Ulster Bank Ltd. 2 April 2009
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1 Ireland Credit Update Ratings Current Ratings Foreign Currency Long Term IDR A+ Individual C/D Support Rating 1 Ulster Bank Ireland Limited Long Term IDR A+ Individual C/D Support Rating 1 First Active Plc Long Term IDR A+ Individual C/D Support Rating 1 Sovereign Risk Long Term IDR AAA Outlook Foreign Long Term IDR Watch Sovereign Long Term IDR Financial Data (GBP) 31 Dec 2007 Stable Negative 31 Dec 2006 Total assets (USDm) 116, ,299.2 Total assets (GBPm) 58, ,489.0 Total equity (GBPm) 2, ,805.0 Operating profit (GBPm) Published net income (GBPm) Comprehensive income (GBPm) Operating ROAA (%) Operating ROAE (%) Internal capital generation (%) Eligible capital/ Risk Weighted Assets (%) Tier 1 ratio (%) Analysts Andrea Jaehne +44 (0) andrea.jaehne@fitchratings.com Matthew Taylor matthew.taylor@fitchratings.com Rating Rationale The Long and Short Term IDRs and the Support Ratings for (UB) and its wholly owned subsidiaries Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (UBIL) and First Active plc (FA) reflect the extremely high probability of support from their ultimate bank shareholder, Royal Bank of Scotland plc (RBS, rated AA /Outlook Stable), which Fitch Ratings considers would be available in case of need. The Individual Rating for all three entities reflects UB s good franchise and acceptable asset quality in its residential mortgage book as well as its tight capitalisation especially in light of the bank s weakening profitability and significant credit risk exposure to property development finance. UB is part of RBS Group, offering customers RBS Group products and using its procedures and IT systems to enhance cost management. UB has strong, wellestablished franchises in Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Early in 2009, UB announced the merger of UBIL and FA, strengthening the UB brand in the ROI and further reducing costs. In 2008, UB s operating profit sharply declined to EUR376m due to the sudden deterioration of the Irish economy as well as the dislocated funding markets. Residential property development companies in Ireland are proving particularly vulnerable to the economic downturn. UBL is exposed to some of these companies. In this context, growing borrower defaults and declining asset prices mean that Fitch expects UBL to report large loan impairment charges for 2009 and UB s asset quality is acceptable, but the bank s exposure to property development caused some deterioration in 2008 and Fitch expects this to continue in 2009, due to growing borrower defaults and declining asset prices. The bank s loan book has been more diversified than that of its Irish competitors, which may afford some protection from the contracting economy. Customer deposits accounted for less than half of total funding and finance only 50% of the loan book. UB issues debt in its own name but, especially during the market turmoil, has depended increasingly on intragroup funding lines. It now has in hand plans to improve its deposit/loan ratio. UB s liquidity is adequate and liquid assets are of good quality. Market risk is minimal. Fitch views UB s capitalisation as acceptable in light of its credit risk and reasonable profitability. In 2007, UB benefited from a capital injection by RBS. Support UB is wholly owned by RBS. Fitch considers that, if required, there is an extremely high probability of support being provided by its proximate and/or ultimate shareholders. Key Rating Drivers UB s IDR has a Stable Outlook to reflect that assigned to RBS. Any changes to RBS s IDRs and Outlook would also be reflected in the IDRs and Outlook assigned to UB. There would be downward pressure on UB s Individual Rating if asset quality and profitability were to weaken further. Profile UB s two main activities are retail and corporate banking, the latter including financial markets. UB operates 224 branches and 58 business centres. 2 Copyright 2009 by Fitch, Inc. and Fitch Ratings, Ltd. and its subsidiaries. One State Street Plaza, NY, NY Telephone: , (212) Fax: (212) Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. All of the information contained herein has been obtained from sources Fitch believes are reliable, but Fitch does not verify the truth or accuracy of the information. The information in this report is provided 'as is' without any representation or warranty of any kind. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
2 Balance Sheet Analysis ULSTER BANK LTD. Year End Year End As % of Average Year End As % of Year End As % of USDm GBPm Assets GBPm GBPm Assets GBPm Assets Original Original Original Original Original Original Original Original A. LOANS 1. Private n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2. Corporate n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Government n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Other 91, , , , , Loan Impairment n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6. Loan Impairment (memo) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7. Less: Loans from the Insurance Business n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL A 91, , , , , B. OTHER EARNING ASSETS 1. Loans and Advances to Banks 15, , , , , Government Securities 1, Trading