New Jersey SREC Update. December 23, 2016

Transcription

1 New Jersey SREC Update December 23, 2016

2 CONTENTS New Jersey Solar Build Rates New Jersey Electricity Sales Supply and Demand Assumptions Supply and Demand Scenarios Historic Pricing Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the Materials ) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the Materials ) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributedto the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc. 2

3 NJ SOLAR BUILD RATES (MW) Total qualified capacity as of 11/30/16 = 1,937.6 MW % decrease % decrease Last 12 Months Avg. MW/Month Last 6 Months Avg. MW/Month Months Ending July Months Ending October 2016 Source: New Jersey Office of Clean Energy (NJ OCE) Full Installation Project List prepared by AEG, as of November 30, For the purpose of illustrating installation trend data we omit the most recent month from our analysis under the assumption that the given number will be materially revised in future reports. Hence, October 2016 is thefinal month of data used for trend analysis and forward projections. 3

4 NJ ELECTRICITY SALES (MWh) AND SRECs REQUIRED Recent years have declined or are flat; EY2015 = 76.1 mm MWh 85,000,000 83,000,000 81,000,000 79,000,000 77,000,000 75,000,000 Electricity Sales (MWh) EY10 EY11 EY12 EY13 EY14 EY15 SRECs Required (in 000s) Energy Year RPS Solar % 0% Growth 1.0% Growth Difference SACP % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ 293 Source: New Jersey Office of Clean Energy and SRECTrade Estimates. 4

5 CURRENT AND PROPOSED NEW JERSEY RPS: SENATE BILL #2276 Currently under review, Senate Bill 2276 proposes a second demand pull forward that would increase the SREC RPS requirement beginning in RY2018 Source: New Jersey Senate Bill 2276 and SRECTrade estimates. 5

6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS As of 12/23/16 in PJM GATS NJ13 6,961 SRECs available; NJ14 11,143 SRECs available; NJ15 23,482 SRECs available; NJ16 148,165 SRECs available; NJ17 989,862 available Installed capacity as of 11/30/16 1,937.6 MW Load growth remains flat through the forecast period Scenarios presented are derived from Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) average build rates per month 75% / 100% / 150% of current TTM build rates per month Assumptions based on information readily available as of this report. Generators reporting late to GATS or in process with NJ OCE are not considered Source: PJM GATS as of 12/23/2016, NJ CEP Solar Installation Report and SRECTrade Estimates. Note, some NJ2013 SRECs may not be eligible if from June/July

7 NJ SUPPLY / DEMAND SCENARIOS CURRENT RPS Oversupplied Energy Year Estimated % Oversupplied / (Undersupplied) Case MW/month 8.8% 16.3% 32.6% 56.1% 87.0% Case MW/month 9.5% 21.3% 45.7% 80.4% 125.8% Case MW/month 10.9% 31.3% 71.7% 129.0% 203.3% Source: SRECTrade Estimates 7

8 NJ SUPPLY / DEMAND SCENARIOS CURRENT RPS SREC Forecast vs. Estimated SRECs Req Case 1-75% of Last 12 Month Average MW Added Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 2,283,941 2,436,203 2,504,721 2,586,126 2,654,987 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 189, , , ,643 1,451,473 Less: Case 1 Estimated SRECs Produced 2,295,571 2,631,472 2,925,714 3,219,957 3,514,199 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (201,381) (396,650) (817,643) (1,451,473) (2,310,685) Case 2 - Last 12 Month Average MW Added Remains the Same Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 2,283,941 2,436,203 2,504,721 2,586,126 2,654,987 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 189, , ,477 1,143,805 2,080,051 Less: Case 3 Estimated SRECs Produced 2,311,144 2,737,726 3,130,049 3,522,372 3,914,695 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (216,954) (518,477) (1,143,805) (2,080,051) (3,339,759) Case 3-1.5x of Last 12 Month Average MW is Added Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 2,283,941 2,436,203 2,504,721 2,586,126 2,654,987 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 189, , ,131 1,796,129 3,337,207 Less: Case 4 Estimated SRECs Produced 2,342,290 2,950,234 3,538,719 4,127,204 4,715,688 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (248,100) (762,131) (1,796,129) (3,337,207) (5,397,908) Source: SRECTrade Estimates 8

9 NJ HISTORICAL PRICING Current NJ17 market: $ Source: SRECTradeMarket Insights 9