Tanker Market Outlook
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1 Tanker Market Outlook Market Update Autumn 2009 Dec 08., Suezmax Bonny - USAC Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q3 Base Case Suezmax - TD5 History Imarex Robert Stenvik, Senior Partner, 4Q 2009
2 Product dwt Cont - USAC (TC2) Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q3 Base Case Product - TC2 History Imarex 4Q 2009
3 The ViaMar Method: An Interactive Market and Risk Evaluation Process Retainer Retainer service service We We offer offer to to commit commit ourselves ourselves to to your your company company in in a a close close relationship relationship to to present present our our evaluation, evaluation, analysis analysis and and opinions opinions on on all all determinants determinants of of the thefuture market market balance balance and and the the future future of of shipping shipping markets. markets. Our Our philosophy philosophy is is that that modern modern shipping shipping companies companies are are dependant dependant upon upon a a continuous continuous analysis analysis and and dialog dialogin in order order to to assess assess the the current current and and future future market market situation situation and and take take the the right right decision decision at at the the right right time. time. Therefore Therefore our our service service consists consists of of four four quarterly quarterly presentations, presentations, continuous continuous market market monitoring monitoring and and direct direct access accessin in between between our our meetings. meetings. ViaMar s Base Case On-site Presentation & Discussion Client Alternative Scenario Choices Risk Evaluation Decision 4Q 2009
4 What We Can Offer Based on on the the partners extensive shipping experience as as managers, analysts and and brokers, we we are are in in a unique position to to offer offer in-depth market analysis and and strategic advice for: for: The The bulk bulk carrier and and tanker markets, including product carriers The The LPG LPG and and petrochemical gas gascarrier market Container shipping markets Shipbuilding market and and secondhand prices Finally, we we can can offer: Investments and and divestment calculations Dynamic ship ship value models 4Q 2009
5 ViaMar Key Macro Economic Assumptions - Unchanged: The financial crisis seems be resolved - The gigantic measures by many governments have restored confidence in the financial markets - focus on monitoring to avoid setback. We are not heading towards a depression, and according to the Fed the recession in the US is over. - Financial and monetary stimulus will continue to support growth. - Key issue will be when to pull back stimulus. - Unprecedented global stimulus to find traction in 2H09. - A below normal and soft recovery 4Q 2009
6 China: Month-on-month loan growth cooling off as announced? Juli down 77% from June, 71% below 1st 6 month average Aug down 73% from June, 67% below 1st 6 month average China, Monetary Financial Institutions, Uses of Funds, Loans, CNY 2,00 c.o.p val 1 month 410,35754G China, Monetary Financial Institutions, Uses of Funds, Loans, CNY 38, T 1,75 1,50 CNY (thousand billions) 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00-0, c.o.p val 1 month Source: Reuters EcoWin 4Q 2009
7 China: Domestic Economy Responding to Massive Stimulus Efforts %-growth (annual) 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 GDP Growth - China Forecast from 4. quarter ,0 00,1 01,1 02,1 03,1 04,1 05,1 06,1 07,1 08,1 09,1 10,1 11,1 12,1 3.qtr.Base 4.qtr.Base Forecast period Economic activity continued to increase in the 3.qtr. with real GDP growing at 8.9% y-o-y (Q2; 7,9%). Aggressive economic stimulus package to boost economic activity by letting public spending and especially investments take over where exports and private investments failed. Industrial Production rose 16,1% in October up from 13,9% the previous month - up substantially compared to the beginning of this year with just below 10% growth in production. Nominal Retail sales in October rose a robust 16.2% y-o-y, even faster growth than previous months. Fix Asset Investment