Item. Metro Contingency and Risk Management

Transcription

1 Item Metro Contingency and Risk Management April 19, 2012

2 Background SAFETEA-LU requires in Section 5309(d)4(A)i: The proposed [Grantee] project plan provides for the availability of contingency amounts that FTA determines to be reasonable to cover unanticipated cost increases 2

3 Metro Contingency and Risk Management Policies Applies to all Metro capital projects Consistent with Federal Guidelines Has been successfully used on Metro projects Contingency policy last presented to Construction Committee in June

4 Project Risk Project risk is the likelihood that a project outcome will vary from its original goal Goals are usually categorized as scope, cost and time Rarely does a project conclude with meeting all of its original goals; this indicates that risk exists in all projects Project risk is the sum of virtually an infinite number of possible events 4

5 Types of Risk DESIGN RISK Associated with the performance and variability of design-related activities MARKET RISK Effects of open market pricing of goods and services, as well as contract packaging strategies CONSTRUCTION RISK Related to the inevitable variability of project environment, including items such as weather, subsurface conditions and contractor performance 5

6 Elements of Risk Examples Include: Complexity of Project Completeness of Design Constructability Geotechnical Conditions Schedule System Integration Third Party Approvals Acts of God

7 Risk Mitigation Strategies Risk Avoidance Risk Transfer Risk Reduction Risk Acceptance 7

8 Risk Management Process Identifying risk situations for which outcomes are likely to vary in amounts that may significantly affect the project s goals Assessing the likelihood and magnitude of such variance Responding by developing plans for minimizing hazard and maximizing gain Managing the execution of those plans 8

9 Certainty and Uncertainty No Information Partial Information Complete Information Unknown unknowns Known Unknowns Knowns Scope of project risk assessment Total Uncertainty General Uncertainty Specific Uncertainty Total Certainty 9

10 Risk Review Project is re-evaluated at various phases of development to forecast potential risk reduction Alternatives Analysis Preliminary Engineering Final Design Procurement Construction Testing & Start-up Pre-revenue Operations Project Development Project Construction Operations Arrows indicate when a major risk review may occur 10

11 Cost Contingency Targets Percent Preliminary Engineering Phase Final Design Phase FFGA Award 100% Bid 50% Construction 11

12 Schedule Contingency FTA has established criteria for suggested minimum schedule contingency levels The targeted amount of schedule contingency, for the project as a whole, is 20% of the time from the start of final design to the start of revenue operations 12

13 Crenshaw/LAX Project Risk Management Geotechnical Risks for Design-Build Procurement Metro undertakes extensive soil boring program Metro establishes detailed performance requirements with well established monitoring and instrumentation procedures Independent evaluation by Tunnel Advisory Panel PE design development phase carries geotechnical analysis to a greater level compared to other disciplines. Metro establishes base line for assumptions and assumes responsibility for changed conditions 13

14 Crenshaw/LAX Project Other Risk Management Techniques Conduct formal risk assessments at prescribed intervals throughout design and construction phases Prepare a Risk Contingency Management Plan updated monthly Contractors participate in risk assessments during construction phase Integrated Project Management Office with colocation of key personnel Resolution of issues at lowest level of organizations with escalation ladder 14