Global Real Assets Strategy Report: Focus on Gold
|
|
- Lillian Caldwell
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Global Investment Strategy Global Real Assets Strategy Report: Focus on Gold February 27, 17 John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Analysis and outlook for the real assets market» Gold s rich history as both a store of value (investments, jewelry, bars, etc.) and money (coins etc.) is something most other major assets cannot claim. What it may mean for investors» Gold holds a place in most investors portfolios, most of the time.» As with other investments, timing and position sizes are key. Gold s Uniqueness Gold is consistently one of the most asked about assets at Wells Fargo. This makes sense to us because gold has a history like no other contemporary investment asset. Gold was discovered nearly 5,000 years ago and was first coined roughly 3,700 years ago (in the area now known as Turkey). Stocks and bonds, on the other hand, were financial instruments created by the Western world in the last 800 years. Gold also has the unique benefit of literally surviving time. Gold is impervious to both air and water, which means that essentially all of the gold ever mined still sits above ground even if sunk off the coast of Florida. Gold s rich history as both a store of value (investments, jewelry, bars, etc.) and money (coins etc.) is something most other major assets cannot claim. Gold s long history, however, has its downside. Gold has been around so long, surviving all types of social and economic turbulence, that it is easy to claim that gold is a cure-all for all kinds of investment scenarios. But it is not. It may surprise some investors to know that gold has not always been a great inflation hedge, it has not always moved opposite the U.S. dollar, it has not always moved higher when stocks have been clobbered, and it has not always reduced investors exposure against the overprinting of paper currencies. We say all of this not to take exception with gold as an investment. In fact, we believe that gold holds a place in most investors portfolios, most of the time. But, as with other investments, timing and position sizes are key. If history is any guide, gold will likely see a period of flat performance in 17. To help investors better understand gold as an investment, we are releasing one gold publication each day this week (list below). Each publication will revolve around the most frequently asked gold questions. We ll start today with some history behind gold, and why it is unique. Monday Gold s Uniqueness Tuesday Who Owns Gold Wednesday How Gold Behaves Thursday Gold vs. Other Assets Friday Gold & Gold Miners in Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 7
2 Why Gold is Special Durability, density, and radiance have made gold an ideal store of wealth through time. Durability in that gold is impervious to air and water. Unlike any other element on earth, virtually every ounce of gold ever mined still sits above ground somewhere. Density a cubic foot of gold weighs half a ton. This means that small amounts of gold can function as large money denominations. This comes in particularly handy for, say, refugees trying to cross borders with some wealth in tact to start over. Gold has global value versus the economically and socially torn country that the refugee is fleeing, which likely has a failing paper currency. And then radiance gold is chemically inert, meaning that it shines forever. Even though gold has been found on every continent, the earth does not yield gold easily. Chart 1 highlights the total amount of gold mined in its history, roughly 175,000 tonnes (metric tons). (Chart 1 begins in 1900, but it includes mined gold prior to that year as well.) By comparison, the world produces roughly 159,000 tonnes of aluminum each day (as of February 17). Chart 1. Gold Above Ground Total Gold Above Ground 140 1,000 Metric Tons Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Yearly Data: data includes estimates from USGS. Dates selected to show modern growth of gold above ground Sources: USGS (15 estimate), World Steel Association, Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 17 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 7
3 Of course, this is reflected in price. Gold trades at roughly $1,0 per ounce, while aluminum trades at more than $1,800 per tonne. A fun way of showing how rare, or precious, gold can be is seen in the soda display below. A 12-ounce soda can contains roughly one-half an ounce of aluminum worth roughly $0.03. If the soda can was made of steel instead, the cost would be roughly $0.01. In great contrast to both aluminum and steel, should that same soda can be made of gold, it would cost roughly $600. Gold as a Store of Wealth (Investments, Jewelry, Bars, etc.) Early in its history, as in 4,000-5,000 years ago, gold was primarily used as a store of value or wealth. Most of the available gold was used by priests and monarchs to project power, wealth, and proximity to a god. In ancient Egypt, for example, gold was a royal prerogative, available only to the Pharaohs. Fortunately for the Pharaohs, gold was quite accessible, as most of the gold supplies in biblical times came from mines in southern Egypt and Nubia (today s Sudan, or just south of today s Egypt). Gold as Money (Coins) While gold began predominantly as a store of value, it was not long before it was being used as everyday money. Coins were first produced roughly 3,700 years ago in Asia Minor, or what is today s Turkey. Since then, gold has served two purposes, as a store of value or as money for everyday transactions. But although the two uses are related, the second is more problematic than the first. Businesses and people need money when we want to buy something or want to hire someone. We all use money when we want something today rather than tomorrow. We also borrow from someone willing to wait until later to spend their money (i.e. credit). The main point here is that money seldom sits still. It needs to grow and shrink based on the needs of people, businesses, and economies. And herein lies the struggle with using gold as the world s money, or what we call the base currency the earth only yields so much gold and unpredictably throughout history. Chart 2 shows yearly global gold production in tonnes (red line) versus the price of gold (blue line). It was not until the mid-1700s that gold production surpassed even tonnes in a given year. 17 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 7
