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1 Member FINRA & SIPC Required disclosures appear in the Appendix. 122 East 42 nd Street New York, NY (212) (212) AAON, Inc. (AAON-$27.84) Morning Meeting Note NEUTRAL Lower Earnings Estimates; Earnings Preview Target: $25 Joseph Mondillo (212) July 19, 2016 Market Cap (Mil) $1,490 Avg. Daily Trading Volume 157,000 Shares Out (Mil) Float Shares (Mil) Institutional Holdings / Analysts Covering 52% / 3 Dividend / Dividend Yield $0.22 / 0.8% Free Cash Flow Per Share (2017E) $ E 2017E OLD NEW OLD NEW Mar. $0.16 $0.15 $0.20A $0.23 $0.22 June Sep Dec EPS $0.83 $0.84 $0.96 $0.93 $1.11 $1.07 P/E 29.9x 26.0x EBITDA $83.3 $83.0 $93.4 $91.0 $105.9 $102.7 in millions EV / EBITDA 15.9x 14.1x Price to Book Value 4.4x Return on Equity (2017E) 24.6% Total Debt to Total Capital Nil 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Projection 20% 52-Week Range (NASDAQ) Net Cash Per Share (2017E) $1.08 Short Interest (Mil) / Russell / 1208 Action Date Px Rating PT PT 8/8/ PT 1/3/ Rating 4/24/ Buy 23 PT 4/24/ PT 5/5/ Rating 2/6/ Neutral 25 PT 8/6/ PT 10/19/ PT 12/17/ PT 2/25/ Note: 2014 excludes one-time items of $ , 2015E, 2016E and 2017E include stock-based compensation expense of $0.04, $0.05, $0.05 and $0.06, respectively. Sum of quarterly EPS may not equal full-year total due to rounding and/or change in share count. The Russell 2000 Index includes AAON. NC=Not covered by. Year E 2017E Rev.(Mil.) $280.0 $245.3 $244.6 $266.2 $303.1 $321.1 $356.3 $352.1 $379.4 $409.7 GAAP EPS $0.47 $0.49 $0.38 $0.25 $0.49 $0.68 $0.80 $0.84 $0.93 $1.07 Description: AAON, Inc. ( is a leading domestic manufacturer of standard and custom heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) units, including unitary rooftops, chillers, air-handling units, make-up air units, heat recovery units, condensing units, coils and boilers. Products target the nonresidential market, specifically planned replacement (55%) and new construction (45%). AAON generates almost all of its revenue from the U.S. Headquarters are in Tulsa, OK. Release Date Conference Call Time (Eastern) Contact Co. Guidance Consensus August 4 August 4 4:15 p.m. TBA N/A $0.25 Lower Estimates Following Peer s 2Q:16 Results; To Us, Soft Demand, Inflating Raw Material Costs And Record High Valuations Are Risks; Maintain NEUTRAL Rating, $25 Target Yesterday, peer Lennox International (NYSE: LII, NC) reported better-than-expected EPS, driven by its residential segment, but soft revenue was a result of its commercial segment (the direct comp to AAON). Lennox s commercial segment revenue dipped 0.3%, driven by a 1% decline in volume and partially offset by a 1% increase in pricing. LII s revenue outlook for 2H:16 was a bit more positive, but cost inflation will be a headwind. As a result, we reduce estimates on AAON for the second time in a month to EPS of $0.93 (from $0.96) in 2016 and $1.07 (from $1.11) in 2017, or below respective consensus estimates of $1.00 and $1.12. We maintain a NEUTRAL rating and $25 target, based on 23x our 2017 EPS estimate of $1.07, which equates to 12.6x our lower 2017 EBITDA estimate of $103 million (formerly $106 million) plus net cash. Previously, we valued AAON at 22x our estimated 2017 EPS of $1.11, or 12.3x our prior 2017 EBITDA estimate. Although the slight increase to our valuation multiple reflects comparable multiple expansion relative to peers and the broad market, we highlight this as a risk. Following Lennox International s soft 2Q:16 Yesterday, one of AAON s closest peers reported better-than-expected 2Q:16 EPS but weaker-than-expected revenue. LII s EPS reflected strong demand at its Residential segment (AAON has no exposure to the residential market) and lower commodity costs (mainly copper and aluminum), but the company s Nonresidential segment was weak, resulting in the disappointing revenue. The Nonresidential segment s 0.3% revenue decline reflected a 1% decline in volume, partially offset by a 1% increase in price. Lennox s management stated its K-12 Copyright 2016

