Weekly Market Report. Issue: Week 42 Tuesday 21 st October Market insight

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Report Issue: Week 42 Tuesday 21 st October 2014 By Theodore Ntalakos SnP/ Newbuildings Broker ECO designs - revisited Market insight The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since Is this development coming as a verification to the shipowners that have been dismissive of the benefits of the new designs? Moreover, are we experiencing the two tier market that was discussed a few years ago? On the sale & purchase front, the answer is clearly a yes... and a no... Although there is nothing new about the preference towards Japanese vessels from both charterers and buyers as they were always a different tier from Chinese, there is a substantial price gap of about twenty percent between the modern Chinese vessels and the ones built based on new designs with electronic engines, optimized hulls, energy efficiency devices etc. Furthermore, good quality new Chinese ships maintain their values not far from their Japanese piers. We recently compared the consumption of two kamsarmax vessels, one was built in Japan in 2007 and one in China in 2013 equipped with electronic engine and fuel efficient propeller (no optimized hull form). The fuel efficiency of the two vessels was very similar. So the new ECO vessels and all the new technologies used on them are already taking their market share, the charterers' preference and one can safely say that are here to stay. With the oil price plummeting however, it's also easy to make the opposite argument. I distinctly remember a discussion I had with a well-known Taiwanese shipowner during a forum; I was (I still am) defending the new ECO designs and was repeating to him The oil price will only go up! to which he replied with his experience from the crises of the previous decades saying I fully agree with you (and all the energy reports on the planet for that matter)... but what if it doesn t? Cheaper bunkers clearly favor the owners that bought discounted Chinese ships that few people would consider, mainly because of their higher fuel consumption. The desired rate of return on an investment can come either from the higher earnings of a highly efficient ECO vessel, but also from the lower initial investment on a less fuel efficient vessel. Fact is that the fuel efficiency benefit disappears as bunker prices drop. It also seems that this trend will probably continue at least in the short term as according to data from the International Energy Agency, the forecast of global oil demand for 2014 has been revised at lower levels since last month on reduced expectations of economic growth and the weak recent trend. Annual demand growth is now projected to drop in Q1 & Q and rise again in Q3 of 2015, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. On the other hand, while new sources of oil supply have driven the oil price to its current lows, not seen for almost half a decade, demand for oil has actually been on the rise and as more oil is being produced and consumed now than in 2011 it will be interesting to see how the oil price - and the bunker prices - will develop in the future. The truth is that irrespective of bunker prices, a more efficient vessel will always be more competitive and there is no doubt that there are other considerations when evaluating a new shipping investment, such as EEDI and emissions' control imposed by the regulatory bodies that only new ships can address. And although complying with these regulations may not have a positive effect in the pockets of shipowners like the reduced fuel consumption does, for a forward looking owner the new designs and the new technologies should be the main part of their strategy. Emission control is also here to stay and the industry must adapt to the new requirements. Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ ) With the exception of Panamaxes, the rest of the Dry Bulk market was still struggling for the bigger part of last week, while towards Friday things improved as Capesize rates finally started moving up. The BDI closed today (21/10/2014) at 1,090 points, up by 117 points compared to Monday s levels (20/10/2014) and an increase of 142 points compared to previous Tuesday s closing (14/10/2014). In the crude carriers market rates benefitted further from softening bunker prices, while sentiment is very positive for the upcoming winter season. The BDTI Monday (20/10/2014) was at 702 points, an increase of 19 points and the BCTI at 600, an increase of 26 points compared to previous Monday s (13/10/2014)levels. Sale & Purchase (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Soft - ) Activity on the SnP side has slowed down further this past week, while the uncertainty regarding dry bulk freight rates has taken its toll on secondhand volumes. Buyers seem to have been scared off for now, creating without a doubt opportunities for good bargains for those who are willing to bet on a positive market reversal soon. On the tanker side, we had the sale of the OTTOMAN NOBILITY (152,622dwt-blt 05, S. Korea) which was picked up for a price of US$ 45.0m. On the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the REGINA OLDENDORFF (37,504dwt-blt 06, Japan), which went for a price of $ 16.7m. Newbuilding (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- ) Things on the newbuilding front were quieter compared to the week prior, with tanker orders slowing down, while those for dry bulkers remained of thin volume. The majority of orders reported most recently were of non conventional vessels, like offshore, or gas carriers, which still gather a good share of the investment interest out there. Prices have stalled across the board for now, while everyone s attention is mainly on the dry bulker side, where further discounts are currently expected from yards that will have to find new ways to sell the newbuilding story. The performance of the freight market will certainly be critical of how hard selling that story will be. It seems that even if freights improve soon, owners will not rush back to the yards like they did in 2013 but will rather wait to see solid market performance for a longer period before they do. In terms of recently reported deals, Itochu Corp has placed an order for 2 MR product tankers (35,000dwt) at Kitanihon, in Japan, with delivery set for Demolition (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- ) As last week progressed, breakers in the Indian sub-continent were drawn deeper into doubt regarding the fundamentals of the market. From one hand cheap Chinese scrap steel has been pushing prices down and on the other most buyers found themselves committed to excessive levels, following the aggressive demo buying of the past month. Although prices have overall remained stable, there is a sense that we might soon see discounts bigger than $15/ldt. The further weakening of the Indian Rupee has also added to this environment of insecurity, while at the same time activity has dropped considerably, with most of the sales that are now reported, involving deals agreed or concluded earlier on. The Diwali holidays are also expected to weigh down on activity as well, while at the same time breakers in Bangladesh and Pakistan appear to be also losing their mood for now, as sentiment is starting to soften across the demo market. Needless to add that prices in China remained soft, while further declines are also expected before the end of the year. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around $/ldt and dry units received about $/ldt.