4 Chart 2. Gold Production vs. Price Gold Production (Metric Tons) Gold Production Gold Price Gold Price (US dollar/oz) Sources: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Bloomberg, Prices by G.F. Warren and F.A. Pearson, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Yearly Data: Data shown in log scale. Dates selected to show all available data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Gold Standard When gold was used as a prime source of exchange, a country s economic prospects and flexibility were often tied to how much gold it owned. Countries that held gold could effectively expand credit, while those that did not, could not. To dig out of the Great Depression many western countries were forced to scrap the gold standard during the late 19s and early 1930s in favor of printing paper money with no or little gold backing. Paper currencies not backed by gold are the prime medium of money exchange today. However, some investors believe that today s Central Banks have gone too far printing too much paper money not backed by anything other than the full faith and credit of a country or a region such as the Eurozone. They are arguing for a return to gold-back paper currencies, fearing that excessive paper money printing may eventually lead to hyperinflation and the collapse of the currency. 17 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 7
5 Should world economies return to a gold standard? We re not sold on the idea, at least as it was devised 100 years ago. A gold standard is quite economically inflexible, as the western world learned during the Great Depression. We cannot completely dismiss the fear of excessive money printing, though. Chart 3 emphasizes that global money supplies sit at record highs. Notice the dramatic expansion in money supply, since the 08 Financial Crisis. The extra money supply, however, has not led to higher-thannormal global inflation. In fact, global inflation rates, in recent years, have been running below historical norms. Chart 3. Global Money Supply Global M2 Money Supply (Billions US dollar) China Canada UK Eurozone Japan U.S Source: World Bank, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Monthly Data: 1/31/ /31/16. Dates selected to show modern increase in money supply across major economies. While excessive inflation has yet to rear its head, we still advise closely watching global money supply growth. Higher inflation rates could eventually return, which could be bullish for gold prices. Chart 4 is one way to track whether excessive money supply growth could lead to higher gold prices. The dark blue line is the price of gold. The light blue line is the global money supply divided by global above-ground gold supply. A rising light blue line means that paper money supplies are growing faster than gold supplies, which is one way of saying that Central Banks may be overprinting. In recent years, the light blue line has stopped moving higher, which fits well with gold prices sinking (less fear of overprinting paper currencies). That is it for today. Tomorrow we will go into greater detail on who owns gold and why. 17 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 7
6 Chart 4. Global Money Supply / Global Gold Supply 25 *Global Money Supply / Global Gold Supply Gold Price Ratio Gold Price (US dollar/oz) Source: Bloomberg, USGS, World Bank, FRED, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. *Global Money Supply estimated by combining M2 Measures for the U.S.,UK, China, Japan, Canada, and the Eurozone. Ratio is the global money supply divided by the global gold supply. Monthly Data: 1/31/ /31/15. Dates selected to show how the modern increase in money supply and gold have moved in relation to each other. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Risk Factors There is no assurance that any of the target prices or other forward-looking statements mentioned will be attained. Investing in physical commodities, such as gold, exposes a portfolio to other risk considerations such as potentially severe price fluctuations over short periods of time and storage costs that exceed the custodial and/or brokerage costs associated with the portfolio s other holdings. Products that concentrate their investments in the gold industry increase their vulnerability to international, economic, monetary and political developments affecting the industry. Investments in gold and gold-related investments tend to be more volatile than investments in traditional equity or debt securities. Such investments increase their vulnerability to international economic, monetary and political developments. They are also exposed to the risk of severe price fluctuations in the price of gold bullion. Definitions Tonne/Metric Ton is unit of weight equal to 1,000 kilograms (2,5 lbs). Disclaimers Global Investment Strategy ( GIS ) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. ( WFII ). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company and provides investment advice to Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors and other Wells Fargo affiliates. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. 17 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 7
7 The information in this report was prepared by the GIS division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Additional information available upon request. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The material contained herein has been prepared from sources and data we believe to be reliable but we make no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or investment product. Opinions and estimates are as of a certain date and subject to change without notice. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 7 of 7
Do U.S. Tariffs Change Our Commodity Outlook?
FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Do U.S. Tariffs Change Our Commodity Outlook? March 12, 2018 Key takeaways» The U.S. recently
More informationWhy We See Lower Copper Prices in 2018
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Why We See Lower Copper Prices in 218 December 21, 217 Key Takeaways» 216 and 217 were great years
More informationWhen Gasoline Prices Matter
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy When Gasoline Prices Matter May 17, 2018 Key takeaways» Gasoline prices have risen by 18% year-over-year
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS April 24, 2018 Rising Household Debt Canary in the Coal Mine? Key takeaways» The level of consumer credit
More informationKey Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.
Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing May 8, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index is continuing to consolidate
More informationKey Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week.
Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing March 12, 2018 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index continues to consolidate in
More informationKey Takeaways. What it may mean for investors. Chart 1. U.S. appears to be near the beginning of the late stage of the cycle
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS January 17, 2018 Where Exactly Are We in the U.S. Economic Recovery?
More informationNAFTA Where Do We Stand?
Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS NAFTA Where Do We Stand? July 17, 2018 Key takeaways» Concerns about international trade have been mounting
More informationKey Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.
Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing July 10, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Quantitative and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains
More informationStudent Loan Debt Headwind to Economic Growth
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS January 29, 2019 Student Loan Debt Headwind to Economic Growth Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Student loan debt continues
More informationKey Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. S&P 500 Index. U.S. Dollar Index. Chart of the Week. Crude Oil.
Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing December 4, 2017 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains
More informationCorrections Do Not Equal Recessions
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Corrections Do Not Equal Recessions November 6, 2018 Key takeaways» When equity markets correct, fears may
More informationDead Dollar Bull? WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst.
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Dead Dollar Bull? March 3, 208 Key takeaways» The U.S. dollar has experienced three secular cycles of
More informationWhy is Investor Confidence Lagging?
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Why is Investor Confidence Lagging? July 3, 2018 Key takeaways» Typically, late in the economic cycle, we
More informationDebt Growth Reckless or Reasonable?
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Debt Growth Reckless or Reasonable? February 6, 2018 Key takeaways» The availability of credit largely
More informationRecessions are Unavoidable. WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 19, 2017 Recession Indicators Agree the Expansion Continues
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 19, 2017 Recession Indicators Agree the Expansion Continues Key Takeaways» There are several
More informationWhat s Going on in Italy?
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS What s Going on in Italy? October 16, 2018 Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Global financial markets have been rocked by concerns
More informationWhat is repatriation of cash?
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS September 25, 2018 Repatriation How Are Firms Using Their Overseas Cash? Key takeaways» U.S. businesses are bringing
More informationEconomic forces behind the equity-market correction
WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Paul Christopher, CFA Head of Global Market Strategy February 26, 2018 Perspectives on Inflation, Interest Rates, and Equities» The expanding U.S.
More informationJust How Strong is the U.S. Labor Market?
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Just How Strong is the U.S. Labor Market? September 11, 2018 Key takeaways» The U.S. labor market is currently
More informationWhat Is A Gold ETF? Why Own A Gold ETF?
Gold ETFs have become all the rage ever since gold started its upward trajectory nearly a decade ago. Knowing that individual investors were looking for an easy, hassle-free way to get exposure to gold,
More informationKey Takeaways. Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing. U.S. Dollar Index. S&P 500 Index. Chart of the Week.