2 AAON, INC. education business (AAON s largest end market at about 23% of total sales) slowed from 2Q:15, while its national accounts business, which incorporates customers like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT, NC), declined at a low single-digit percentage. While Lennox s 2H:16 outlook on nonresidential was a bit more positive citing backlog up mid-single digits (including national accounts, up in the low single digits), the company views rising steel prices (about 8% of cost of goods sold at AAON) as a 2H:16 headwind. Lennox expects to offset rising raw material costs with price increases, but alluded to the benefit of low input costs over the last year going away and causing lower incremental margins than experienced over the last year. we lower our EPS estimates for AAON ahead of its 2Q:16 report. On the softer-than-expected peer report, we temper our growth expectations and gross margin expansion estimates. We estimate EPS of $0.93 (instead of $0.96) in 2016 and $1.07 (down from $1.11) in 2017, which now compares to respective consensus estimates of $1.00 and $1.12. We also caution investors of the unknown near-term impact of the company s entrance to the water-source heat pump business. Although we think this is a good opportunity to expand its market share in the HVAC industry long term, we also see risk of lower-than-expected margin in 2H:16 due to the near-term cost absorption effect while trying to ramp up volume. Overall, we remain cautious ahead of AAON s 2Q:16 report. We now estimate 2Q:16 revenue grew 5% (rather than 7%) to $94.8 million and EPS expanded 18% to $0.24. Our estimates compare to consensus of $99.7 million and $0.25. Exhibit 1: AAON, Inc. 2Q:16 Preview 2Q:16 Estimate 2Q:15 Actual YoY Change Revenue (thou.) $94,789 $90, % Gross profit 29,858 27, % Profit margin 31.5% 30.0% Operating income 20,285 17, % Profit margin 21.4% 19.9% Adjusted net income $12,786 $11, % Profit margin 13.5% 12.3% Adjusted EPS $0.24 $ % Source: Sidoti & Co., and Company reports We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and $25 price target. AAON trade at 29x and 15.5x respective 2016 EPS and EBITDA estimates, or premiums to respective 10-year averages of 19x and 10.5x. Peer LII trades 21x forward EPS and 13.6x forward EBITDA, while the S&P 600 is at a respective 18.7x and 9x. In comparing peers, we encourage investors to look at EV/EBITDA multiples, due to the higher amount of non-cash amortization expenses related to goodwill that Lennox realizes. Our $25 target on AAON now implies a multiple of 23x our 2017 EPS estimate of $1.07 and equates to 12.6x our lower 2017 EBITDA estimate of $103 million, plus net cash of $38 million. Although Lennox is a much larger company than AAON with more market share and a strong management team, we think that AAON s specialization in larger-tonnage, higher-margin equipment justifies a premium multiple. Previously, we applied a 22x multiple to our prior 2017 EPS estimate of $1.11, or 12.3x our prior 2017 EBITDA estimate of $106 million. While the slight increase to our valuation multiple reflects comparable multiple expansion relative to peers and the broad market, we highlight this as a risk. Valuations for both AAON and LII are about 25%-30% higher than the five-year averages and 50% higher than the 10-year averages. Key Risks Construction does not improve Steel and copper prices rise U.S. recession 2

3 AAON, INC. Table 1. AAON, Inc. Income Statement (in thousands, except where noted) 2014 MarA JunA SepA DecA 2015 MarA JunE SepE DecE 2016E MarE JunE SepE DecE 2017E Sales, net $356,322 $76,768 $90,275 $94,360 $97,229 $358,632 $85,422 $94,789 $100,965 $98,201 $379,377 $92,256 $102,372 $109,042 $106,057 $409,727 Cost of sales 248,059 54,970 63,158 64,175 67, ,951 59,691 64,930 68,757 68, ,119 64,395 69,613 73,604 73, ,791 Gross profit 108,263 21,798 27,117 30,185 29, ,681 25,731 29,858 32,208 29, ,258 27,861 32,759 35,439 32, ,937 SG&A 40,562 8,317 9,200 10,062 9,859 37,438 8,913 9,574 10,601 9,722 38,810 8,949 9,725 10,795 9,757 39,227 Other (305) 5 (30) (34) (59) (8) (8) 0 Operating income 68,006 13,476 17,947 20,157 19,722 71,302 16,826 20,285 21,607 19,738 78,456 18,912 23,034 24,644 23,121 89,710 Operating income (ex. one-time items) 71,725 13,476 17,947 20,157 19,722 71,302 16,826 20,285 21,607 19,738 78,456 18,912 23,034 24,644 23,121 89,710 Interest expense (276) (44) (29) (14) (74) (161) (74) (20) (15) (15) (124) (15) (15) (15) (15) (60) Other (income) expense (27) (117) (87) Income before income taxes 68,246 13,445 18,003 20,113 19,778 71,339 17,017 20,295 21,612 19,743 78,667 18,917 23,039 24,649 23,126 89,730 Income tax provision 24,088 5,046 