Pretrial Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 Pretrial Risk Assessment JUSTICE EVIDENCE LEGAL PRINCIPLES STANDARDS One Element of Effective Pretrial Programming THEORY PARTNERSHIP PRACTICE RESULTS

2 American courts process millions of criminal cases a year. Each requires a judicial officer to determine if a defendant should be released or detained pending trial. This is one of the most important decisions in criminal case processing, however, most judicial officers do not have the information nor appropriate release and detention options available to make the best bail decision. Moreover, most systems lack the structure needed to monitor released defendants, screen detained defendants regularly for release eligibility, and safeguard individual rights and community safety.

3 Essential Elements 1. Guiding principle of decisions based on risk reduction 2. Release options following arrest a) Citation in lieu of arrest b) Elimination of bond schedules c) Diversion to non-criminal alternatives 3. Statutory presumption of nonfinancial release and availability of detention without bail 4. Speedy criminal case screening 5. Defense counsel at initial appearance 6. Dedicated Pretrial Services Agency a) Risk assessment b) Sequential review of release/detention eligibility c) Risk-based supervision d) Performance measurement

4 Decision Making at the Pretrial Stage Goal: To reasonably assure Community Safety and Court Appearance Maximize Release for appropriate defendants Evidence: Most pretrial defendants present low to moderate risks of failure pretrial Poor matching of supervision levels to risk levels may increase failure Low to moderate level conditions are effective in addressing FTA risk Measuring performance is essential to improvement

5 Risk Assessment High functioning pretrial justice systems use validated risk criteria and assessments to gauge individual defendant s suitability for release or detention pending trial. The assessment is empirically based and locally validated to be predictive of appearance and safety. Jurisdictions promote universal screening prior to initial appearance for setting of bail. Separate risk instruments also may be used to determine the likelihood of new violent offenses, domestic violence charges, substance use disorders and mental health needs, as reasonable.

6 Static Dynamic History of FTA Substance Abuse Previous Felony Convictions Residence Previous Incarcerations Employment Pending Charges Previous Misdemeanor Convictions

7 States that encourage courts to use the results of risk assessment tools in making pretrial release decisions: Colorado Connecticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Kansas Kentucky Maine Oklahoma South Carolina Virginia

8 Pretrial Risk Assessment - Allegheny Pretrial risk assessments used; Allegheny County locally validated assessment PSA-Court, LJAF nationally validated risk assessment Allegheny Risk Assessment validated locally in 2006 and re-validated in 2012 Uses both static and dynamic factors PSA-Court Risk Assessment nationally validated and currently being used by approximately 30 jurisdictions. Risk factors released but not publicly available Uses just static factors

9 Risk Factors Risk Factor FTA Re-arrest 1. Age at current arrest * * 2. Valid license * 3. Issuing state * 4. Education (years) * 5. Currently in school * 6. Number of prior arrests * * 7. Number of prior FTAs * 8. Number of prior felony convictions * 9. Number of prior Misdemeanor convictions * 10. Number of pending charges * * 11. Age at first arrest * * 12. Current CJS status * * 13. Person charge * 14. Property charge * * 15. Public order charge * * 16. Drug charge * * 17. Traffic charge * *

10 Allegheny County Pretrial Risk Assessment - Failure to Appear Allegheny Risk Assessment - FTA Proposed FTA (flight risk) instrument weights Age at Incident (continuted) 19 yrs or younger 4 20 to 25 yrs 3 26 to 35 yrs 2 # of pending charges 36 to 45 yrs yrs or older Valid License 2 or more 5 No 1 Age at First Arrest Yes 0 Missing 0 Issuing State 16 and younger 2 Missing 0 17 to 25 1 PA 1 26 and older 0 Other 10 Current CJS Status Education (Years) None 0 10 yrs and less 0 Parole/Probation 1 11 years 3 Pretrial Release 3 12 years 2 Person charge 13 yrs and more 1 No 0 Missing 0 Yes 2 Currently in School Property charge No 2 No 0 Yes 0 Yes 8 # of Prior Arrests Public Order Charge 0 0 No 0 1 to 4 3 Yes 3 5 to 9 4 Drug charge 10 or more 5 No 0 # of Prior FTAs Yes Traffic charge 1 7 No 0 2 or more 13 Yes 4

11 Allegheny Risk Assessment - NCA Proposed re-arrest (public safety) instrument weights Age at Incident (continued) 19 yrs or younger 4 20 to 25 yrs 3 26 to 35 yrs 2 36 to 45 yrs 1 Age at First Arrest 46 yrs or older 0 Missing 0 Number of Prior Arrests 16 and younger to to and older 0 5 to 9 4 Current CJS Status 10 or more 5 None 0 # of prior Felony convictions Parole/Probation Pretrial Release Property charge 2 2 No 0 3 or more 3 Yes 1 # of prior Misd convictions Public Order Charge 0 0 No Yes Drug charge 3 or more 3 No 0 # of pending charges Yes Traffic charge 1 2 No 0 2 or more 5 Yes 2