Global Investment Strategy Technical Strategy Briefing January 2, 2018 Sameer Samana, CFA Global Equity and Technical Strategist Key Takeaways S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index has broken out and remains
More informationWEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted?
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 18, 2018 Are Rising Household Debt Concerns Warranted? Key takeaways» Concerns have risen about the
More information2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS 2019: A Mixed Picture for the Global Economy January 2, 2019 Key takeaways» We believe U.S. economic growth
More informationWhat Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling?
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS What Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling? September 19, 2017 Key Takeaways» Consumer and investor
More informationA Snapshot of Small Business Enthusiasm: Part 1
Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS A Snapshot of Small Business Enthusiasm: Part 1 January
More informationDowngrading REITs to Neutral
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE C OMMODITY AND REAL E STATE MARKETS Downgrading REITs to Neutral June 14, 2018 John LaForge Head of Real Asset Strategy Key takeaways» We believe that real estate investment
More informationMixed Signals from the U.S. Economy
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy January 15, 2019 Key takeaways» Increased U.S. market volatility and negative
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE I NTERNATIONAL MARKETS. Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE I NTERNATIONAL MARKETS Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst March 22, 2018 Framing the Economic Implications of a Trade War Key takeaways» Financial markets were rattled
More informationFed Tightening: How Global Markets May React
Bobby Zheng, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Fed Tightening: How Global Markets May React August 8, 2017 Key
More informationWhy We Remain Neutral on Latin America
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Why We Remain Neutral on Latin America November 27, 2018 Key takeaways» Latin American equities have outperformed
More informationU.S. Wage Growth: Highest Since Dec-10 Jul-11. Jan-08 Jul-08. Jul-11 Jan-12. Jan-13. Jan-15. Jan-16. Jan-18. Jan-17. Jul-13. Jul-12.
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Surprise! Inflation? March 6, 2018 Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Last month s sell-off in global equities was arguably triggered
More informationWEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS October 23, 2018 Wage Growth and Savings Supportive of Higher Spending
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS October 23, 2018 Wage Growth and Savings Supportive of Higher Spending Key takeaways» Wages in the U.S. have
More informationStudent Loan Debt Worries May Be Overstated
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS June 12, 2018 Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Student Loan Debt Worries May Be Overstated Key takeaways» Today, U.S. student loan debt
More informationGlobal Equity Strategy Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Equity Strategy Report April 26, 2017 Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Scott Wren Senior Global Equity Strategist Analysis and outlook for the equity
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS. Global Investment Strategy Team
FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS Global Investment Strategy Team February 5, 2018 Market Sell-off What Investors Need to Know Now Key takeaways» A swift climb in the 10-year
More informationCurrent corporate debt environment
Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 30, 2018 Rising Corporate Debt What It May Mean for Equities Key takeaways» Our expectation for gradually
More informationDiversified Stock Income Plan
Joseph E. Buffa, Equity Sector Analyst Michael A. Colón, Equity Sector Analyst Diversified Stock Income Plan 2017 Concept Review The Diversified Stock Income Plan (DSIP List) focuses on companies that
More informationKey Takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst
Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 12, 2017 The Mystery of Inflation and What Lies Ahead Key Takeaways» As most investors know, inflation
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst
Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS February 21, 2018 Small Business Snapshot Part II: Labor
More informationU.S. Inflation Concerns Appear Misguided
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS U.S. Inflation Concerns Appear Misguided October 9, 2018 Key takeaways» Strong U.S. economic growth and a
More informationPlanning in a New Interest Rate Environment
The following information and opinions are provided courtesy of Wells Fargo Bank N.A. Wealth Planning Update Planning in a New Interest Rate Environment FEBRUARY 2016 Matthew Brady Senior Director of Planning,
More informationWorld Trade Powering Global Economic Growth
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth August 1, 217 Key Takeaways» Evidence is mounting that global
More informationPolicy, Politics & Portfolios
Policy, Politics & Portfolios DEBT AND CHICKENS February 26, 2019 Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Politics 2 Following the recent government shutdown, the next major fiscal hurdle will be the upcoming
More informationTime to Mine for Gold Mining Opportunities?