Assets n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Derivatives 2, , , Other Securities and Investments 2, , , , Equity Investments Insurance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL B 22, , , , , C. TOTAL EARNING ASSETS (A+B) 113, , , , , D. TANGIBLE FIXED ASSETS E. NON EARNING ASSETS 1. Cash and Due from Banks Other 1, F. TOTAL ASSETS 116, , , , , G. DEPOSITS & MONEY MARKET FUNDING 1. Due to Customers Current Due to Customers Savings n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Due to Customers Term 43, , , , , Deposits with Banks 20, , , , , Other Deposits and Short term Borrowings n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL G 64, , , , , H. OTHER LIABILITIES 1. Derivatives 3, , , Trading Liabilities n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Fair Value Portion of Debt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Insurance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL H 3, , , I. OTHER FUNDING 1. Long term Borrowing 38, , , , , Subordinated Debt 2, , Other Funding n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL I 40, , , , , J. NON INTEREST BEARING 2, , , , K. HYBRID CAPITAL 1. Hybrid capital accounted for as equity Hybrid Capital accounted for as debt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. L. TOTAL LIABILITIES 110, , , , , M. EQUITY 1. Common Equity 4, , , , , Minority Interest Revaluation Reserves TOTAL M 5, , , , , MEMO:CORE CAPITAL 5, , , , , MEMO: ELIGIBLE CAPITAL 5, , , , , N. TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 116, , , , , Exchange Rate USD1 = GBP USD1 = GBP USD1 = GBP
3 Income Statement Analysis ULSTER BANK LTD. Income As % of Income As % of Income As % of Expenses Total AV Expenses Total AV Expenses Total AV GBPm Earning Assts GBPm Earning Assts GBPm Earning Assts Original Original Original Original Original Original 1. Interest Income 3, , , Interest Expense 2, , NET INTEREST REVENUE Net Fees & Commissions Net Insurance Revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. 6. Other Operating Income Personnel Expenses Other Operating Expenses PRE IMPAIRMENT OPERATING PROFIT Loan Impairment Charge Other Credit Impairment and Provisions n.a. n.a. n.a. 12. OPERATING PROFIT Other Income and Expenses n.a. n.a. n.a. 14. PUBLISHED PRE TAX PROFIT Taxes Profit/(Loss) from Discontinued Operations n.a. n.a. n.a. 17. Change in Value of AFS investments CurrencyTranslation Differences n.a. n.a. n.a. 19. Other Gains/(Losses) not in Published Net Income n.a. n.a. n.a. 20. FITCH COMPREHENSIVE INCOME Total Gains/(Losses) not in Published Net Income IFRS Dividends included in Fitch Interest Expense n.a. n.a. n.a. 23. PUBLISHED NET INCOME Ratio Analysis ULSTER BANK LTD. Year End Year End Year End GBPm GBPm GBPm Original Original Original I. PERFORMANCE 1. Net Interest Margin % n.a. 2. Loan Yield % n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Cost of Funds % n.a. 4. Costs/Average Assets % n.a. 5. Costs/Income % Pre Impairment Operating ROAA % n.a. 7. Operating ROAA % n.a. 8. Pre impairment Operating ROAE % n.a. 9. Operating ROAE % n.a. II. CAPITAL ADEQUACY 1. Internal Capital Generation % n.a. 2. Core Capital/Total Assets % Eligible Capital/Regulatory Weighted Risks % Eligible Capital+Eligible Revaluation Reserves/Regulatory Weighted Risks % Tier 1 Regulatory Capital Ratio % Total Regulatory Capital Ratio % Free Capital/Equity % III. LIQUIDITY (year end) 1. Liquid Assets/Deposits & Money Mkt Funding % Loans/Deposits % IV. ASSET QUALITY 1. Loan Impairment Charge/Gross Loans (av.) % n.a. 2. Total Credit Impairment/Pre impairment Operating Profit % Loan Impairment/Gross Impaired Loans % n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Individual Loan Impairment/Gross Impaired Loans % Impaired Loans Gross / Loans Gross % Impaired Loans Net/Eligible Capital % Net Charge offs/gross Loans (av.) % n.a. n.a. n.a. 3
4 Spread Sheet Annex ULSTER BANK LTD. (C.) GBPm Original Original Original TOTAL REPORTED EQUITY 3, , ,331.0 Hybrid capital accounted for as equity Minority interest non loss absorbing n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves equity component of convertible bond n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves employee stock options n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves cash flow hedge reserve Other reserves deemed to be non equity reserves n.a. n.a. n.a. M : EQUITY 2, , ,124.0 Revaluation Reserves Goodwill Deferred income tax assets to be deducted from equity Other intangible assets to be deducted from equity n.a. n.a. n.a. Deferred acquisition costs (insurance) n.a. n.a. n.a. CORE CAPITAL 2, , ,674.0 Eligible Weighted Hybrid Capital FITCH ELIGIBLE CAPITAL 2, , ,857.0 MEMO: Total Weighted Hybrid Capital MEMO: Eligible Hybrid Capital Limit 1, , MEMO: Potential for Further Eligible Hybrid Issuance