12 Allegheny Risk Assessment NCA 1 NCA 2 NCA 3 NCA 4 NCA 5 NCA 6 FTA 1 ROR ROR ROR Report by Phone Report in person No release FTA 2 ROR ROR ROR Report by Phone Report in person No release FTA 3 ROR ROR Report by Phone Report in person Report in person No release FTA 4 Report by Phone Report by Phone Report in person Report in person Report in person No release FTA 5 Report by Phone Report by Phone Report in person Report in person Report in person No release FTA 6 Report by Phone Report by Phone Report in person Report in person Report in person No release

13 PSA Court Risk Assessment Risk Factors 1. Age at current arrest 2. Current violent offense Current violent offense & 20 years old or younger 3. Pending charge at the time of the offense 4. Prior misdemeanor conviction 5. Prior felony conviction Prior conviction (misdemeanor or felony) 6. Prior violent conviction 7. Prior failure to appear in the past two years 8. Prior failure to appear older than two years 9. Prior sentence to incarceration

14 Allegheny Risk Assessment v PSA Court Currently using Allegheny RA in central booking approximately 65% of all criminal filings PSA Court RA being used in the district magistrates office Running the PSA Court in the background for all Allegheny RA s completed Will begin to look at predictive value of each tool in approximately 6 months

15 Sequential Review of Release/Diversion Eligibility 1. Screening, assessment and recommendations at multiple decision points from initial appearance to adjudication. 2. Subsequent screening, assessment and recommendation that focus on new or updated information about the defendant. 3. Recommendations appropriate to newly assessed risk level. 4.Restrictions against conditions more stringent than the defendant s risk level suggests to encourage release. 5. Changes in supervision levels (both more or less restrictive) as a defendant s record of court appearance, arrest-free behavior and condition compliance warrants.

16 Risk-Based Supervision Supervision levels tied to assessed risk levels greatly improve outcomes. Conversely, improper supervision produces poor outcomes and wastes resources. (The risk principle ). According to available research, effective pretrial supervision includes: Notification to defendants of upcoming court dates Early and meaningful responses to defendant conduct Notification to the Court of defendant conduct and the possible need for supervision adjustment Supporting Standards: NAPSA Release Standards 3.2 and 3.5 NAPSA Diversion/Intervention Standard 5.3 ABA Standard

17 Performance Measurement High-functioning pretrial systems collect and publish pretrial justice performance and outcome measures. At the least, these include: 1. Appearance Rate 2. Safety Rate

18 Appearance Rate by Risk Level Washington, DC 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Very Low Low Med High Very High Appearance FTA

19 Appearance Rate by Risk Level--Kentucky Chart Title 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Low 2-3 Low 4-5 Moderate 6-7 Moderate 8-9 High Appearance FTA

20 Safety Rate by Risk Level Washington, DC 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Very Low Low Medium High Very High Arrest-Free Rearrest

21 Safety Rate by Risk Level--Kentucky 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Low 2-3 Low 4-5 Moderate 6-7 Moderate 8-9 High Safety Rearrest

22 Appearance Rate by Risk Level--Allegheny 100% 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Low Moderate High Appearance FTA

23 Safety Rate by Risk Level--Allegheny 100% 90% 80% % 60% 50% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Low Moderate High Safety Re-arrest (non-violent offense) Re-arrest (violent offense)

24 Allegheny County: New Violent Criminal Activity Allegheny RA: The average new violent criminal activity at the pretrial stage for all released defendants is 5% PSA Court RA: Defendants with the violence flag had new violent criminal activity at a rate 2.4 times higher than defendants without the violence flag

25 Appearance Rate by Hearing Type-Allegheny 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% PH FA PTC Expeditied Docket Trial Sentencing Appearance FTA

26 Allegheny County $78.59 Pretrial Detention $10.32 Supervision by Pretrial Services

27 2015 PA Pretrial Survey of Counties 62 responses from Counties 37 Counties offer Pretrial Services with varying degrees of services 29 programs interview defendants 12 programs utilize a risk assessment 26 programs provide information to the Court 25 programs make supervision recommendations

28 2015 PA Pretrial Survey of Counties 36 programs offer varying degrees of pretrial supervision 21 programs track failure to appear rates 19 programs track re-arrest rates 29 programs participate in their counties CJAB

29 Risk Assessment Many public domain tools that can be used initially and then have locally validated Locally validated risk assessments all score on basically similar factors, it s the weight of the factors for individualized populations that determine the final score Education on risk assessments and best practices for pretrial in the criminal justice continuum is key