SPECIAL GOLD REPORT Time to Mine for Gold Mining Opportunities? Have gold miners hit a bottom? Is there an attractive entry point? What are the drivers for a rebound? Since many gold companies plummeted
More informationKey Takeaways. What it May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Paul Christopher, CFA Head Global Market Strategist July 11, 2017 Does Rising Mortgage Debt Signal an Economic
More informationAs Good as Gold. April 24, Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett
As Good as Gold April 24, 2013 Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett Whenever one of our investments experiences a significant price correction, we regard
More informationWhat Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off?
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE E QUITY MARKETS Investment Strategy Team What Is Behind the Equity Sell-Off? March 26, 2018 Key takeaways» Investors are concerned about the negative implications of a potential
More informationMarket Maps. April 2016 Bob Dickey, Technical Analyst. RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group U.S. Equities.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group U.S. Equities Image Area Market Maps April 2016 Bob Dickey, Technical Analyst For Important Disclosures, see slides 12 13 Priced as of March 30, 2016,
More informationPolicy, Politics & Portfolios
Policy, Politics & Portfolios LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS July 31, 2018 Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Midterm elections 2 The Democrats look to ride a blue wave to take back the House
More informationOutlook for Gold and Gold Stocks
INVESTMENT STRATEGY NOTES Nick Majendie, CA Director, Wealth Management ScotiaMcLeod Senior Portfolio Manager, with responsibility for advising the Anchor June 1 st, 2013 Stock Market Outlook Outlook for
More informationHow Precious Are Precious Metals?
How Precious Are Precious Metals? MATERIALS SECTOR REPORT 9 November 2017 ANALYST(S) Dan J. Sherman, CFA Edward Jones clients can access the full research report with full disclosures on any of the companies
More informationElections Are Reshaping the Global Landscape
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Elections Are Reshaping the Global Landscape November 20, 2018 Key takeaways» Elections around the world have
More informationWhy Bullion is Outperforming Mining Stocks
BMG ARTICLES Why Bullion is Outperforming Mining Stocks 1 I f the investment choice is between mining stocks and physical bullion, it is essential to remember that these are different asset classes with
More informationWhat Can Happen with Gold If the Dollar Collapses?
What Can Happen with Gold If the Dollar Collapses? December 4, 2012, 11:43 AM Today s essay is the first one in our two-part commentary on U.S. debt and the dollar collapse. On numerous occasions we have
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Investment Strategy Report June 19, 2017 Justin Lenarcic Global Alternative Investment Strategist Weekly market insights from the Global Investment Strategy team» The
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy Report
Global Investment Strategy Global Investment Strategy Report June 5, 2017 Tracie McMillion, CFA Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy Weekly market insights from the Global Investment Strategy team»
More informationWrestling with Something Else : Why this Gold Bear Market Is Different
Wrestling with Something Else : Why this Gold Bear Market Is Different May 15, 2015 by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors Earlier this week, I had the pleasure to appear on Jim Puplava s Financial Sense
More informationREASONS TO ADD SHINE TO YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH GOLD
3 REASONS TO ADD SHINE TO YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH GOLD Gold prices have enjoyed their share of highs and lows in recent years, due to both the China-led commodity cycle over the previous decade, and more recently
More informationThe Fighting Irish of the Investment World
The Fighting Irish of the Investment World Gold s On A Tear Gold has enjoyed its best start to a year in three decades, climbing more than 20 percent, and its dramatic climb higher is even more evident
More informationPrecious Metals Make a Portfolio Shine
Precious Metals Make a Portfolio Shine As a rule of thumb, a balanced portfolio contains assets positioned along a risk/return continuum. Depending on their risk tolerance and time horizon, most investors
More informationHow Have Tariffs Affected U.S. Trade?
