Bharti Airtel. Result Update Q4 FY15
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1 Change in Estimates Rating Target Q4 FY15 Bharti Airtel Bharti Q4 margin beat estimate with steady performance from India mobile business India wireless traffic growth healthy at 3.9% qoq though voice pricing decline is a point of concern Africa posted constant currency decline of 1.2% qoq though reported revenues heavily impacted by currency headwinds especially in Nigeria Bharti remains the best bet to play the data growth supported by solid spectrum portfolio; retain BUY for 9 12mth target of Rs465 Result table (Rs cr) Q4 FY15 Q3 FY15 % qoq % yoy FY15 % yoy Net sales 23,040 23,228 (0.8) , Access and IUC (2,799) (2,880) (2.8) (2.6) (11,276) 0.7 Network opex (4,828) (5,301) (8.9) (3.9) (20,337) 3.1 License fees (2,174) (2,217) (2.0) 9.6 (8,739) 15.0 Staff (1,188) (1,165) (4,712) 1.9 S G & A (3,940) (3,879) (15,682) 5.3 Operating profit 8,112 7, , OPM (%) bps 233 bps bps Depreciation (3,840) (3,802) 1.0 (2.6) (15,531) (0.8) Interest (1,970) (1,052) (5,013) 2.2 PBT 2,302 2,932 (21.5) (2.9) 10, Tax (1,081) (1,315) (17.8) (20.3) (5,405) 11.6 Effective tax rate (%) bps (1,108) (1,188) 54.1 bps bps Minority & Associate Exceptional items (147) (292) (49.7) (6.4) (853) Reported PAT 1,255 1,437 (12.6) , India wireless steady; Africa misses again Bharti Airtel reported Q4 revenue decline of 0.8% qoq, +7.3% yoy vs our estimate of +2.3% qoq and 6.7% yoy. India wireless business grew 1.9% qoq while margin continued its upward journey with gain of ~150bps on sequential basis. South Asia revenues declined 2.1% qoq while Africa reported topline fell much more than expected at 9% qoq on the back of severe currency headwinds (revenue weighted currency depreciation in Q4 has been 8% qoq, mainly caused by the depreciation in Nigerian Naira by 15.1%); constant currency decline was 1.2% qoq. Tighter cost control led to better than estimated ~170bps rise in margin to 35.2%. Domestic wireless business continued on revival path though 3.8% qoq decline in voice pricing remains a point of concern; we note Idea reported a larger ~4.8% qoq voice RPM decline, indicating lively competitive intensity. Reported PAT missed our forecast of Rs. 1,480cr though results included Rs. 147cr in exceptional loss arising mainly from charge of Rs. 218cr due to restructuring activities in few countries, Rs. 14cr gain from sale of tower towers and Rs. 57cr credit on reassessment of prior period levies. Rating: Sector: Sector view: Telecom Positive Sensex: 27, Week h/l (Rs): 426/304 Market cap (Rscr) : 149,123 6m Avg vol ( 000Nos): 2,399 Bloomberg code: BHARTI IN BSE code: NSE code: BHARTIARTL FV (Rs): 5 Price as on April 29, 2015 Share price trend Bharti BUY Target: Rs465 CMP: Rs388 Upside: 19.8% Sensex Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Share holding pattern % Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Promoters Insti Others Research Analyst: Bhavesh Gandhi research@indiainfoline.com April 30, 2015 This report is published by IIFL India Private Clients research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets. Result Update
2 Bharti Airtel (Q4 FY15) India KPIs Wireless Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14* Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Subs base (' 000) 181, , , , , , , , , ,017 Additions (' 000) (4,000) 6,298 2,728 2,509 5,056 7,006 3,892 2,341 5,463 8,802 % qoq (56.7) (8.0) (44.4) (39.9) ARPU % qoq (4.0) (2.0) 2.0 (2.0) MOU/sub (mins) % qoq (4.0) (0.7) 0.7 (0.5) (3.9) (0.5) 0.5 Voice RPM % qoq (0.6) (0.6) (0.2) 2.5 (1.0) (0.1) (3.8) Total MOU (cr mins) 24,081 25,314 25,838 25,132 25,503 26,484 27,083 26,391 26,749 27,787 % qoq (2.7) (2.6) Churn (%) Data Customer base (cr) Of which 3G (cr) Total MBs on N/W (cr MBs) 1,978 2,394 2,727 3,363 3,896 4,766 5,561 6,767 7,728 8,663 Data ARPU (Rs) Data usage/ customer (MB) Data realization/mb (paise) Telemedia Customers (' 000) 3,278 3,283 3,289 3,338 3,355 3,356 3,350 3, ,411 Net additions ( 000) (6) ARPU ,010 1,024 1,036 1,034 % qoq (0.2) Traffic (cr mins) Carriers NLD (cr mins) 2,322 2,453 2,380 2,505 2,731 2,858 2,804 2,845 2,914 3,065 % qoq (3.0) (1.9) ILD (cr mins) % qoq (0.9) (11.8) (24.1) (8.8) (1.5) Bharti Infratel Towers 34,668 35,119 35,288 35, ,905 36,112 36,381 36,747 37,196 Sharing factor (x) Sharing rev/op (Rs) 37,863 37,467 37,537 38,819 36,955 37,591 37,428 37,264 36,989 36,843 Indus Towers Towers 111, , , , , , , , , ,942 Sharing factor (x) Sharing rev/op (Rs) 31,969 31,718 DTH services Customers (' 000) 7,894 8,100 8,452 8,572 8,807 9,012 9,388 9,540 9,810 10,073 Net adds ( 000) ARPU Monthly churn (%) `
