Copper-Gold: Developer / Explorer AVANCO RESOURCES LIMITED (AVB) AVB.asx Speculative Buy

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1 AVB.asx Speculative Buy Copper-Gold: Developer / Explorer Avanco Resources Limited (AVB) AVANCO RESOURCES LIMITED (AVB) Equity raise funds Brazilian Cu-Au developer Avanco Resources has announced plans to raise ~A$80m through the placement of 249m shares to Greenstone Resources LP (A$19.9M) and a 2 for 7 non-renounceable rights issue to existing shareholders (A$44.2M) at $0.08 per share. The deal will trigger the existing Blackrock royalty (A$15.6M) and sees the Antas (Stage 1) starter project fully funded (requires ~A$78m capex) into production. Debt funding postponed, may potentially be used for Stage 2 The Company had originally indicated the Antas project would be financed through a project finance facility offered by the Brazilian banks. The process took longer than originally planned and AVB subsequently pursued an alternative funding solution. The Company will now commence development of the Antas (Stage 1) project with an aim to produce in the order of 12ktpa Cu and 7kozpa from early CY16. The Antas project is expected to have a ~7-9 month build time with all long lead items already procured. The Company is likely to continue seeking project financing with an aim to potentially use it to fund the larger Pedra Branca (Stage 2). Strong balance sheet allows Stage 2 to be fast-tracked The Company will now begin development of Antas (Stage 1) and look to fasttrack the development of Pedra Branca (Stage 2). With a strong balance sheet and quick payback on Stage 1, the Pedra Branca (Stage 2) funding and development is now more likely to progress rapidly and uninhibited. The free cashflow generated from Stage 1 (~$40mpa) will now be available entirely for the capital investment in Stage 2 (we estimate ~US$200m capex is required). We see the Pedra Branca (Stage 2) project as a potential company maker producing up to ~30ktpa Cu and 25kozpa Au at good margins over a minelife beyond 10 years. Staged Pedra Branca not required, model updated We had originally assumed a staged production profile for Pedra Branca and now see the stronger balance sheet offers potential for the flagship project to begin at a 1.5Mtpa run rate. Our previous modelling was based on a staged approach with the first 2 years underground mining the East deposit only. We now model the East and West deposits being mined simultaneously from CY18. We believe Pedra Branca has potential to position AVB into the midtier of copper producers with a combined production of ~40ktpa Cu, 25kozpa Au. We expect infill drilling results for Pedra Branca in the short term with feasibility work ongoing and a potential decision to mine in early CY16. Pedra Branca will require a ~18 month build time to establish the underground operations although we see potential for early open pit mining before our estimated CY18 start date. AVB is actively looking at options to bring Pedra Branca online earlier than first predicted, it is understood the major shareholders see value in developing the Stage 2 project as soon as possible. Maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation The addition of a third cornerstone investor is highly encouraging and highlights the quality of both projects. We like the staged approach which allows AVB to build a mid-tier copper producer over the coming years. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and a price target of 12 cents. Share Price Valuation $0.13 Price Target (12 month) $0.12 Brief Business Description: Cu-Au developer and explorer Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Brazilian Cu-Au developer ~12ktpa Cu & 7kozpa Au from Antas (stage 1) with growth potential at Pedra Branca (stage 2) Chairman & MD Colin Jones (Chairman & Non-Exec Director) Tony Polglase (Managing Director) Top Shareholders (est) Greenstone 15.0% Appian Natural Resources Fund 15.0% Blackrock Group 14.7% Company Address Level 3, 680 Murray St West Perth WA, 6873 Issued Capital (after raising) - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted Cash (est) Debt EV EV/Resource lb Prelim. (A$m) CY14a CY15e CY16e Prod (kt Cu) Op Cash Flw Norm NPAT CF/Share (cps) EPS (cps) P/E Mt Cu (%) Au (g/t) Resources Reserves (ROM) Reserves (Total) May-14 Scott Williamson Resources Analyst Avanco Resources Ltd Ph: E: scott_williamson@hartleys.com.au 28 Apr 2015 $ m m A$191.6m A$199.2m A$90.0m A$0.0m A$101.6m A$0.06/lb A$ 0.06 M Sep-14 Jan Apr-15 Volume - RHS Source: IRESS AVB Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS Hartleys Limited ABN (AFSL ) 141 Page St Georges 1 of 6 Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website