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS How Have Tariffs Affected U.S. Trade? September 18, 2018 Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Since March, market participants and
More informationWarehousing bullion for gold's supermarket As metal hits new highs, exchange-traded fund's $18 billion cache only grows
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433 Registration No. 333-139016 January 14, 2008 Warehousing bullion for gold's supermarket As metal hits new highs, exchange-traded fund's $18 billion cache only grows By John Spence,
More information2013 SECOND QUARTER ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT REVIEW July 13, 2013
2013 SECOND QUARTER ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT REVIEW July 13, 2013 HIGHLIGHTS Markets fall worldwide on nervousness about higher US interest rates Housing continues to recover, but may be slowing due to higher
More informationold A portfolio without gold is a luxury you can no longer afford.
old A portfolio without gold is a luxury you can no longer afford. HISTORY IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND Fascination with gold is as old as history. Gold was and is prized for its rarity, beauty, and indestructibility,
More informationDiversified Managed Allocations
Diversified Managed Allocations Multi-strategy portfolios with a focus on flexibility Is this program right for you? DMA is designed for investors who: Want experienced, professional money managers to
More information2016 July Financial Market Update
Brexit Fades as Focus Returns Home 2016 July Financial Market Update Last month s summary ended with the following remarks: July 29, 2016 Don t discount the possibility of additional short-term volatility
More informationTax Reform s Likely Effect on Housing
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Tax Reform s Likely Effect on Housing February 13, 2018 Key takeaways» Recent tax changes, including the doubling
More informationGOLD & SILVER Investment Guide
$49.00 GOLD & SILVER Investment Guide Gold & Silver The Best Investments Ever! Looking to make money with your gold and silver investments? Of course you are That s why you re reading this gold and silver
More informationWhy invest in stocks?
Ian Mikkelsen, CFA, Associate Equity Sector Analyst Why invest in stocks? Why should someone invest in stocks? Historically, stocks have performed well when compared to other financial assets, and have
More informationYOUR GUIDE TO GETTING STARTED
University of Colorado Hospital Authority 401(a) Investment Account, 403(b) Matching Account, and the 457(b) Deferred Compensation Plan Invest in your retirement and yourself today, with help from the
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance. December 9, October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP
COMMENTARY NUMBER 405 October Trade Balance December 9, 2011 October Trade Deficit Suggests Positive Contribution to Fourth-Quarter GDP Nonmonetary Gold Trade Patterns Are Not Easily Tied to Gold Price
More informationGold and The Interdependence of Prices
Gold and The Interdependence of Prices Jason Ruspini, Vice President, Conquest Capital Group jruspini@conquestcg.com When Does Gold Rise? When people are irrational or have irrational expectations of societal
More informationFundSource. Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios. A sophisticated approach to mutual fund investing
FundSource Professionally managed, diversified mutual fund portfolios Is this program right for you? FundSource is designed for investors who: Want a diversified portfolio of mutual funds that fits their
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 8, 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Could Last a Little Longer Key takeaways» Recent economic improvement
More informationTrading Lessons from the Intraday Frame (study)
1 Daily "Idealized Trades" Report Trading Lessons from the Intraday Frame (study) 1 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved. 2 Trading Lessons from the Intraday Frame (1-mi) 2 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights
More informationKey Takeaways. What It May Mean for Investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Michael Taylor, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS October 31, 2017 Consumer Debt Not Likely to Derail U.S. Economy
More informationCompeting Forces in the U.S. Housing Market
Ken Johnson, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Competing Forces in the U.S. Housing Market April 10, 2018 Key
More informationDESIGNED FOR TODAY S AND TOMORROW S INVESTMENT CHALLENGES
DESIGNED FOR TODAY S AND TOMORROW S INVESTMENT CHALLENGES PRUDENTIAL REAL ASSETS FUND EFFECTIVE JUNE 11, 2018, THE FUND S NEW NAME WILL BE PGIM REAL ASSETS FUND. FUND SYMBOLS WILL NOT CHANGE. Potential
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Analyst. June 2016
Market Maps June 2016 Bob Dickey, Technical Analyst RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group For Important Disclosures, see slides 12 13; priced as of May 31, 2016, unless otherwise noted DJIA
More informationTrading Patterns For Stocks And Commodities
Trading Patterns For Stocks And Commodities It doesn t matter if you are a long-term investor, short swing trader or day trader, you are always looking for an advantageous spot to enter your position.
More informationGlobal Growth On Track or Derailed?
