Shu-Yuan Lee, Yung-Ho Weng, Peng-Yin Lin, and Sheng-Ti Hung 1. Ⅰ Introduction

Transcription

1 A tudy of Ant-Dumpng Duty under Far Trade Rule:An Applcaton on the Case of Chna Towels n Tawan hu-yuan Lee, Yung-Ho Weng, eng-yn Ln, and heng-t Hung Ⅰ Introducton The World Trade Organzaton (WTO), ts man functon s to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predctably and freely as possble, such as agrcultural agreement whch s to promote farness on agrcultural trade and servce. Other rules such as safeguard agreement, tarff estmaton agreement and country of orgn agreement are to help far competton and to acheve effcent tradng effects. Only n a few crcumstances WTO allows lmted competton to mantan the goal of far trade, for examples, ant-dumpng polcy and balance taxaton polcy. From the aspect of conventonal economc theory, not only Ncoclasscal approach nor trategc approach consdered ant-dumpng polcy as a protecton cover to the development of domestc target ndustres. From the statstc data of WTO, there were about 0 to 0 cases per year for ant-dumpng cases; however, ths number ncreased rapdly up to 00 cases per year snce 995 whch ndcates that protectng domestc target ndustres has been an mportant polcy noton for each country. Up to 007, there were,0 cases under nvestgaton for ant-dumpng. Unfortunately, loose applyng ant-dumpng measure causes certan damage to export enterprses, ncludng replyng complcate nvestgaton process, losng orders and huge amount of money on lawsut cases. Under a perfectly compettve market, threatened frms are nsured for ther proft but cause negatve effects on other mddle and downstream frms. Anderson(99) analyzed 8 ant-dumpng cases durng 989 to 990 and found that each consumer has to carry cost up to,800 dollars and whole socety has to carry cost at least 4,00 dollars for ncreasng one workng opportunty of a protected ndustry. In an aspect of law, t s not necessary to rule all dumpng behavors unless dumpng behavors damage domestc ndustres and rase prces to consumers. hu-yuan Lee s an assstant professor n the Department of Internatonal Trade at Chhlee Insttute of Technology, Yung-Ho Weng s the professor n the Department of Economc at Natonal Chengch Unversty, eng-yn Ln s a h.d student at Natonal Chengch Unversty, heng-t Hung s a h. D tudent n the Department of Economc at Unv. of Hawa at Manoa.

2 Hence, only those dumpng whch damage relevant ndustres to mport countres should be forbdden (Qu, 005). Moreover, ant-dumpng produces clockwse-compettve effect towards nternatonal trade and has been treated as a new tradng barrer on free trade. Up to ths pont, we conclude that collectng duty from ant-dumpng benefts producers but could cause negatve mpacts on socal welfare and volate the belef of WTO n the same tme. Thus, our goal s to fnd out the optmal duty on ant-dumpng. We revewed relevant references and found most of them have dffcultes to apply emprcal case studes (Webb, 99; Chen, 00). Other emprcal references are to estmate the mpact of ant-dumpng dutes by usng smple statstcs. (Hughes, 997; Zuo, 00). As to the optmal dutes, most studes are theoretcal. (chmtz and eale. 004; Zhou,004 ) In ths paper, we are applyng Commercal olcy Analyss ystem (COMA) developed by Unted tates Internatonal Trade Commsson (UITC) to analyze data emprcally. nce manland Chna and Tawan have been members of WTO now, the reactons between manland Chna and Tawan are becomng frequent, especally under the pressure of low labor cost n manland Chna. Assume towel market n Tawan s perfect competton whch satsfes the frst condton of COMA model and we choose the manland Chna towel case to be our objectve because ths s the frst case that we swtch on ant-dumpng measure. The framework of ths paper s as followng: the frst secton s ntroducton; the second secton states the mpact of ant-dumpng taxaton on mport countres; secton ntroduces COMA model and secton 4 provdes emprcal results and analyss. ecton 5 concludes and suggests future works. Ⅱ The Impacts of Ant-Dumpng Duty In the nternatonal trade theores, so called optmal tarff, s the tarff whch acheves maxmum socal welfare. Accordng to the Act of Tawan tarff no. 68, the mportng prces of goods are far below the prces of analogous domestc goods and cause damage to domestc ndustry, then the mported goods need to be taxed not only mport duty but also ant-dumpng tax. Hence, n our paper we defne the optmal taxaton of ant-dumpng s the tax level whch acheves maxmum socal welfare. uppose we are small country scale and perfect competton and prce taker for