2 SUMMARY MODEL Avanco Resources Ltd Share Price AVB $0.078 Speculative Buy Key Market Information Directors Company Information Share Price $0.078 Colin Jones (Chairman & Non-Exec Director) Level 3, 680 Murray St Market Capitalisation - ordinary A$192m Tony Polglase (Managing Director) West Perth WA, 6873 Net Debt (cash) -A$90m Scott Funston (Dir/Company Sec) Market Capitalisation - fully diluted A$199m Simon Mottram (Executive Director) EV A$109m Wayne Phillips (Executive Director) Issued Capital m Luis Azevedo(Non-Exec Director) Options 97.6 Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options) m Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. all options and new capital) m Valuation $0.13 Top Shareholders (est) m shares % 12month price target $0.12 Greenstone Appian Natural Resources Fund P&L Unit 30 Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec 17 Blackrock Group Net Revenue A$m Glencore Total Costs A$m EBITDA A$m Reserves & Resources Mt Cu (%) Au (g/t) Cu (kt) Au (koz) - margin -96% % 54% TOTAL RESOURCE (inclusive of Reserve) Depreciation/Amort A$m Measured EBIT A$m Indicated Net Interest A$m Inferred Norm. Pre-Tax Profit A$m Reserve Reported Tax Expense A$m Normalised NPAT A$m Abnormal Items A$m Production Summary Unit Jun 14 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Reported Profit A$m Mill Throughput Mt Minority A$m Strip Ratio x Profit Attrib A$m Mined grade % Combined Recovery & Payability % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.0% 81.0% Balance Sheet Unit 30 Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec 17 Copper (kt) Cash A$m Gold (koz) Other Current Assets A$m Copper Equiv (kt) Total Current Assets A$m M&I Resource Conversion % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.2% 58.2% Property, Plant & Equip. A$m Mine Life yr Exploration A$m Investments/other A$m Costs Unit Jun 14 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m Cost per milled tonne $A/t Total Assets A$m EBITDA / tonne milled ore $A/t Short Term Borrowings A$m C1: Operating Cash Cost = (a) $A/lb Other A$m (a) + Royalty = (b) $A/lb Total Curr. Liabilities A$m C2: (a) + depreciation & amortisation = (c) $A/lb Long Term Borrowings A$m (a) + actual cash for development = (d) $A/lb Other A$m C3: (c) + Royalty $A/lb Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m (d) + Royalty $A/lb Total Liabilities A$m Net Assets A$m Price Assumptions Unit Jun 14 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Net Debt A$m AUDUSD A$/US$ Copper US$/lb Cashflow Unit 30 Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec 17 Gold US$/oz Operating Cashflow A$m Income Tax Paid A$m Hedging Jun 14 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Interest & Other A$m Hedges maturing? No No No No No Operating Activities A$m Sensitivity Analysis Property, Plant & Equip. A$m Valuation FY17 NPAT Exploration and Devel. A$m Base Case Other A$m Spot Prices 0.09 (-27.6%) 8.5 (-50.0%) Investment Activities A$m Spot USD/AUD 0.79, Copper $2.75/lb, Gold $1,202/oz AUDUSD +/--10% 0.10 / 0.15 (-18.7% / 21.7%) 11.8 / 23.5 (-31.0% / 37.9%) Borrowings A$m Copper +/--10% 0.17 / 0.07 (38.2% / -43.6%) 25.4 / 8.7 (48.9% / -48.9%) Equity or "tbc capital" A$m Production +/--10% 0.13 / 0.13 (0.0% / 0.0%) 17.1 / 17.1 (0.0% / 0.0%) Dividends Paid A$m Operating Costs +/--10% 0.09 / 0.15 (-25.6% / 23.7%) 13.6 / 20.5 (-20.4% / 20.4%) Financing Activities A$m Unpaid Capital Net Cashflow A$m Year Expires No. (m) $m Avg price % ord 31-Dec % Shares Unit 30 Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec % Ordinary Shares - End m Dec % Ordinary Shares - Weighted m Dec % Diluted Shares - Weighted m Dec % TOTAL % Ratio Analysis Unit 30 Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec 17 Cashflow Per Share A$ cps Share Price Valuation (NAV) Risked Est. A$m Est. A$/share Cashflow Multiple x % Pedra Branca (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 14%) Earnings Per Share A$ cps % Antas North (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%) Price to Earnings Ratio x Other Exploration Dividends Per Share AUD Forwards Dividend Yield % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Corporate Overheads Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity % -69% -36% -3% -39% 12% Net Cash (Debt) Interest Cover X na Tax (NPV future liability) Return on Equity % na na na 20% 19% Options & Other Equity Hedging Analyst: Scott Williamson Total "tbc capital" could be equity or debt. Our valuation is risk-adjusted for how this may be obtained. Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research Last Updated: 28/04/2015 Page 2 of 6

