THE PRUDENT PALADIN THE PALADIN GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY

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1 THE PRUDENT PALADIN THE PALADIN GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY FAILING OFTEN 3 rd quarter, 2018 As usual, your editors look to the National Pastime for content this quarter. As we write, we are in the throes of the pennant races, and it brings us back to a you can fail 70% of the time and be considered successful? What if you were a sniper in the military? What if you were a heart surgeon? What if you were a quote by possibly the best hitter commercial airline pilot? 70% to have ever played the game: failure would lead to immediate Ted Williams. He references an termination! We are of the oddity in baseball, where the opinion that sometimes, best hitters fail more than 2 times as often as they succeed. For our diversification can feel like being a major league hitter with a.300 readers who average. may not be accustomed BASEBALL IS THE ONLY FIELD OF ENDEAVOR WHERE Sure, everyone to baseball, gets it and A MAN CAN SUCCEED 3 let us explain. understands In baseball, TIMES OUT OF 10 AND BE CONSIDERED A GOOD why it makes hitters are PERFORMER. TED sense, but it judged by still means WILLIAMS their batting you re often average, times having which is calculated by how many times you approach the plate and get a hit (excluding walks and errors, but that s neither here nor there). If you ve ever heard the term 300 hitter, it means that person is successful 30% of the time, and is often times to deal with failure. The goal of most investments, be it a bond, stock, piece of real estate, or commodity like gold, is to beat inflation, pure and simple. Inflation this year has ranged between 2.07% and 2.95% i, so if we assume a rough midpoint as considered among the top 2.5%, how easy or hard would it hitters, since it is so difficult to obtain. Ted makes a great point: is there any other part of life where have been to beat that mark with various investments? Let s take a look. On the stock side, we all know the US has done well, but notably the financial, staples, real estate, materials, and telecommunications sectors all did not beat inflation. That s 5 sectors out of the 11 available in the S&P sector ii, a good average for baseball, but likely disappointing to many investors. How about the rest of the world? The UK, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, Hong Kong, China, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Malaysia all did not beat inflation. Who did outside the USA? France, Russia, Mexico, that s it. iii What about bonds? Interest rates have been rising, so it shouldn t be too hard to get an above inflation level return when US rates have been rising, right? Wrong. Out of all of the bond sectors we track, the only one that beat inflation was the US High Yield index, iv and given our worries about the space, it s not likely many of our readers have a high exposure there.

2 Ok Paladin Group, you may be saying to yourself, we know there s something other than a few random stock markets that has done well, right? The only other market we track that is up is energy. Master Limited Partnerships are up 5.9% as of quarter end and oil prices are up between % depending on which index you look at. While this may make some of your energy holdings rise in price, it also hurts our wallets at the pump. v That first page may have you wondering why anyone would own anything but US stocks at this point in the cycle, they have been the best performing part of the market for the past 9+ years and so far this year, they are one of the few asset classes that has beaten inflation. This is precisely the conundrum of diversified investors: what do we do when only a small handful of pieces of the investment universe are gaining? The choices are not appealing, to say the least. On the one hand, you could abandon the principle of diversification and hope that what has done well will continue to do well indefinitely (meaning you should increase exposure to US stocks while decreasing bonds and non-us stocks). Or, you could stick to diversification and be whacked around for an unknown period of time until momentum shifts in your favor and some of your non-us stock holdings do better. I think all of you, our readers, know where we stand. We would never advocate leaving the US stock market entirely. However, the name of this newsletter includes prudent for a reason. We prefer to go where the potential rewards for taking risk are the highest, and decrease emphasis on areas where potential rewards are lowest. This means, as we ve said ad nauseam in recent newsletters: favor non-us stocks and take profits in the US. Within the US, favor those sectors which have not does as well as many of the growth sectors. It is always uncomfortable to try to resist the urge to rush towards what has done well recently, so we empathize with our readers that what we re suggesting feels wrong. After all, there are concerns abroad about government spending, slow economic growth, lackluster earnings, low interest rates, and so on. Why would anyone invest outside the US when Europe, Asia, and the Emerging Markets all share some of those issues? This is where history helps, it puts things into context. Imagine the following: you re only 2 years removed from a double digit unemployment rate, the highest in nearly 30 years, your real GDP growth rate has been declining and is below 2%, a bond rating agency just downgraded your debt and named the outlook for your nation negative, and your budget deficit just broke 10% for the first time since World War 2. Who in the world would want to invest in a market like that? vi What would you say if I told you that market returned over 13.5% per year from that period until now? If you haven t read between the lines just yet, that was exactly the situation the United States was in from 2011 until this most recent quarter end. Remember the fiscal cliff? Remember the deficit blowing out to over 10%? Remember when the government shut down for 2 weeks in 2013? We think you get the idea by now, but just to be sure, let s summarize. We are not in any way saying that bad news leads to good returns, that assertion would be preposterous. Sometimes, there are good fundamental reasons why markets do poorly. What we are saying, however, is that there will always be a reason not to invest. There are always headlines that can cause you to doubt your thesis. There will always be naysayers to diversification, touting their recent run of performance (which many cannot empirically prove is anything more than being at the right place at the right time by accident). Unfortunately, we re not smart enough to put this into one salient point, but Warren Buffett is: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