3 Bharti Airtel (Q4 FY15) India wireless: voice pricing declines, data volume slows to 12% qoq As was seen in the case of Idea, voice RPM declined 3.8% qoq to 36.2p in Q4 vs our expectation of marginal uptick while volume growth remained healthy (+3.9% qoq) on the back of seasonality tailwind. Data volume growth (2G+3G) slowed to 12% qoq from the average 19% qoq seen in the previous four quarters in contrast to Idea s 18.3% sequential rise. Growth in data usage/customer declined to 5% qoq from double digit growth seen in the previous two quarters. Blended data pricing fell 2% qoq to 26.8p/MB. Non wireless: DTH turns EBIT +ve Telemedia: Telemedia revenue growth at 1.1% qoq on the back of 4.2% qoq rise in traffic and higher net adds offset to some extent by 0.25 qoq drop in ARPUs DTH: DTH turned EBIT +ve in Q4 while EBIDTA margin improved to 32.7%; both ARPUs and churn remained stable qoq and revenues up 1.8% qoq Airtel Business: Enterprise business revenue jumped 10.1% qoq though EBIDTA margin declined to 17.3% from ~22% in Q3. Segment wise growth % qoq Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Wireless India (2.1) (0.9) Wireless S Asia (1.6) 0.5 (2.6) (10.9) (2.7) (2.1) Telemedia Airtel Business (7.6) (3.7) 0.7 (1.2) 5.8 (5.1) 10.1 Tower Infra scvs 3.3 (2.5) (1.8) (0.1) (0.4) (1.3) DTH (0.5) 1.8 Segment wise margin EBIDTA margin (%) Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Wireless India Telemedia Airtel Business Tower Infra scvs DTH Africa CC growth declines 1.2% qoq Africa headline US$ revenues were impacted by large currency headwinds during the quarter which makes the constant currency revenue decline of 1.2% qoq a much more meaningful metric to gauge the performance. EBIDTA margin expectedly declined to 20.7%. VAS share increased 170bps qoq to 25.2% while traffic grew 2.3% on sequential basis. Africa financial highlights US$ mn Q4 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Revenues 1,120 1,062 1,119 1,165 1,145 1,164 1,140 1,103 1,000 % qoq (1.1) (5.2) (1.7) 1.7 (2.1) (3.2) (9.3) EBIDTA EBIDTA margin (%) EBIT EBIT margin (%) PBT (91) (50) (48) (100) (124) (77) (69) (115) PAT (90) (106) (105) (154) (170) (137) (124) (136) Capex Capex/sales
4 Bharti Airtel (Q4 FY15) Africa: trend in operating metrics Key metrics Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Subscriber base (cr) Net adds (cr) (0.04) % qoq (76.1) (11.3) (41.1) 41.7 (48.5) ARPU (US$/sub) Voice RPM (USc/min) % qoq (14.4) (2.4) 0.4 (2.5) (7.1) (7.3) (13.3) MOU (mins/sub) Monthly churn (%) Non voice rev % of mobile revs 25.2 Mobile traffic (cr mins) 2,597 2,785 2,827 2,816 2,826 2,897 3,036 3,105 % qoq (0.4) Africa data highlights Data Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Customer base (cr) % of customer base Total MBs on the network (cr MBs) ,126 Data ARPU (US $) Data Usage/customer (MB) Data Realization/MB (US c) Best bet to play the data growth; spectrum holdings provide comfort on 4G: BUY Bharti has fortified its spectrum holdings in the Mar 15 auctions and is now comfortably placed in 3G and 4G stakes especially in view of impending Ril Jio launch on 4G. Though blended data growth slowed in Q4, we remain bullish on the underlying growth potential given the vast 3G footprint of the company. We tweak our FY16/17 estimates on the back of FY15 numbers and retain BUY with unchanged 9 12mth target of Rs465. Financial summary Y/e 31 Mar (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Revenues 85,864 92, , ,160 yoy growth (%) Operating profit 27,777 31,388 35,657 39,961 OPM (%) PAT 2,773 5,184 6,428 7,907 yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Price/Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Debt/Equity (x) ROE (%) RoCE (%)
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