3Q17 Earnings preview

Transcription

1 COVERAGE EARNINGS PREVIEW Turkey All Coverage 20 October Q17 Earnings preview Turkish stocks completed Q3 with a 2.5% gain on top of the 28.5% increase in H1 owing to global rally, compression of risk premia and strong domestic sentiment spurred by generous incentive packages and loosening measures for credit market. BIST outperformed MSCI EM Index by 5% in Q3 albeit with a c.37% relative discount by end of September in terms of 12M trailing fwd P/E. Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, we remain of the view that outright risk aversion has NOT yet taken the driver's seat and it s all about a softening in sentiment and tone just in a consolidation mode. Rather, risk-on market sentiment still remains a core play on the backdrop of favourable global liquidity conditions, strong growth, eased regulatory environment and attractive multiples. Even if investors currently prefer to keep on their guard, some accounts may prefer to re-engage at better levels as market conditions still offer promising return opportunities as well as less costly hedging solutions. Banking sector overview Treasury-backed credit-guarantee fund (CGF) dominated core business activity in Q3 with the CGF utilisation reaching 69% of the overall limit of TRY250bn. Banks continued to keep their foot on business lending as the CGF scheme supported asset quality profile and profitability owing to the zero risk weighting. Hence, TRY loan growth significantly outpaced TRY deposit growth, bringing TRY loan-to-deposit (LDR) ratio to c.140% as of 3Q17. The CGF driven acceleration in TRY loan growth and TRY funding squeeze offered an unpleasant cocktail for local currency costs. Hence, Turkish lenders saw higher financing costs while the sector failed to fully reflect the increased CBRT funding costs to loan pricing until late Q3 given the maturity mismatch between deposits and loans. While cross-currency swap utilisation appears to have inched-up, we expect swap costs to remain flattish owing to slight decline in swap rates in Q3 amid favourable global conditions. Nevertheless, blended core spreads are expected to contract by an average 18bps for Tier1 banks under our coverage as loan yield expansion seems to have remained insufficient to offset deposit cost increase. Coupled with c.20% QoQ missing in CPI linker income, Tier1 banks reported NIM and swap adj. NIM are expected to somewhat deteriorate, by 15bps and 16bps QoQ in Q3, respectively. Also, worth noting that we align our earnings forecasts with the 2ppts increase in the corporate tax rate to 22%. This tax alteration should have a direct negative impact on Turkish financial sector bottom-line (Including banking, insurance and other financial sectors) by 2.5% after coming in to effect. The Q3 earnings season in the financial sector will kick-off with AKBNK and TSKB on Oct 25. Among Tier1 banks, we expect GARAN to encounter least QoQ earnings contraction in Q3 owing to revision based pick-up in CPI linker income, strong fee performance and eased provision burden. We model c.10% QoQ EPS decline for the remaining privately owned Tier1 names AKBNK, ISCTR and YKBNK, mainly due to relatively weaker NII and continued trading losses. As for the state-run names, HALKB and VAKBN, we expect a relatively higher rate of contraction on EPS reaching c.20% QoQ. Considering non-tier1 banks, TSKB should stand out as the best positioned name in our coverage with c.7% QoQ bottom-line expansion, while ALBRK appears to be the weakest name with c.85% QoQ drop in EPS. Non-Financial sectors overview Among steel companies EREGL would benefit from favourable product pricing with the TRY depreciation since c.76% of its costs are USD denominated against 100% USD based revenue generation. The company also offers a nice cushion with its hard-currency denominated net cash position that provides support for the stock price during times of market turmoil which is one of the main reasons EREGL is picked as a defensive play. TUPRS should continue to post impressive results supported by their strong CUR performance and the lately soaring Mediterranean refining margins. PETKM is also among the companies that benefits from rising ethylene-naphtha spreads where the company could take advantage of strong USD. Moreover, potential further depreciation of TRY against USD might solidify the market position of PETKM against its importer competitors where PETKM s revenue is USD-based and its COGS are 15% TRY-denominated. Amid the glass producers, TRKCM could stand out with impressive results backed by steady flat glass and auto glass demand and margin expansion which could