3 nternatonal prce, let mportng prce wthout dumpng s w, the domestc producton O B, consumpton OE and mport BE are shown n Fgure. Assume there s a dumpng behavor happened and ts prce s below nternatonal prce (suppose nternatonal prce s the same as domestc prce n export country), then the producton of mport country s O A, consumpton s OF mport s A F. Now we add ant-dumpng duty on goods, then the change of prce s from to, domestc supply ncreases from OA to O C, but consumpton decreases down to OD same as mport shrnks down to C D. We can see clearly that ant-dumpng duty s able to help mportng competton,encourage domestc producton and protect domestc ndustres. rce and h w G H I J K L D h 0 A B C D E F Quantty Fgure. The mpact of ant-dumpng duty From the pont of vew of socal welfare, comparng before and after dumpng, we found the domestc prce of mport country ncreases wth collectng ant-dumpng duty; total consumpton decreases therefore consumpton surplus decreases. But ant-dumpng duty protects domestc producton and then stmulates producer surplus; the total socal welfare after addng consumer surplus and producer surplus produces IGJ and KHL quantty effect and trade condton effect respectvely. net welfare loss whch are trade Revewng relevant references regardng mpacts of ant-dumpng on development of domestc ndustres and socal welfare ssues, most of them, so called Neoclasscal approach, under the assumpton of constant return to scale, consdered that ant-dumpng polcy protects domestc ndustres from competton but damage downstream ndustres and consumers. Devault(996) found that

4 producer surplus ncreased at least I mllon dollars, tax revenues ncrease 0.49 bllon and consumer total loss s 0.65 bllon per year after collectng ant-dumpng taxaton. Total net loss of socal welfare n U..A s 0.8 bllon dollars per year. Wu and La (997) found that there was a net socal welfare revenue whch s.59 bllon brought by removng ant-dumpng polcy proceed n 99. They concluded that the exstence of ant-dumpng polcy and balance taxaton rase cost.59 bllon to U..A economy to nduce hgher prce ndex and dstorton of labor force and captal. However, changng the assumpton to ncreasng return to scale and to ncomplete competton market, ant-dumpng polcy could ether protect relatve domestc ndustres or not hurt downstream ndustres and consumers. Webb(99) argued the same pont that proceedng ant-dumpng polcy could beneft domestc producers and consumers. He found that the ncrease of domestc supply could compensate the decrease of foregn supply under the assumpton of ncomplete market and decreasng producton cost. Chen (00)argued the mpact of tradng transfer on ant-dumpng polcy and clamed that ant-dumpng polcy mght cause postve socal welfare f domestc producers have advantage cost. Hughes (997) used return rate of stock to fnd a postve mpact of ant-dumpng polcy to semconductor ndustres. From the above references, we confrmed a postve effect of ant-dumpng polcy towards domestc ndustry protecton; however, t has dfferent stores from the pont of vew of consumer and socal welfare. Thus, t s worth fndng the optmal taxaton. Zhou (004) clamed that settng optmal ant-dumpng duty could be based on evaluatng maxmum socal welfare f substtuton effects s the same or weaker between domestc and foregn goods. Contnung the above statement, we thought the man pont s how to correct unfar trade, such as dumpng behavor to far trade; n other words, t should be used to check and balance unfar trade nstead of counteractng competton from foregn goods. Our contrbuton dfferng from prevous references s to apply emprcal study by usng COMA model and analyze the case of dumpng behavor of manland Chna towel. 4