posted a solid gain of 33,1% during the first 10 months. After exports reached bottom in February, it has increased 70%, supported by strong stimulus abroad. However, exports are still down by 13,8% y-o-y. During the same period imports are up with 69%, indicating strong domestic demand : Supported by aggressive stimulus the economy will continue it s strong rebound. We expect growth to peak in early 2010, and then remain around 10-11% annual growth throughout the forecasting period. Domestic Demand will lead a strong economic recovery. but a solid rebound and sustainable recovery to high growth is dependent on the global economy to initiate a recovery in China s exports. 4Q 2009
8 Business Environment Overview EU China ,8 % 10,4 % 10,5 % 10,7 % 9,1 % 8,4 % United States ,6 % 1,1 % 1,5 % 2,5 % 2,4 % 2,2 % 2,4 % 2,8 % 0,1 % -1,7 %-2,1 % Japan -1,8 % Other Asia 2,1 % -1,1 % 1,7 % 1,3 % 1,7 % ,5 % 6,7 % 4,9 % 4,9 % 4,9 % 3,8 % 0,6 % Others; ; 22 % EU27; ; 30 % Other Asia; 5.47 ; 9 % People's Republic of China; 4.40 ; 7 % Japan; 4.92 ; 8 % United States; ; 24 % 4Q 2009
9 North America Oil Import Demand US Petroleum Consumption by Sector In '000 Bpd jan.73 jan.76 jan.79 jan.82 jan.85 jan.88 jan.91 jan.94 jan.97 jan.00 jan.03 jan.06 Residential Commerical Industiral Transportation Electricity 4Q 2009
10 ,2 % -0,3 % 0,0 % -5,9 % -4,5 % 3,5 % 1,6 % 1,4 % 26,0 25,0 24,0 23,0 North America Oil Consumption Mill Bpd 22,0 21,0 20,0 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
11 ,1 % 1,0 % 2,7 % -0,6 % 3,6 % 1,8 % 0,3 % 0,3 % 12,0 North America Oil Production 11,5 11,0 Mill Bpd 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
12 Million Barrels N. Am. Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Stock Changes in North America Total Stocks (mbd) q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - North America Total Stocks (mbd) -2,0 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Million Barrels N. Am. Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Industry Stocks in North America Total Stocks (mbd) 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1
13 ,1 % -4,2 % -4,5 % -4,4 % -9,8 % 2,9 % 2,9 % 2,4 % 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 North America Oil Import Mill Bpd 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
14 OECD Europe energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Mill Ton Oil Equivalent Source: BP
15 ,0 % 0,2 % -2,4 % 0,4 % -4,8 % 3,0 % 1,8 % 2,1 % 18,0 OECD Europe Oil Consumption 17,0 16,0 Mill Bpd 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
16 ,4 % -8,0 % -4,3 % -4,0 % -5,8 % -8,0 % -9,4 % -8,5 % 8,0 OECD Europe Oil Production 7,0 6,0 Mill Bpd 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
17 Stock Changes in OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) Million Barrels OECD Eur Avg. Last 5yrs Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 1,0 0,5 0,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) -0,5 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Million Barrels OECD Eur Avg. Last 5yrs Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Industry Stocks in OECD Europe Total Stocks (mbd) q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1
18 ,0 % -3,0 % -0,6 % 0,2 % -2,9 % 5,5 % 4,3 % 4,0 % 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 OECD Europe Oil Import Mill Bpd 12,0 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
19 Japan energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Mill Ton Oil Equivalent Source: BP
20 ,0 % -3,6 % -3,1 % -4,4 % -10,1 % -0,6 % -6,6 % -0,9 % 7,0 Japan Oil Consumption 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
21 Million Barrels Japan Last 5 years Recent Data Quarterly Stock Levels Former Base Stock Changes in Japan Total Stocks (mbd) q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 Mbpd 1,0 0,5 0,0 Recent IEA Former Base Quarterly stock levels Quarterly Stock Changes - Japan Total Stocks (mbd) -0,5 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1
22 ,4 % -1,2 % -1,9 % 0,6 % -12,5 % 1,0 % -6,4 % -1,2 % 7,0 Japan Oil Import 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