2 WS points WS points Wet Market Dirty Clean Aframax Suezmax VLCC Vessel VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy size Routes Week 42 Week 41 $/day $/day $/day ±% $/day $/day WS points Spot Rates WS points 265k MEG-JAPAN 45 30, , % 24,765 21, k MEG-USG 23 11, , % 13,769 7, k WAF-USG 55 40, , % 35,565 26, k MED-MED 85 37, , % 27,024 17, k WAF-USAC 80 31, , % 21,140 13, k BSEA-MED 88 41, , % 27,024 17,714 80k MEG-EAST 90 20, , % 17,130 11,945 80k MED-MED , , % 24,410 13,622 80k UKC-UKC , , % 32,422 18,604 70k CARIBS-USG , , % 24,087 16,381 75k MEG-JAPAN , , % 14,198 12,011 55k MEG-JAPAN , , % 12,643 12,117 37K UKC-USAC , , % 7,403 11,048 30K MED-MED , , % 14,210 17,645 55K UKC-USG , , % 22,377 14,941 55K MED-USG , , % 19,868 12,642 50k CARIBS-USAC , , % 24,956 15,083 $/day TC Rates Week 42 Week 41 ±% Diff k 1yr TC 31,750 30, % ,000 20, k 3yr TC 34,250 34, % 0 29,414 23, k 1yr TC 24,750 24, % 0 21,417 16, k 3yr TC 26,250 26, % 0 23,426 18, k 1yr TC 20,250 19, % ,774 13, k 3yr TC 22,250 21, % ,402 15,248 75k 1yr TC 16,250 16, % 0 15,589 15,221 75k 3yr TC 16,750 16, % 0 16,420 15,729 52k 1yr TC 14,750 14, % ,804 14,591 52k 3yr TC 15,250 15, % 0 15,682 15,263 36k 1yr TC 13,250 13, % 0 14,173 13,298 36k 3yr TC 14,250 14, % 0 15,039 13,907 VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Tankers Vessel 5yrs old MR Indicative Period Charters - 18 mos - 'ASHNA' ,438dwt - - $ 27,000/day - Petroineos - 3 yrs - 'STENA ARCTICA' ,099dwt - - $ 22,000/day - SHELL TD3 TD5 TD8 TD4 TC2 TC4 TC6 TC1 DIRTY - WS RATES CLEAN - WS RATES Oct-14 Sep-14 ±% KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % Chartering The crude carriers market seems to be currently enjoying a pre-winter mini rally. With activity overall remaining stable and bunker prices taking a dive, freight rates firmed further this past week. The continuously softening price of oil has sided with owners, boosting TCE rates and being a solid sign of increasing global supply of crude. The next OPEC meeting in about a month s time will provide a better direction for the price of oil, which is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. VL rates closed on the green for yet another week, despite the fact that activity ex-meg was slower mid-week onwards, while the rate for the WAF/USG voyage is currently estimated at above $40,000/day. The Suezmax market moved sideways overall, with the exception of the rate for the WAF/USAC voyage that softened on the back of lower volumes of fresh business coming through. Overall stable European demand is still supporting rates for cross-med and Black Sea/Med voyages, while the segment will most probably enjoy a new round of firming rates as charterers start to move more aggressively into the November program. Rates for Aframaxes noted the biggest gains across the board, with cross- Med business firming further, while at the same time the Caribs Afra surged on the back of strong demand, with fixtures more than doubling compared to the week prior. Sale & Purchase In the Suezmax sector, we had the sale of the OTTOMAN NOBILI- TY (152,622dwt-blt 05, S. Korea) which was picked up for a price of US$ 45.0m. In the Product Chemical tankers sector we had the sale of the FAIRCHEM COLT (19,953dwt-blt 05, Japan), which was sold to U.S. based Principal Maritime for a price of US$ 21.0m. Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 2

3 $/day Index Dry Market Baltic Indices Week 42 Week 41 17/10/ /10/2014 Point $/day Diff ±% Index $/day Index $/day Index Index BDI ,090 1,205 BCI 1,362 $9,516 1,544 $10, % 1,909 2,106 BPI 966 $7, $6, % 935 1,186 BSI 923 $9, $10, % BHSI 501 $7, $7, % Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Period $/day Week Week ±% Diff K 6mnt TC 14,250 14, % ,513 17, K 1yr TC 14,250 14, % ,635 15, K 3yr TC 14,000 14, % ,751 16,599 76K 6mnt TC 10,750 10, % 0 12,757 12,224 76K 1yr TC 10,750 10, % 0 12,680 10,300 76K 3yr TC 12,625 12, % 0 13,546 10,317 55K 6mnt TC 11,000 11, % ,337 11,565 55K 1yr TC 10,500 10, % ,974 10,234 55K 3yr TC 10,250 10, % ,980 