3 As we mentioned, US stocks have led the way this year, with the MSCI USA finishing the quarter up 10.6%, and the rest of the world was not so fortunate. The MSCI Emerging Markets index was down 7.5%, the MSCI Europe Index was down 2.1%, the MSCI BRIC HOUSE Japan index was up a measly 1.8%, the MSCI India index was down 9.6%, and the MSCI China index was down 9.1%. In the fixed income world, as we mentioned, only US high yield had returns above inflation. The US aggregate bond index was down 1.2% and the global bond index (excluding the US) was down 1.1%. The 10 year US Treasury finished the quarter at 3.06%, up from 2.74% last quarter. vii While we are sure there are some Commodores fans in our clientele, this section is about the introduction of yet another acronym BRIC. 15 years ago (October 2003), Goldman Sachs published a paper entitled Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to viii BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and the main takeaway from the paper is that by the middle of the 21 st century, these 4 emerging market economies could be among the most influential in the world, usurping many more established economies in GDP rankings. It is not our place to say where Goldman was right and where they were wrong. Projections such as these are incredibly difficult to make, and even more difficult to make accurately. However, the importance of this paper along with the current state of emerging market economies makes it worth noting. As we mentioned in our 1 st quarter 2017 newsletter (ask us if you would like a copy), every nation and its investors tends to have a home country bias, meaning the proportion of one s investments dedicated to their country of domicile is not proportional to that country s share of the global economy. This home country bias can lead us to be afraid of investing in emerging markets such as the BRIC countries. For one they are foreign to us, they may have different cultures, languages, government systems, and so on. However, the demographics, potential growth, and long term fundamentals look great. Imagine if you will, having the ability to invest in the United States stock market in 1880, right after the Civil War and all of the issues that came from that. Knowing what you know now, would you do it? Of course you would! While we cannot claim that the emerging markets countries will ever turn into another USA, we do feel there are reasons to have exposure there, especially during times like today when performance is negative and doubt is high. Sincerely yours, The Paladin Group at Morgan Stanley

4 Randy Hartley, CFP Vann Russell Robert Randolph William Nave Virginia Whitley Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Financial Advisor Glenwood Ave Suite 320 Raleigh NC toll free fax fa.morganstanley.com/paladin

5 i Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics ii Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Markets iii Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Markets iv Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Markets v Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Markets vi Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, White House Office of Management and Budget vii Source: Morgan Stanley Capital Markets viii Source: The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The strategies and/or investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a Financial Advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor s individual circumstances and objectives. International investing may not be suitable for every investor and is subject to additional risks, including currency fluctuations, political factors, withholding, lack of liquidity, the absence of adequate financial information, and exchange control restrictions impacting foreign issuers. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii) governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v) trading activities in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity. In addition, the commodities markets are subject to temporary distortions or other disruptions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, participation of speculators and government intervention. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally the longer a bond's maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which is the risk that the issuer will redeem the debt at its option, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. The market value of debt instruments may fluctuate, and proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than the amount originally invested or the maturity value due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Bonds are subject to the credit risk of the issuer. This is the risk that the issuer might be unable to make interest and/or principal payments on a timely basis. Bonds are also subject to reinvestment risk, which is the risk that principal and/or interest payments from a given investment may be reinvested at a lower interest rate. Bonds rated below investment grade may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk and price volatility in the secondary market. Investors should be careful to consider these risks alongside their individual circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance before investing in high-yield bonds. High yield bonds should comprise only a limited portion of a balanced portfolio. Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are (rolled-up) limited partnerships or limited liability companies that are taxed as partnerships and whose interests (limited partnership units or limited liability company units) are traded on securities exchanges like shares of common stock. Currently, most MLPs operate in the energy, natural resources or real estate sectors. Investments in MLP interests are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. Because of their narrow focus, MLPs maintain exposure to price volatility of commodities and/or underlying assets and tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. MLPs are also subject to additional risks including: investors having limited control and rights to vote on matters affecting the MLP, limited access to capital, cash flow risk, lack of liquidity, dilution risk, conflict of interests, and limited call rights related to acquisitions. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustration purposes only and do not show the performance of any specific investment. Reference to an index does not imply that the portfolio will achieve return, volatility or other results similar to the index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility, or tracking error target, all of which are subject to change over time. For index, indicator and survey definitions referenced in this report please visit the following: Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining financial market. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC. CRC /18