23 China energy consumption Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Coal (Right Axis) Mill Ton Oil Equivalent Source: BP Mill Ton Oil Equivalent
24 ,3 % 7,5 % 5,1 % 4,3 % 4,8 % 9,3 % 7,6 % 6,4 % 12,0 China Oil Consumption 10,0 8,0 Mill Bpd 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
25 ,6 % 2,1 % 1,4 % 2,0 % 0,7 % 6,0 % 0,0 % -0,8 % 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 China Oil Production Mill Bpd 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
26 ,3 % 16,6 % 1,3 % 14,7 % 0,1 % 12,2 % 13,7 % 11,5 % 7,0 China Oil Import 6,0 5,0 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
27 South Korea energy consumption Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Mill Ton Oil Equivalent Source: BP
28 ,9 % 2,2 % 3,8 % 1,2 % 1,9 % 6,8 % 3,7 % 3,7 % 18,0 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Consumption 16,0 14,0 12,0 Mill Bpd 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
29 ,7 % -1,2 % 2,6 % 1,8 % -1,1 % 3,4 % 2,0 % -1,5 % 4,8 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Production 4,6 4,4 4,2 Mill Bpd 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
30 ,6 % 1,7 % -2,9 % -0,6 % 3,4 % 8,3 % 4,5 % 5,7 % 14,0 Other Asia & Ocean Oil Import 12,0 10,0 Mill Bpd 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
31 ,7 % 3,3 % 4,0 % 0,0 % 2,9 % 2,8 % 1,3 % 1,0 % 16,0 FSU & East Europe Oil Production 14,0 12,0 Mill Bpd 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
32 ,9 % -0,1 % 2,1 % 3,0 % -8,2 % 4,2 % 1,3 % 2,8 % 34,0 OPEC Oil Production 32,0 30,0 Mill Bpd 28,0 26,0 24,0 22,0 20,0 98q1 99q1 00q1 01q1 02q1 03q1 04q1 05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 3.qtr. Base Case 4.qtr. Base Case
33 Base Case New Orders New Orders - 4. qtr. Base Case 30,0 25,0 million dwt 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0-2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009
34 Net Deliveries including corrections - 4. qtr. 2009: Slippage; respectively 6.4m.dwt and 4.6m.dwt in 2009 and Cancelled respectively 4.4m.dwt, 16m.dwt and 23 m.dwt from Consequently, respectively 24% (24%), 39% (39%) and 45% (30%) of the current orderbook will not be delivered. 20,0 Delivery of Forecasted Orders 4. Qtr. Base Case 16,0 million dwt 12,0 8,0 4,0 - -4,0-8,0 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Total Slippage Cancelled HIDDEN Existing Orderbook New Order Net Deliveries 4Q 2009
35 Base Case Deliveries 16,0 Deliveries - 4. Qtr. Base Case 14,0 12,0 million dwt 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009
36 Base Case Scrapping Scrapping (incl. Conversions) - 4. Qtr. Base 12,0 10,0 million dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009
37 Base Case Net Fleet Growth Net Fleet Growth - 4. Qtr. Base Case million dwt 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 - -2,0-4,0 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Net Additions Scrapping Deliveries 4Q 2009
38 ,8 % 6,6 % 5,9 % 4,3 % 7,5 % 2,8 % 0,2 % 5,8 % 525,0 Total Fleet Qtr. Base Case 475,0 million dwt 425,0 375,0 325,0 275,0 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Former Current History 4Q 2009
39 Combis in Tank 14,0 12,0 10,0 Mill Dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Former Current 4Q 2009
40 18,0 16,0 14,0 Tank Vessels in Storage 12,0 Mill Dwt 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 98Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Former Current 4Q 2009
41 Base Case Tonnage Balance Dwt ViaMar Tank Market Balance Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Utilization Total Supply Demand (dwt) 100 % 95 % 90 % 85 % 80 % 75 % 70 % 4Q 2009
42 Aframax Sidi Kerir - Trieste (TD11) Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case Aframax - TD11 History Imarex
43 Product dwt Cont - USAC (TC2) Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case Product - TC2 History Imarex
44 Suezmax Bonny - USAC Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case Suezmax - TD5 History Imarex
45 VLCC Ras Tanura - Chiba Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 2009Q4 Base Case VLCC - TD3 History Imarex
