FY 3Q 2019 Escape 10/2/201 10/2/201 San Bernardino, CA EDC Orlando 11/9/201 11/10/201 Orlando, FL Dreamstate SoCal 11/23/201 11/2/201 San Bernardino, CA Countdown 12/30/201 12/31/201 San Bernardino, CA Total Festivals Tiesto, DJ Snake, NGHTMRE, Marshmello, Afrojack, Alan Walker, Eric Prydz (201) Armin Van Buuren, Marshmello, Galantis, Dimitri Vegas & Like Mike, Seven Lions, Jauz, NGHTMRE (201) Armin Van Buuren, GAIA, Paul van Dyk, ATB, Paul Oakenfold, Andrew Rayel, MaRLo (201) Alison Wonderland, Borgore, Deadmau, Diplo, DJ Mustard, GTA, Galantis, Porter Robinson, What So Not (201) FY Q 2019 Decadence NYE 12/31/201 1/1/2019 Denver, CO Armin Van Buuren, Justice, Galantis (201) AEG EDC Mexico Feb, 2019 Mexico City, Mexico Above & Beyond, Zedd, Eric Prydz, deadmau, Tiesto, Dillon Francis (201) Beyond Wonderland SoCal Mar, 2019 San Bernardino, CA Diplo, Hardwell, Alison Wonderland, Yellow Claw, GTA, Markus Schulz, NGHTMRE (201) EDC Japan Mar, 2019 Tokyo, Japan Total Festivals Source: Company reports and Dawson James estimates Martin Garrix, Kaskade, Marshmello, Axwell ^ Ingrosso, Armin Van Buuren, Afrojack (201) LiveXLive Media, Inc. Page 3 of
4 August 1, 201 LiveXLive Media Income Forecast Dollars in thousands, except per share data E 2020E Fiscal years ended March 31 1Q 2Q 3Q Q YEAR 1QA 2Q 3Q Q YEAR 1Q 2Q 3Q Q YEAR June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March June Sept Dec March Slacker Radio,9,9,000,000,000,000 2,000,10,20,20,00 29,0 YoY grow th 3.0% 312.1% 2% % % 10%.% Seq grow th LiveXLive ,100 1,20 3,00,0 20,000 30,000 30,000 3,00 11,00 # of events Revenue per event $13 $1 $0 $11 $100 $20 $00 $22 $1,000 $1,00 $2,000 $2,00 $1,9 YoY grow th Seq grow th.% 13.% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Revenue ,,19,90,100,20 10,00 3,0 2,10 3,20 3,20,200 1,00 YoY grow th 2.% 20.% 1.9% 30.1% 2.% 30.2% 33.% 32.% 32.% Seq grow th 1.9% 10.% 101.9% 12.% 1.0% 13.% 100.% 120.% Cost of Sales 9 2 -,3,9,3 13,200,00,000 33,13 20,000 20,000 1,000 1,000 0,000 Gross Margin () (,100) 2,0,00 1,0,10 1,20 22,20 30,200,00 As a percent of revenue 1.% 0.% 0.0%.0% -11.1% -3.0% 33.3% 3.%.1% 2.3%.% 9.9%.% 2.% Sales and Marketing 2,2 3, 2,1 9,000 1, ,22,1 3,2,,90,2 1, As a percent of revenue 2.1% 100.% 13.% 212.% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% Product Development 1,3 1,9 1,9 2,332,01,91,, 9,00 29,91 As a percent of revenue 2.3% 2.0% 23.0% 22.0% 23.2% 22.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.% General and Administrative,0,100,100,100 1,3,100,100,100,100 1,00 As a percent of revenue 3.% 0.% 9.% 3.% 9.% 1.1% 11.0% 11.0% 9.1% 23.% Amortization 2,23 2,23 2,23 2,23 9,92 2,23 2,23 2,23 2,23 9,92 Related Party As a percent of revenue 2.2% 1.% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Operating income (2,10) (3,3) (2,0) (9,0) (1,) (10,102) (1,39) (,1) (,2) (3,29) # (,11) (1,13) 3,923 9,213 3,32 Operating margin -19.% -0.% -2.1% -10.% -31.% -3.1% 10.% 20.% 2.3% Interest expense (3) (9) (901) (1,2) (3,922) (1) (00) (00) (00) (1,1) (00) (00) (00) 00 (00) Fair value of w arrants (193) (0) (0) Earnings from investment in affiliate Impairment loss Loss on sale of investment in affiliate - (22) (22) (3) (9) (901) (1,) (,13) () (00) (00) (00) (1,) (00) (00) (00) 00 (00) Pretax Income (2,1) (,302) (3,0) (10,3) (19,01) (10,) (1,939) (,01) (,92) (3,9) (9,011) (1,3) 3,23 9,13 2,2 Taxes Net income - continuing ops (2,1) (,302) (3,0) (10,9) (19,020) (10,) (1,939) (,01) (,92) (3,9) (9,011) (1,3) 3,23 9,13 2,2 Net income margin % -11.0% -11.1% -2.% -11.9% -1.% -.% -.9% % -33.2% -.2% 9.% 21.3% 1.% Diluted shares outstanding 3,2 3,01 3,3 3, 39,9 1,2 1,3 1, 1,03 1, 1,2 1,3 1, 1,03 1, Seq change , EPS diluted ($0.0) ($0.12) ($0.10) ($0.29) ($0.) ($0.21) ($0.29) ($0.1) ($0.11) ($0.) ($0.1) ($0.03) $0.0 $0.19 $0.0 EBITDA GAAP Operating Loss (10,102) (1,39) (,1) (,2) (3,29) (,11) (1,13) 3,923 9,213 3,32 Addback: Depreciation and amortization 2,21 2,21 2,21 2,21 10,0 2,21 2,21 2,21 2,21 10,0 Stock-based comp 2, 2, 2, 2, 11,392 2, 2, 2, 2, 11,392 Other non-recurring EBITDA (,) (9,10) (1,292) (1) (1,1) # (3,03),19 9,292 1,2 2,00 Source: Company reports and Dawson James estimates LiveXLive Media, Inc. Page of
