CANADA I. BASIC "T3ICAT0RS

Transcription

1 Trade Development Summary September 1953 CANADA I. BASIC "T3ICAT0RS (a) Producton The rate of ncrease n ndustral producton s not losng any of ts momentum, and output durng the frst four months of the year has agan been 10 per cent hgher than n the correspondng perod a year ago. Ths means that the average rate of growth for the years 1946 to contnues. It s perhaps ndcatve for the future of the whole economy that mnng output durng the postwar perod has ncreased at the same rate as manufacturng producton. The greatest progress s beng made n durable goods, producton of whch, durng the same perod of years, has been expandng at a rate almost three tmes as fast as that of non-durable goods, followed by electrcty, yearly consumpton of whch, at 4,10Ckwh per head of populaton s now the hghest n the world after Norway. Although no recent data are avalable on the value of domestc producton of machnery, t appears that there has been, n the course of the last several years, an ncrease n the share of domestc producton'n the supply of non-farm machnery. VALUE INDICES FOR ( ) Shpments Exports Imports Farm Machnery Non-Farm Machnery Whle possble dvergences n the prces of home products, exports and mports, and changes n ther composton preclude any detaled concluson, t seems at least very probable that a larger proporton of producton, at least as regards non-farm machnery, has been retaned n the country. _.J!he-'±s~'one of many sgns that Canada s now beyond the early stages of economc development. It wll be seen below that the most mportant tens among mports are also durable and, especally, captal goods. MGT/10/54

2 - 2 - In spte of rapd ndustralzaton, Canada has also been able to expand her agrcultural producton, whch has rsen snce 1946 at an average rate of over 8 per cent per year; ths advance has been manlycarred by wheat, output of whch, n, was no less than two-thrds above the 1946 level. (b) Terms of Trade The prces of export goods underwent only a slght average declne durng and the frst quarter of 1953, whch s remarkable n vew of the unfavourable market poston n partcular offloodpulp and tmber, but also of wheat, znc and lead. However, the prces of newsprnt and copper mproved whle the pces of some other non-ferrous metals, such as nckel, are well mantaned. On the other hand, the prces of mport goods, manly manufactures, have declned somewhat more n the same perod. Hence, the terms of trade have mproved and, n fact, acheved ther most favourable level (at 114,1950 = 100) durng the thrd quarter of. There was a slght deteroraton (to 112) n the frst quarter of (c) Balance of Trade The balance of trade whch had, almost wthout nterrupton, shown a surplus (averagng #27 mllon per month) n, reversed ths tendency n all the frst fve months 'jf 1953 (but not n June) because exports were some 6 per cent below a year ago, whereas mports stood conaderably, about one-seventh, above the level of the precedng year. The resultng negatve balance of $ 197 mllon n the frst half yoar (compared wth a surplus of +$182 mllon n the same perod a yoar ago) reached ts monthly hgh(-$89 mllon) n Aprl of ths year. In vew of the contnued expanson of nternal producton, the growth n natonal ncome and nvestment, and the resultng ncreased capacty of the economy to absorb goods of all descrpton, the recent development of the trade balance dd not create any alarm especally snce the present expanson of the economy s manly carred by the basc ndustres, ncludng agrculture. TRADE BALANCES OF CANADA Unted States of Amerca Unted Kngdom Dther Sterlng area Western Europe and Dependences Central & South Amerca All other Fotal all countres h. J (Mllon $) 1 1 ' 1st half!2nd half ; Source: Statstcal Summary, Bank of Canada. 1 All values are gven n Canadan dollars ! : - 20! + 97 : st atr /-84

3 (d) Payments Poston In there was a surplus of $151 mllon on current account manly because of the favourable trade balance of nearly a half bllon dollars. In vew of the unfavourable trade balance durng the frst half of 1953 Canada ths year seems well on the way to ncur a defct on current account. There s also some concern over the composton of the surplus acheved last year; t conssted, manly, of a defct of over $850 mllon vs-a-vs the Unted States and a slghtly larger combned surplus of about $500 mllon wth both the sterlng ar^and the rest of the world. Ths stuaton s the man reason for Canada's nterest n the lberalsaton of trade. II. EXPORTS (a) Value and Volume From $ 2131 mllon durng the frst half of, the value of exports declned to 2024 mllon or by 6 per cent durng the same perod n In comparson wth last year, the decrease was partcularly notceable between February and Aprl, whle n May the value of exports was back at ts level of a year ago, and n June well above t. The reducton was due both to lower export prces and a lower volume of mportant export tems such as wheat and wood pulp; the quantty of newsprnt exported, on the other hand, (but not the value) has been above the levels of a year ago. (b) Drecton Durng the frst quarter of ths year the decrease n total exports has been accompaned by an ncrease n exports to the Unted States whch thereby ncreased ts share n total Canadan exports from 55 per cent to 63 per cent; throughout the Unted States share had been rather stable, between 53 per cent and 56 per cent, wth a tendency to rse. But, the recent ncrease, though welcome n vew of the heavly adverse current balance wth the Unted States, s consdered wth msgvngs oecause t s manly due to the falure of exports to other destnatons to ncrease. In fact, exports to the EPU area durng the frst quarter were over $ 100 mllon less than a year ago (of whch $ 48 mllon on account of the Sterlng Area, and? 5» mllon for contnental Western Europe). Exports to the Overseas Sterlng Area decreased somewhat less than those to the Unted Kngdom whose relatve share n total exports sank from 17 per cent to 14 per cent but the relatve declne was even greater,.e. 11 per cent to 7 per cent, n exportsto the other Western European countres and ther dependences, manly Belgum, France and Italy, and n spte of ncreased supples to Denmark, Germany and, especally, Norway. Apprecable reductons were also regstered n exports to Central and South Amerca n spte of consderable efforts to retan and develop those markets. Import restrctons and payments dffcultes have thus caused a temporary setback to the undoubted success prevously acheved to spread Canadan exports and to establsh a greater degree of ndependence from the Unted States market.