46 Alternative Scenario: Low Scrapping In this scenario, we have assumed that scrapping will fall short of the phase out fleet. Scrapping - Low Scrapping vs. 4. Qtr. Base 12,0 10,0 million dwt 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0-1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2009Q4 Base Low Scrapping History
47 VLCC Ras Tanura - Chiba Average Earnings Modern USD/day Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Low Scrapping 2009Q4 Base Case History
48 2009 Vessel Prices & Values
49 The Newbuilding and Secondhand Market-price Model Shipyard Capacity Steel Price SHIPYARD CGT SUPPLY BALANCE UTILIZATION NEWBUILDING PRICE SECONDHAND PRICES SHIPYARD CGT DEMAND MARKET ANALYSIS ORDERING ACTIVITY Tankers Others Dry Bulk EARNINGS Container Gas Tankers
50 There is Essentially One 1 Common Newbuilding Market 57,5 Newbuilding Prices - Tankers and Dry Bulk 52,5 NB Price (usd millions) 47,5 42,5 37,5 32,5 110 Newbuilding Prices - Tanker, Dry Bulk, LPG and Container 27, ,5 1990q1 1991q1 1992q1 1993q1 1994q1 1995q1 1996q1 1997q1 1998q1 1999q q1 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 NB Price (usd millions) 70 Aframax NBP Capesize NBP Product Tanker NBP VLGC cbm Capesize Aframax Panamax FCC 3500 TEU
51 Quarterly Ordering Activity - 3rd Qtr Base Case Container (est cgt) Dry Bulk (est cgt) Tankers (est cgt) CGT Millions q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
52 ViaMar In Depth Analysis Covers 80-90% of Ordering Activity (Containers, Dry Bulk, Tankers & Gas Carriers) 200 Global Orderbook Development 180 Million CGT Orderbook Q1 99Q1 00Q1 01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 Tanker Dry Bulk Container Gas Others
53 Global Shipyard Capacity Compensated Gross Tons (cgt) Shipyard Deliveries & Current Orderbooks vs Capacity Deliveries Korea Deliveries China Korea - Orderbook China - Orderbook Capacity China Capacity Korea
54 Utilization of Global Shipyard Capacity Capacity Development vs Major Shipping Sectors Demand Compensated Gross Tons (GCT) Capacity Europe Capacity Asia Total Bulk, Container & Gass Forecast
55 170.0 VLCC Newbuilding Price dwt (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) Usd Millions Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
56 Usd Millions VLCC Secondhand Price, 5 year old dwt Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
57 Usd Millions VLCC Secondhand Price, 10 year old dwt DH Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case DH dwt 1999 blt History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
58 Usd Millions Product Tanker Newbuilding Price dwt (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
59 Usd Millions Product Tanker Secondhand Price, 10 year old dwt Q2 Base Case Q3 Base Case History (Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys) 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 2005q1 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1
60 Conclusions on Investments 1Q 2008 Time to Buy Time to do nothing Time to Sell VLCC Product Tankers Aframax Tankers Capesize Bulk Handy & Panamax Bulk Carriers Container Ships
61 1Q2008 ViaMar Ship Value Conclusions. We assumed lower economic growth worldwide for the forecast period. We used the following headings for each of the major economic areas: US Economy; Closer to Recession but not necessary recession. US not decoupled. Europe: Soft Q4 data, but worse to come? Broad softening in Japan Recession in 1H 2008? China: External exposure still very high We forecasted a sharp decline in S/H ship values; Handy product carrier 10yr old was then $45m we said it would slide to $30m (mid 2009) and $20m (mid 2010) is now $26m (Oct) Handy bulk carrier 10 yr old was then $60m we said it would slide to low $30m (mid 2009) and low $10m (mid 2010) is now $20.5m (Oct.) 3500 TEU container vessel 10 yr old was then $50m we said it would slide to $40m (mid 2009)and low $20 sm (mid 2010) is now $19m cbm gas carrier 10 yr old was then $55m, we said it would slide to mid $40 s (mid 2010). is now $50m (?).
62 Conclusions on Investments 3Q 2009 Time to Buy Time to do nothing Time to Sell Handymax BC Panamax BC Capesize Bulk MR PC VLCC 3500 TEU Cont
63
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