3 VALUATION Our sum of parts valuation for Antas and Pedra Branca assumes Antas moves in to production in Q1 CY16 and Pedra Branca in Q1 CY18. We model a 10 year minelife at Antas and 12 years at Pedra Branca but see potential upside at both projects. We model a nominal $50m ($0.01/share) for exploration upside. We believe AVB is well positioned for brownfield exploration success at both projects and within the regional exploration projects. We may revisit the exploration value if further exploration success is seen from the current regional exploration program. Fig. 1: Antas and Pedra Branca model assumptions Hartleys sum of parts valuation for AVB is A$0.13/share Source: Hartleys Estimates Antas (Stage 1) Project Pedra Branca (Stage 2) Project Capex - Total ($m) Life of mine Strip Ratio (x) 7.5x UG Life of mine average head grade 2.7% Cu, 0.5g/t Au 2.2% Cu, 0.5g/t Au Life of mine mill feed (mt pa) 0.45mt pa 1.5mt pa LOM Cu combined recovery & payability 81% 81% Total Copper eq Sold 0.11Mt 0.30Mt Total Copper eq Sold pa 11kt pa 25kt pa Current Assumed Mine Life (yrs) 10yrs 12yrs Commencement Date (qtr) Mar-16 Mar-18 LOM avg selling price (USD/copper lb) US$ 2.98 /lb US$ 2.94 /lb LOM avg C1 cash costs (USD/Cu eq lb) US$ 1.52 /lb US$ 2.09 /lb LOM C2 cash costs (USD/Cu eq lb) US$ 1.76 /lb US$ 2.33 /lb LOM C3 cash costs (USD/Cu eq lb) US$ 2.01 /lb US$ 2.57 /lb Life of mine annual net cash flow (US$m pa) US$ 27m pa US$ 43m pa Spot pre-tax NPV (USDm), unfunded US$ 140.3m US$ 120.0m For the Antas project we assume eight years of open pit mining with an average LOM strip ratio of 7.5:1. In years nine and ten we assume underground mining at Antas North will combine with the low grade stockpiles to produce at a similar production as the preceding years. We model Pedra Branca to begin production in Q1 CY18 from an underground mine at ~1.5Mtpa. Our modelling for Pedra Branca is pre-scoping although based on a typical bulk tonnage underground mining scenario with a LOM head grade of ~2.2% Cu & 0.5g/t Au. We assume the Pedra Branca project produces for ~12 years which would see mining to a depth ~400m. Assuming the mineralisation extends at depth we see significant potential to extend the minelife at Pedra Branca beyond our modelled assumptions. Fig. 2: Hartleys Sum of Parts Valuation for AVB A$m A$/share 100% Pedra Branca (pre-tax 14%) % Antas North (pre-tax Other Exploration Forwards Corporate Overheads Net Cash (Debt) Tax (NPV future liability) Options & Other Equity Hedging Total Source: Hartleys Estimates Page 3 of 6

4 PRICE TARGET Our price target for AVB assumes both Antas (Stage 1) and Pedra Branca (Stage 2) move into production over the coming years. We believe Antas (Stage 1) is an excellent starter project though significant upside exists with Pedra Branca (Stage 2). Both projects combined will see AVB become a mid-tier copper producer with a relatively large, long life copper mining business. Our price target includes weighting for the base case at consensus and spot prices and a weighting for the net cash backing. Hartleys 12 month price target is 12 cents per share Fig. 3: AVB Price Target Methodology Price Target Methodology Weighting Spot 12 mth out NPV base case NPV at spot commodity and fx prices 60% $0.13 $ % $0.09 $0.10 Net cash backing 10% $0.04 $0.04 Risk weighted composite $ Months Price Target $0.12 Shareprice - Last $ mth total return (% to 12mth target ) 51% Source: Hartleys Estimates Fig. 4: Assumption RISKS Key assumptions and risks for valuation 450ktpa Antas (Stage1) & 1.5Mtpa Pedra Branca (Stage 2) Risk of not realising assumption Risk to valuation if assumption is incorrect Comment Moderate Meaningful AVB is highly leveraged to the success of the Antas Copper project. We model a 450ktpa starter project followed by a 1.5Mtpa project at Pedra Branca. If either