5 Ⅲ The Theoretcal tructure of the COMA Model The partal equlbrum model plays an mportant role n the quanttatve analyss of trade and trade polcy, and ts relatve smplcty and economy n terms of data requrements have made t the tool of choce for more narrowly focused trade ssues. In order to have an exact result, our study apples COMA model that was developed for the U Internatonal Trade Commsson (UITC) by Francos and Hall (99). It s a convenent model, requre nformaton on only a handful of key parameters and can be executed n standard spreadsheets. Because our towel market s the compettve market and t fts n wth COMA model s asumpton. Our paper apples ths method to measure the effects after dumpng.. The theoretcal structure of the COMA model The COMA model s based on the hypothess of Armngton (996) and ths hypothess demonstrates the demand of a partcular product whch cannot substtute for other goods can poses the dfferent prces n several regons. Assumng that () mport demands are separable among mport sources, () elastcty of substtuton between all pars of products wthn a group are constant, and () the sze of the market does not afect each country s market share (hu-yuan Lee,006). Further relates n detal the COMA model the basc assumptons :. The demand of mport goods s the functon of mport prce and domestc prce. And the supply elastcty of mport can enlarge nfntely great.. Our country smlar products demand also for mported prce wth tself market prce functon, but supples only receves the tself market prce the nfluence.. Our country smlar products' market mechansm to compete completely, the equlbrum prce and the output decde n the demand curve and place of the supply curve ntersecton. 4. The mport and our country smlar products for substtute not completely (mperfect substtuton),our country smlar products demand's reduced scope s smaller than the mport demand ncreases the scope. The assumptons of COMA model consults of Huang(998). 5

6 Followng Francos and Hall (00), we descrbe the market that we want to analyze wth a set of elastcty.e., elastcty of supply, aggregate elastcty of demand and elastcty of substtuton. We concentrate on one market whch has trade wth two countres. ()Elastcty of substtuton n the domestc market d ( Q / Q j ) j j d ( / ) j 0 () :elastcty of substtuton j j Q :quantty of trade for goods made n country :prce of goods made n country ()Elastcty of supply to the domestc market s d Q s s d s 0 :elastcty of supply of goods made n country. () s Q :quantty of trade for goods made n country.(supply sde) s :prce of trade for goods made n country.(supply sde) ()Aggregate elastcty of demand n the domestc market N A A d Q d A A 0 N :aggregate elastcty of demand. Q :aggregate quantty of trade for goods.(demand sde) A :aggregate prce of trade for goods.(demand sde) A () (4)Own-prce elastcty of demand n the domestc market Q N A j 0 j j :domestc market share (n quantty) of the good made n country. (4) The descrpton of COMA model consults of Knjo(005) 6

7 (5)Cross-prce elastcty of demand n the domestc market Q j j N j j A 0 (5) Usng () and (5), the change n demand for the good made n country n response to a change n ts prce can be depcted as follows: d Q d d d (6) j j j j we also get the change n supply of goods made n country as follows: d Q s d (7) s s And then,the condton for market clearng can be wrtten as follows: d Q d (8) s Q s (9) s (0) Where s the equlbrum prce for goods made n country I (demand sde). If our study wants to apply COMA model to measure the effects of dumpng, we must measure the dumpng margn that s the dfference between the prce before dumpng and after t. DM FV DM :dumpng margn FV :the far prce : the prce of dumpng In order to dentfy each country, we use = domestc country, = exportng country A, and = exportng country B. If we assume the tarff (or dumpng) s 7

8 8 appled to the goods made n country, the equaton can be: # () If we assume 0 s, we obtan the soluton as follows: = 0 0 # () Where 0 det A () The possblty that ether 0 s or that det A = 0 cannot be excluded although these are unlkely outcomes. In the event that these values dd obtan, some modfcatons to the above analyss would be necessary. The # s the prce after tarff or dumpng.. The Applcatons of COMA Model COMA s a package of spreadsheets used to analyze trade-related gan or njure n specfc domestc ndustres as a trade polcy change. COMA Model s