5 Balance Sheet Analysis ULSTER BANK IRELAND LIMITED Year End Year End As % of Average Year End As % of Year End As % of USDm EURm Assets EURm EURm Assets EURm Assets Original Original Original Original Original Original Original Original A. LOANS 1. Private n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2. Corporate n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Government n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Other 53, , , , , Loan Impairment n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6. Loan Impairment (memo) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7. Less: Loans from the Insurance Business n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL A 53, , , , , B. OTHER EARNING ASSETS 1. Loans and Advances to Banks 35, , , , , Government Securities Trading Assets n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Derivatives 2, , , , Other Securities and Investments 1, , Equity Investments Insurance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL B 39, , , , , C. TOTAL EARNING ASSETS (A+B) 93, , , , , D. TANGIBLE FIXED ASSETS E. NON EARNING ASSETS 1. Cash and Due from Banks Other F. TOTAL ASSETS 94, , , , , G. DEPOSITS & MONEY MARKET FUNDING 1. Due to Customers Current 25, , , , , Due to Customers Savings n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Due to Customers Term n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Deposits with Banks 50, , , , , Other Deposits and Short term Borrowings n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL G 75, , , , , H. OTHER LIABILITIES 1. Derivatives 2, , , , Trading Liabilities n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Fair Value Portion of Debt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Insurance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL H 2, , , , I. OTHER FUNDING 1. Long term Borrowing 11, , , , Subordinated Debt Other Funding n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL I 11, , , , J. NON INTEREST BEARING K. HYBRID CAPITAL 1. Hybrid capital accounted for as equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2. Hybrid Capital accounted for as debt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. L. TOTAL LIABILITIES 90, , , , , M. EQUITY 1. Common Equity 3, , , , , Minority Interest n.a. 3. Revaluation Reserves TOTAL M 3, , , , , MEMO:CORE CAPITAL 3, , , , , MEMO: ELIGIBLE CAPITAL 4, , , , , N. TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 94, , , , , Exchange Rate USD1 = EUR USD1 = EUR USD1 = EUR
6 Income Statement Analysis ULSTER BANK IRELAND LIMITED Income As % of Income As % of Income As % of Expenses Total AV Expenses Total AV Expenses Total AV EURm Earning Assts EURm Earning Assts EURm Earning Assts Original Original Original Original Original Original 1. Interest Income 3, , , Interest Expense 3, , NET INTEREST REVENUE Net Fees & Commissions Net Insurance Revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. 6. Other Operating Income Personnel Expenses Other Operating Expenses PRE IMPAIRMENT OPERATING PROFIT Loan Impairment Charge Other Credit Impairment and Provisions n.a. n.a. n.a. 12. OPERATING PROFIT Other Income and Expenses n.a. n.a. n.a. 14. PUBLISHED PRE TAX PROFIT Taxes Profit/(Loss) from Discontinued Operations n.a. n.a. n.a. 17. Change in Value of AFS investments n.a. 18. CurrencyTranslation Differences n.a. n.a. n.a. 19. Other Gains/(Losses) not in Published Net Income n.a. n.a FITCH COMPREHENSIVE INCOME Total Gains/(Losses) not in Published Net Income IFRS Dividends included in Fitch Interest Expense n.a. n.a. n.a. 23. PUBLISHED NET INCOME Ratio Analysis ULSTER BANK IRELAND LIMITED Year End Year End Year End EURm EURm EURm Original Original Original I. PERFORMANCE 1. Net Interest Margin % n.a. 2. Loan Yield % n.a. n.a. n.a. 3. Cost of Funds % n.a. 4. Costs/Average Assets % n.a. 5. Costs/Income % Pre Impairment Operating ROAA % n.a. 7. Operating ROAA % n.a. 8. Pre impairment Operating ROAE % n.a. 9. Operating ROAE % n.a. II. CAPITAL ADEQUACY 1. Internal Capital Generation % n.a. 2. Core Capital/Total Assets % Eligible Capital/Regulatory Weighted Risks % Eligible Capital+Eligible Revaluation Reserves/Regulatory Weighted Risks % Tier 1 Regulatory Capital Ratio % Total Regulatory Capital Ratio % Free Capital/Equity % III. LIQUIDITY (year end) 1. Liquid Assets/Deposits & Money Mkt Funding % Loans/Deposits % IV. ASSET QUALITY 1. Loan Impairment Charge/Gross Loans (av.) % n.a. 2. Total Credit Impairment/Pre impairment Operating Profit % Loan Impairment/Gross Impaired Loans % n.a. n.a. n.a. 4. Individual Loan Impairment/Gross Impaired Loans % Impaired Loans Gross / Loans Gross % Impaired Loans Net/Eligible Capital % Net Charge offs/gross Loans (av.) % n.a. n.a. n.a. 6
7 Spread Sheet Annex ULSTER BANK IRELAND LIMITED (C.) EURm Original Original Original TOTAL REPORTED EQUITY 2, , ,427.0 Hybrid capital accounted for as equity n.a. n.a. n.a. Minority interest non loss absorbing n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves equity component of convertible bond n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves employee stock options n.a. n.a. n.a. Other reserves cash flow hedge reserve n.a. Other reserves deemed to be non equity reserves n.a. n.a. n.a. M : EQUITY 2, , ,427.0 Revaluation Reserves Goodwill Deferred income tax assets to be deducted from equity Other intangible assets to be deducted from equity n.a. n.a. n.a. Deferred acquisition costs (insurance) n.a. n.a. n.a. CORE CAPITAL 2, , ,220.0 Eligible Weighted Hybrid Capital FITCH ELIGIBLE CAPITAL 2, , ,229.0 MEMO: Total Weighted Hybrid Capital MEMO: Eligible Hybrid Capital Limit 1, MEMO: Potential for Further Eligible Hybrid Issuance
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