project varies from our modelled scenarios our valuation will be at risk to the downside Model parameters Moderate Meaningful We have made a number of large assumptions in our valuation of AVB, changes in these assumptions can change our valuation to both the upside and downside. Exploration potential Moderate Meaningful We assume exploration upside at both projects and throughout the region. We believe this assumption is reasonable given the geological prospectivity of the world class Carajas province. Funding Moderate High We model Pedra Branca (Stage 2) to be funded with conventional debt and equity. We believe this assumption is acceptable given the Antas starter project is fully funded. Conclusion At this early Stage we have made significant assumptions but believe these are achievable. Source: Hartleys Research Page 4 of 6

5 EV/EBITDA BANDS Fig. 5: Shareprice Using Hartleys base case commodity forecasts AVB Actual Hartleys Target 8x EV/EBITDA 6x EV/EBITDA 4x EV/EBITDA 2x EV/EBITDA 1x EV/EBITDA Source: Hartleys Estimates, IRESS Fig. 6: Shareprice.35 Using spot commodity prices AVB Actual 8x EV/EBITDA 6x EV/EBITDA 4x EV/EBITDA 2x EV/EBITDA 1x EV/EBITDA Source: Hartleys Estimates, IRESS Page 5 of 6

6 HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research Mike Millikan Resources Analyst Scott Williamson Resources Analyst Simon Andrew Energy Analyst Janine Bell Research Assistant Corporate Finance Grey Egerton- Director & Head of Warburton Corp Fin. Richard Simpson Director Paul Fryer Director Dale Bryan Director Ben Wale Associate Director Ben Crossing Associate Director Stephen Kite Associate Director Scott Weir Associate Director Registered Office Level 6, 141 St Georges TcePostal Address: PerthWA 6000 GPO Box 2777 Australia Perth WA 6001 PH: FX: info@hartleys.com.au Note: personal addresses of company employees are structured in the following manner:firstname_lastname@hartleys.com.au Hartleys Recommendation Categories Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce / Take profits Sell No Rating Speculative Buy Share price appreciation anticipated. Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is not as attractive as a Buy. Alternatively, for the share price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a price level at which it may become a Buy. Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly balanced. It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of some price weakness over that period. Significant price depreciation anticipated. No recommendation. Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that, on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to significant share price reduction. Consequently, the investment is considered high risk. Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan Justin Stewart Simon van den Berg Chris Chong Digby Gilmour Veronika Tkacova Wealth Management Nicola Bond Bradley Booth Adrian Brant Nathan Bray Sven Burrell Simon Casey Tony Chien Tim Cottee David Cross Nicholas Draper John Featherby Ben Fleay James Gatti John Goodlad Andrew Gribble David Hainsworth Neil Inglis Murray Jacob Gavin Lehmann Shane Lehmann Steven Loxley Andrew Macnaughtan Scott Metcalf David Michael Jamie Moullin Chris Munro Michael Munro Ian Parker Charlie Ransom (CEO) Brenton Reynolds Conlie Salvemini David Smyth Greg Soudure Sonya Soudure Dirk Vanderstruyf Samuel Williams Jayme Walsh Disclaimer/Disclosure The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN ( Hartleys ), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice mentioned in publications to clients. This report was prepared solely by Hartleys Limited. ASX did not prepare any part of the report and has not contributed in any way to its content. The role of ASX in relation to the preparation of the research reports is limited to funding their preparation, by Hartleys Limited, in accordance with the ASX Equity Research Scheme. ASX does not provide financial product advice. The views expressed in this research report may not necessarily reflect the views of ASX. To the maximum extent permitted by law, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made and no responsibility or liability is accepted by ASX as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the research reports. Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued. Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. Page 6 of 6