4 - 4 - EXPORTS OF CANADA (Mllon $) I 1st half 2nd half 1st qtr. Unted States of Amerca Unted Kngdom Other Sterlng Area We stern Europe and Dependences Central and South Amerca All other Total all countres 2, : 146 3,963 2, ,356 1, ,131 1, , ! 59 j 60 50! «914 Excludng gold. Source: Statstcal Summary - Bank of Canada. (c) Composton The two largest sngle export tems are wheat and newsprnt, accountng for 17 and 13 per cent respectvely of total exports xn. Comparng the frst four months of 1953 and, the declne n the value of wheat and wheatflour exports has been somewhat larger, and for woodpulp much larger, than for total exports, whereas there was no change n the value of exports of newsprnt and of planks and boards. There was also a declne n exports of another mportant tem,.e. fsh, but the severest fall took place n exports of both farm and non-farm machnery and motor vehcles; the value of the exports of these manufactures dropped from $ 122 mllon durng the frst four months of to $ 77 mllon n the same perod of ths year. Exports of some non-ferrous metals (alumnum, copper, nckel) and asbestos contnued to mprove; those of znc, however, fell sharply.

5 - 5 - EXPORTS 1 OF SELECTED COMMODITIES (Mllon #) ! j Foodstuffs of whch, wheat Tmber & Tmber Products of whch, newsprnt Non-Ferrous Metals Farm Machnery- Other Machnery & Vehcles Total Exports , ,281 1, , ,065 1, , ,452 Includng gold. Source: Statstcal Summary, Bank of Canada. III. IMPORTS (a) Value and Volume In the frst half of 1953 the value of mports surpassed the level of a year ago by $ 271 mllon or 14 per cent and was, n May, the hghest on record. Although mport prces have ncreased slghtly, the energetc development n the perod March-May, n both value and volume, s readly connected wth the nternal economc expanson especally n vew of the contnued ncrease n mports of captal goods. In the frst quarter, the volume of total mports was 18 per cent hgher than a year ago. (b) Orgn Although, comparng the frst quarter of and 1953, mports from some other countres also ncreased, there has been no sgn of change n the domnant poston of the Unted States as the chef suppler of Canada. The value of Unted States mports now stands at $ 763 mllon out of a total of # 998

6 - 6 mllon n the frst quarter, or 76 per cent of total mports. The Unted Kngdom has remaned the second most mportant suppler, rasng ts exports to Canada n the frst quarter from $ 68 mllon to # 95 mllon; t now accounts for 10 per cent of the country's mports nstead of 7 per cent. The development of the ncrease n the Unted Kngdom's share has been regular and contnuous throughout and the frst quarter of In comparson wth the foregong countres, the changes n. the amounts of mports suppled by others were slght, wth the excepton of a sharp fall n supples from dependences of the European countres (especally Brtsh), slght decreases n those from the other parts of the Overseas Sterlng Area and Central Amerca and also somewhat lower mports from Contnental Western Europe (less from Belgum, more from Holland, Swtzerland and Germany). IMPORTS OF CANADA (Mllon ) \ st half 2nd half st qtr. Unted States of Amerca Unted Kngdom Other Sterlng Area Western Europe and Dependences Central & South Amerca All other Total all countres 2, s 181 : ; 4,085 ; t 2, ,031 1, ,949 1, , Source: Statstcal Summary, Bank of Canada. (c) Composton In, the most mportant commodty groups were metal manufactures - ncludng machnery and fuel and foodstuffs. Among the metal manufactures, t s especally mports of engnes, locomotves and bolers, and machnery (except agrcultural but ncludng electrcal apparatus) whch have contnuously and regularly been ncreasng most n value; durng the frst two months of 1953 these mports were agan hgher than a year ago. Imports of agrcultural equpment, although smlar to those n and somewhat hgher n the frst two months of 1953 compared wth a year ago, dd not keep pace wth non-farm machnery. The same was true for chemcals. Imports of unmanufactured

7 - 7 ron and steel were generally hgher by value n than n 1951, and agan n the frst two months of 1953 compared wth a year ago, but mports of manufactured ron and steel (sheets, bars, structures, etc.) were lower. In textles, both mports of raw materals and fnshed products were consderably lower n, but somewhat hgher agan durng the frst two months of 1953, except for raw cotton. IMPORTS OF SK CTED COMMODITIES (Mllon $) 1950, 1951 Foodstuffs Raw cotton and wool! Chemcals Petroleum and products Iron & Steel Manufactures Farm mplements and machnery Other machnery and vehcles Total mports , , , ,031 Source: Statstcal Summary, Bank of Canada.

8 Basc Indcators Country; Ctaaoa Year Year Year Year J F M'A M J J A S G N D J F M A M 1948» 100 ndus tral Producton >f vdcn lûnng ! grcultural Producton "rade (volume) , 130 Exports Imparts Varas of Trade ; «Jalance of îrado alon 0 *301-52!! ' -110! +334! Î ! Î * Ï * -89* «3! Sources: OEEC/IMF/Bank of Canada * Partally estmated. CD I