9 appled n ths research to estmate the nfluence n UA, Canada and others, because t s easy to work. Huang and hn (997) appled t to estmate the effects n steel ndustry that was caused to antdumpng n Tawan. UITC(999) use ths model to analyze the mpacts n akstan wth export quota of 4 ndustry productons n U..A. Huang(006) also appled t to measure the damages of tea ndustry n Tawan. Lee (006) added a varable that descrbes market structure rangng from perfect competton to olgopoly, and appled t on H-beam ndustry n Tawan. Jung(004) appled COMA model n U..A. tomato ndustry Accordng ths study, to calculate the parameters of COMA model s very mport. The erfect competton s also assumed n the COMA model. Ths assumpton, however, may not be approprate n many cases under nvestgatons. Huang and hn(997) ponted out that mperfect market structure of many ndustres n actually, the erfect competton assumpton wll effect the output n measure. Hence, our research s to amend the COMA model that the UITC uses to analyze the mpact of unfar trade to a specfc domestc ndustry. Ths research s dfferent research of lterature wth above. We apply t to measure the effects of ant-dumpng duty wth dfferent duty. To fnd the optmal duty whch can make less to our socal welfare loss or more advantage to the ndustry. o the research path s lke fgure. 9

10 Input parameters The damages of ndustry causng by dumpng COMA Model:Tarff Model The analyss of optmal tarff COMA Model: rce Dumpng Model Appled ant-dumpng duty Recover to the revenue before Recover to the prce before dumpng Recover to the output before dumpng Conclusons and uggestons Fgure The structure of our paper and study path 0

11 Ⅳ. The Emprcal Analyss of Optmal Antdumpng Dutes 4. The tudy Case The towel ndustry s the labor-ntensve ndustry. Many frms nvest to other countres whch cause of the hgh labor cost and the land cost n Tawan. To compare the value of product, the frms producton reduces year by year. The product value only has. hundred mllon n 007 and less than 99. After trade lberalzng, the product cost n Chna s lower than n Tawan, so towel ndustry n Tawan can t compete wth Chna towel frms, more serous fall n output declne. Thus the hypothess of based on models and ndustral propertes, select case study on the contnent as a towel. The suspect and product H code and the export-mport goods classfcaton column and tarffs s and The survey perod s from January 00 to 0 eptember 005. The survey fndngs dentfy suspects, the product s ndeed n manland Chna on Tawan-related ndustres of damage caused, resultng n real terms snce June 006 to ts mposton of ant-dumpng dutes 04. %. 4. To Calculate the Input arameters Above all, we must calculate many nput parameters to measure the njures of a ndustry n COMA model. Here, we explan how to calculate that parameters.. Elastcty of supply and demand: We use the data that gets from Burea of Foregn Trade and Department of tatstcs Mnstry of Economcs Affars to measure the elastcty of supply, the elastcty of demand, and the substtute elastcty between mport goods and domestc goods. The perod of data s from January on 00 to eptember on 005. Our study assumes the functons estmate each elastcty functon s log-lnear.. Ths research uses as each parameter s calculaton base, and the formulatonof elastcty was usng nformaton from: mport data from Customs statstcal nformaton; export country s producton amount and market prce from ITC s Industry Injury Investgaton Report; Department of tatstcs (MOEA) Industry roducton Database s sales and producton related nformaton, assumng each functons are log-lnear functons usng loop formulaton, n order to arrve at the value of each elastcty. Due to the fact that the focus of ths research s the formulaton and comparson of ndustry njury, the actual procedure of formulaton

12 of each parameter wll not be descrbed n detal. formulaton s presented n Table as below: Only the output of the Table The Input parameters n COMA Model Input arameter Value of arameter Input arameter Name From (Low) To (Hgh) Unadjusted Margn ubsttutablty of specfc 04 Domestc roduct and unfar.4.4 Import roducts Domestc Market hare of specfc ubsttutablty of specfc Domestc roducts 0. Domestc roduct and far Import roducts.4.4 Domestc Market hare of unfar roducts 6.75 ubsttutablty of Dumpng and far Import roducts.4.4 Average Tarff 0.5 Elastcty of Aggregate Demand Transportaton Cost's Rato to c..f. rce of unfar Import roducts 8. Elastcty of specfc Domestc roduct upply Domestc Equpment Utlzaton Rate 4.75 Elastcty of unfar roducts upply Domestc Content 5 ubsttutablty of specfc Domestc roduct and unfar Import roducts The Effects of Dumpng Based on the above assumptons, and combnng other assumptons regardng each product s prce elastcty of aggregate demand; prce elastcty of lke-knd domestc product and non-dumpng mported products, ths secton would go through the actual emprcal analyss. However, before performng the smulaton, we must understand the 8 scenaros set by the COMA model, and the desgn of these scenaros s shown n Table. Due to the uncertanty of the varables n the COMA model, an nterval of nput parameters s used (e.g. elastcty of aggregate demand s from 5 to 0, so on so forth). Assume there are 8 scenaros n ths emprcal study and the varables are dentcal.