very well bring them a higher operational profitability on a YoY and QoQ basis. We expect TKFEN to post positive results driven by its strong contracting business and agriculture operations. The real estate segment could also provide some support with the latest deliveries. We anticipate a substantial YoY increase in TKFEN s operational profitability also considering the base effect. KCHOL s earnings could also have a boost especially with the positive contribution from its oil&gas segment experiencing steady CUR and higher margins and auto segment benefitting from strong exports with rising EUR/TRY. Fertilizer producers such as BAGFS and GUBRF could continue to post disappointing results for 3Q17 as well with product prices still not rising and volumes sagging. Additionally, we believe TTKOM and TCELL continue to post strong operational performance, while aviation sector to enjoy strict cost control and relatively stronger passenger numbers. Relatively weak European markets may have slight negative impact on exporters. Due to the weak base last year, CCOLA is expected to post strong domestic results, while the sharp excise tax hikes may continue to hurt AEFES domestic revenues. Lastly, while operational performance of BIZIM might be hurt by the change in business plans, TOASO and FROTO should benefit from strong domestic sales and the weakening of TRY against EUR. Deadlines for 3Q17 financials: Unconsolidated: Banks ( ), Non-Banks ( ) Consolidated: Banks ( ), Non-Banks ( ) Relatively STRONG bank results expected GARAN BUY % TSKB BUY % Relatively WEAK bank results expected ALBRK HOLD % HALKB HOLD % VAKBN HOLD % Relatively STRONG non-bank results expected EREGL BUY % FROTO HOLD % KCHOL BUY % PETKM BUY % PGSUS HOLD % TCELL HOLD % THYAO BUY % TKFEN BUY % TOASO HOLD % TRKCM BUY % TUPRS BUY % Relatively WEAK non-bank results expected BAGFS SELL % BIZIM BUY % GUBRF REDUCE % 190, , , , , ,000 75,000 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Apr 2017 Jul 2017 Oct 2017 All share price data as at close on 19-Oct Source:, Company Data Performance (XU100) 1M 3M 6M 12M Absolute 3% 1% 19% 37% Relative $ -1% -3% 19% 15% Research Director Sertan Kargin sertank@global.com.tr Analyst Kerem Mimaroglu Utku Uygur, Ph. D keremm@global.com.tr utkuu@global.com.tr Evren Gezer Filiz Sari Ozcan evreng@global.com.tr filizo@global.com.tr Cem Unal cemu@global.com.tr XBANK & XUSIN Price Performance XBANK (LHS) Research contact for general inquiry research@global.com.tr Yesilce Mah. Eski Buyukdere Cad. No: 65 Kat: Istanbul Turkey Global Menkul Degerler XUSIN (RHS) 125, , ,000 95,000 85,000

2 Table 1 QoQ Bank net earnings forecast (TRYmn) Sector Company name Ticker 3Q17E 3Q16 YoY 2Q17 QoQ Comment Banking Akbank AKBNK Net earnings 1,359 1,105 23% 1,501-9% Rising deposit costs led to contraction in core spreads which should result in c.30bps QoQ decline in NIM Weaker NII and other income, and slightly elevated provisions burden should lead to c.10% QoQ contraction on NI Banking Albaraka Turk ALBRK Net earnings % 96-85% Missing JVP contraction resulted in sharp QoQ decline in NIM figures in Q3 Much weaker NII, still elevated provisions expense should lead to c.80% QoQ NI contraction Banking Garanti Bank GARAN Net earnings 1,501 1,331 13% 1,554-3% Banking Halkbank HALKB Net earnings % 1,009-21% Banking Isbank ISCTR Net earnings 1,132 1,049 8% 1,244-9% Banking TSKB TSKB Net earnings % 151 6% Sustained core spread and revision based pick-up in CPI contribution should come up with close-to-flat increase in NIM Robust core revenue performance should limit bottom-line contraction despite weaker other income and higher provisions burden Sharp drop in CPI linker income coupled with contraction in core spreads should lead to c.70bps QoQ NIM worsening More than 15% decline in NII should lead to c.20% QoQ contraction on NI despite c.try230mn dividend income contribution Elevated deposit costs should induce weaker core spread performance pulling down NIM figures by c.10bps QoQ Inched down NII and less contribution from dividends should result in c.10% QoQ decline in NI despite eased OPEX figures Revision based pick-up in CPI contribution should lead to c.10bps QoQ NIM expansion despite slight contraction in core spreads Sustained NII progression and halved trading loss should yield to c.7% QoQ NI growth Banking Vakifbank VAKBN Net earnings % % Missing CPI linker income mixed with decline in core spreads should lead to c.70bps QoQ NIM contraction Weaker NII should result in c.20% QoQ decline in NI despite eased provisions burden Banking Yapi Kredi Bank YKBNK Net earnings % % Source:, Company Data Rising core spread sponsored by