6,873 6,862 6,830 25,611 6,211 7,509 7,996 7,305 29,021 6,999 8,524 9,120 8,556 33,200 Net Income $44,158 $8,399 $11,130 $13,251 $12,948 $45,728 $10,806 $12,786 $13,615 $12,438 $49,645 $11,918 $14,514 $15,529 $14,569 $56,530 Net Income (ex. one-time items) $45,874 $8,399 $11,130 $13,251 $12,948 $45,728 $10,806 $12,786 $13,615 $12,438 $49,645 $11,918 $14,514 $15,529 $14,569 $56,530 GAAP Diluted EPS $0.80 $0.15 $0.20 $0.24 $0.24 $0.84 $0.20 $0.24 $0.26 $0.23 $0.93 $0.22 $0.27 $0.29 $0.28 $1.07 Diluted EPS $0.83 $0.15 $0.20 $0.24 $0.24 $0.84 $0.20 $0.24 $0.26 $0.23 $0.93 $0.22 $0.27 $0.29 $0.28 $1.07 Diluted shares outstanding 55,370 54,640 54,670 54,580 54,036 54,481 53,430 53,334 53,230 53,130 53,281 53,010 52,890 52,770 52,650 52, % -1.61% -2.20% -0.85% YOY Growth: Revenue 11.0% 0.5% -2.2% -8.3% 14.8% 0.6% 11.3% 5.0% 7.0% 1.0% 5.8% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Cost of sales 7.2% 0.8% -2.0% -7.8% 13.6% 0.8% 8.6% 2.8% 7.1% 1.6% 4.9% 7.9% 7.2% 7.0% 6.5% 7.1% SG&A 19.3% 9.0% -13.1% -27.2% 15.7% -7.7% 7.2% 4.1% 5.4% -1.4% 3.7% 0.4% 1.6% 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% Gross profit 20.6% -0.2% -2.7% -9.5% 17.4% 0.4% 18.0% 10.1% 6.7% -0.4% 7.9% 8.3% 9.7% 10.0% 11.6% 10.0% Operating income 21.8% -5.4% 3.8% 3.3% 16.3% 4.8% 24.9% 13.0% 7.2% 0.1% 10.0% 12.4% 13.6% 14.1% 17.1% 14.3% Net income 22.8% -14.5% -2.1% 6.5% 22.9% -0.3% 28.7% 14.9% 2.7% -3.9% 8.6% 10.3% 13.5% 14.1% 17.1% 13.9% Diluted EPS 28.5% -6.5% -5.9% -6.2% 24.7% 0.9% 31.6% 17.8% 5.4% -2.3% 11.0% 11.2% 14.5% 15.0% 18.2% 14.8% Margin Analysis: COGS/sales 69.6% 71.6% 70.0% 68.0% 69.6% 69.7% 69.9% 68.5% 68.1% 70.0% 69.1% 69.8% 68.0% 67.5% 69.0% 68.5% SG&A/sales 11.4% 10.8% 10.2% 10.7% 10.1% 10.4% 10.4% 10.1% 10.5% 9.9% 10.2% 9.7% 9.5% 9.9% 9.2% 9.6% Gross profit margin 30.4% 28.4% 30.0% 32.0% 30.4% 30.3% 30.1% 31.5% 31.9% 30.0% 30.9% 30.2% 32.0% 32.5% 31.0% 31.5% Operating margin (ex. one-time items) 19.1% 17.6% 19.9% 21.4% 20.3% 19.9% 19.7% 21.4% 21.4% 20.1% 20.7% 20.5% 22.5% 22.6% 21.8% 21.9% Pretax margin 19.2% 17.5% 19.9% 21.3% 20.3% 19.9% 19.9% 21.4% 21.4% 20.1% 20.7% 20.5% 22.5% 22.6% 21.8% 21.9% Net margin 12.4% 10.9% 12.3% 14.0% 13.3% 12.8% 12.7% 13.5% 13.5% 12.7% 13.1% 12.9% 14.2% 14.2% 13.7% 13.8% Tax rate 35.3% 37.5% 38.2% 34.1% 34.5% 35.9% 36.5% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 36.9% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% Source: and company reports 3

4 Appendix Required Disclosures AAON, Inc. (AAON-$27.84) NEUTRAL Target: $25 July 19, 2016 Action Date Px Rating PT PT 8/8/ PT 1/3/ Rating 4/24/ Buy 23 PT 4/24/ PT 5/5/ Rating 2/6/ Neutral 25 PT 8/6/ PT 10/19/ PT 12/17/ PT 2/25/ Key Risks Construction does not improve Steel and copper prices rise U.S. recession Valuation: We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and $25 price target. AAON trade at 29x and 15.5x respective 2016 EPS and EBITDA estimates, or premiums to respective 10-year averages of 19x and 10.5x. Peer LII trades 21x forward EPS and 13.6x forward EBITDA, while the S&P 600 is at a respective 18.7x and 9x. In comparing peers, we encourage investors to look at EV/EBITDA multiples, due to the higher amount of non-cash amortization expenses related to goodwill that Lennox realizes. Our $25 target on AAON now implies a multiple of 23x our 2017 EPS estimate of $1.07 and equates to 12.6x our lower 2017 EBITDA estimate of $103 million, plus net cash of $38 million. Although Lennox is a much larger company than AAON with more market share and a strong management team, we think that AAON s specialization in largertonnage, higher-margin equipment justifies a premium multiple. Previously, we applied a 22x multiple to our prior 2017 EPS estimate of $1.11, or 12.3x our prior 2017 EBITDA estimate of $106 million. While the slight increase to our valuation multiple reflects comparable multiple expansion relative to peers and the broad market, we highlight this as a risk. Valuations for both AAON and LII are about 25%-30% higher than the five-year averages and 50% higher than the 10-year averages. Required Disclosures The (Sidoti) Equity Research rating system consists of BUY and NEUTRAL recommendations. BUY suggests capital appreciation of at least 25% from initiation of coverage over the next 12 months, while NEUTRAL denotes that a stock is not likely to provide similar gains over a 12-month period. As of 