13 Table The scenaros of COMA Model scenaros scenaro scenaro scenaro scenaro4 scenaro5 scenaro6 scenaro7 scenaro8 Elastctes of substtuton Dom/Unfar Imports: Dom/Far Imports: Unfar/Far Imports: Domestc upply Elast: Far Import upply Elast: Unfar Import upply Elast: Aggregate Demand Elast: Table Estmated Impact of Dumpng by COMA Mode Item\scenaro Estmated Impact of Dumpng on Tawan Market scenaro scenaro scenaro scenaro4 scenaro5 scenaro6 scenaro7 scenaro8 Domestc rce -4.4% -8.% -.7% -.5% -9.0% -4.% -9.6% -9.9% Domestc Output -5.5% -7.6% -.6% -.9% -8.6% -5.8% -5.8% -5.% Domestc Revenue -6.% -40.8% -4.% -6.% -4.% -5.% -4.8% -.6% Domestc hare -0.7% -.% -0.9% -.% -.7% -.0% -.0% -.% Unfar Import hare.45% 4.95%.55% 4.95% 7.85%.05% 8.05%.5% Far hare -.6% -.6% -.6% -.6% -6.% -9.0% -6.0% -8.9% Capacty Utlzaton -.85% -6.85% -0.5% -0.95% -4.55% -8.85% -.45% -.75% Estmated Impact of Dumpng on Imports Far Import rce -0.9% -6.4% -.% -.% -6.% -.% -8.5% -9.0% Far Import Output -0.7% -9.9% -.% -4.% -5.9% -9.5% -8.4% -7.% Far Import Revenue -7.% -4.4% -4.4% -6.4% -45.% -5.0% -6.% -4.6%

14 Based on the above assumptons, the smulaton results of the analyss are lsted n table, and table. It s obvous from that chart that: dumpng does have a negatve mpact on the domestc ndustry. The mpact n perfectly competton market s greater to quantty than prce, because the frms n perfectly competton market are the prce takers. It would cause the domestc market prce to drop between.5% to 9%, and lower producton by.6% to 6.6%, for a total mpact to the ndustry of between 4.% to 5.%. Under the 8 smulated scenaros, the changes n parameters n the charts show that smulated results from the COMA model are more easly nfluenced by the prce elastcty of aggregate demand. Assumng everythng else stays the same (meanng other nput parameters are dentcal), when prce elastcty of aggregate demand s changed from 0.% to.%, ts mpact to domestc ndustry profts s -6.% and 4.%, respectvely (detals are n scenaros and ). Therefore the greater the prce elastcty of aggregate demand, the more the customers demand for towel ndustry (ncludng both domestc and mported products) wll be mpacted, and the more efectvely t can nulfy mported products threat to replace domestc lke-knd products. 4.4 Dscusson of the Optmal Ant-dumpng Duty Accordng to our results(table 4), under present ant-dumpng duty rate, collectng ant-dumpng duty attaned the goal of protecton for towel frms, thus the prce of output wll ncrease 5.6%, the quanttes wll ncrease 8.9%, and the revenue of ndustry wll ncrease 96.7%. The total welfare loss attans 9,900 mllon NT dollars whch s.5 tmes of producer gan. In other words, dumpng behavor caused.5 NT dollars loss to the towel producers. However, present duty rate s ether optmal for ts excessve duty rate, thus the napproprate duty rate damage more to consumer surplus and socal welfare. We try to recover ther prce level, output level, and revenue level before dumpng actvtes. When the duty rate s 86.%, 96.5%, and 75.%, we can make t. And the socal welfare loss wll be,600 mllon NT dollars,,00 mllon NT dollars, and,00 mllon NT dollars. Our study found out a lower ant-dumpng duty rate by smulatng varous duty rates to result frms to attan the orgnal prce, producton and proft whch shows that there exsts overestmaton on duty rate f dependng on the net of 4