strong loan yields should lead to close-to-flat QoQ increase in NIM figures Elevated provisions burden and increased trading loss should result in c.10% QoQ contraction in NI despite solid NII performance Table 2 QoQ Non-Bank financials forecast (TRYmn) Sector Company name Ticker 3Q17E 3Q16 YoY 2Q17 QoQ Comment Beverage Anadolu Efes AEFES Revenues 3,970 3,243 22% 3,757 6% Robust volume growth in international markets & weak TL vs. local currencies EBITDA % % Margins under pressure in major markets (TR - lower volumes, RUS - higher share of modern channel) Net earnings % % Growth in earnings with relatively favorable FX rates Durables Arcelik ARCLK Revenues 5,408 4,083 32% 5,061 7% Domestic relatively lower vs. 1H, a small pick in export markets EBITDA % % Margins close to long term averages Net earnings % % Fertilisers Bagfas BAGFS Revenues % 74 38% Declining product prices puts pressure on revenue generation EBITDA % 6 82% Margin contraction affects the operational profitability negatively Net earnings 0-10 n.m. -15 n.m. Retail Bim Magazalar BIMAS Revenues 6,168 5,056 22% 6,213-1% Ahead of guidance growth w/ high CPI EBITDA % 325-2% EBITDA margin within the guidance range Net earnings % 216-2% Retail Bizim Magazalar BIZIM Revenues % 727 2% Revenues contined to be under pressure w/ shift in stratgy EBITDA % 8 76% Margins to decline with lack of operational leverage Net earnings -3 4 n.m % Beverage Coca Cola Icecek CCOLA Revenues 2,724 2,245 21% 2,559 6% Robust revenues w/ weaker TL vs. last year and high NRTD tea volume EBITDA % 493 5% Better margins compared to weak last year Net earnings % % Auto Dogus Otomotiv DOAS Revenues 2,955 2,601 14% 3,130-6% Domestic sales increased in 3Q, following the weak base EBITDA % 117-9% Better margins compared to weak last year Net earnings % 41-32% Higher financial expenses caused a contraction in the bottom-line. REIT Emlak Konut REIT EKGYO Revenues 1,155 1,794-36% % Recent land sale could provide some support to revenue generation. EBITDA % % The stock is trading at 44% discount compared to 3yr average of %40. Net earnings % % Construction Enka Insaat ENKAI Revenues 2,475 2,552-3% 2,504-1% Positive contribution mostly from the energy segment EBITDA % 572 2% EBITDA margin increase supported mainly by energy and real estate segments. Net earnings % 728-5% Steel Eregli Demir celik EREGL Revenues 4,598 2,702 70% 4,684-2% Increasing product spreads and steady volumes supporting operational profitability EBITDA 1, % 1,209 9% Favourable hard-currency cash position of the company Net earnings % 867 6% Source:, Company Data Page 2 of 6

3 Table 3 QoQ Non-Banks financials forecast (TRYmn) Sector Company name Ticker 3Q17E 3Q16 YoY 2Q17 QoQ Comment Auto Ford Otosan FROTO Revenues 5,329 3,840 39% 6,258-15% 39% increase in revenues on strong domestic sales and export pricing EBITDA % % Slightly better EBITDA margin yet below 3Q16 Net earnings % % Fertilisers Gubre Fabrik. GUBRF Revenues % % Declining product prices puts pressure on revenue generation Conglo. Koc Holding KCHOL EBITDA % 17-38% We expect a poor sales performance from domestic operations due to lower product prices compared to previous quarter Net earnings 2-33 n.m % Iranian operations once again might disappoint in terms of revenue and EBITDA generation TUPRS (weaker TRY and high refining margins) and AYGAZ (weaker TRY) provide support for energy segment profitability. Net earnings 1, % 1,417-4% Auto segment also could drive the earnings with higher exports Retail Migros Ticaret MGROS Revenues 4,327 3,079 41% 3,923 10% Positive contribution of Kipa revenues mitigate relatively slower YoY revenue growth EBITDA % % Kipa's EBITDA contribution will be dilutive Net earnings n.m % Aviation Pegasus PGSUS Revenues 1,990 1,371 45% 1,223 63% Robust revenue growth with weak TRY & pax growth EBITDA % % Margins recover with higher no. of pax Net earnings % % Petro Chem. Petkim PETKM Revenues 1, % 1,860 3% Solid operating volume with high capacity utilisation EBITDA % 441 2% Favourable product spreads supporting the operational profitability Net earnings % % Conglo. Sabancı Holding SAHOL Net earnings % 790-4% Industrials could bring some additional contribution Glass Sise Cam SISE Revenues 2,629 2,005 31% 2,776-5% Flat glass segment could make a positive surprise increasing the overall operational performance EBITDA % 608-3% Chemicals and glass packaging segments also resumed their steady performance Net earnings % 254 4% Chemicals Soda Sanayii SODA Revenues % 563-2% The recent capacity increase by CINER puts pressure on the soda ash prices EBITDA % 146-7% We anticipate lower operational profitability due to lower margin