New Jersey SREC Update OCTOBER 2015

Transcription

1 New Jersey SREC Update OCTOBER 2015

2 CONTENTS New Jersey Solar Build Rates New Jersey Electricity Sales Supply and Demand Assumptions Supply and Demand Scenarios Historic Pricing Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the Materials ) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the Materials ) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc. 2

3 NJ SOLAR BUILD RATES (MW) Last six month average MW/month has decreased vs. LTM MW/month. Last 3 months build rates are up % increase % decrease Last 12 Months Avg. MW/Month Last 6 Months Avg. MW/Month Months Ending June Months Ending September 2015 Source: New Jersey Office of Clean Energy.

4 NJ ELECTRICITY SALES (MWh) AND SRECs REQUIRED Recent years have declined or are flat; EY2014 = 76.5 mm MWh Electricity Sales (MWh in millions) EY10 EY11 EY12 EY13 EY14 SRECs Required (in 000s) Year RPS 0% 1.0% Solar % Growth Growth Diff. SACP % 1, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ % 2, , $ 293 Source: New Jersey Office of Clean Energy and SRECTrade Estimates.

5 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS As of 10/7/15 in PJM GATS NJ13-53,575 SRECs Available NJ14 457,325 SRECs Available NJ15 1,531,259 SRECs Available / 37,042 SRECs Retired RPS NJ15 Retired Report 129,735 SRECs (estimate 92,693 from before NJ15) Installed capacity as of 9/30/15 1,546.2 MW Capacity factor for September 2015 through May MWh / MW Source: PJM GATS, NJ OCE and SRECTrade Estimates

6 NJ SUPPLY / DEMAND SCENARIOS ELECTRICITY SALES REMAIN FLAT Oversupplied Undersupplied Energy Year Estimated % Over / (Under) Supplied Case MW/month 15.9% 4.7% -6.0% -8.9% -4.5% -0.4% Case MW/month 15.9% 5.4% -2.5% -3.8% 2.7% 11.6% Case MW/month 15.9% 6.7% 4.6% 10.7% 27.6% 54.4% Source: SRECTrade Estimates

7 NJ SUPPLY / DEMAND SCENARIOS ELECTRICITY SALES REMAIN FLAT SREC Forecast vs. Estimated SRECs Req Case 1-75% of Last 12 Month Average MW Added Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 1,874,559 2,104,097 2,295,378 2,448,403 2,517,265 2,586,126 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 510, ,335 99, Less: Case 1 Estimated SRECs Produced 1,660,994 1,906,041 2,057,250 2,230,230 2,403,210 2,576,190 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (297,335) (99,280) 138, , ,055 9,936 Case 2 - Last 12 Month Average MW Added Remains the Same Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 1,874,559 2,104,097 2,295,378 2,448,403 2,517,265 2,586,126 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 510, , , ,535 Less: Case 3 Estimated SRECs Produced 1,660,994 1,919,883 2,124,520 2,355,160 2,585,800 2,816,440 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (297,335) (113,122) 57,736 93,243 (68,535) (298,850) Case 3-1.5x of Last 12 Month Average MW is Added Per Month Throughout the Forecast Estimated NJ SREC Requirements 1,874,559 2,104,097 2,295,378 2,448,403 2,517,265 2,586,126 Less: Excess SRECs From Prior Period 510, , , , , ,821 Less: Case 4 Estimated SRECs Produced 1,660,994 1,947,568 2,259,060 2,605,020 2,950,980 3,296,940 # of SRECs Under / (Over) Supplied (297,335) (140,807) (104,489) (261,106) (694,821) (1,405,635) Source: SRECTrade Estimates

8 $/SREC NJ HISTORICAL PRICING WITH EDC AUCTION LEVELS Note: Prices in chart approximate spot contracts by using both NJ15 and NJ16 contracts Source: SRECTrade Market Insights OTC Bid OTC Offer EDC Auction