15 dumpng. Lmted to the elastcty of supply and demand of towel ndustres, the lowest ant-dumpng duty rate appears when ndustres recovered ther orgnal proft level and the hghest duty rate appears when ndustres recovered ther orgnal producton level. From the above, we concluded that settng ant-dumpng duty rate must evaluates the depth of damage of domestc frms prmarly and depends on the range of loss from dumpng behavor nstead of dependng the net of dumpng merely. The decson of ant-dumpng duty rate should examne consumers preferences (elastcty of demand) and producton cost of domestc ndustres (elastcty of supply) smultaneously. 5

16 Table 4. The Effect of welfare and output under dfferent ant-dumpng duty Tarff rate 75.% Tarff rate 86.% Tarff rate 96.5% Item/ant-dumpng Appled rate (return to (return to (return to duty 04.% orgnal revenue orgnal prce orgnal output level) level) level) Estmated mpact on domestc ndustry rce(%) 5.60%.% 4.4% 7.% Quantty(%) 8.90%.% 4.0% 5.5% Revenue(%) 96.70% 6.% 4.7% 46.9% Tawan roducton Tawan Consumpton Employment Domestc Market hare 9.80% 8.% 8.4% 8.5% Import Market hare 70.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.5% Change n Value of Tawan roducton $44,8,60 $9,4,788 $05,54,5 $8,464,89 Estmated mpact on mports rce(%) 6.0% 4.% 48.7% 55.0% Quantty(%) -.0% -0.% -.6% -.7% Revenue(%) 70.00% 7.4%.5% 5.% Change n Quantty of Imports(%) Change n Value of Imports(NT$) $48,88,7 $88,0,07 $6,5,447 $4,00,97 Overall mpact on Tawan economy Change n Natonal Income(NT$) -$99,86,946 -$,09,56 -$6,89,05 -$,779,9 Gan to roducers (NT$) $87,,7 $0,76,09 $5,760,65 $40,440,854 Tarff Revenue(NT$) $66,99,60 $54,07,64 $90,49,47 $,44,08 Total Cost to Consumers(NT$) $80,904,89 $05,807,979 $5,98,46 $95,464,7 6

17 Ⅴ. Concluson Comparng wth relatve studes whch mostly focus on the mpact of dumpng behavor towards domestc ndustres, ncludng up-stream and down-stream frms and the effect of protecton of processng ant-dumpng measures, our study not only analyzed the mpact of ant-dumpng polcy from the aspect of socal welfare but also estmate the optmal tax rate from the aspect of margn of ant-dumpng duty to allow for the beneft of domestc ndustres and of consumers n order to acheve the maxmzed socal welfare. In ths paper, we appled COMA model to analyze the mpact of dumpng behavor towards towel market n Tawan and further smulate the optmal tax rate under the above crcumstance. Accordng to our results, under present ant-dumpng tax rate, collectng ant-dumpng duty attaned the goal of protecton for towel frms, thus dumpng behavor ndeed brought negatve effects to Tawan towel ndustres. The total welfare loss attans 9,900 mllon NT dollars whch s.5 tmes of producer gan. In other words, dumpng behavor caused.5 NT dollars loss to the towel producers. However, present duty rate s ether optmal for ts excessve duty rate, thus the napproprate tax rate damage more to consumer surplus and socal welfare. Our study found out a lower ant-dumpng duty rate by smulatng varous duty rates to result frms to attan the orgnal prce, producton and proft whch shows that there exsts overestmaton on duty rate f dependng on the net of dumpng. Lmted to the elastcty of supply and demand of towel ndustres, the lowest ant-dumpng duty rate appears when ndustres recovered ther orgnal proft level and the hghest duty rate appears when ndustres recovered ther orgnal producton level. From the above, we concluded that settng ant-dumpng duty rate must evaluates the depth of damage of domestc frms prmarly and depends on the range of loss from dumpng behavor nstead of dependng the net of dumpng merely. The decson of ant-dumpng duty rate should examne consumers preferences (elastcty of demand) and producton cost of domestc ndustres (elastcty of supply) smultaneously. 7

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