compared to the previous quarter Net earnings % 116 9% Aviation TAV Airports TAVHL Revenues % % Better pax traffic support both top-line and profitability ( mn) EBITDA % % Net earnings % % Conglo. Tekfen Holding TKFEN Revenues 1, % 1,707-2% Contracting business continues to increase its profitability with record high contracting backlog EBITDA % % Real estate operations could finally start to provide some positive contribution Net earnings n.m % Telecom Turkcell TCELL Revenues 4,753 3,596 32% 4,175 14% Robust growth of data services and positive contribution of finance arm continue EBITDA 1,664 1,197 39% 1,453 15% Margins still robust Net earnings % % Aviation Turkish Airlines THYAO Revenues 3,462 2,933 18% 2,605 33% Pax numbers relatively better vs. 1Q ($ mn) EBITDA 1, % % Cost control continued in the quarter Net earnings % -59 n.m. Appreciation of USD vs. EUR and JPY may boost bottom line Auto Tofas Oto. Fab. TOASO Revenues 4,049 3,112 30% 4,499-10% Strong domestic sales but international shipments were relatively weak EBITDA % 470-8% Margins still robust Net earnings % 312-8% REIT Torunlar GYO TRGYO Revenues % % Steady rent income support the top-line growth EBITDA % 83 28% The residence sales are picking up backing up the revenue generation Net earnings n.m % Glass Trakya Cam TRKCM Revenues 1, % 1,076-4% Price increases in both domestic and international markets EBITDA % 230 8% High capacity utilization with steady sales performance supporting the volume growth Net earnings % 147 5% Decline in soda ash prices lowering the costs and improving the margins Telecom Turk Telekom TTKOM Revenues 4,539 4,118 10% 4,501 1% Growth trend in broadband continues, supported by ARPU growth in mobile EBITDA 1,603 1,426 12% 1,629-2% Robust EBITDA margin Net earnings % % Auto Turk Traktor TTRAK Revenues 1, % 1,091-4% EBITDA % 121 3% 54% increase in revenues thanks to c.10% price increase in third quarter and higher domestic and export volumes Net earnings % 83-13% Oil & Gas Tupras TUPRS Revenues 12,668 9,451 34% 12,631 0% Rising product cracks and stable volume with high CUR supporting the operational performance EBITDA 1, % 1,480 12% Continuing stable trends in med refining margins Net earnings 1, % 1,457 0% Conf. Ulker Biskuvi ULKER Revenues % 1,114-12% Relatively slower revenue growth vs. 2Q w/ lower contribution from international markets EBITDA % % Lower raw material prices help margins Net earnings % 84-33% Source:, Company Data Page 3 of 6

4 Date of completion of this report: :50 UTC+3 Date of -distribution of this report: :55 UTC+3 Explanation of Rating System 12-MONTH RATING DEFINITION BUY: Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 15% and are the most attractive stocks in our coverage universe on a 12- month horizon. HOLD: Hold stocks are expected to deliver a positive total return of up to 15% within a 12-month period. REDUCE: Reduce stocks are expected to achieve a negative total return up to -10% within a 12-month period. SELL: Sell stocks are expected to post a negative total return of more than -10% within a 12-month period. ANALYST CERTIFICATION We, Sertan Kargin, Kerem Mimaroglu, Evren Gezer, Utku Uygur, Filiz Sari Ozcan and Cem Unal, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the market and, in conjunction with the named analysts, the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION This material was produced by Global Menkul Değerler A.Ş. ( GMD ) or its Affiliates, solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the world by GMD or an authorised affiliate of GMD (such entities and any other entity, directly or indirectly, controlled by GMD, the Affiliates ). This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of GMD or its Affiliates or any other company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources which GMD or its Affiliates consider to be reliable. None of GMD or its Affiliates accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions. GMD or its Affiliates have not recently been the beneficial owners of 1% or more of the securities mentioned in this report; GMD or its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering of these securities, or received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months. However, one or more of GMD or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those securities or options thereon either on their own account or on behalf of their clients. GMD or its Affiliates may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above or the research or analysis on which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report. Page 4 of 6

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