5 August 1, 201 Important Disclosures: LIVEXLIVE MEDIA ORD (.9130,.9000,.0000,.2000, ) Relative Strength Index (0.003) x Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Source: Metastock Price target and ratings changes over the past 3 years: Initiation - June, Buy - Price Target $.00 Company Update - August 1, Buy Price Target $.00 Dawson James Securities, Inc. (the Firm ) is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ( FINRA ) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation ( SIPC ). The Firm does not make a market in the securities of the subject company (s). The Firm has NOT engaged in investment banking relationships with LIVX in the prior twelve months, as a manager or co-manager of a public offering and has NOT received compensation resulting from those relationships. The Firm may seek compensation for investment banking services in the future from the subject company(s). The Firm has received other compensation from the subject company(s) in the last 12 months for services unrelated to the managing or co-managing of a public offering. Neither the research analyst(s) whose name appears on this report nor any member of his (their) household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. The Firm and/or its directors and employees may own securities of the company(s) in this report and may increase or decrease holdings in the future. As of July 31, 201, the Firm as a whole did not beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company (s) of this report. The Firm, its officers, directors, analysts or employees may effect transactions in and have long or short positions in the securities (or options or warrants related to those securities) of the company(s) subject to this report. The Firm may effect transactions as principal or agent in those securities. Analysts receive no direct compensation in connection with the Firm's investment banking business. All Firm employees, including the analyst(s) responsible for preparing this report, may be eligible to receive non-product or service specific monetary bonus compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the Firm and its affiliates as well as a portion of the proceeds from a broad pool of investment vehicles consisting of components of the compensation generated by investment banking activities, including but not limited to shares of stock and/or warrants, which may or may not include the securities referenced in this report. Although the statements in this report have been obtained from and are based upon recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we cannot guarantee their accuracy. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. LiveXLive Media, Inc. Page of
6 August 1, 201 Valuation: Our $ valuation is based on a multiple of 12x FY 2020 estimated EBITDA which is consistent with comps Risk Factors: The key risks toward hitting the above targets, and thus our price target are threefold: First, it must continue to build its calendar of festivals. We think its success to date will breed more success. Second, it must keep attracting more viewers. It has already attracted 30 mm towards its target for the year of 100 mm. Third, and most critical, it must generate advertising and sponsorship revenue for what is still a new concept. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. Additional information is available upon request. Ratings Definitions: 1) Buy: the analyst believes the price of the stock will appreciate and produce a total return of at least 20% over the next 12-1 months; 2) Neutral: the analyst believes the price of the stock is fairly valued for the next 12-1 months; 3) Sell: the analyst believes the price of the stock will decline by at least 20% over the next 12-1 months and should be sold. The following chart reflects the range of current research report ratings for all companies followed by the analysts of the Firm. The chart also reflects the research report ratings relating to those companies for which the Firm has performed investment banking services in the last twelve months. Analyst Certification: The analyst(s) whose name appears on this research report certifies that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his (their) personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this research report; and 3) all Dawson James employees, including the analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report, may be eligible to receive non-product or service specific monetary bonus compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of Dawson James and its affiliates as well as a portion of the proceeds from a broad pool of investment vehicles consisting of components of the compensation generated by investment banking activities, including but not limited to shares of stock and/or warrants, which may or may not include the securities referenced in this report. LiveXLive Media, Inc. Page of
EQUITY RESEARCH Telecom, Media, Tech COMPANY UPDATE
9 27 31 A S D 10 2016 4 S N D 14 18 2017 26 2 2018 8 16 22 29 F 5 12 20 26 LIVEXLIVE ED IA O RD (5.81000, 5.974,5.67000,5.77000,+0.01000) Relative Strength Index (45.7825) 5 12 19 26 2 A 9 16 23 30 7 14
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