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Global Growth On Track or Derailed? Key takeaways May 15, 2018» Concerns regarding the global growth outlook
More informationPolicy, Politics & Portfolios
Policy, Politics & Portfolios ELECTION POST-MORTEM November 27, 2018 Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst Midterm elections 2 The elections are over. Democrats retook control of the House of Representatives,
More informationThe Mining Coup of the Millennium
The Mining Coup of the Millennium MATT BADIALI S Real Wealth Strategist The Mining Coup of the Millennium THE price of copper fell steadily for five years, losing nearly 50% of its value before finally
More informationCentral banks, the stock market, and gold
Central banks, the stock market, and gold When the pillars of the asset category that must be defended the stock market begin to crumble, the central banks always come in with policy guns a blazin. And
More informationA Guide to 2016 s Market Volatility. CONGRESS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 250 Northern Ave, Suite 310, Boston, MA
CONGRESS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 250 Northern Ave, Suite 310, Boston, MA 02210 www.congresswealth.com Contents What will it take to calm the markets? Will the correction in U.S. stocks turn into a bear
More informationBullion Weekly Technicals Monday, 15 October 2012
Technical Analysis Research Bullion Weekly Technicals Monday, 15 October 2012 Technical Outlook Axel Rudolph +44 207 475 5721 axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com For important disclosure information please see
More informationUnderstanding the Key Support Levels for Gold
Understanding the Key Support Levels for Gold Gold bulls and inquiring minds are perplexed by last week's mayhem in the precious metals markets. In addition to gold and silver, copper prices also went
More informationpresented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Black Gold
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Black Gold Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all persons. Before deciding
More informationINVESTOR S COMPLETE GOLD BUYING GUIDE
INVESTOR S COMPLETE GOLD BUYING GUIDE Let s recap In the first video (Why Gold Belongs In Your Portfolio), you learned: Why Gold Belongs in your portfolio How much more money you grow over time with a
More informationCOMMODITY RESEARCH Kunal Kame COMMODITY DAILY 13 TH DEC 2017
COMMODITY RESEARCH Kunal Kame COMMODITY DAILY 13 TH DEC 2017 In Friday s Session Bullion continued with its bearish trend where Gold remained at five month low as investors continued to focus on the US
More information2014 Wells Fargo Middle-Class Retirement Study
2014 Wells Fargo Middle-Class Retirement Study Table of contents Overview 1 Key findings 2 Background and methodology 8 Overview Consistent with findings from previous surveys, middle-class Americans continue
More informationHOW TO INVEST IN GOLD
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD A SNAPSHOT OF THREE INVESTORS Portfolio Diversification Interest Rate Trends Rare Coins vs. Dow Jones Industrial Worldwide Gold Availability Certified Gold vs. Bullion Presented by
More informationGold Futures vs. Gold ETF s
PRECIOUS METALS Gold Futures vs. Gold ETF s UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENCES AND OPPORTUNITIES There are significant differences in the liquidity, leverage and costs of futures and ETFs that need to be understood
More informationQuarterly portfolio Summary
Quarterly portfolio Summary Sample ETF Portfolio June 30, 2013 Target Current Investment Mix: % $ % Fixed Income: 64.95% $16,238.15 65.00% Growth: 35.00% $8,749.74 35.00% Cash/Cash Equivalents:* 0.05%
More informationCOMMODITIES AND A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
INVESTING INSIGHTS COMMODITIES AND A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO As global commodity prices continue to linger in a protracted slump, investors in these hard assets have seen disappointing returns for several
More informationEconomics: Investing in gold for Egyptians Dr. Ahmed Zikrallah
نوفمبر 2017 تقارير 0 Economics: Investing in gold for Egyptians Dr. Ahmed Zikrallah Investment in gold is a safe haven for protecting the wealth value, especially during times of global financial crises,
More informationDiversifying growth is beneficial
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 4, 2018 Resilient U.S. Economy Continues Its Solid Growth Key takeaways» The U.S. economy continues
More informationQ&A Market Implications of Tax Reform
IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF TIMELY INVESTMENT TOPICS Q&A Market Implications of Tax Reform December 27, 2017 Investment Strategy Team Key Takeaways» The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law on December
More informationPhysical Precious Metals and the Individual Investor
2 6 8 9 Physical Precious Metals and the Individual Investor Physical precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium are well known for their historical use as a medium of exchange, a component in
More information