10,482 30K 6mnt TC 8,500 8, % 0 9,402 8,244 30K 1yr TC 8,500 8, % ,500 8,309 30K 3yr TC 8,750 9, % ,801 8,926 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Indicative Period Charters - 3 to 7 mos - 'CHRIS GR' ,715dwt - Gibraltar spot - $ 14,500/day - Clipper - 2 to 4 mos - 'Ranger' ,172dwt - Dalian 19/20 Oct - $ 12,500/day - ABT Baltic Indices BCI BPI BSI BHSI BDI Average T/C Rates AVR 4TC BCI AVR 4TC BPI AVR 5TC BSI AVR 6TC BHSI Chartering The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of firmer performance of the Capesize market. As we mentioned in our last week s report, a correction was long overdue and it seems that we are about to experience one, as this week has also kicked off in a very positive tone as well. The duration of such reversal is without a doubt key here. Our industry has been trained to become more optimistic with even a couple of weeks of good freight performance but it is our feeling that this time round we will need to see more of that before we pop open the champers. The Capesize market remained under pressure for yet another week, while rates for the segment once more noted the biggest declines across the board. The Atlantic Cape showed no signs of improvement and period numbers took another hit. As things started to improve somewhat in the Pacific towards the end of the week, sentiment improved marginally across the market. Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Bulk Carriers Vessel 5 yrs old Oct-14 Sep-14 ±% k % K % k % K % Sale & Purchase In the Handysize sector, we had the sale of the REGINA OLDEN- DORFF (37,504dwt-blt 06, Japan), which went for a price of $ 16.7m. Rates for Panamaxes firmed last week, outperforming by a lot the rest of the market. Continent business together with a much improved Pacific resulted in unexpected gains for the segment, which saw its average T/C finally climbing back up above $7,500/day and giving a much needed breather to owners. Supras and Handies were also down this past week, with a further drop in fresh inquiries in the Pacific. Things in the Atlantic weren t any better either, while too many ballasters in the USG region meant no stellar performance of rates there either. Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 3

4 Secondhand Sales Tankers Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Hull Price Buyers Comments SUEZ OTTOMAN NOBILITY 152, HYUNDAI HEAVY INDS - U, S. Korea MAN-B&W DH $ 45.0m undisclosed AFRA NORTHERN PEARL 105, SUMITOMO HI YOKOSUKA, Japan Sulzer Oct-14 DH $ 12.0m S. Korean (Sinokor) MR BRIGHT PACIFIC 48, IWAGI, Japan MAN-B&W Dec-14 DH $ 13.5m Greek MR HIGH NEFELI 46, STX SHIPBUILDING - JIN, S. Korea MAN-B&W Mar-18 DH $ 15.8m Greek PROD/ CHEM FAIRCHEM COLT 19, USUKI SHIPYARD, Japan SAMHO PROD/ CHEM FRANZ SCHULTE 12, SHIPBUILDING - T, S. Korea SMALL EQUINOX 9, SLOB SCHEEPSWERF PAPEN, Netherlands MAN-B&W Feb-15 DH $ 21.0m US based (Principal Maritime) MAN-B&W Sep-16 DH high $10.0m S. Korean MaK DH $ 4.0m undisclosed StSt tanks SMALL ENERGIZER 8, MALTA SB, Malta Normo Dec-15 DH $ 4.0m Russian SMALL CANSU D 5, ISTANBUL SHIPYARD, Turkey MaK Jun-15 DH $ 6.5m Turkish Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments HANDY REGINA OLDENDORFF 37, SAIKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, Japan Bulk Carriers Mitsubishi Mar-16 4 X 36t CRANES $ 16.7m undisclosed MPP/General Cargo Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments NAIKAI INNOSHIMA , NAIKAI ZOSEN - INNOSHI, MAN-B&W 4 X 30t CRANES $ 26.0m undisclosed Size Name Teu Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments HYUNDAI MIPO SUB AS CATALANIA 2, DOCKYARD, S. MAN-B&W undisclosed Greek PMAX Korea Singaporean HEGEMANN FEEDER CAPE FALSTER 1, BERNE, Germany MAN-B&W $ 4.0m (Continental Investment) FEEDER CAPE SANTIAGO 1, GDANSKA STOCZNIA GRUPA, Poland Containers B&W Oct-16 2 X 43t CRANES $ 3.7m Chinese Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 4