07/19/16, Sidoti provides research on 260 companies, of which 186 (71%) are rated BUY and 74 (29%) are rated NEUTRAL. Of the BUYS, Sidoti has received investment banking income from 2 companies (1.08%). Of the NEUTRALS, Sidoti has received investment banking income from 1 company (1.35%). Of the NEUTRALS, 39 trade above our price targets. A risk to our price target is that the analyst s estimates or forecasts may not be met. This report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from such forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, those discussed in the Risk Factors section in the SEC filings available in electronic format through SEC Edgar filings at The research analyst certifies that this report accurately reflects his/her personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that none of the research analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the analyst's specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Sidoti research analysts seek to have management of their covered companies meet with investors during non-deal road shows. Analysts compensation may be related to their success in scheduling non-deal road shows. Sidoti research analysts generally do not cover (or continue to cover) those companies that limit access to their senior executives by not participating in Sidoti-sponsored conferences and non-deal roadshows. A possible effect of this view may be that continued coverage decisions are made, in part, based on the willingness of management of covered companies to participate in such meetings. This approach could be viewed as presenting potential conflicts of interest. Sidoti does NOT own securities of the issues described herein. Sidoti policy does not allow an analyst or a member of their household to own shares in any company that he/she covers. Sidoti policy does not allow employees or household members to serve as an officer or director of a covered company. Sidoti does not make a market in any securities. Sidoti has non-research employees that will seek compensation for investment banking services from this company and trading revenue in connection with trading the securities of this company. Investment banking services, as defined under FINRA Rule 2241, includes, among other things, 4

5 Appendix Continued acting as an underwriter in or as a member of the selling group in a securities underwriting. Sidoti s role in any investment banking transaction can be viewed on this company s filings at Sidoti employees, including research analysts, receive compensation that is based in part upon the overall performance of the firm, including revenues generated by Sidoti s investment banking and brokerage activities, but compensation is not directly related to investment banking or brokerage revenues. Sidoti acted as an agent and received non-investment banking securities-related income from AAON. Other Disclosures This report is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. Sidoti does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report. The stock rating on this report reflects the analyst s recommendation based on a 12 month period. Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee their accuracy. Prices and opinions concerning the composition of market sectors included in this report reflect the judgments as of this date and are subject to change without notice. It should be presumed that the analyst who authored this report has had discussions with the subject company to ensure factual accuracy prior to publication. This report was prepared for market professionals and institutional investor customers. Market professionals and institutional investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This research report is not a substitute for the exercise of your independent judgment. At times, Sidoti may be in possession of material non-public information, none of which is used in the preparation of our research. Sidoti maintains and enforces written policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent any controlling persons, officers (or persons performing similar functions), or employees of Sidoti from influencing the activities of research analysts and the content of research reports prepared by the research analyst. Reprints of reports are prohibited without permission. Additional information is available upon request. 5