5 million $ Newbuilding Market Bulkers Tankers million $ Gas Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$) Vessel Week Week ±% Capesize 180k % Kamsarmax 82k % Panamax 77k % Ultramax 63k % Handysize 38k % VLCC 300k % Suezmax 160k % Aframax 115k % LR1 75k % MR 50k % LNG 160k cbm % LGC LPG 80k cbm % MGC LPG 55k cbm % SGC LPG 25k cbm % Things on the newbuilding front were quieter compared to the week prior, with tanker orders slowing down, while those for dry bulkers remained of thin volume. The majority of orders reported most recently were of non conventional vessels, like offshore, or gas carriers, which still gather a good share of the investment interest out there. Prices have stalled across the board for now, while everyone s attention is mainly on the dry bulker side, where further discounts are currently expected from yards that will have to find new ways to sell the newbuilding story. The performance of the freight market will certainly be critical of how hard selling that story will be. It seems that even if freights improve soon, owners will not rush back to the yards like they did in 2013 but will rather wait to see solid market performance for a longer period before they do. In terms of recently rumored deals, Itochu Corp has placed an order for 2 MR product tankers (35,000dwt) at Kitanihon, in Japan, with delivery set for Tankers Newbuilding Prices (m$) Bulk Carriers Newbuilding Prices (m$) 180 VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR 110 Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Newbuilding Orders Units Type Size Yard Delivery Buyer Price Comments 2 Tanker 35,000 dwt Kitanihon, Japan 2017 Japanese (Itochu Corp.) undisclosed product tankers 3 Bulker 16,500 dwt Honda Zosen, Japan Taiwanese (Franbo Lines) $ 20.0m 6+2 Container 1,700 teu Zhejiang Ouhua, China HK based (Mandarin Shipping) undisclosed 3 Gas 174,000 cbm Samsung, S. Korea 2018 undisclosed $ 206.5m eco vessels 10 Offshore 5,400 dwt Kleven Verft, Norway Maersk Supply undisclosed AHTS 4 Offshore 2,300 dwt Wuchang S. B COSL undisclosed AHTS Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 5

6 $/ldt $/ldt Demolition Market Wet Dry Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt) Markets Week Week ±% Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China % Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China % As last week progressed, breakers in the Indian sub-continent were drawn deeper into doubt regarding the fundamentals of the market. From one hand cheap Chinese scrap steel has been pushing prices down and on the other most buyers found themselves committed to excessive levels, following the aggressive demo buying of the past month. Although prices have overall remained stable, there is a sense that we might soon see discounts bigger than $15/ldt. The further weakening of the Indian Rupee has also added to this environment of insecurity, while at the same time activity has dropped considerably, with most of the sales that are now reported, involving deals agreed or concluded earlier on. The Diwali holidays are also expected to weigh down on activity as well, while at the same time breakers in Bangladesh and Pakistan appear to be also losing their mood for now, as sentiment is starting to soften across the demo market. Needless to add that prices in China remained soft, while further declines are also expected before the end of the year. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around $/ldt and dry units received about $/ldt. The highest price amongst recently reported deals, was that paid by Pakistani breakers for the VLCC Tanker NEW PROGRESS (297,237dwt-38,572ldt-blt 94), which received a firm price of $ 514/ldt. Wet Demolition Prices Dry Demolition Prices 550 Bangladesh India Pakistan China 550 Bangladesh India Pakistan China Demolition Sales Name Size Ldt Built Yard Type $/ldt Breakers Comments NEW PROGRESS 297,237 38, ASTON 94,225 16, DISCOVERY 2,859 12, PACIFIC SUCCESS 38,412 8, NKK CORP - TSU, Japan FINCANTIERI ANCONA, Italy RHEINSTAHL NORDSEEWERK, Germany HYUNDAI HEAVY INDS - U, S. Korea TANKER $ 514/Ldt Pakistani TANKER $ 512/Ldt Pakistani PAX $ 406/Ldt undisclosed as-is Falmouth BULKER $ 470/Ldt undisclosed as-is Singapore AMIRA LAYAN 37,554 8, IHI - AIOI, Japan BULKER $ 475/Ldt Pakistani Intermodal Research 21/10/2014 6

7 Commodities & Ship Finance Currencies Stock Exchange Data Market Data 17-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-14 W-O-W Change % 10year US Bond % S&P 500 1, , , , , % Nasdaq 4, , , , , % Dow Jones 16, , , , , % FTSE 100 6, , , , , % FTSE All-Share UK 3, , , , , % CAC40 4, , , , , % Xetra Dax 8, , , , , % Nikkei 14, , , , , % Hang Seng 23, , , , , % DJ US Maritime % $ / % $ / % / $ % $ / NoK % Yuan / $ % Won / $ 1, , , , , % $ INDEX % 100 oil 95 MDO 380cst Basic Commodities Weekly Summary Oil WTI $ Oil Brent $ Gold $ 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,220 gold 1,210 1,200 1,190 Bunker Prices 17-Oct Oct-14 W-O-W Change % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Company Maritime Stock Data Stock Exchange Curr. 17-Oct Oct-14 W-O-W Change % AEGEAN MARINE PETROL NTWK NYSE USD % BALTIC TRADING NYSE USD % BOX SHIPS INC NYSE USD % CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS LP NASDAQ USD % COSTAMARE INC NYSE USD % DANAOS CORPORATION NYSE USD % DIANA SHIPPING NYSE USD % DRYSHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % EAGLE BULK SHIPPING NASDAQ USD % EUROSEAS LTD. NASDAQ USD % FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD % GLOBUS MARITIME LIMITED NASDAQ USD % GOLDENPORT HOLDINGS INC LONDON GBX % HELLENIC CARRIERS LIMITED LONDON GBX % NAVIOS MARITIME ACQUISITIONS NYSE USD % NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS NYSE USD % NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS LP NYSE USD % PARAGON SHIPPING INC. NYSE USD % SAFE BULKERS INC NYSE USD % SEANERGY MARITIME HOLDINGS CORP NASDAQ USD % STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP NASDAQ USD % STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD % TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION NYSE USD % TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % Finance News Rodgers set on Wall Street Paddy Rodgers has confirmed tanker giant Euronav retains an appetite for a stock listing in the US when global market conditions become more favourable. Euronav delayed the planned New York initial public offering (IPO) on Wednesday amid volatility in the stock markets that has seen shipping shares suffer across the board in recent weeks. Fundamentally, we want a New York listing, Rodgers, the owner's chief executive, told TradeWinds today. We are not saying we are not listing, we are just saying we are not listing right now. Rodgers notes that the red arrows on the global exchanges are in contrast with the green seen in the tanker market, if investors logged onto the Tankers International App. The main thing is that we had a difficult couple of weeks in the equity and bond markets. It was a very difficult couple of weeks (for the capital markets) with more volatility than we have seen in a few years, he said. It s in contrast to what we see on the shipping side for a number of macroeconomic reasons. Rodgers explains it would have been difficult for would-be Euronav investors to get into a buying mindset at a time when everybody in the capital markets is selling. He is unwilling to say when Euronav will take its fleet of more than 50 tankers to Wall Street, but adds the official documents already in place will be kept updated so the company can move when the time is right. It s an exciting project and one we just have to get all out ducks in a row, Rodgers said. As TradeWinds has reported analysts believe the delay to Euronav s listing is no drama given the turbulence in the stock markets of late (Trade Winds) The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. Compiled by Intermodal Research & Valuations Department research@intermodal.gr Analysts: Mr. George Lazaridis g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr Ms. Eva Tzima e.tzima@intermodal.gr

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